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2017-03-11 02:16 | Report Abuse
Valuegrowth,
I try to digest your story but not sure I understand it correctly or not. Please forgive me if I ask some stupid questions here.
1. Do you mean that the hedging strategy is apply to future aircraft booking as well? I personally don't think so la but I hope that you are right and I'm wrong. haha..
2. For existing US loan, I think that you are right. The hedging portion should tied with aircraft loan. But as long as MAA still hold the aircraft, we can't see these as one off profit (generally retailers are happy to see huge jump if got one off profit). Am i right? I believe that this gain will only slowly show in operational profit since you serve loan in 3.2 ringgit but gain in 4.45 ringgit asset and 34% AA revenue in foreign currencies.
3. Is this the main reason 28 aircraft from MAA would entail a SLB agreement and make it one off profit in P&L? If yes, then Q1 PAT may reach 800M!!! 400M from operating profit and 350M foreign gain!!! And it is realised gain!!!!! If it is true, Q1 PAT will be super NICE!! But later some reporters may say PAT Q117 vs Q116 is drop from 878M to 800M. hahahahaha...
Thanks valuegrowth for your sharing. Learn a lot from you!
2017-03-11 01:24 | Report Abuse
Magic number! 33%! If AAC worth 1B USD, current Airasia should worth 3B USD which is 3x4.45= 12.35B Ringgit /3.34 NOSH = 4.00 per share. Haha.. simple mathematics.
2017-03-10 22:03 | Report Abuse
feicsh, I have the thought of AAC version 2 is because public dont treat AA asset in high valuation.
If public give AA asset higher enough in valuation, they dont really need leasing business in future.
2017-03-10 21:51 | Report Abuse
feicsh, very envy you leh. I only start to have 5 figures profit this year. Not sure when can have 6 digits profit like you.. Have to study harder!!!
2017-03-10 19:20 | Report Abuse
Valuegrowth, still waiting your view on AAC as you promise today. Lol..
Any hidden info meh? My view is quite simple.
Selling AAC is just purely spin-off on asset to have better valuation and clean up their balance sheet in future. Lesser asset but lesser in liability as well (debt), gearing will significantly improve and become lesser. This may help you by loan more money with better deal. Then can have "AAC version 2" and spin-off again and again. Although pay higher price for leasing compare to own the aircraft yourself but your balance sheet look nicer and more stable PAT in future (lesser forex gain/loss). I think is worth to pay "extra" premium to have more stable PAT. Valuation should be higher in future for AA.
2017-03-10 16:47 | Report Abuse
马后炮 is work like this. early early sell all at 2.94 and buy now at 2.84.. lol..
Anyway, mother share remain 60%.
35% waiting for C-34 pay cheque.
5% in C-38 now with average price 0.0725
2017-03-10 02:51 | Report Abuse
2017-03-10 00:34 | Report Abuse
yes, please hantam C38. I q at 0.13 and wait u buy it. lol..
2017-03-09 20:13 | Report Abuse
https://www.pressreader.com/
Good news to IAA? Lol...
2017-03-09 19:41 | Report Abuse
C-38
Gearing about 10 (Super GOOD)
Premium = 2% (Good)
Expired date: 28 April (Neutral, too short actually, lol.. If July then will be better.. haha)
7 weeks to ago. Timing is somewhere in between receive final bid for AAC and make announcement.
Reason to buy: Market should look good on AAC deal. Before announcement on final bid, might have some goreng trend. Lol.. Anyway, just 3% of my portfolio. Hope it's help.
2017-03-09 19:06 | Report Abuse
+ Natural hedging against currency. Forex gain /loss is hedge by AAC deal which will receive in USD!
2017-03-09 19:04 | Report Abuse
Dont say like that. He say that his new stocks work well as well.. lol... Anyway, this time should not be window dressing la, etc..
After AA CFO clear the doubt of Bankers on their financial items. Maybe they are full force buying AA now. It's worth to give him 3-6 bonus. hahaha... At least he help to push AA valuation higher. Lol.. Have to give credit to CIMB as well. They ask more detail on P&L of AAC and try to get guess more accurately on binding price for AAC.. GOOD JOB CIMB!!!
2017-03-09 18:30 | Report Abuse
I will hold it until receive special dividend! If 1.2B USD for AAC = 5.34B Ringgit = RM1.00 Ringgit per share special div + 2B ringgit to reduce debt (enough to pay new 8 aircraft!!!). All net operating cash flow in year 2017 all can use to clear debt. Gearing should be drop to 0.8 which is quite good to me!! Please, 1.2b USD PLEASE!!!!
