Forecasts. Maintained. CPO is expected to trade between RM3,500 to RM4,000 per MT but lower for TSH (at RM3,000-3,500 per MT) as most of its CPO is sold at Indonesian prices. However, FY24-25F margins are likely to improve compare to FY23 on lower input costs such as fertiliser and fuel. The weakness in palm kernel (PK) prices should also see modest recovery FY24 as buyers need to restock even though the underlying market is likely to stay soft.

INDONESIA PALM OIL EXPORT DUTY AND LEVY (JAN – DEC 2023)
LV = Levy (in USD/MT)
DT = Duty (in USD/MT)
https://katadataku.com/indo-export-duty/duty-2023/

3800 posts
Posted by Sslee > Jan 29, 2024 12:12 PM | Report Abuse X

As a fund manager, should you timing the market and you enter point or should you working hard to constantly uncover the gem from the rocks?

TTB had been caught resting on his laurels or worst sleeping on the job and does not deserved to call his icapital as value investing or the big paycheck. Full stop.

By the way TTB totally miss the glove super bull in 2020.

TTB has been telling every tom, dick and harry since 2014 that the market going to crash and for sure one fine day market will crash but when?

By the way even in bull or bear market you can still pick winners that have sudden big catalyst that will significiently increase the net profit. (Case in point Ytlpower, Nvidia)

“To know whether a market is bullish or bearish, you see what kind of fools are around. In a bear market, the old fools are in the market. These are the seasoned people who have made mistakes. Today, there are a lot of new fools around,” he says.

On a more serious note, Tan expects global markets to fall drastically . All his funds presently have high cash levels. He bases this view purely on stretched valuations.

“Look at the last 12 months. The S&P 500 is now trading at a price earnings ratio of 20 times PE. What is more significant is that if you look at the Schiller cyclically-adjusted 10-year PE, it is now at 26 times.

“The last three times it was at this level was in 1929, 1999 and 2007 to 2008,” Tan says.

“When valuations are high, anything can be a trigger, and just like that, people will sell. And when markets are overvalued, you get bad returns.”

Yes Philip also learnt from the market crash and now a successful investor.

Did not know it was so easy to make money in 1990s.

But I heard Philip lose his shirt, pant, underwear, sock and shoes betting on Halim Saad and Ting Pek Khing stocks.

TheContrarian,
Since bankers and brokers cap the borrowing, margin and some even upfront money to buy those hing PE and price to book stocks. Every undervalued stocks will have their turn where some big and small sharks goreng up the share price.

Anyone know why TTB suffered this psychological prolonged fear of adverse macro events, and keeping large amount of fund un-invested. From year 2013 to 2021, the fund manager kept most of the assets of icap in cash?

In 2021 got accounting profit from deemed disposal gain due to Inari PP 10% inari share at RM 3.10

So far this year already sold 10 million Inari and 100 million M&A shares.
So if sell another 30 million Inari share then most likely recorded profit for Insas financial end 30/6/2024.

Like Inno many of Jayatiasa plantation land is rented from Sarawak government or related parties.

The rental average rate is RM10/mt to RM15/mt FFB

PETALING JAYA: Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd (JTH) is acquiring a 55% stake in Wealth Houses Development Sdn Bhd (WHD), which owns a 5,967 ha leasehold land in Sarawak, for RM52.3mil.

By the way can Lee Hock Leong make profit start selling PMcorp in 2020?

