latest apple revenue guidance for december 18 quarter:
1) usd 84 bil. Previous guidance between USD 89b to usd 93 bil.
2) lower Revenue guidance of approximately usd 5bil to usd 9 bil Revenue shortage. And the shortage is 100% due to in china revenue drop.

Key interpretation:

Q4 2017 china revenue, USD 17.96 bil, total iphone unit sales 13 mil unit.

we use usd 9 bil short as benchmark, which means about 50% drop in china revenue. Which may implies a short of 6.5 mil iphone sold in china.

Therefore, q4 2018 total iphone sales should in the region of 70 mil unit globally.

Other factor that may contribute to lower revenue is lower average selling price which due to massive give-back offer by apple globally. As high as 40% discount. Which may generate lower revenue in front of flattish unit sales.

Conclusion: i'm not sure if lower revenue guidance given by apple is traslated to lower loading volume too to its vendors like inari & gtronic since both inari and gtronic has issued unofficial statement saying the volume loading is stable.

More clue will be sought after apple release it official result end of January 19.

Lower revenue is not equal to lower loading volume/ unit sales.

apple Q1 2018 revenue was USD 88.3 bil. Latest guidanance for Q1 2019 is USD 84 bil. A declined of 4.8% y-o-y

apple Q1 2018 revenue was USD 88.3 bil. Latest guidanance for Q1 2019 is USD 84 bil. A declined of 4.8% y-o-y

latest apple revenue guidance for december 18 quarter:
1) usd 84 bil. Previous guidance between USD 89b to usd 93 bil.
2) lower Revenue guidance of approximately usd 5bil tp usd 9 bil Revenue is all due to more than 100% decline in china revenue.

Key interpretation:

Q4 2017 china revenue, USD 17.96 bil, total iphone unit sales 13 mil unit.

we use usd 9 bil short as benchmark, which means about 50% drop in china revenue. Which may implies a short of 6.5 mil iphone sold in china.

Therefore, q4 2018 total iphone sales should in the region of 70 mil unit globally.

Other factor that may contribute to lower revenue is lower average selling price which due to massive give-back offer by apple globally. As high as 40% discount. Which may generate lower revenue in front of flattish unit sales.

Conclusion: i'm not sure if lower revenue guidance given by apple is traslated to lower loading volume too to its vendors like inari & gtronic since both inari and gtronic has issued unofficial statement saying the volume loading is stable.

More clue will be sought after apple release it official result end of January 19.

Outlier, if you no tell, i dont even know gtronic now trade at PE 16. Banker use forard PE. 25-30 is not forward PE. Not sure why you assume that. Is good you ask the last qustion. "What if it was expnsve to begin with"? Everyone value everything differetly. So, you trying to use book theory of PEG to undestand PE. That is why i told you PEG is no longer my parameter.

Yfchong, tguan is stil in my pick in my 4th competition.

Outliar, 1 more important consideration is whether you are willing to pay a price for future growth. More like a forward PE, they call it.

Those involve in design and develop will most likely survive and prosper.

you try to mark a target price with PE. Buying a stock and setting a target price are completely 2 different stuff

You don't shy away a stock because of high PE

Outliar, you need to know what determine PE 1st. And if you notice i will mention historical PE range.

icon-gor, pls share your study. thank you.

Apple is very good buy. 2 trillion market cap no problem in 2 more years. I stick to its supply chain.

apple will have their die hard fans. And with recent major trade in promo, i hope they will be doing well on new devices. The refurbished market grow at 14% p.a. vs 3% for new devices, apple is damn smart to have this trade in promo. Buy back all model at same price, but sell back at different price tier. Margin damn good.

ha ha..

he always humble

Outliar, my parameter is growth. I'm a retired businessman. I not able to tell the %. Nobody can tell either. With iphone stagnant sales, i'm looking at more content per device

probability-gor, you have good stock pick all the while, can share yours? thank u

PEG no longer my parameter.

charlesT gor, you are old bird..you got strong heart..ha ha..

probability, i am biased more towards gtronic. 1) more content per device on top of higher volume. 2) increase capacity of gesture sensor which could add another rm 25 mil to the quarter revenue. 3) potential to be top 3 laser headlight manufacturer. 4) potential shifting of order from china to malaysia for the timing and quartz device. 5) android based 2d face recognition (T-o-F). 4&5 pending confirmation.

