Thanks Des07 for your sharing, your methodology to calculate Forex loss is aligned with Q3 2016 actual result. But when i try the same method for Q4 2015, it is off from actual result. I hope 10sen=20m is true as per TF say last Q. I try to believe what TF told us and I assume 100M forex loss for Q4 with net operating earning=500M. PAT still got 400M.

Asian apprentice season 2 coming soon in this year. Sure will boost AA branding. Pls note that the 1st host for apprentice is US President now. Lol

In theory, special dividend does not affect the share price. If current price is 2.50 and you give 1.00 special dividend tomorrow. The price will drop to 1.50.
But in this Airasia case, it is a bit different. To me, current price is super undervalue.

I will consider the value of AA by 2 simplified method:
1. Asset Value - If someone would like to offer 1B USD to buy 25% of your business. Then how much will 100% worth? 4x 1B USD = 4B USD = RM 17.6B = RM5.0 per share. Now only 2.56? Hahaha..
2. Strong operational profit - Try to imagine that if a stock with RM1.50 per share can help you earn RM0.30-0.40 per year in future. PE for others Low cost Airline is around 8-11. But AA just 4-5 now. Is it worth to invest? Up to you..

Ok, angpau money pun invest into AA liao. Huat ar..

Use my angpau money q at 2.56.. 6th sense told me that if I'm not buying today , not chance to get 2.5x in future. Lol

I believe that EPF will keep buying to keep him as a substantial shareholder. March is coming and binding offer will announce soon. I wont be surprise if the AAC price reach up to 1.2B USD. Check the chinese tourism number during CNY, then u will know why china companies so desperate to get more aircraft asap.

Agreed with des07. Plus ringgit in weak position. It's good for AAC selling in usd. Buy ringgit stock n get usd div. Try to imagine it. Ang moh can chip in cheaper also at this moment

Do u think TF would like to pay interest for fun? I believe that he will push it asap to get div to payoff his loan. Think will announce the div during agm. Let shareholder buy at live turn it big green in another day.

volume seem like in CNY mood already. Ong ar, huat ar.. See u all after CNY..

If PP can move on mean Roll Royce's case can close case liao.. If got any problem, Bursa will stop PP ald.. It's just a noise when AA is moving forward.

2 spammer fight each other is unbeatable. Maybe they are super rich and super free. Nothing to do.. ai.. Why im not the one who super rich and super free..

Nothing to worried. In term of revenue confirm highest. I think slightly lower in load factor might due to MAS reach highest load factor in history. But can't sustain long one,they are burning money to keep higher load factor. Meaningless in the sense of business.

@supermx2 beware of every stocks. Lol.. Try to make more homework before make any judgement. Good luck to you.

Ya, it's below my expectation also in term of load factor. But last year Q4 have RM226 Unit Passenger Revenue. Assume it's improve 3% like last quarter will reach RM234. RM 234 x 6,762,823 = 1.58B + 300M from AAC is about 1.9B revenue. Assume 25% x 1.8B = Net operation margin = 475M. Net Foreign loss should be 100M. Contribution from associate = 50M. PAT = 475-100+50= 425M. Not too bad.

ya, agreed with valuegrowth. It's too hard for us to guess. I can simply make it become nice story to AA but it is not too meaningful.
For example:
TF and KM may actually lack of cash. But they highly desperate want to increase the shareholding of AA due the the value of AA itself. So they try to do PP by loan from bank. Then declare dividend to clear personal loan. Increase the shareholding with almost no extra money involve. This is brilliant move for founder. If we cannot enter earlier, we just blame ourselves why we cannot find out the value of AA when it is 0.80 per share.

foreign_fund， You may the similar question also, why the price reach more 3.00, TF and KM still hold and did not dispose? Is it 3.00 not more attractive to sell? Why? Lol...

I believe that the reason for TF to hold more shareholding of AA by PP is mainly to get the special dividend by spin-off AAC in big price.
TF movie script could be like this:
1. Announce PP @ April 2016
2. Announce selling of AAC @ Sept 2016
3. Delay half year of PP to rush selling of AAC and use special dividend to pay PP
4. Fail to push AAC faster since too many bidder and try to loan short term loan from bank for PP
5. Equity swap partially of AAX to get more cash and prepared to pay for charges for PP
6. Now TF is waiting for huge dividend from AAC so that he can clear all his loan for PP and buyback the AAX.

Is it make sense to you all?