LEE HOCK LEONG
REPORT DATE STOCK NAME NAME IN ANNUAL REPORT NUMBER (RATIO)
10/29/21 (2021) MKLAND 8893 ALLIANCEGROUP NOMINEES (TEMPATAN) SDN BHD PLEDGED SECURITIES ACCOUNT FOR LEE HOCK LEYONG 2117000 (0.175%)
10/30/20 (2020) INSAS 3379 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Pledged Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong (E-PDG/SAN) 3920000 (0.59%)
10/30/20 (2020) PMCORP 4081 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong 2394900 (0.34%)
10/31/19 (2019) PMCORP 4081 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong 12796000 (1.81%)
10/31/19 (2019) INSAS 3379 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Pledged Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong (E-PDG/SAN) 2661000 (0.4%)
10/31/18 (2018) PMCORP 4081 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong 12796000 (1.81%)
10/31/18 (2018) INSAS 3379 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Pledged Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong (E-PDG/SAN) 2650000 (0.4%)
10/31/17 (2017) INSAS 3379 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Pledged Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong (E-PDG/SAN) 2530500 (0.38%)
10/31/17 (2017) PMCORP 4081 Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd – Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong 12796000 (1.81%)
Klse shareholdings by LEE HOCK LEONG in various shares listed in Bursa Malaysia. Please remind that these data extracted from yearly annual report and may consists of data error. For investing study purpose only.

TheContrarian,
I did not sold my Insas in 2021 because my TP then is RM 1.50

But Insas 2020 and 2021 annual report indicate Lee Hock Leong sold his Insas and bought Insas-WC in 2021.

As at 5 October 2020
THIRTY LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS
21. Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 3,920,000 0.59
- Pledged Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong (E-PDG/SAN)

AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
THIRTY LARGEST WARRANTS HOLDERS
4. Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 18,101,200 5.46
- Pledged Securities Account for Lee Hock Leong (E-PDG/SAN)

Jayatiasa as at 31/9/2023
RM'000
Cash and cash equivalents 201,202
Current Liabilities
Loans and borrowings 56,310
Non-current Liabilities -
Loans and borrowings 264,137

Jayatiasa should be able to pare down the borrowings further.

I consider jayatiasa as turnaround growth (FFB production is growing significiently) company that start to pay dividend. Hence it share price start at a very low base compare to TAAAN and SOP.

Allow me to repeat, you cannot charge capital investment as expense in P&L statement.

So if Jaystiasa make RM 250 million NP than the free cash inflow from operation is RM 250 plus RM 140 depreciation and amortisation. Total RM 390 million.

From this cash inflow then company can spend this cash inflow in loans repayment, capital investment, paying dividend and etc.

Jayatiasa depreciation and amortisation per quarter about RM 35 million.
So per year depreciation and amortisation about RM 140 million. Since Net profit is after depreciation and amortisation hence you can expect addition cash of RM 140 million per year.

Please stop the misinformation the cash use for acquisition is not classified as expense in P&L statement.
EPS is 6.9 sen regardless of any cash used in acquisition of assets or PPE

Cash Flows used in Investing Activities RM '000
Acquisition of subsidiaries, net of cash - (52,209) -

Jayatiasa,
What will be next quarter EPS and dividend?

FFB production
Quarter end 31Dec 2023
345,778
Quarter end 30 Sept 2023
359,740
Quarter end 30 June 2023
224,649

Average Monthly MPOB CPO spot price 2023
Jan to Dec 2023:
3,922.00
3,908.00
4,159.50
4,217.50
3,795.50
3,525.00
3,897.00
3,805.00
3,727.00
3,640.00
3,700.50
3,656.50

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=1Y&tahun=2023

SWKPLT (EPS 9.72c last Q), Annualized 38.88 cents, PE 5.6
SOP ( EPS last Q 10.62 cents) Ann 42 cents , PE 6.5
TAAN ( EPS 14.79 last Q), ann 0.60 , PE 6
All the above three companies have yield from 6 to 10 %

Jayatiasa
Last 2 quarter:
Quarter
Revenue
PBT
NP
NP to SH
NP Margin
ROE
EPS
DPS
NAPS
QoQ
YoY
30-Sep-2023 248,003 93,035 66,835 66,833 26.95% 4.57% 6.90 0.00 1.5100 11.26% 96.65%

30-Jun-2023 199,019 40,331 60,161 60,067 30.23% 4.34% 6.21 1.70 1.4300 489.93% 42.36%

