Ya, that why I think is just a noise and market overreact nia..

@ Berry Juice, not really la.. It is global news. Actually i support Malaysiakini to be more transparent on this.

Will RR sue AA and buy AA at the same time? lol..

RR news off course is a negative news. But depend how you digest it. You may think it as permanent impact to AA so it may cause panic selling today. But I personally think it another way round, this fear create a chance for you to buy in cheaper before materialize of AAC sellling (huge dividend), listing in HK and Q4 good result (with 93% loading factor).

Q at 2.42

I believe that it is due to 70% simplicity in operation (working related) and 30% personal gain. They have many companies such as TunePro, AA, AAX, etc. It is hard to justify if only bill to one of the company. They should handle this in proper way such as by allowance basis (50% allowance from AA, 30% from AAX, 20% TunePro), for the personal usage part can just provide them higher salary/allowance. The financial outcome is the same, just one kena sue and one without.

Hope they learn their lesson and documented it in better way.

Valuegrowth & supersaiyan3, thanks for sharing, will take noted on that.

2ez4airasia, it is not good to have bribery environment. We all know what is happening on RM2.6bil but does not mean that we are ok with it.

But we have to admit that this kind of always happened in business world especially in aviator sector.

I dont think this news will create the fear in market but I hope that TF /DM is not really involve in this kind bribery. Billionaire like them should focus more on how to growth their business and make it better.

Will keep holding my AA share since FA remain the same.
By the way, cant understand what is the intention of calvintan and I believe that I will never understand.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4142044/Rolls-Royce-chief-probed-fraud-squad-corruption.html

Any impact to the share price for this corruption case? I got no idea.

calvintan, I try to be more open minded and try to understand your statement. But it doesn't make sense to me.
1. AAX is sister company to AA only. They are separate entities. AAC selling (either good deal or not) is not going to have direct impact to AAX.
2. Capital Commitment is not current debt. You only need to pay the cash (debt in liability) once u receive the aircraft (asset). I'm not accountant, but basic accounting should work like this way. If you wanna book something in liability, u need to booked some asset also. If you not yet received asset, how to book it into liability? At least I don't know how la since my accounting knowledge still in 101 level.

My script for the swap equity of AAX are as below:
1. Why disposed AAX (swap equity)? TF need cash.
2. Why not AA but AAX? TF personally think that AA is better than AAX
3. Why swap equity but not direct dispose? TF need cash for short-term and TF are confidence on AAX
4. Why need more cash? PP for AA and might involve a lot of charge since RM1B is not a small amount.
5. Why need liquidity for short-term only? Expected to receive special dividend after selling AAC in Q2 2017.
6. What is the main intention for TF to do this? Not actual transaction in disposing, so will save some transaction cost. Will save him some interest charges since he need cash to pay for PP.

56M (from disposing of AAX) x 4% (interest saving from personal loan VS special offer if you swap equity) X 0.5 (half year) = 1M

TF save RM1.1M of interest... hahahaha.. like that can save 1M, 無魚，蝦也好。

Hahaha.. I seem like try to make up some story which will benefit AA.

Or another way round. Can it be he need money for PP but unwilling to loan too much money because short term loan will kena super high interest. Why short term? Because he expect to received huge dividend soon from selling of AAC. So tentatively swap it with bank maybe, then bank loan you some cash with minimal interest. Once you received dividend then payback bank and swap back AAX. lol..

Like this wont trigger MGO and save some money from interest charges.

@ cruger12345
Is it possible happened like this way? He expect AA share price will move up shortly due to selling of AAC and received huge dividend. So he swap from AAX to AA, after received dividend then only swap back. So directly cash out a lot without doing any transaction. You may noted that the disposing date is after he received the non-binding offer (5 Dec 2016). So i guess should be a "happy" price lo. Hahahaha... Just wild guess.

But at least I believe that TF think AA is better than AAX now. lol.. should not be a bad news.

FYI, I'm new to the stock market. Not pro enough to do any recommendation. So this info is just for sharing purposes and hope that others can share their also. Just for reference purpose. Cheers!