If i'm TF, i wont sell any single share at this moment. Lol..

merck, can you stop spamming as well? To me, your spamming level is equivalent to BWC / Investo.

It's depend on the intention of asking. We are here to share information and learning some knowledge here. Try not to confuse other investors.

Would like to sell partially at 2.58 so that I can buy some new underwear for CNY. lol.. Try to hold tight 90% and use 10% to earn some money in volatility movement.

Thanks Dong Fang,. It is typo error. Will delete my previous msg.

1. Shareholding for Foreign Fund
@ 30 June 2016 = 56.0%
@ 31 Dec 2016 = 53.5%
- Drop 2.50% = Market value about 175M

2. Shareholding for EPF
@ 30 June 2016 = 4.41%
@ 19 Jan 2017 = 5.26%
-Increase 0.85% = Market value about 60M

Today + yesterday trading amount is about 160M

Some investors keep saying that FF is dumping the AA. Is it true?
Number won't lie. Make your own judgement.

My view is:
1. All the panic selling is from local retailer but not from FF or Local Fund.
2. Founder do PP. Local Fund start to acquired more. For FF, it is just normal trade movement to me.

Ringgit strengthen a bit bit, 74% Jet fuel hedge at USD 60, spin-off AAC seem good in progress, will list in HK soon, demand remain high in Q1 2017 and expect to remain strong in future. All these factors should let AA share price unstoppable.

Will Q4 2016 quarterly report drag until March?

Anyone here know when AA release their loading factor for Q4 2016?

Congrat for those collect cheap price this morning. At least TF ald do he should do. It's jz a niose. Then we jz wait the materialize for those good news.

so the extra 5% discount will become the spread in AAC deal. 5% x 98M = 5M. 100 planes = 500M for off balance sheet item for AAC. Thus, my hope to get 1.2B deal for AAC is not that aggressive. Hahaha..

Valuegrowth, do u know how the AA depreciation policy work? And is it compatible with others airline?

@supermx2 Try not blame others if we can't gain in the market. Take your own judgement and just bare with the risk. By the way, i tot your last post in AA should be around 2pm-3pm 23 Jan 2017. Lol..

The number make sense to me. Let take example of A320 with original price USD 98M. Base on AA order volume, discount may up to 50%. So AA buy with price USD50M. I assume depreciation policy = 10Years. So book value =0 after 10 years. If your net operation 10 years=0, you still earn a plane with market value USD 20M. So more now net operation is very positive with high demand and low oil price. This is the real win (asset gain)-win (operation profit) plan

Can be unofficially or officially what... How to validate wo? Lol.. Even the bribery is valid, don't think that TF will so stupid and left the document in official way. Only "genius" will do something like direct transfer in personal account, etc.. hahahaa...

EPF acquired more as well:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5321785

At least TF response very fast and let us have a good mood during CNY. Lol..

I try to do high level estimation now. Should be significant for me to do judgement on the fair price for AA.

I believe USD 1B is non-binding offer from someone before. Thus, TF only ask for open bidding to others and try to push higher price. Good move from TF. Have to give credit for TF. Lol..

USD 1B is just a benchmark for buyer. I believe China company willing to pay slightly higher premium to get it done. My estimation is very simple. If only one competitor, then it will only sell with USD 1B, if 2 competitors, then will push the price higher 2%.
Now they received at least 10 non-binding offer. I assume it may reach +20%. I hope is 1.2B USD la but mostly likely with fall between 1.05B-1.15B USD. lol
It depend what is your assumption on selling price and currency.

My previous assumption is 1.2B USD x 4.30= 5.16B Ringgit. RM1.00 Div per share = RM3.33B.
Balance = 5.16 - 3.33 = 1.8B -- I agak agak 1.7B just now.. lol..

To be more conservative with current exchange rate 1.1B USD x 4.44= 4.88B Ringgit. RM1.00 Div per share = RM3.33B.
Balance = 4.88 - 3.33 = 1.55B -- Not too off of my 1.7B also. lol..

Thanks curger12345 for sharing. At least TF act very fast on this. Lol.. Good move.

One more thing: why FF hold more than 50% on AA? I believe is due to FF value AA more than Local Fund and Local Retailer. Why TF push so hard to list it in HK? For no reason? Lol.. It may due to TF think that Foreign Fund value AA better than Local Fund and Local Retailer. Listed in HK will attract more FF to buy AA. Even Local Fund (EPF) and founder (TF and KM) also realize on this. EPF buy more and Founder do PP. There is no reason for Local retailer need to "fear" about it, am I right? Lol..

