ADVANTAGEOUS TO OPT FOR DIVIDEND REINVESYMENT
OPTION BCOS IT IS BASED ON ONLY RM1.00 COMPARED
TO MARKET PRICE OF1.03.
NEXT NEAR TERM CATALYSTS INCLUDE VERY GOOD 4Q/FULL YEAR
PROFITS N A HIGH FINAL DIVIDEND (LIKELY TO BE A COMPOSITE
OF ANOTHER CASH + TREASURY SHARES (IT ALSO GOT ALMOST
20 MILLIONS SHARES TREADURY SHARES IN HAND PLUS
RM1 BILLION CASH IN ITS BALANCE SHEET.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

DONT UNDERSTAND SUCH GIBBERISH

I THINK U MAY BE RIGHT. NOTED THAT THERE WAS NO REJECTION BY EITHER PARTY. JUST BANK NEGARA APPROVAL FOR MERGER TALKS HAD LAPSED DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINT. HOPEFULLY THEY CAN ASK FOR TIME EXTENSION TO CONTINUE NEGOTIATIONS.

Daiwa Securities to buy a minority stake in Affin failed to materialise.
How now?

NO ISSUES HERE
ALL ARE ENTITLED TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
OPINIONS N JUDGEMENTS OR STRATEGIES.
BUT THERE NO ULTERIOR MOTIVES IN JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THE FUNDAMENTAL FACTS BASED
PUBLISHED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS N OFFICIAL
ANNOUNCEMENTS.
MOREOVER NO ONE CAN BE SURE HOW SHARE PRICES MOVE.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL INVESTORS . ALL N SUNDRY

ALREADY ACCUMULATED TREASURY SHARES 20,096,035
AVAILABLE TO BE DISTRIBUTED

NOTED FROM ITS BALANCE SHEET GOT CASH IN HAND RM1 Billion as at 30/9/16
plus increasing quarterly profits plus much lower gearing = ability to pay good dividends.
A UNIVERSAL POSITIVE ON DIVIDENDS. IT BENEFITS ALL. BOTH MAJOR AND ORDINARY SHARE HOLDERS

MY FIGURE FOR CAPITAL GAINS RM 85.1M FOR FY2016 WAS CORRECT AS IT COMPRISED SALES OF 4 PROPERTIES (of which d Pudu property is just one of them.) I WAS REFERRING TO CAPITAL GAINS. NOT THEIR SALES VALUES WHICH WERE MUCH HIGHER. EG D SALE OF D ONE TO KENANGA INVESTMENT BANK WAS RM140M. (plse refer to the 4 properties sales details in my post on 5/12/16)
IN ADDITION to RM85.1m CAPITAL GAIN WHICH WILL BOOST UP 2016 PROFITS, THE NET SALES PROCEEDS OF RM313M (after settling related bank loans) will increase TROP'S FREE CASH FLOWS WHICH AUGERS WELL FOR HIGHER DIVIDENDS.

With d above announcement confirming the completion of d sale on 31/12/16, a summarised review n update is timely:-
A strong set of results for 2016 is very likely based on
. rising sequential quarterly profits had been seen
( 1Q 16m. 2Q 33m. 3Q 37m. 4Q expected to be higher due to asset disposals as detailed on 4/12/16.
( re-summarised here: Total capit gain 85.1m. Total net cash proceeds 313m)
These financial data plus its unbilled sales of 2.6b are indicative of very good/bumper 4Q profits.
Full year profits for 2016 should be excellent.

Will be getti.g our Interim Dividend 2.5 sen soon.
With expected 4Q/full yr profits to b very good, we should be getting a higher FINAL DIVIDEND.

LAST YEAR PAID DIVIDEND 7 SEN.

THIS YEAR LIKELY TO BE 7.388 SEN
(interim 2.5 sen plus final 4.838 sen comprising cash D 3.5 sen and Treasury shares 1.338/100)

(JUST MY ESTIMATE. HOPE MY WISH WILL COME TRUE IN FEBRUARY 2017.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ll

MANAGEMENT EXPERTISE IS THE KEY TO GOOD BUSINESS PERFORMANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY. WITHOUT THESE, AN ISLAMIC BANK LICENCE WILL NOT ENSURE GOOD RESULTS.

WHEN IT HAD ALREADY PERFORMED BELOW EXPECTATIONS CAUSING IT TO HAVING TO CARRY OUT ITS DELINQUENT LOANS/IMPAIRMENT PROVISIONS OF AT LEAST RM1.6B OVER 2 YEARS, WILL IT BE ABLE TO DO WELL EVEN AS AN ISLAMIC BANK ?