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2024-01-28-story-h-190145875-Is_Icap_biz_still_worth_investing_kcchongnz.jsp

Poor performance of icap share price

In the first 26 months since listing, the fund obtained a total return more than 3 times that of the broad market. The fund manager of icap is definitely not a bad investor. The Achilles heel of the fund manager was psychological, his prolonged fear of adverse macro events, and keeping large amount of fund un-invested. From year 2013 to 2021, the fund manager kept most of the assets of icap in cash, instead of investing in shares as a fund manager supposed to do. In 2016, more than 70% of the assets of icap were kept as cash.

While icap kept much of its assets in cash, the broad FBMKLCI shot up from 864 points to 1887 points in 5 years from 2009 to 2014, and then some corrections due to the oil crisis. Then from 2016 to 2019, I remember it was a good time picking stocks in Bursa.

I personally had made good return during these periods. I believe, if icap was fully invested, which as a managed fund should do, its NAV would have grown a lot more.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2023-06-13-story-h-267899357-i3admin_pleasae_take_action_on_Mikecyc_abusive_and_cyber_sexual_harassm.jsp

Above is what I reported to i3 admin then. It seem something can never change.
So just ingnore him.

I already sold about 60%. Will keep the cash in trading account. Come Feb I will study the latest companies financial result and see any other stocks worth buying.

Nowadays for investment I only buy stocks that give dividend. By the way my trading stock Armada is doing well.

I start holding Insas since 2018 and make it to top 30 shareholders list in 2021 and 2022 but drop out of the list in 2023. I sold some as I found some other more attractive stocks.

Safety and strength in diversification.

Below what I posted on Jan 18 2024 for comparision.

Posted by Sslee > Jan 18, 2024 10:24 PM | Report Abuse X
Just for comparision: What do you think Jayatiasa fair price?
Jayatiasa
Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT)
Quarter end 31Dec 2023
345,778
Quarter end 30 Sept 2023
359,740
Quarter end 30 June 2023
224,649
Market Cap: 969 Million
NOSH: 974 Million
NAPS: RM 1.51
Share price: RM 0.995

Taaan
Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT)
Quarter end 31Dec 2023
No yet announce
Quarter end 30 Sept 2023
210,829
Quarter end 30 June 2023
143,071
Market Cap: 1,614 Million
NOSH: 445 Million
NAPS : RM 4.10
Share price: RM 3.63

SOP
Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT)
Quarter end 31Dec 2023
348,678
Quarter end 30 Sept 2023
352,149
Quarter end 30 June 2023
264,453
Market Cap: 2,377 Million
NOSH: 890 Million
NAPS: RM 3.86
Share price RM 2.67

Any chance TTB wake up one fine morning and be as magnanimous as PNB to propose a liquidation resolution for shareholders to decide whether to support or oppose the liquidation proposal during the next AGM?

Posted by stockraider > Jan 27, 2024 12:55 PM | Report Abuse
Why mike believe in a soorhaiiii counter like jaks leh ??

Always screwing minority shareholders with many cheap private placement, esos and stripping cash leh

I may at time have different in opinion with stockraider but I agree totally on what stockraider had to say about jaks. But allow me to add million of LTIP free grant jaks shares to ALP

Note: Stockraider must be a very happy man these days his bjland and Insas start moving maybe to the moon.

Stockraider remember to come back in 2026 and do what you did to Insas-WB in 2020.

Some year ago Musangking and me had a friedly competition his Jaks againt my Insas. We are neck to neck untill the end.

Last year someone compete with me his Jaks against my Insas-WC. Know what is the result?

MrFox,
I am also a billionaire in Indonesia Rupiah.

An owner of a prominent news media empire is casting undue influence on the financial and political state of Malaysia for his own personal monetary gain.

Sources within Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) revealed that Tong Kooi Ong, the owner of the Edge Group and The Malaysian Insider has taken a USD1.4 billion short position on the Ringgit through a proxy. The first transaction took place in August 2014 and subsequent short positions have been taken leading up to January 2015.

