I just topped up...

In which case u should get the hell out of stocks and this portal...and wait for the storm to clear before coming back as panic seller 2 or 3 or 4 or 999...LOL..

To the naysayers,

Major shareholders, Chua transferred WB to Tee at 0.35c recently and both converted a lot of WB at strike price of 0.54 before ex date. Why should they convert when they could have sold WB say around 0.40c...? Go figure it out guys...

Total WB converted is about 28 million raising more than RM15 million for the company...

Posted by cksam > Dec 16, 2020 6:07 PM | Report Abuse

It's not easy to buy back. Sometimes some stocks will shoot up on the ex day. You might be caught buying expensive. But the second day onwards it will come down. We are humans and always have this fear of missing out.

Total homeritz-wb as of today is 57.392 million. Before ex it was 75 million. So the total number of wb actually decreased by about 18 million. And the ex price is 0.43. If you go to the top of this page and click warrant and you can see. There is 0 % premium because (0.285+0.43) = 0.715.

So i reckon homeritz-wb is still a very good bet as it is still within the money.

cksam

Yes...It is good bet at current prices with 0 premium and gearing of 2.5 x. WB holders before ex date also benefited from additional WB and lower conversion price...excellent...

Based on the additional WB credited, it represents about 18% extra...hopefully it will up to price before ex...than its a homer..

U r right...but he could have sold and bought back cheaper...

Apparently 2 days after submission by company

Posted by alvin1188 > Dec 14, 2020 10:02 AM | Report Abuse

yalo... why the mother price is not (RM1.03/5)*4 = 82.5sen? Why 78.5sen? Anyone knows?

Alvin,

I am also very puzzled...

Probably good time to buy now. Should go up in few days...

Posted by Sky8020 > Dec 8, 2020 12:54 PM | Report Abuse

current homeritz-wb holder.. after bonus issues ex date.. will get additional warrant WB right?

Sky...

If my reading of page 15 of the announcement is correct, than yes additional WB in addition to adjusted exercise price. Please read and verify yourself

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company

Posted by khawking914 > Dec 8, 2020 11:39 AM | Report Abuse

Gator, do u think current price of WB is tempting ? I realize it is no longer follow the pace of mother share & selling pressure. Your thought

Khaw,

Presently at 0.385 and mother at 1.03, it is in the money with a discount of about 10% so it is attractive, ... based on the 23 m units converted to-date, the adjusted exercise price is about 0.46 on ex date and assuming the adjusted price of mother is 0.88, it should still be in the money with a slight discount. However, I believe one should get additional WB on ex date so that should compensate for the lower discount. In the short term, it depends on closing price...tenure wise it has about 1.5 years, so if price holds than u can convert and sell to profit from any discount...but as we know prices are fickle and volatile...

Posted by kens88 > Dec 7, 2020 10:48 PM | Report Abuse

What price are the free warrants worth? First time receive free warrants

Kens88

Depends on closing price on 14th...If close at say 1.10, ex date price of mother would be 1.10 x 4/5 = 0.88, ...WC price less exercise price is 0.88-0.60 = 0.28 (ignoring premium)...premium can be 20% or 30%...however, assuming premium is 10% than about 0.31 c...

So depends on closing price and whether price will head north after adjustment...last time WB went up to 0.31 c on listing when mother was about 0.70 c...at exercise price of 0.54 c, premium was about 50%...

Agreed...will break and head north...my gut feel is it will be about 1.10 to 1.15 before ex ...and after ex date,it will adjust for bonus shares before flying again...

today another 3 m WB converted so total conversion is 23 m

Expiry of WB is 3 July 2022...plenty of time to convert...

I just read pg 4, it seems that WC price will be adjusted to 0.60 c based strictly on the bonus issue and independent of the conversion of WB. In such case, WB with conversion price of 0.455 c (on assumption 20 m converted) seems attractive despite the shorter tenure.

Posted by cksam > Dec 4, 2020 1:18 PM | Report Abuse

In regards to the total homeritz-wb converted. If you refer to the above on Dec 1, maybe there was a double entry in the conversion of WB by the directors. Even in Bursa site there is also a double entry, see below on the December 1st date.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company...=1

I base my calculation from the announcements in Bursa. But when i look at the NOSH it is only 320 million or 20 million extra from the conversion. Sometimes it's damn difficult to judge from their announcement.

cksam,

Yes..there seems to be double entry...

Posted by cksam > Dec 4, 2020 1:11 PM | Report Abuse

That's what i also agreed. At first maybe i thought i was wrong. After reading page 15, i was still still unsure of the full interpretation. As follows.

1) issue up to 18,746,946 additional homeritz-wb
that's why "up to" because they don't know how many still to be converted to mother share from now till ex-date.