DESPITE 3 RIGHTS ISSUES WITH INJECTIONS OF SO MUCH FRESH CAPITAL, ITS BUSINESS RESULTS ARE STILL NOT GOOD ENOUGH BY ALL FINANCIAL MEASUREMENTS.

USA FUNDS ARE ALSO ATTRACTED BY THE BULLISH NEW YORK STOCK MARKETS

USA BASED FUNDS ARE SELLING DOWN THEIR SHARES TO REPATRIATE BACK TO USA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF:
NEW US PRESIDENT OFFERING TAX AMNESTY FOR SUCH FUNDS TO GO BACK
HIGHER/RISING INTEREST RATES IN USA COMPARED TO MALAYSIA
WEAKENING RINGGIT TREND. HENCE SELL EARLIER B4 LOSE MORE IN FX
GENTING BHD HAS USA FUNDS OWNING IT. SEE THEIR SELLING

BE CAREFUL PEOPLE

THERE ARE COGENT REASONS FOR THE WEAKENED PRICE TRENDS.
NEW US PRESIDENT GOING TO OFFER TAX AMNESTY FOR USA FUNDS INVESTED OVERSEAS SHARE MARKETS OR PARKED OVERSEAS BY US COMPANIES
TO REPATRIATE SUCH FUNDS BACK TO USA. IN ADDITION THE RISING INTEREST RATES IN USA ARE VERY POWERFUL FACTORS TO GO BACK TO USA TO
EARN MORE INCOMES. PLUS THEY ALSO WANT TO AVOID LOSING MORE ON FX IN FUTURE DUE TO THE WEAKENING TREND OF OUR RINGGIT/USD.

ALL COMBINED BECOMES VERY POWERFUL PULL FACTORS FOR US BASED FUNDS TO SELL DOWN THEIR SHARES
.USA BASED FUNDS ARE HOLDING LOTS OF GENTING BHD SHARES.

SO BE CAREFUL, GUYS

IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR MBSB TO CONSIDER. WHAT IS THE QUALITY OF THE LOAN ASSETS OF AFB? WILL IT BECOME AN ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL BURDEN TO MBSB?
MBSB IS ALREADY HIT BY HIGH LOANS IMPAIRMENTS OF ITS OWN. WILL ANY TAKEOVER AGGRAVATE ITS IMPAIRMENT PROVISIONINGS?

AGREED. IF THIIS ONE IS DOING WELL , THEN WHY DO PRESENT OWNERS WANT
TO SELL IT?.

GKENT MADE ANNOUNCEMENT VIA BURSA THAT THEY WON CONTRACT FOR THE HOSPITAL CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT TODAY.
DOES THIS MEAN GADANG HAD LOST ITS BID FOR THIS CONTRACT ?

GKENT MADE ANNOUNCEMENT VIA BURSA THAT THEY WON CONTRACT FOR THE HOSPITAL CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT TODAY.
DOES THIS MEAN GADANG HAD LOST ITS BID FOR THIS CONTRACT ?

Well said. After a long consolidation the timing will be just right.
From now onwards all will be good news.
Fixing the interim dividend ex date, releasing a strong set of 4Q/full year results together with a good Final Dividend. All set to happen any time now to ride on the year end rally followed by the CNY Rally and boosted by the General Election

3 OUT OF 4 SALES OF NON CORE ASSET DISPOSALS COMPLETED THIS YEAR

GOOD NEWS. PUDU PROPERTY DALE RM58M COMPLETED

IMPROVING OUTLOOK FOR TROPICANA
===================================
LIKELY REBOUND AND START OF A NEW UPTREND IN ITS SHARE PRICE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING BULLISH CATALYSTS:-