All in all, i think nothing has changed my strategy and investement direction yet. Tech stocks are embedded in our daily life. The longer i play, the longer i understand the sector. 2019 will be a good year. cheers!

charles, icon8888 just nominated you, but your argument always make sense to certain extend. Like!!!

paperplane, you seem very conservative this round..much conservative..my 2 cents

up_down, your 2019 pick very well strategized. Good pick!

duit-gor, you are still the faithful one on your pick. Trying to max your profit as usual. A good speculator like me.

my pick are the most boring pick. year in year out almost the smae

mr tan, kindly include my pick:
1) gtronic 30%
2) inari-wb 20%
3) frontken 20%
4) penta 20%
5) tguan 10%

We benefited from upside volumes of legacy phone generations at our North American OEM customer,” Tan said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-broadcom-results/broadcom-earnings-beat-on-strong-demand-for-data-center-products-idUSKBN1O52I0

1st, ask yourself why not?
2nd, ask yourself to think the different between what is cost center and what is profit center.


Posted by Choivo Capital > Dec 5, 2018 12:09 PM | Report Abuse

yistock, since you're here.

Can i ask why all the semiconductor co need third party people to burn in their goods?

Why not do it themselves. KESM is looking interesting. But i dont know why semicon dco don't just in house it.

up_down, thanks for compliments. In fact the real like sifu KC Chong, Mr.OTB, Icon8888 and Bursadummy (who has ceased sharing about 3 years ago are the one that deserve the highest respect.

You are trying too hard, but gain bad reputation

QQQ3, you are most probably the only one i have seen trying to proof your theory is right, and the worst one in i3 so far. I wish you all the best.

When the wave is big, even Olympic swimmer also can drown. Just do nothing and sail through according to the wave, no point struggle and waste energy. The more you do, the more you are wrong.

Let me chip in my 2 cents: Stock market is a place to make money, not a place to prove theory. The only thing you need to prove, is your ability to withstand the stress. And your ability to learn. Other than that, just do nothing and relax. Talk too much serve no purpose.

Those info are certainly not copied. Is thinking alike. You dont have many different thesis when investing in same company.

"蘋果產品行銷部副總裁Greg Joswiak在最新專訪中堅稱，iXR上市後就是最暢銷機種。
路透社、CNET報導，蘋果產品行銷部副總裁Greg Joswiak 28日在接受訪問時表示，iPhone XR目前是蘋果「最主流的商品、也是最受歡迎的iPhone」(most mainstream product and our most popular iPhone)。他說，自從iXR上市之後，就一直是最暢銷的iPhone機種。
這跟市場先前傳出的消息不太相符。

https://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=2834584b-914c-4c14-8586-d92949585f25&c=MB010000

https://www.macrumors.com/2018/11/28/iphone-xr-best-selling-iphone/

And let listen to what the insider tell:
https://www.macrumors.com/2018/11/28/iphone-xr-best-selling-iphone/

Found the reasoning finally. Also witnessed again how the short seller operate and newsmedia manupulate human's fear and greed

The Evil:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/not-so-big-in-japan-apple-cuts-price-of-i...

The Clue:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Apple-to-alter-iPhone-sales...
https://www.cultofmac.com/561675/apple-japan-antitrust-rules-iphone/
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/07/11/business/corporate-busine...

My thought:
It is a long practice for apple subsidizing japan carrier to capture the biggest market share there.
29/11/2018 08:33

i think they are talking about communication system, not huawei smartphone.

Inari should have 1 more round of bonus issue 1:2 by end of the year due to the removal of Par value regime change. You can search back 2016 report for the detail.

The share price is adjusted post bonus issue. PE should stay the same.

iamwen, thanks for the great input

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Inari/183906.jsp

Another point is that Revenue can no longer use to judge Inari RF segment simply because the higher RF content will increase Profit more significantly than Revenue itself. Inari RF capacity has increased another 25% based on analyst report.

Probability, i think the latest result proven that Q1 & Q2 2018 base had both overshot from normal. That was when apple launched iphone x using single premium model with target of 80 mil unit production. The inventory carriying value has shot up in apple and revenue & profit of inari has also shot up. Iphone X content value is much higher compare previous model, resulted in US$1000 price tag.

With latest result in, the RF segment has back to it normal growth track. I compute the singapore revenue with 5% growth from 2016 (not 2017 due to high base). I think is very reasonable. Latest result has met my RF projection for Q1 2019. So, i think the profit is warranted for RF segment up to now.

As for all the negative news circulating in supply chain, those are pointed to Q2&Q3 of 2019.

Inari latest quarter affected by samsung indeed. But with next year new samsung model introducing 2D face ID as additional feature on top of iris scan, inari vcsel (i need to confirm this) and IR should prosper again.

New factory space for OSRAM has startef production in Q1 2019, i hope to see better contribution in february result.

5G is on the way, i will continue to hold my holding.

TheSyndicate, a brilliant choice. Q2 2019 result to be released in Feb 2019 will know if all negative news are truth/false

misai, my price higher than 2.48. Cheers!