Last year revenue Q4 higher because customer delayed shipment Q3 last year due to expensive shipping cost.

Q4 revenue drop simply because customer placed order earlier in Q3 to avoid missing Christmas and boxing day.

Hi Pinky, yes I recalled that. That was the best time to buy compares to now. It is when market get "shocked", "ambushed" (at fair bit of shareholders felt so) without being able to see one year ahead. Similar thing happened to FPI in the last quarter. You wanna make big profit, you gotta have guts during these "crisis" time (when there is no crisis but looks like there is a crisis). If we want to maximize our profit we should not just know how we think but also how other people think.

From 2014 to 2019, it started with a big drop of dividend in 2015 and then basically in a down trend till 2019. That's why I say dividend cannot be consistent and it depends on the earning. Dividend payout rate can be consistent as it has to adhere to the dividend policy but the amount is subject to change depends on earnings. I think this is a basic that we do not need to argue. And I think people are least interested in who pick up a stock at x price. At any price, there will be a buyer and seller, and ikan bilis like you and me is not going to be able to distort the volume. Unless you are big guy like EPF or a fund manager then only people are interested. However, fund manager doesn't talk like that.

I could be wrong, so does the technical signal. We are just here to share facts and opinion base on facts.

Technically also, the force going north has been loosing steam. It has tested the peak 3 times but couldn't get through. In a battle, if you charge 3 times and cannot break through enemy's line, you'd get exhausted and facing the difficulty to hold the line when the enemy charge back.

Dividend would not and will never be stable, because earning will be highly dependent on commodity price and cost which all of these are variables. What has been stable was the generosity of the board of directors and the major shareholder, I think. But however generous they are, still, what the shareholder is possible to reap still depends on those variables.

Buy or sell decision on a specific price should be based on many factor including one's portfolio and risk profile etc, etc, etc... It could be good for one person but bad for another. What we are discussing here is just all essential information and phenomenon observed, regardless whether or not it is a positive or negative to the share price. Individual investor should further analyse what is the best for them. I believe most of the investors prefer to have all the info or as much info as possible regardless of what decision they are going to make.

It takes 7 years for the newly planted trees to reach prime age. Central Banks in many countries including Malaysia will continue to raise interest rate. When interest rate goes up, cosy to hold inventories will be higher. This will discourage the cooking oil companies to keep stock in their warehouse, meaning they will delay the purchase, weakening short-term demand / selling price. Big consumers like Bangladesh, Pakistan are facing economy problem and this may reduce their purchasing power too. So there might be further down side to the 3500++ RM/Mt mentioned above.

Normally the share price reflects the future stock value rather than current value. While fertiliser price is in down trend, in short-term the fertiliser cost is not going down immediately because large plantation usually buy furtiliser via contract inked months if not a year earlier. Plus, the FCPO May 2024 has gone down to 3500++. Another cost, which is labour cost, unlike fertliser cost, will only go up and never come down. So future CPO price drop and labour cost increase may outweigh the fertiliser cost reduction. That's the risk of buying at current share price. Yes, we can get good dividend this year and maybe early next year too but what's next?

21 sen dividend per year will continue to be an amount that the company is at a comfortable position to pay for FY 2023. EPS will be definitely more than enough to cushion that. And the company is definitely capable of paying a higher dividend.

Hi Gooman, how is this related to FPI?

Hi Ooi, ya they missed out coconut selling price for 2022. I tried to ask a local planter here they say wholesale price is RM 1.50 so probably the same or higher for UTDPLT as the quality might be higher and more bargaining power as a much bigger supplier. Of course I could write to them but I don't think they bother to answer because I tried to ask other questions before but received no reply. Maybe I didn't buy much enough of the shares. :)

Hi Pinky, I think probably because initially the profitability of palm oil plantation is higher than coconut plantation and it takes time to switch more back to coconut and the newly planted area should be close to the existing estate in order to be cost effective. Also, if coconut requires more labour it also discourage the company to do so when in the past years facing labour shortage.