This is my view on AA. Appreciate your view also. Thanks.

tomorrow trend is always hard to predict. But I cannot imagine how much is the price when AA:

1. Received 1.2B USD from AAC and declared RM1.00 per share as special dividend.

2. The balance RM 1.7B from AAC will use it to clear debt and gearing may reach 0.8. Current net debt = 8.8B. 8.8B - 1B (PP) - 1.7B (balance after declared RM1.00 div per share) - 2B (debt from AAC balance sheet) + 2B (8 new aircraft for year 2017) = New Debt = 6.1B. New gearing will become around 0.8 which is very low to me. FYI, current gearing is about 1.2

3. New balance sheet in future will look super nice since you no need hold more debt for aircraft. Just using more on leasing method. No more high capex company.

4. After selling of AAC. what is the new expected PE? Expected operation profit for 2016 = 1.5B. After remove of AAC, it may reduce to 1.2B. Assume no improvement in 2017, assume 1.2B for 2017 which is around RM0.36 per share. Expected PE = (2.50 - 1.00 (dividend)) / 0.36 = 4.2. You may refer to others low cost airline, PE should reflect at least 8. 8 x 0.36 + 1.00 (dividend) = 3.88!!!

And I guess the profit will significantly improve in 2017. Why?
1. Associate starting to have positive earning. All associate will have positive earning in 2016 Q4 (from TF).
2. Low gearing will have lower financial cost. If financial cost cut by will save about 200M per annum.
3. Demand will remain high with low currency in ringgit. These will boost the revenue for aviation sector.

@valuegrowth

But different behavior between AA and AAX sound something wrong to me. I also hope that it wont happened as my script. To be fair, TF should rewarded and received the div from AAC selling. As a very minor minor minor shareholder, I don't mine my dividend is diluted with PP which I always price it in. Lol..

Just hope that today is purely overreact action and this may allowed investor who can value AA as a gem to buy in more.

@ toto, sorry to tell you that I do not know how low it will go. I only judge the share price base on their fundamental. Those script just make me feel more comfortable to buy more only. Lol.
I think that the current price is still very attractive in term of fundamental itself. My next move is collect more angpau in CNY and buy more in got chance.

By the way, I'm not sifu. I can refer some sifus in AA here, such as Icon8888, 股海无崖，valuegrowth, cruger12345. I just a student who try to learn how they judge the value of the company and try to make my own judgement in the end.

This bribery is point to TF but not AA. So the negative impact should split equally to all TF related company but it does not look like this way. So I suspect someone just want to get more AA. Anyway, just another wild guess from a market newbie.

You may find out that the fluctuate movement of share price only apply on AA but not AAX? Why? Because selling of AAC only link to AA but not AAX. So it make sense that if someone (maybe FF) want to push down the price to get more AA so that they can get big dividend from AA later.

As long as all the things are well documented, then it is fine la. As a shareholder like us, most of us don't even know that AA always bare the maintenance fees for their private jet if without this news. We don't know do not mean that TF cheat us.

If they did inform you in somewhere but you are not aware it consider as a cheat, oh yea, TF cheat us a lot.. hahahahahha.. By the way, bye supermx2 since yo told us that u will never invest in AA and post anything here. Goodluck to you.

Foreign Fund, Private Placement.

Another movie scripts from me:
1. Foreigner hold a lot of AA, more than 50%. They actually dont wan TF get PP done before AAC selling.
2. Counter attack from RR (FF ask RR to pick this time) so that PP is delayed / unsuccessful.

What will beneficial FF:
1. Get AAC done before PP effective so FF can get the AAC dividend without diluted.
or / and
2. Get cheaper entry price for FF to get more div from AAC deal.

Anyway, I just makeup this story. But do you all think that is it possible happened like this way?

Nope, I'm not able to get the lowest also for this round. I only get it at 2.42. Just hope any sifu here can teach us how to guess the lowest entry price so I would like to try it next time. lol..

Congrat for those who can get at 2.39/2.40. since I enter to stock market, I never get lowest daily price as my entry price. Really envy for those person who can predict so accurate.

Congrat for those who can get at 2.39/2.40. since I enter to stock market, I never get lowest daily price as my entry price. Really envy for those person who can predict so accurate.

Got it RM2.42. And Q to sell at 2.58. Lol.. Dont think it will reach there today. But no harm to do so..