2017-03-09 17:43 | Report Abuse
Anyone here receive C-34 pay cheque? I not yet receive leh.. today should be day 7, right?
2017-03-09 16:54 | Report Abuse
yeah.. bought c-38 yesterday at price 0.065. but just able to bough a little bit. only 3% of my portfolio. but better than none.. lol..
2017-03-09 16:50 | Report Abuse
hahahaha... supermx2, what you want? when AA reach 2.8, u say will u turn. When it reach 2.9, u say AAA will turn again. I wait u say this again at 3.5.. lol...
2017-03-09 16:32 | Report Abuse
Really lucky, cancel selling for c-38 about 15min then reach 2.9 liao.. wakakak... this year got luck..
2017-03-09 16:31 | Report Abuse
I long time din see 2.9 liao.. really miss it... lol
2017-03-09 16:25 | Report Abuse
cancel my q at 0.075 for c38 since no one want to buy. let it boost to maximum itself.. lol
2017-03-09 13:30 | Report Abuse
Very easy nia whey whey, just delete the comment will do. Then continue his 3rd ride profit on AA. Lol...
2017-03-09 13:05 | Report Abuse
BWC is definitely a 神 level.. But what kind of 神 then you may decide for him. You name it. lol.. I believe he quote himself as 股神。
2017-03-09 13:01 | Report Abuse
Only PBB and Deutsche Bank give lower than RM3.0 target price. Deutsche always blame on balance sheet and high jet fuel prices. Now jet fuel price is dropping. See what is excuse that he quote right now. Lol.. Im not too sure why PBB so harsh to set target price for AA. In fact, they din ask any question in Q3 and Q4 conference. AirAsia hosted an analyst briefing yesterday to address questions on its full-year. AA CFO is explaining on currency impact and sensitivity on Ringgit vs USD currency, I doubt that PBB got attend it. Why should we believe on the bank that not study much about AA. Lol..
2017-03-09 12:42 | Report Abuse
q my c-38 at price 0.075. Please buy from me then i will have contra gain 15% in 1 day.. hahaha..
2017-03-08 16:19 | Report Abuse
Able to collect C-38 at price 0.065. Wish me luck.. Lol..
2017-03-08 15:32 | Report Abuse
supermx2, you got no basis at all to support your statement. You just try telling us that: Tomorrow will be a raining day. If not going to happen, you will quote the same thing again by tomorrow and tomorrow. Sure one day will kena then you quote urself can predict the weather liao and say that your theory is correct. hahahaha...
2017-03-08 15:16 | Report Abuse
Queuing C-38 at price 0.065. Please sell to me. Lol..
2017-03-08 12:07 | Report Abuse
Cannot login into my HLeBroking account... sweat.. anyone here face the same problem?
2017-03-07 20:41 | Report Abuse
BuyWithConviction is confusing now. Not sure when to use Investo / BWC. Lol.. Schizophrenia...
2017-03-07 16:57 | Report Abuse
20 days more to go for the final bid of AAC. No matter good bid or bad bid (i guess should be good one, if not, at stage of non-binding bid, will stop to sell it), I suspect AA will fly to level 3 and aim for level 4 soon. Lol..
2017-03-07 15:39 | Report Abuse
@ Amateur Player, it is not fair to compare with Genting vs Airasia. The cash of Genting is higher than AA market caps. How to compare? If the price of Genting is RM3 now, I will sell all my AA and switch to Genting. Lol.
2017-03-07 14:15 | Report Abuse
Quite pity to BWC actually, he try very hard to promote him as sifu level so that others can respect/admirer him. But at the end, no one appreciate his everyday big pictures "comments" here. Ya, BWC, try not to waste your time here but study more about your stock. Lol..
2017-03-07 13:29 | Report Abuse
Later "Investo" will come up and say that he bought at 2.65-2.67 today and quote that start his 4th round earning in AA. hahahaha..
2017-03-07 01:47 | Report Abuse
Downside:
1. Cost will increase. Mainly due to weaken in ringgit.
2. Jet Fuel might increase. With current supply in O&G, jet fuel should be maintain low.
3. Price War. MAS say that they wont cut the price and I guess they will slowly increase the price. Even with 90% loading factor but still make losses. The only way to make profit for MAS is cut cost (which is not likely happen in MAS) + increase price. Malindo is trying to get market share this year and expect to receive 10 new planes in 2017. But cost/ASK for airasia is the lowest in the world, they never scare price war. 8 new aircraft is minimum order for MAA in year 2017. May increase 1-2 more. So I guess price war is not going to happen at the end. Try to visit KLIA and KLIA2 yourself, You will shock by the volume of passenger there.
Good luck to all AA shareholders!!