Hi Ooi & GS, thanks for the info. Then here are my findings/question:
1. Sime Darby said they now 1 worker for 15 Ha and want to push up to 17 Ha. Quite unbelievable as they are not so profitable. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/658064
2. If we sum up the number of guest worker in Malaysia and PTSSS (3231 + 1151 = 4382) divide by matured planted area for both palm oil and coconut plantation (42789 + 3847 = 46636 Ha) give us 9.4 Ha, which is less than 12 Ha. That means, coconut plantation is more labour intensive than palm oil plantation.

So you should instead appreciate that when you read the minute, if you really did read it.

Actually I did read the minute before I posted my question. So please don't simply comment. Not only that, I did attend the AGM and asked a few questions.

In UTDPLT how many Ha of matured palm oil a worker could cover?

Hi Observatory, cant expect production output increase because the matured planted area of coconut slightly reduced. Total planted area however remains the same.

Hi Ooihk, because I like to interact with other bright investors and get their thoughts too. And I think this is one of the many purposes to have this forum.

Hi Ahlian, it is definitely more than 10% but less than 15%. According to my research, profit margin could be considerably larger. And yes Ahlian, I also found that coconut price (wholesale price) is very stable over the years. The cost and earnings from the coconut plantation helps to answer many questions in my mind before and that's why I asked. Ahlian, mind to share the average cost of small planter in Malaysia to manage a single Ha of matured palm oil plantation, including labour, fertiliser, fuel and everything? Thanks.

Hi Ooihk899, it could be significant depending on the selling price and cost. If not significant utdplt won't bother to plant.

Anyone know the average cost and selling price for one coconut? Couldn't find in the annual report. Appreciate if someone is able to find out.

Does anyone know Mr. Shih Chao Yuan chinese name?

Hi Peace99, the most difficult part is when some of the lab workers from overseas cant stand durian smell. And if the top management has to check the quality of the fruit personally to qualify the seedling but fainted due to the unique aroma. It may be a great torture to them.

Haha. Good guess

I think Q4 profit will be very close to Q3, maybe slightly more. Let's see.

Hi Pinky, you visited the plantation before? Need special request? They arrange the plantation tour every AGM pre-Covid years? Normally they arrange before or after the meeting?

Dear All, this year AGM will be held at Dewan Sanmarka Orang India. Any of you attended the AGM before? Was the previous AGM held at the same place? Would you please share some experience in the past AGMs. I might want to attend but it is a bit far from my place.

And it is an open secret that these speculating insiders are not the core investors (the trading volume tells). Therefore serious investors would not simply buy and sell and react in this situation. Those who are participating actively in the trading today, they are not actually the one or important roles that decide whether or not this company will thrive or doing worse.

Unless a company is a total piece of shit. Otherwise, insiders will exploit both the greed and fear of other investors. Yes they dump, but they pick up too.

I don't think so. Insiders are picking up at 3.xx. Who's dare or motivated to hold and turn the tide at current situation? Value investor like to wait further, only informed and organised large capital has the insight at what level it should get into the market and they are competing with each other to enter at this price. So that's why I think the storm is over.

I think the storm is over. Very soon a new cycle will begin.

Goody99, you're right they do not do detailed explanation. But they do mention forex loss of 13 mil in Q4. Net profit of Q4 is 8 mil. So if there were no forex loss then the profit would have been 21 mil which is still an healthy level. Also, if you divided the tax by profit before tax you'll get 39% tax rate while cukai makmur only 33%. This was only around 25% in Q3 and Q3 already accumulated more than 100 mil profit before tax. So I think FPI under estimate the tax payable in Q3 and some of these tax has to be paid in Q4, and that's why 39% in Q4. If you do the same math for Q3, the EPS disregarding the 18 mil forex gain is only around 10 sen. So I think these findings should be sufficient to calm yourself. 40% of revenue but profit (without considering forex) drops only 25% QoQ so you know the most profitable business stay.