RISING UPTREND IN QUARTERLY PROFITS
1Q 16M
2Q 33M
3Q 37M
4Q (very strong profits likely based on “The Group recorded 3Q revenue of RM357.1 million, a surge of 46.0% compared to the same quarter last year. Cumulative nine months revenue was RM1.0 billion, an increase of 5.7% compared to RM947.8 million in the same period last year.
The property developer said a one-off gain on disposals of properties and a subsidiary of RM161.7 registered in the previous corresponding period caused the Group to record lower profit before tax (“PBT”) of RM53.4 million in 3Q and RM127.3 million in the cumulative nine months period in 2016. Excluding the aforementioned one-off gain, the Group’s net profit for the quarter and cumulative nine months were higher by RM39.8 million respectively compared to the same quarter and nine months period a year ago. With an unbilled sales of RM2.6 billion, the Group remains well-positioned to achieve its full-year sales target of RM1.2 billion, anchored by encouraging demand for its developments within prime locations, coupled with its 17 on-going projects and strategic approaches to unlock the value of over 1,300 acres of prime land with potential gross development value in excess of RM50.0 billion
EXPECTED STRONG 4Q PROFITS AND A HIGH FINAL DIVIDEND (comprising a cash dividend and Treasury share dividend will boost up its share price in a CNY RALLY).
STRONGER 4Q PROFITS TO BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASED CORE EARNINGS RECORDED IN 3Q (after excluding one off gains registered in the previous corresponding Q)
PLUS THE CAPTURING OF CAPITAL GAINS IN THE COMING 4Q ENDING 31/12/2016 FROM THE FOLLOWING DISPOSALS :-
SALES VALUE (properties) CAPITAL GAINS NET CASH PROCEEDS STATUS
140M DiJaya Plaza 8.9M 51.6M COMPLETED
24.9M Damansara Intan 18.2M 18.6M COMPLETED
58.0M PUDU Sky Express 2.5M 24.4M BY 5/12/2106
570M PULAI Lands (Johor) 55.5M 218.4M S&P 1/7/2106
(TOTAL CAPITAL GAINS RM85.1M. AND NET CASH PROCEEDS RM313M)
(NET CASH RECEIPTS ARE AFTER REPAYMENT OF ALL RELATED LOANS)
(THESE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN BORROWINGS . GEARING
RATIOS WILL BE LOWERED WHICH WILL INCREASE FUTURE PROFITS DUE TO POSITIVE IMPACTS ON REDUCED BANK INTEREST COSTS AND ALSO INCREASING FREE CASH FLOWS FOR HIGHER CASH DIVIDENDS)

OTHER STRONG FINANCIALS
NTA RM2.19
PAR VALUE RM1.00
RETAINED EARNINGS RM1.08B
CASH ND BANK BALANCES (as at 30/9/16) RM970M
GEARING REDUCED FROM 7.7x PREVIOUSLY TO < 3.0x (Excluding recent early full redemption of its Medium Term Notes of RM280M)
Tropicana is becoming very Cash Rich.

OTHER POSITIVE INDICATORS
NO EXPOSURES TO ANY FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS (no adverse financial impact even if our Ringgit values were to go down further)
GOOD EARNINGS VISIBILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS
Supported by unbilled sales of RM2.6B and 17 ongoing projects where sales are still satisfactory (despite a generally softer property market) due to their prime locations, mainly in KL, PJ, Selangor )

NEAR TERM CATALYSTS FOR NEW PRICE UPTREND
OVERSEAS STOCK MARKETS LED BY USA DOW INDEX ARE BULLISH AS THE TRUMP RALLY-SANTA RALLY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO 2017.
OUR BURSA AND TROPICANA SHARE PRICE CAN RIDE ON THESE RALLIES
AND BECOME OUR SANTA-YEAR END AND CHINESE NEW YEAR RALLIES.
(aided by year end window dressing and anticipated Early General Election in mid-2017)
BRIGHT PROSPECTS SUPPORTED BY EXPECTED STRONG 4Q PROFITS AND HIGHER
DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND CNY. FINAL DIVIDENDS ARE ALWAYS HIGHER (especially when the company’s fundamentals are strong and profits are increasing)
(Disclaimer: MY ABOVE COMMENTS ARE PURELY MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS AND ARE merely to share the interesting observations I made in i3investor. Nothing in this article should be considered as investment advice nor is intended to be investment advice. NO
BUY OR SELL CALLS HERE)

Always better to be prudent when doing share investments with our hard earned money.

POS share price's 52 week low was also 2.04 and had already doubled recently when it hit 4.19. Hence we also need to be alert on its downside risks

Its subsidiary POs's latest Q results is OK but its share price had also dropped back from 4.19 to 3.85

Someone said its currently fully valued.

Maybe its already overvalued.

Checked DRB's 52 wk low price was 0.775

What's going to happen if its coming Q results report another huge multi million loss ? Bearing in mind its Proten is not doing well

Can its share price re visit its low price>

Checked DRB's 52 wk low was 0.775.

If its coming

ADDITIONAL POSITIVES ARE THE REASONABLY MUCH LOWER GEARING (A HIGH OF 7.7x a few years ago TO ITS CURRENT 3x due to disposals of large non core assets)

Tropicana has actually paid 7 sen D last year INCLUDING TREASURY SHARES. HENCE WILL MOST LIKELY DISTRIBUTE ITS HOLDINGS OF 20.1M SUCH SHARES AS PART OF ITS FINAL D FOR 2016.