Tong Kooi Ong is no stranger to investments, notably during the last financial crisis, Tong took a similar short position with Rashid Hussein which resulted in a significant gain.

He is a former stockbroker, financial analyst and banker who founded and built Phileo Allied Berhad, one of the most successful and innovative financial banking groups in Malaysia in the 1990s. Phileo Allied Bank was subsequently taken over and merged with Maybank in 2000.

Sunday, 08 Jan 2023 7:51 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 8 — Tan Sri Tong Kooi Ong wants former Bank Negara assistant governor Datuk Abdul Khalid Murad to withdraw the statutory declaration (SD) he made back in 1999 where he accused the former of hiding billions of ringgit in ‘master accounts’ belonging to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Published February 2, 2015
KUALA LUMPUR — Billionaire Tong Kooi Ong yesterday sought to fend off allegations that he is involved in a US$1.4 billion (S$1.9 billion) bet against the ringgit, and denied claims he is engineering a crisis with the Malaysian currency for personal gain.

The media tycoon, who owns The Edge Media Group, which recently acquired news portal The Malaysian Insider, said Bank Negara Malaysia would have been aware of such speculation if the allegations were true and insisted that the central bank has not contacted him on the matter.

Tong will be rightfully billionaire (running Phileo Securities and Phileo Bank) if not caught in Asian Financial crisis 1998 and Political war between Tun M and Tun D against DSAI

Just a gentle reminder in stock market “everyone is out for themselves”

TheContrarian Another thing I wonder is if someone targets a company for a hostile takeover would he announce to everyone of what he thinks is the value of the target?
26/01/2024 10:56 PM

TheContrarian is right,
If I want to make a hostile or friendly take over I would have done it in 2020 when WB expired out of money or I and my PAC will start accumulate Insas silently and wait for WC expired in 2026 watching carefully what is DST and his PAC next move before I make my move for a take over.

Do you think Tong is so silly or is he a saint telling every tom, dick and harry that Insas is worth RM4.33 so that every tom, dick and harry rush in to buy Insas to price of RM 4.00 and then Tong announce a VGO at RM 4.33?

By the way the cat was caught holding 18million+ WC since 2021 and disappear from Insas forum when WC was trade below 18 sen and only reappear recently telling everyone he/she is THE MOST SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR holding multi-million WC shouting RM 6 and now RM 60 RINGGIT IS KAMBEEEEEEEEEEENNNGGGGG !!!

You should ask the cat what is his/her WC holding cost?
Very interest to see 2024 Insas annual report whether the cat still hold 18million+ WC.

TheContrarian,
I really do not know why no one dare to take over Insas from Dato' Sri Thong and PAC officially hold 32.96% Insas share?

Beginning of this year many banks & booking firms are not giving marginable value, cap the price or DF facilities for these stocks which are trading at very high PE & price to book. (Money upfront for buy order on those limitvdown stocks)

Insas with Low PE and Big price discount to book, presented a very attractive for big and small sharks to play contra trade and pocket the contra gain.

With recent 10 million Inari shares sold and 100 million M&A shares sold. Insas cash should increase by over RM 60+ million from the disposal when reporting quarter end 31/03/2024 financial result.

The question why Insas accumulate so much cash?
Next AGM I will ask for addition dividend.

As stated in Question 10, the Board will review and evaluate the financial performance, the availability of free cash and funding commitments of the Group & the Company and the global economic outlooks for the next 1 year before deciding any additional dividend that may be proposed and declared by the Company.

So far 10 million Inari shares sold and 100 million M&A shares sold.