@Uptrending, Q4 revenue dip is due to following main reasons I think: (1) switch of product from low margin product to high margin product (low margin product is normally come with huge order but low profit). That's why if you don't count FOREX lost there is actually 8.xx sen per share earning in Q4. (2) festive season in Q4 will result in lesser output (3) back log (accumulated due to difficulty to get container and and high shipping cost) has been cleared quite a lot in Q3 so Q4 revenue would not be as much as Q3. That also explained the improved inventory level. Also, inflation peaked in Q3 last year so there will be inventory value adjustment in Q4. Therefore I think EPS 35 sen per year is sustainable in 2023 and whether or not it is able to make more I guess will depend on other external factors. The following growth will be depending on the trend of smart home, application of IoT and AI, home theater (see the trend of Netflix subscriber, for example).

Insiders have the advantage to react faster. However, not everyone is smart and be able to read the meaning behind the figures. Some of them might have done the wrong decision too quickly due to this advantage. The real world is full of fun.

Hi Uptrending, looking at the figures I feel that Wistron is pulling away some order which they thought not to be shared for long-term but only temporary coorperation according to agreement. However, it seems to me that FPI is able to replace these orders with higher margin product from other customers, which is a good thing that we should be happy to see it (normally only strong product command a higher margin and strong product usually come with a brand owned by an excellent company).

I don't think so. Probably a temporary setback due to fear and confusion. But price will quickly stable between 3.30 and 3.50. If you study back a few of previous quarter report, you'll find out that earning without counting forex loss or gain is quite stable in the range of 7.xx to 10.xx sen per share, including 2022 Q4. Those who studied carefully won't get surprised and do panic sell. But there are groups of people who thought 12.xx and 17.xx sen quarter EPS were purely driven by customer order and projected very high growth rate and rate the stock at RM 5++ or RM 7++ might be caught in the trap that they setup for themselves. These people might be panic due to over position in this stock and got into a panic. The shares will change hand from these people to conservative investors.

Some people are scared. There are lots of small shareholders in this counter and therefore price is more volatile. Current price is fair if one wants to buy, althought not "wonderful". I think the chances of price getting lower is smaller compare to the possibility of going up further. Upside opportunity is higher than downside risk.

Investors have been caucious these few days, which is good for healthy share price growth in future.

I think Q4 profit will be very close to Q3, maybe slightly more. Let's see.

It is not impossible to achieve by end of 2023 or early 2024 but a bit challenging for now.

If EPS Q4 could achieve close to 10 sen or much better than I have predicted, the price may reach RM 4 and above.

Target price RM 16.50 in next 3 years.

Current price may not be attractive if cukai makmur continue...

Yes, possible

The shallow dip of price despite moderately high volume shows that there are solid support to the price and that support is not likely from unimformed shareholders because this is not a hot stock. In other words, I suspect that the support come from "smart money".

Hi Lionel Messi, I estimated the Q2 EPS by using my own model and assumptions. With that level of estimated / true EPS, I think it is good to hold and perhaps slightly increase the stakeholding when the price dip to 8.70. This is because:
i) the dividend is in the up trend
ii) earning has basically recover post-Covid 19
iii) the PE is still cheap probably because of investor's memory about the big impact during MCO but MCO has came to past and this one-off incident/effect is gone and investor's confidence will recover after another 1 or 2 quarter showing steady / solid revenue and earnings. When this happen, PE and share price will improve to above PE 10
iv) I'll further improve my model of performance estimation based on latest quarter report and I feel that there might be positive factors towards next quarter earning in the brew.

On 30th Jan I predicted Q2 EPS 25 sen, now the actual result revealed is 23.38 sen. Should be quite close right? :)

Could it be a news purposely done to encourage investors to sell? So far it is just a plan, could be called off anytime soon right? Based on technical chart, this had triggered fear and the price once dip to nearly 8.70 at large volume but very soon got a strong rebounced, is this a war between the uninformed and informed? Look at the price movement and volume, I suspect someone is trying to control the price slightly below 9 by buying more but selling less but intense at the closing time. The purpose of doing this I guess is to collect the shares at below 9.