FOR 2016M I NOW THINK TROPICANA WILL MORE LIKELY SIMPLIFY THEIR DIVIDENDS BY HAVING ONLY 2 PAYMENTS i.e. 1st interim of 2.5 sen (just declared) Plus 1 Final D WHICH WILL LIKELY NE A COMBINATION OF CASH D 3.5 SEN AND 1.388 TREASURY SHARE DIVIDEND (to be announced together with their 4Q/FULL YEAR RESULTS DURING FEBRUARY 2017)

TOTAL DIVIDENDS CAN STILL TOTAL 7.388 SEN.

JUST SAFELY BUY AND ACCUMULATE FOR SUCH HIGH DIVIDEND YIELDS TO BE COLLECTED IN ABOUT 3 MONTHS TIME.

(NOTE. ALREADY HAVE 20.1M TREASURY SHARES = 1.388 SHARE D PER 100 SHARES HELD)

OTHER FUNDAMENTALS INCLUDE NTA RM2.19
UNBILLED SALES RM2.6B GIVING GOOD EARNINGS VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT 3 YEARS AS THESE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COLLECTED FROM PURCHASERS.
STILL GOT VAST LANDBANKS IN PRIME AREAS IN KL, PJ, WITH GDV WORTH RM50B.
LAST YEAR PAID 7 SEN DIVIDENDS

LAST YEAR PAID 7 SEN DIVIDENDS (OVER 2 INTERIMS PLUS THE FINAL DIVIDEND)

THIS YEAR JUST DECLARED 1ST INTERIM 2.5 SEN FOR ITS 3Q RESULTS

HOPEFULLY IT WILL GIVE A 2ND INTERIM D WHEN RELEASING ITS 4Q RESULTS (AS AT 31/12/16) NEXT FEB 2017. THIS WILL BE GREAT AS WE CAN THEN POSSIBLY GETS A FINAL D (MAKING A TOTAL OF 3 DIVIDENDS AGAIN LIKE LAST YEAR) FOR ITS FULL YEAR RESULTS. THIS 2ND INTERIM CAN BE IN THE FORM OF FREE TREASURY SHARES. IT NOW ALREADY HAS AT LEAST 2O.1M TREASURY SHARES EQUIVALENT TO 1.388 SHARES PER EVERY 100 SHARES HELD( OR ABOUT 1.388 SEN SHARES DIVIDEND)

NORMALLY A FINAL DIVIDEND WILL BE PAID (ESPECIALLY FOR COMPANIES LIKE TROP WHO ARE NOW CASH RICH FROM DISPOSALS OF LARGE VALUE NON CORE ASSETS WHICH HAD REDUCED ITS GEARING FROM 7.7x to now <3 x AND WHOSE BUSINESS IS STILL CONSIDERED VERY PROFITABLE). LET SAY 3.5 SEN AS FINAL D.

TOTAL DIVIDENDS FOR 2016 WILL THEN BE :-

1ST INTERIM (DECLARED) 2.5 SEN CASH

2ND INTERIM (HOPEFULLY) 1.388 SEN EQUIVALENT OF 1.388 TREASURY SHARES

FINAL D (NORMALLY GIVEN) 3,5 SEN CASH (ESTIMATE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LIKELY TOTAL DIVIDENDS = 7.388 SEN
==========================================================================

TROPICANA SHARES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BEAUTIFULLY HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD STOCK AT 7.388 SEN OR 7.388% (EXCEEDING LAST YEAR'S 7SEN)

(MUCH HIGHER THAN BANK FIXED DEPOSITS OF 3 TO 4 % PER ANNUM i.e.. FOR A FULL 12 MONTH PLACEMENT)
TROPICANA'S DIVIDEND ESTIMATED YIELD OF 7.388% GIVES MUCH HIGHER RETURNS AND YOU NEED TO WAIT ONLY FOR 3 SHORT MONTHS (DEC 2016 TO FEB 2017 with the 1st interim d receivable soon)

I PERSONALLY LOVES TROPICANA SHARES FOR ITS STRONG FUNDAMENTALS (NTA RM2.19) AND ITS VERY ATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND YIELDS.

MBSB'S CURRENT 2 YEAR IMPAIRMENT PROGRAMME FOR RM1.4B IS TO IMPLEMENTED UP TO 2017.

SINCE THE IFRS9 IS TO IMPLEMENTED FROM 2018 THIS COULD POSSIBLY MEAN ITS IMPAIRMENT AMOUNT WOULD
INCREASED AND EXTENDED AT LEAST INTO 2018

JAY. YOUR POINTS ON THE ACTUAL DECLINING PROFITABILITY OF MBSB (EXCLUDING ITS IMPAIRMENT FACTOR) OF ITS PAST FEW YEARS ARE REVEALING.