2017-03-07 01:47 | Report Abuse
Highlight of AA for core business items:
1. Unit passenger revenue remain same as 2016 and loading factor remain strong. 2017 Q1 should be the strongest Quarter in AA Q1 history.
2. Ancillary Income increase 10%-15% to 55 per Pax by end of 2017
3. ASK growth 8%
4. Debt will reduce with low gearing, should be below 1.0 in 2Q 2017
2017-03-07 01:45 | Report Abuse
@ valuegrowth,
1. AA wont able to receive all the new aircraft at the beginning of the year. So in average of year 2017, you will only have 80-81 which is about 5% growth.
2. The utilisation increase from 12-14 hours, but to squeeze the 3-4 trips per plane per day become 4-5 trips per place per day. You only able to do shorter route for the "extra 1" like KL to Penang/Singapore. So it guess won't be significantly growth in term of ASK.
Thus, I think 10% is justifiable and it's good enough. 8% will be my expectation for year 2017.
2017-03-06 18:39 | Report Abuse
3 more days to receive money from C-34. Do I still have the change to buy more AA with price 2.65 and below? Fund Foreign start to pump up KLCI today, will AA follow the trend?
2017-03-03 14:06 | Report Abuse
Still waiting the money from C-34. Still no cash to do anything. Can see but cannot buy. lol..
2017-03-02 13:40 | Report Abuse
feicsh, you received the money from C-34 already?
2017-03-01 22:06 | Report Abuse
negative issue - TOO CHEAP!! hahaha... That's all... Wait for 2 more months ba.. Should not visit here too frequent liao.. Avoid check the price also. try hibernating 2 months and i expect AA reach 3.30 and that time.
2017-03-01 19:08 | Report Abuse
Directors are buying AA.. Although volume not that big (255 biji and 30 biji), about 750k ringgit. Is it because they know / maybe can guess the offer value of AAC? Haha.. anyway, should not be bad thing la.
2017-03-01 14:05 | Report Abuse
Base on this progress on AAC, try to study the call warrants and see which one is worth to buy. Personally think that C-49 can be consider (expired date: 31 Jul 2017). With premium 8.61% now. Sound not too bad but the gearing only 3.56. Thus, would like to set lower target entry price 0.22.
2017-02-28 22:24 | Report Abuse
Thanks, ignissimia. Maybe you are right. They are using the arithmetic average of the VWAP. A bit misleading in their wording. They did not mentioned arithmetic formula before. Should use VWAP for 5 days. I tot 5pm time on 28 Feb 2017 should include 28th as well since 4pm 28 Feb is till not expired. Erm.. Learn my lesson now. Sorry to provide misleading info here. Sorry, muarkia! My bad. Will do my homework more next time.
2017-02-28 20:34 | Report Abuse
I will appreciate if someone correct me when I did something wrong or provide wrong information here. . Please forgive me if my msg is misleading / ignoring to someone like muarkia. But muarkia can predict 0.244 for C-34 accurately without using today data. Lol..
From: muarkia
stop misleading people with wrong info la.....AA-C34 sees daily VWAP of 21,22,23,24 and 27th feb only. Today not counting ady! the final settlement price is RM0.244 per warrant. end of story! omg these ppl......lazy to do proper homework but wanna come up with sensitivity test la, scenarios la....LMAO
2017-02-28 19:59 | Report Abuse
Haha, nvm. This is my 1st case study on call warrant. Until 27Feb or 28Feb, it doesn't matter. Just for my reference and next time which day is last trading day, which day is expired date.
Thanks Winningpost, learn a lot from you on warrant.
2017-02-28 18:27 | Report Abuse
I personally think that this is not window dressing. Use about 10M ringgit for window dressing? erm... I dont think so la.. If you see TIMEDOT performance today, then I will say it window dressing la. Lol..
2017-02-28 18:15 | Report Abuse
Winningpost, congrat to you. My average price is about 0.17x.. I enter it too early, start to collect it when it is 0.30, lol. Too optimistic at that time.
2017-02-28 18:14 | Report Abuse
Thanks, toto. Hope you grab some AA with good price as well.
Really congrat for those who can collect it below 2.60. If I have cash, sure will buy more at this price. Too bad.. Now only can see but no cash to buy. Hope CIMB fast fast sent me cheque. Maybe still got chance to get below 2.60 in March & April. 2017 May onward, the lowest price should be 2.8x. Lol... I will attend AGM this year, sure got person ask on special dividend! haha.. will collect some bullet and buy at live. Haha..
Stock: [CAPITALA]: CAPITAL A BERHAD
2017-03-11 10:33 | Report Abuse
wiki123, is it direct transfer to your account or physical cheque to your house?