Insas sold another 5 million Inari shares

[INARI] Change In Substantial Shareholder's Shareholding - INSAS BERHAD on 26-Jan-2024
Stock [INARI]: INARI AMERTRON BERHAD
Announcement Date 26-Jan-2024
Reference No CS2-17012024-00118
Substantial Shareholder's Particular:
Name INSAS BERHAD
Details of Changes:
Currency -
Date of Change Type Number of Shares
24-Jan-2024 Disposed 1,000,000
Registered Name M & A Nominee (Asing) Sdn Bhd for Media Lang Limited
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
23-Jan-2024 Disposed 2,000,000
Registered Name M & A Nominee (Asing) Sdn Bhd for Media Lang Limited
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
22-Jan-2024 Disposed 2,000,000
Registered Name M & A Nominee (Asing) Sdn Bhd for Media Lang Limited
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
Shares Ordinary shares
Reason Disposal of shares in the open market
Total no of securities after change
Direct (units) 0
Direct (%) 0.00
Indirect (units) 527,008,575
Indirect (%) 14.06
Total (units) 527,008,575
Total (%) 14.06
Date of Notice 26-Jan-2024

Not forgetting to mention one fella going every forum to slander people.

Derivatives
Night & Day Session
Night Session
NO NAME MONTH LAST DONE CHANGE VOL (`00) OI
1 FKLI Jan 2024 1,505.0000 +0.5000 29,387 66,247
2 FCPO Apr 2024 4,013.0000 +19.0000 26,239 79,062
3 FKLI Feb 2024 1,507.0000 +0.5000 21,452 25,715
4 FCPO May 2024 3,967.0000 +12.0000 9,432 46,214
5 FCPO Mar 2024 4,023.0000 +20.0000 5,059 29,173
6 FCPO Jun 2024 3,905.0000 +6.0000 3,803 23,743
7 FCPO Jul 2024 3,841.0000 +2.0000 3,695 26,438
8 FCPO Feb 2024 4,012.0000 +15.0000 1,330 5,096
9 FKLI Mar 2024 1,493.0000 +0.5000 454 3,529
10 FKLI Jun 2024 1,494.5000 +1.5000

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/market_data_overview
You can go to above link and see the forward month selling price

At least one fella tell you how many he already sold another telling you he still got how many to sell, the one and only one THE MOST SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR holding multi-million WC shouting RM 6 and now RM 60 RINGGIT IS KAMBEEEEEEEEEEENNNGGGGG !!!

So isn't that helping everyone in Insas forum to make their decision to buy, to sell or to hold?

It is hard trying to be funny because many in i3 do not have sense of humour.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/5108.jsp?type=last10fy
NAPS:
31/05/14: RM 3.05
31/05/23: RM 3.40

It was the Maybank analyst that cause the spike in price of AAX.
But it you look into his analyst report he is selectively using some figures/misinformation to form his own fact. (Like Thai AAX will contribute toward AAX profit soon)

AAX owns 49% of Thai AirAsia X, both were bankruptcy companies due to covid 19.
AAX bulldoze thro' debts restructure of paying 0.5 sen for every dollar owed and then arm twisting Bursa SC to uplift AAX from PN17.

Meanwhile Thai AirAsia X go into business rehabilitation plan that begin a planned process of repaying debts and refund payments to passengers impacted by the inevitable cancellation of flights during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The executive chairman of Thai AirAsia and Thai AirAsia X told The Nation newspaper late last week that those two entities may continue to operate under their present ownership structure until as far out as 2027.

"The merger of two airlines in Thailand may have to wait two to three years until Thai AirAsia X leaves the business rehabilitation plan, which should happen around late 2025,” Tassapon Bijleveld said. Thai AirAsia entered into bankruptcy protection in May 2022, at the time saying doing so would allow it to manage better debts incurred earlier in the pandemic.

The most canteeeeeeeeek is stil ytlpower and ytl. I sold too early. Anyhow a profit is still a profit.

By now everyone in i3 should have knew Mike-tikus go every forum just to slander people.

He is still holding his Jaks and capA tight tight.

What a pity, TTB should be a politician then he can earned billion as Minister rather than million as Fund Manager.