MEANS WE NOW HAVE TO CONSIDER THE SITUATION WHEREBY MBSB'S PROSPECTS MAY NOT BE THAT PROMISING BASED ON THE COMBINED
NEGATIVE FACTORS OF DECLINING CORE EARNINGS PLUS HIGHER PROVISIONS/IMPAIRMENT OVER AND ABOVE ITS CURRENT IMPAIRMENT OF RM1.4B DUE TO THE ACCOUNTING REQUIREMENTS UNDER IFRS9

JAY. IT SEEMS U ARE FROM AN ACCOUNTING OR BUSINESS FINANCE BACKGROUND.
THE IFRS 9 SENSITIVITY TESTS CITED TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT BANKS AND FINANCIAL LENDERS BY INCREASING THEIR PROVISIONS/IMPAIRMENTS BY 30% TO 300%. IS HUGE AND SCARY. HENCE PLSE ASSIST TO CLARIFY HOW THE IMPENDING IFRS 9 WORKS (NO NEED TO BE DETAILED. JUST ITS MAIN PROVISIONS)

AGREED . STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
NTA OR AUDITED VALUE OF EACH SHARE IS RM2.15
PAR VALUE RMI
1Q PROFIT 16M
2QCPROFIT 33M
YTD 1H YEAR PROFIT RM49M
2Q PROFIT DOUBLED THAT OF 1Q
RISING PROFITS LIKELY TO SEE COMING 3Q PROFITS TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER.
HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD STOCK. LAST YEAR PAID 7 sen dividends

ANNOUNCEMENTS NEXT FEW DAYS

IN LARGE SCALE BUSINESS OPERATIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME FOREIGN/INTERNATIONAL CONTRACTS, 2 CRITICAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER ARE
(A) ANY HIGH BORROWINGS/GEARINGS IN PARTICULAR IF GOT BIG FOREIGN CURRENCY DENOMINATED LOANS
(B) OUR FOREIGN EXCHANGE RM/USD LOANS EXPOSURES

IF THE ABOVE ARE BIG, THEN EVEN MORE CONCERNS BCOS WHEN OUR RINGGIT GOES DOWN A LOT (HAPPENING NOW)THEN SUCH FOREIGN LOANS WILL JUST BLOW UP IN RINGGIT VALUES AND THE BORROWING COMPANIES WILL BE HIT BADLY.

MEANWHILE EXCESSIVELY HIGH BORROWINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS YOUR BUSINESS MARGINS = HIGH BANK INTEREST COSTS = TO LOW PROFITABILITY

IT ACTUALLY TOOK TROPICANA 3 TO 4 YEARS TO REDUCE ITS GEARING FROM 7.7x to its present < 3x which is safe and comfortable and which must be the gearing level to be aimed for by WCT

WCT’s 9M16 core net profit of RM73.9m came in below our expectation, making up 64% of FY16 net profit.
Net gearing increased to 0.9x
We retain our forecasts and recommendation pending management guidance and analyst briefing to be held later today
HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of RM1.68. Quarterly numbers fell but improved on yearly basis.

ABOVE ARE SOME COMMENTS FROM ANALYSTS
=========================================
EXCESSIVELY HIGH BORROWINGS WITH GEARING AT 9x is a big concern.
Need to undertake a degearing exercise which could take some years to achieve

OR MAYBE CURRENT SHARE PRICE AT 4.10 HAD ALREADY REACHED
SOME ANALYSTS PRICE TARGETS

HI CHAR. DID SOME CHECKING. JUST REALISED
POS SHARE PRICE HAD ALREADY DOUBLED.
THIS ALERTED ME TO YOUR VIEW THAT AT CUTRRNT PRICE POS CD BE ALREADY FULLY VALUED.
WHAT ARE YOUR BASIS TO COME TO THIS CONCLUSION? ITS CURRENT P.E.?
SOME

EXPECTING A GOOD 3Q RESULTS N PROFITS PLUS A DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT OF A COMBINED CASH DIVIDEND AND TREASURY SHARE DISTRIBUTION.
WILL BECOME PART OF THE COMING SANTA CLAUS RALLY + YEAR END/CNY RALLY.