Your hedging cost is justifiable. But chance to hedge will be 0.00001%. Lol...

Anyway, C34 will expired by next month end.

Personal Portfolio:
90% in stock. All in AirAsia (mother (65%) & C-34 (25%))
10% in cash for my CNY underwear.
Will buy in again when AA drop at 2.45 or below.
Other scenario will just hold tight until the materialize of AAC selling, HK listing and then check the fundamental again at the time.

A question from me:
what is the benefit that you can get if you become a spammer / try to promote yourself become "god of stock investing"? I really can't understand. It's harder than study a stock.
I think our ultimate goal here in the forum is consistent which is earn more money. Try to keep this forum informative. I believe everyone here is open minded and you may share your opinion (buy / sell / hold, etc) but appreciate that if your statement can support with some fact.

Just like last Friday and this Monday, short term player will take profit 1st. If you can hold for next 6-8 months. Not much to worried at this price.

Buy more at 2.60 today. Cheers!

I never hold call warrants until expired. Is the issuer pay you the cash directly into your bank account or how is it work? Anyone here know?

If the growth is as what TF say, it's reasonable to target RM10 in year 2018. Lol..

@BN_menang PP and buy from open market is different la.. PP will increase the NOSH, will raise more fund. Plus TF is human. He also want earn more money like we do.

@ BN_menang You just blame yourself that why you din buy at that time. TF acquired PP at current price.

i believe Q4 will have good result also. with 93% loading factor, PAT will reach at least 400M. 500M Net operation profit. 100M forex loss. I give up the deferred tax part. Even TF also admit that he dont know anything about deferred tax. Lol..

please check the listing price the planes. For example: A320 is about 98M USD. But this is the price you can buy from them. AA is the biggest customer for Airbus. They will get large discount and I believe can up to 50%. So your debt 18B USD for new aircraft, but they are not new aircraft. Depreciation basis + cash you earn from operation. Now net debt is about RM9B. The number make sense to me. Nothing need to hide.

@ArsenalBoyz same calculation, just different expiry date.

The capital commitment is the future contract for future planes. In logical thinking or account concept, it does not make sense if you consider it as a debt now. To me the net worth = 0. Asset - Debt = 0. I don't think that anything will go wrong if you would like to growth the business.

One of the reason china company would like to buy AAC is china itself is lack of planes now. They already view the aviation sector is the right time to invest and try to enter the market before others one else. If they are not urgent, they can slowly negotiate with aircraft manufacturer and no need to buy from AA liao.

@ valuegrowth, thanks for sharing. Last night I still try to estimate the debt for MAA this year. * aircraft is about RM2B, if half of them park under leasing, balance sheet will only show RM1B as debt and offsetting by RM1B from PP. If take off AAC balance sheet, then the debt could reduce to RM6B. If include AAC selling use some to clear debt, gearing may reach 0.6 only.
AA balance sheet will look much better in future.

Good news. Calvintaneng is ask for sell now. You should know what to do now.

Different issuer for C34 and C35

I start to collect it from 2.91 to 2.22. Now still naked without underwear. I'm waiting my 1st target price at 3.20 only to consider sell a bit.

Thanks 股海無涯. If this happened, will easily have arbitrage situation?

@ valuegrowth Thanks.
@ 股海無涯 不好意思， 借你的文章里面问问题，外面forum太杂乱了。哈哈

Hi valuegrowth, nice to see you here.
Do you know how the dual listing work? Is it like I can sell my share here in HK market? Or AA will issued more shares in HK listing?

很感谢你的分享。可不可以分享一下你自己对AA的估价呢？我自己的估价大概RM3.60。想参考一下其他股东的意见。哈哈。

@ sell : PP for TF is buy at current price at that time. So you cant say he buy cheaper than us. You just can blame that you miss the boat at that time.