1Q RESULTS N PROFITS WERE BETTER . 2Q RESULTS TO BE OUT SOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER. OF COURSE ANY TIE-UPS WITH ALI BABA, THE GLOBAL GIANT IN WORLD E-COMMERCE (SIMILIAR TO THAT WITH SINGPOS ) WILL BE EXCELLENT.
HIGHER 2 Q PROFITS AND THE ANTICIPATED SANTA CLAUS/YEAR END RALLY WILL BE BULLISH FOR POS SHARE PRICES

AGREEC CORE EARNINGS ARE IMPORTANT. STIL THE REVOCATION DEAL WILL REDUCE ITS BORROWINGS BY QUITE A BIG AMOUNT OF RM147M CASH THUS REDUCING ITS INTEREST COSTS N INCREASE ITS CORE EARNINGS.
AGM THIS WEDNESDAY.
ANYONE GOING CAN ASK HOW WCT IN PAVILON GROUP CAN BENEFIT MALTON

IN ADDITION TO THE RM50M REVOCATION FEE TO BE RECEIVED , ECOWORLD WILL ALSO PAY OFF RELATED LOAN OF RM97M THUS REDUCING MALTONS BORROWINGS/ GEARING N INTEREST COSTS, A POSITIVE FOR FUTURE PROFITS

1Q RESULTS JUST MISSED THE RM50M REVOCATION FEE FROM ECOWORLD. THE EXTRAORDINARY CAPITAL GAIN OF RM36.6 M WILL THUS BE REGISTERED IN THE 2Q RESULTS
CAN EXPECT NEXT Q PROFITS TO JUMP UP

HI, I AM STILL HOLDING SOME MALTON.

UPDATING ON MBSB LOAN IMPAIRMENT PROGRAMME
==============================================
SINCE WE ARE NOW DISCUSSING ON MBSB’S COMING 3Q RESULTS, IT MAY BE TIMELY TO EXCHANGE VIEWS AND ANALYSIS ON THE ATTACHED REPORT WHICH I HAD JUST CAME ACROSS :-

HOW WILL THIS RISING TRENDS IN PERSONAL LOAN DEFAULTS & DELIQUINCIES AFFECT MBSB?
DOES IT NEED TO INCREASE ITS PROVISIONINGS FOR ITS IMPAIRMENT AMOUNT FROM RM1.4B ? OR DOES IT HAVE TO EXTEND ITS IMPAIRMENT PERIOD TO BEYOND 2017?

My own personal observations:-
1 : Malaysian household indebtedness at 89% of GDP is among the highest in Asia. In a slowing economy many borrowers will find it increasingly hard to service their loans. Aggravated by increasing inflation (rising cost of living like GST, withdrawals of subsidies for essentials like electricity, petrol, tolls, public transports, cooking oils, etc) compounded by falling Ringgit value where all imported goods & services and overseas expenses like foreign university fees are all becoming more costly.
2 : Slowing, softer property markets, especially in the apartments & condos sectors also directly affected the borrowers’ ability to service their loans. More n more borrowers with multiple properties are finding it difficult to sell or rent out their apartments. Rentals had also dropped by 30%. Hence unrented or rented at 30% less are causing the rising stress and defaults among borrowers especially in the personal loans and housing loans sectors.
(Attached article appeared in www.theedgemarkets.com on 7/11/2016. Unable to copy & paste the financial figure given on “market share of top players in personal loan/financing” and on “GIL or gross impairments loans”.
(plse refer to
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/rising-stress-personal-loan-space


Rising stress in personal loan space
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sat, 5 Nov 2016, 05:35 PM
________________________________________
By Surin Murugiah / theedgemarkets.com | November 5, 2016 : 9:46 AM MYT




KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 5): Personal loans in the banking system have seen steady growth despite the weaker economy, according to the Edge weekly.
In its latest edition, the magazine however said there are increasing signs of stress bubbling in that space that bear watching. It is the only loan segment within the household sector where gross impaired loans (GIL), in absolute terms, are continuing to grow at a rapid double-digit annual pace this year.
The Edge’s Adeline Paul Raj wrote that it is also the segment with the highest GIL ratio in the household sector.
The weekly reported that as at September this year, GIL in the personal loan segment grew 31.7% year on year to RM1.37 billion, according to Bank Negara Malaysia’s latest monthly statistics on the banking system. The growth pace was much faster than that in the credit card (5% to RM496.3 million) and mortgage (2.9% to RM5.31 billion) segments.
On a year-to-date basis, GIL growth in the personal loan segment stood at 15.1%, compared with 3.4% in credit cards and 5.6% in mortgages, it said.
The magazine cited a banking analyst as pointing out that as far back as August 2010, only 3.2% of the banking system’s total non-performing loans came from the personal loan segment, but the proportion has since grown to 5.6% as at September this year.
The Edge said the GIL ratio for personal loans, while still relatively low, has crept up over the year from 1.87% as at December 2015. It deteriorated to 2.1% as at September, higher than the overall banking system’s GIL ratio of 1.6%. It was also the third highest GIL ratio of all loan segments after construction (7.21%) and working capital (2.5%).
Bankers who The Edge spoke to say they are closely monitoring the asset quality situation, but are also quick to point out that personal loans account for only a small portion of overall banking loans.
Indeed, to put things in perspective, Bank Negara’s data shows that as at September, personal loans accounted for just 4.4% or RM65.34 billion of total loans outstanding in the banking system. And, they accounted for about 9% of outstanding household loans.
For details on the direction of personal loans in the country and the stress from it, read the Edge for the week of Nov 7 – Nov 13 available at newsstands now.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/rising-stress-personal-loan-space

THE UNEXPECTED TURN OF EVENTS FOR THE US ELECTIONS AND THE WORLD STOCK MARTS BECOMING BULLISH DID CAUSED ME TO MISS SOME MONEY MAKING OPPORTUNITIES.
I DO NOT WISH TO ALSO MISS OUT ON TROPICANA NOW

LET HOPE MY RENEWED CONFIDENCE IN BURSA ESPECIALLY TROP WILL BE REWARDING.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL

HI. MY FEARS AS DESCRIBED IN MY EARLIER POSTS ALSO CITED THE US PRESDIENTIAL ELECTIONS BASED ON THE DIRE FORECASTS IF TRUMP WINS. IN FACT MY FEARS WERE PROVEN AS ON THE 8/11 AS TRUMPS WAS ON COURSE TO WIN WORLD MARKETS FELL A LOT, INCLUDING OUR BURSA. AND THE DOW FUTURES INDEX WAS DOWN 900 POINTS.
HENCE MY DECISION TO EXIT BURSA INCLUDING TROP WAS JUSTIFIED. BUT REGRETTABLY THE DOW UNEXPECTEDLY TURNED UP 330 POINTS INSTEAD OF CRASHING. AND IT RALLIED FOR 7 DAYS.
HENCE TRUMP PRESIDENCY TURNED WORLD MARTS BULLISH FOR HIS PRO GROWTH POLICIES. THESE ARE THE REASONS I HAD ALSO NOW TURNED BULLISH. I AM NOW BUYING BACK INTO THE MARKET, INCLUDING TROP. WHY TROP AGAIN? I WAS IN BOTH MALTON AND TROP. WHILE MALTON WENT UP 26% TROP HAS NOT YET REBOUND UP. BOTH ARE FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG. TROP IS IN FACT HAS MUCH BETTER FUNDAMENTALS. AND I NOW BELIEVE 3Q RESULTS TO BE OUT THIS MONTH WILL BE GOOD (RM3B UNBILLED SALES GIVES GOOD EARNINGS VISIBILITY. ITS MUCH LOWER GEARINGS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS WILL REDUCE ITS BANK INTEREST COSTS A LOT. IT MUST HAVE GOOD FREE CASH FLOWS AS IT EARLY SETTLED ITS RM250M MEDIUM TERM NOTES RECENTLY, ETC)
I GOT BACK MY CONFIDENCE IN TROP BASED ON THE ABOVE AND I BELIEVE ITS 3Q PROFITS WILL BE GREAT. TROP HAD NOW RESUMED BUYING BACK ITS OWN SHARES. ABT 19.8M TREASURY SHARES ARE NOW AVAILABLE FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION TO SHAREHOLDERS. ALSO SINCE THEY OMITTED ANY INTERIM D FOR THE 1ST 2 Q RESULTS, I BELIEVE DIVIDENDS(CASH D + TREASURY SHARES) WILL BE GIVEN WHEN ITS 3Q RESULTS ARE ANNOUNCED ANY TIME IN NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS

GIVEN THE RIGHT GOOD NEWS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS (HIGHER 3Q RESULTS/PROFITS PLUS DIVIDENDS, TROP SHARE PRICE CAN MOVE UP.

MY PAST HAPPY EXPERIENCE. A FEW TIMES BOUGHT AROUND 1.02 SOLD BETWEEN 1.18 TO 1.28. IN SOME CASES ALSO REAPED ITS DIVIDENDS AS WELL.
SOLID FUNDAMENTALS. MY CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN

TROPICANA : A REVIEW AND UPDATE
================================
LIKELY REBOUND AND START OF A NEW UPTREND IN ITS SHARE PRICE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING BULLISH CATALYSTS:-
1) IT IS EVEN MUCH MORE UNDERVALUED THAN MALTON.
TROP NTA 2.15.
WHILE MALTON’S NTA IS 1.60, MALTON’S SHARE PRICE HAD ALREADY RECENTLY RISEN A LOT (FROM 0.60 TO 0.755 A VERY GOOD UP 26%)
WHEREAS TROPICANA’S SHARE PRICE IS STILL AT ITS LOW OF 1.01.
TROP’S SHARE PRICE SHOULD BE THE NEXT TO MOVE UP.