@sell
AAC contribute about 25%-30% of profit for AA. If you judge by the net asset value, how much is AA worth? If someone offer AAC with 1B USD, then how much is AA worth. 1B USD / 0.3 = 3.33B USD = 14.8 B ringgit. Market cap is only 8.6B if we include PP from TF. It is worth RM4.50 per share. This method is not accurate but roughly will let you know how much the asset worth for AA. Even you discount 20% on this method, it is still worth RM3.60 per share.

If you would like to have valuation by earning. You may refer to this simplify method.
Total AA net operation earning is about RM1.5B per year. Net of AAC will be around RM1B. Market Cap is 8.6B with cash 4.5B. The PE is about 4 only with current price.

If it's very expensive to you at current level, appreciate your justification. Thanks in advance.

Just calm down if the price is go down later. Just stick with what you study and what you believe. That is why we need to do our homework ourselves to build up the confidence and decide when to hold, when to sell and when to buy. Not simply believe on someone even they are sifu level.

I should sell a bit my c34 to buy back my underwear now.. lol..

Haha, this is best news that I received today.

"Going forward, try to be more independent and learn big picture. Will be busy, can't depend on me all the time." from BWC

I'm already in no wearing underwear position..

ya, agreed with you.
But recently movement seem not really care about AA earning power. The expected operational earning for AA is about 1.0B-1.2B after selling the AAC. If reduce profit by 160M. It will still around 900M to 1B per annum. With market cap 8B (include PP) - 5B from AAC. Expected PE will be around 3. Price is still very attractive. But Bloomberg, PP or Deutsche still criticize AA. Lol..

If judge the value of AA only by currency impact. 早早收工了。
钱有那么容易赚吗？lol

It is still a good forum if you know how to filter uninformative comments.

@ wiki123: I hope they can get it done as fast as possible la. At least provide some "hint". Haha.. "Happy" with non binding price is not enough information. Should say "better" than what I expected. hahaha.
But what TF say yesterday, the deal should be completely done by this summer (Q2 2017). I believe special dividend may reach RM1 per share which is about RM3.3B. Then the balance will keep as cash. Net debt will significantly reduce to RM6 which the gearing is could reach below 1. But they will add more aircraft this year, gearing probably will remain the same as now.

Let me summaries my guessing:

TF wanna growth his business aggressively due to the globalization environment and oil price most likely will stagnant with low price for some time. But he is lack of money to make it growth. There are few ways to raise the capital. PP, issued share, loan money from bank, etc.

1st step for him is PP instead off issued share to pub. It is a good move for him since he know his business the best. "Fat water don't leak out to others" 肥水不外流，自己钱自己赚. Plus this move will increase the confidence of investor. Share price will keep increase and maintain high. I don't think that he will trade his share frequently. So, what is the benefit to him if share price is high? My guess is he can loan more money from bank for AA when share price is good.

So next step for him is listing in HK. This will help AA push higher the price as well. All these steps will help AA to loan more money easily to growth the business.

The bidding for AAC just come at the right time. China companies especially bank and insurance company have too much liquidity asset such as cash, stocks, etc. They are hungry to look for more stable long-term asset especially asset driven by USD. For example, ping an insurance (one of the bidder for AAC) bought the aircraft from LATAM in June 2016 for their leasing business. Although the balance sheet from AAC does not look like it is worth 1B USD but buyer will skip the step on setup business if you directly bought from establish company like AA. And I believe AA get big discount when they buy aircraft from Airbus. Thus, the off balance sheet items is worth than what we expected. If one new aircraft worth 50M and airasia get 45M (10% discount), saving in 5M x 100 aircraft = 500M USD. Off balance sheet item already worth 500M, I will expect AA will get 1.1B-1.2B from selling of AAC.

The balance sheet of AA will look super nice after selling of AAC. Reduce debt, more cash, higher PE from Core Business. So I do know why Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank keep criticize AA.

I personally full confidence on AA. With current price around RM2.50 still consider cheap to me. I will keep collect if got available cash.

Appreciate your thought and please correct me if I say something wrong.

If AA hit 3.3 before Feb, then i would like to have a career break and become full-time investor for 2 months.. haha..

valuegrowth, thanks for sharing.