2) LAST FEW YEARS TROP SOLD MULTI BILLIONS WORTH OF NON- CORE ASSETS. MORE CASH INFLOWS EXPECTED FROM THE RECENT SALE OF ITS PUDU PROPERTY FOR 58M AND ITS JOHORE LAND FOR 570M.
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED ITS BORROWINGS/GEARING FROM HIGH 7.7x to THE COMFORTABLE less than 3x NOW.
FREE CASH FLOWS HAD IMPROVED SO MUCH THAT IT RECENTLY MADE AN EARLY SETTLEMENT OF RM250M OF ITS MEDIUM TERM NOTES(LOAN). GEARING WILL BE REDUCED FURTHER, THUS REDUCING ITS INTEREST COSTS AND INCREASE ITS PROFITS.
3) EXPECTING ITS 3Q RESULTS/PROFITS TO JUMP UP DUE TO STILL SUCCESSFUL LAUNCHES OF ITS PROJECTS DUE TO THEIR PRIME LOCATIONS. 3Q PROFITS TO BE BOOSTED BY MUCH LOWER INTEREST COSTS AS BORROWINGS HAD BEEN GREATLY REDUCED FROM SALES OF LARGE VALUE NON- CORE ASSETS.

PROSPECTIVE GOOD DIVIDENDS ANNOUNCEMENTS IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.
LAST YEAR PAID A GOOD 7 SEN.DIVIDEND, ONE OF THE HIGHEST DIVIDEND YIELDS IN BURSA
LIKELY TO ANNOUNCE AN INTERIM DIVIDEND (A COMBINED CASH DIVIDEND AND TREASURY SHARES ( TODATE ALREADY HAS 19.8M TREASURY SHARES)
GETTING VERY POSITIVE AND OPTIMISTIC ON TROPICANA SHARE PRICE
TIME TO MOVE UP AFTER A VERY LONG CONSOLIDATION
(the above comments are my personal views & evaluation n for exchange n discussions)

UPDATING ON MBSB LOAN IMPAIRMENT PROGRAMME
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOW WILL THIS RISING TRENDS IN PERSONAL LOAN DELINQUENCIES AFFECT MBSB?
DO IT NEED TO INCREASE ITS PROVISIONINGS FOR ITS IMPAIRMENT AMOUNT FROM RM1.4B OVER 2 YEARS ? OR HAVE TO EXTEND IT TO BEYOND 2017?

Rising stress in personal loan space
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sat, 5 Nov 2016, 05:35 PM
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By Surin Murugiah / theedgemarkets.com | November 5, 2016 : 9:46 AM MYT



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 5): Personal loans in the banking system have seen steady growth despite the weaker economy, according to the Edge weekly.
In its latest edition, the magazine however said there are increasing signs of stress bubbling in that space that bear watching. It is the only loan segment within the household sector where gross impaired loans (GIL), in absolute terms, are continuing to grow at a rapid double-digit annual pace this year.
The Edge’s Adeline Paul Raj wrote that it is also the segment with the highest GIL ratio in the household sector.
The weekly reported that as at September this year, GIL in the personal loan segment grew 31.7% year on year to RM1.37 billion, according to Bank Negara Malaysia’s latest monthly statistics on the banking system. The growth pace was much faster than that in the credit card (5% to RM496.3 million) and mortgage (2.9% to RM5.31 billion) segments.
On a year-to-date basis, GIL growth in the personal loan segment stood at 15.1%, compared with 3.4% in credit cards and 5.6% in mortgages, it said.
The magazine cited a banking analyst as pointing out that as far back as August 2010, only 3.2% of the banking system’s total non-performing loans came from the personal loan segment, but the proportion has since grown to 5.6% as at September this year.
The Edge said the GIL ratio for personal loans, while still relatively low, has crept up over the year from 1.87% as at December 2015. It deteriorated to 2.1% as at September, higher than the overall banking system’s GIL ratio of 1.6%. It was also the third highest GIL ratio of all loan segments after construction (7.21%) and working capital (2.5%).
Bankers who The Edge spoke to say they are closely monitoring the asset quality situation, but are also quick to point out that personal loans account for only a small portion of overall banking loans.
Indeed, to put things in perspective, Bank Negara’s data shows that as at September, personal loans accounted for just 4.4% or RM65.34 billion of total loans outstanding in the banking system. And, they accounted for about 9% of outstanding household loans.
For details on the direction of personal loans in the country and the stress from it, read the Edge for the week of Nov 7 – Nov 13 available at newsstands now.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/rising-stress-personal-loan-space.

(Disclaimer: just sharing latest news. Not Calls to buy or sell any shares)

ABOVE ARE JUST MY PERSONAL ANXIETIES.
NOT CALLS TO BUY OR SELL ANY SHARES, ETC