2) with the conversion price of homeritz-wc be adjusted from 0.75 to 0.60 (page 4)

3) Original homeritz-wb conversion price reduce from 0.54 to 0.43


So, i am not 100% sure if my interpretation is correct?

Any experts to enlightened us?

cksam,

For items 1), 2) & 3) above it is based on the assumption of no conversion...obviously this no longer holds as about 20 m WB have been converted...if this remains on ex date than exercise price should be 0.455 c based on my calculation.

Sorry, based on 20 m converted, than calculation should be 320/380 x 0.54 = 0.455 c

if 40 m, 340/385 should be 0.477 c...

and if all converted, exercise price remains the same.

This is on the premise that status quo should be maintained in which case it stands to reason therefore, adjustments for additional WB seems warranted.

Reading pg 15 again, it seems to me as a WB holder, benefits include adjustments in strike price and also additional WB units...not either or but both..

Posted by cksam > Dec 3, 2020 1:22 PM | Report Abuse

I agree with Jaynetan,I agree with Jaynetan,

"Who said existing warrants holders won't get extra warrants?"

Common sense will tell you that if Homeritz were to issue a bonus come with free warrants then what will happen to existing shareholders of homeritz-wb? If nothing is given to existing holders of warrant B then they are going to lose heavily. Because after Homeritz ex-bonus, it's share price is going to reduce by 25%. Say during ex-date it is trading at 1.00. Then after ex-date it will be trading at 0.75.

Then existing homeritz-wb will get wipe out because they don't get extra 25% new homeritzwb shares. Say at today's price of 0.40 plus exercise price (0.54), it will be 0.94 which is much higher than the mother share at 0.75. Immediately holders of homeritz-wb is losing 0.19 cents. So, who is going to hold on to their homeritz-wb?

I reckon if they are not giving free homeritz-wb then the exercise price of homeritz=wb will be lowered to 0.43. You can refer to page 15 on Bursa announcement below.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company...

In fact i think buying homeritz-wb is much more attractive as the premium is already 0.085. Or 1.03 - (0.405+0.54).

cksam,

TQ for posting the above...! Seems a bit confusing as per penultimate para of pg 15.

I think about 20 million shares have been converted and not 40 million as you mentioned.

Based on 20 million, than the adjusted strike price should be roughly 300/395 million x 0.54c = 0.41c

if 40 million than adjusted price should be 300/415 = 0.39 c

However, Mother share has additional benefit in WC. For WB, if strike price adjusted to 0.41c than it should still be in the money if x price is around RM1.

正常短期者套利，長线为守住創造资本增值。

Google translate:

Normal short-term arbitrage, long-term to create a value-added capital.

Posted by stockraider > May 2, 2018 10:50 AM | Report Abuse

>>..
One of the other catalysts for the deal: a 2020 rule change that will prevent ships from burning dirty fuel oil. The switch should boost demand for cleaner fuels that US refiners are able to produce.

<<<...

This was the big thing that probability posted before he turned and switched...now he conveniently forgets about it...nary a word..!!!

Posted by YYen Lee > May 2, 2018 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

Gator if bn lose, definitely the market will downturn right? So have to wait? I am really so scare .

-----

Difficult to say...maybe up...but HSBC say if PH wins maybe down as some of their policies are not align with economic reality. My opinion is that PH has been espousing political rhetoric that sounds good like abolishing GST but replacing with SST...It is likely that they may reduce GST rather than abolishing entirely...To make up for the shortfall, they may cut the cloth to fit by reducing expenditure and cracking down hard on wastage and corruption.

Greater worry is if we have a hung parliament and troubles starts...

Posted by YYen Lee > May 2, 2018 09:48 AM | Report Abuse

So what else can I do shittt...:(

-----
Maybe too late to cutloss. If u have faith in the stock, average down.

Alternatively, buy other stocks that are down, if u believe in recovery.

Risk is that election results if not the right outcome may result in downturn as a knee jerk reaction.

Or sit it out

Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 30, 2018 09:41 AM | Report Abuse

when this forum quiets down, and opportunists who try to contra to make quick profits lose interest in HY, it will shoot up when they least expect it.

--------

Fully agree!

Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 07:51 PM | Report Abuse

yes i have anger, my anger is purely due to this stupidity of the public as per below:

guess i had done my level best to convey...

will try to refrain from anger fueled messages further.

good luck guys..bye for now.


Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 07:31 PM | Report Abuse X

I hate it when... just because one has power & financial status...the public values them for own monetary self interest neglecting the more important principles in life.

This is precisely the reason why the country has gone down the drain...

-------

Get rid of the anger and u will reap the benefits. It is not easy but start by finding inner calm and peace. It has to be a conscious mental effort.

Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 07:48 PM | Report Abuse

when a person kept buying player it came out banker. when he finally decided to switch to banker, the wind also went against him. Spot that person you will win big

-------

LOL...but has got some logic as I have gone through the same experience in my younger days..

Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 07:27 PM | Report Abuse

I have no issues staying calm....but first ask people like mneo not to stir.

I think such messages are needed during the election period as only then some parties would be able to think out of the box...

these are the fundamental root cause of the divisions.

------

If u are vulgar with words, it reflects inner anger.

Posted by gator > Apr 29, 2018 07:21 PM | Report Abuse X

Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 06:40 PM | Report Abuse

he is a man without any substance.......worthless piece of shit.

to me he is of the most inferior genes...fxxking his female descendents would feel like fxxking a piece of plastic - doll.

this kinda of shit genes can easily be produced and replaced with A.I...

there is zero emotional satisfaction...zero values being around with such a character.

feelings, love, compassion, ethics is everything to me...

Money a billion cannot buy me sincerity and real emotions.

I dont find any value from a person like him....may be son of prostitutes like u need it (mneo).

my dog deserves a 100 time more respect than him.
--------
Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 07:02 PM | Report Abuse

well, its frustrating for me to see humans cant see the obvious...as such i may need to come up with messages that stirs deeper emotions.

why the fxxk did mneo need to bring that person and compare with me? whats his problem...

----
Posted by klee > Apr 29, 2018 07:14 PM | Report Abuse

probability,calm down,i understand how you feel....from hero to zero.
-----------

Probability,

I think u should take a break from this forum and reevaluate yourself. Perhaps u should follow Raider's example and meditate in Tibet.

And please,please bite your tongue and refrain from profanities. It will calm u down a lot. Sincerely...

And u take delight in their misery...???

I don't have the same time to be in this forum like some can eg. dragon

Posted by John_Lee > Apr 27, 2018 07:15 PM | Report Abuse

Gator tag team with Mneo counter Probability
=========
John,

MNeo posted some very good articles...I would like to do the same but my principal business is in properties..just got a fantastic buy at auction...this will give me a return on equity of about 5X in a very short time...shares are just for investing my spare cash...

Posted by chang0509 > Apr 27, 2018 06:19 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.reuters.com/article/s-oil-results/skoreas-s-oil-expects-he

SEOUL, April 25 (Reuters) - S-Oil Corp, South Korea’s third-biggest oil refiner, on Wednesday said that strong demand growth in the region would support refining margins in the second quarter of this year.

“Refining margins will be held up at a healthy level given 0.6-0.8 million barrels per day of strong year-on-year demand growth in the region and spring maintenance,” the refiner said in an earnings statement.

“In the longer term, market fundamentals will be continuously supportive given that capacity additions are lagging behind demand growth,” it added.

-----------

STRAIGHT FROM A HORSE'S (refiner's) mouth...!!!

NOT from an analyst, news reporter or probability..!!!

ENUF SAID!

SmartyAlek

Apr 27, 2018 09:08 AM | Report Abuse

要卖的卖完了。要买的还在观察

Apr 27, 2018 09:17 AM | Report Abuse

买了的也不会短期内卖

Apr 27, 2018 09:24 AM | Report Abuse

你这么有空在这里看，就知道你要买

-----------

一點都沒錯

Probability,

Same thing want to post how many times? So desperate need to hard sell?

‘or, perhaps, whether’ kind of things no need post lah. Yesterday kena whacked by members here still not enough?

----------

If probability's intent is to cause panic and result in lower HY prices so he can perhaps benefit than I think it will not have much effect as I believe the firepower of those in this forum is insufficient to move the price of HY...he needs some whales.

If his intent, rightly or wrongly, is to save those in this forum from
buying HY (which he now views as a stock not worth having) than we thank him for his good intentions..however, I believe he is sadly mistaken in such case.

This counter has 300 million shares. If we assume one third free float, that's 100 million shares...at current price that's about RM800 million. It will take time and right moment for a whale or whales to collect and push...hopefully Q1 results will be excellent, giving excuse to ramp up..Be patient.

CORRECTION;

BE VERY CLEAR ON THIS!

"HY margins not affected by movements in crack spreads as refining margins are fixed by the government with an alpha buffer to absorb differences."

Profits from refining margins, by and large, should be stable with growth coming from higher consumption.

Therefore, HY's profitability is more dependent on its efficiency in sourcing the right crude diet or blends at best pricing, selling higher margin products, utilization rate and hedging operations to protect inventory values.

PERIOD.

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 03:35 PM | Report Abuse

... not knowing the difference between Crack spread and the absolute price of Crude Oil...

-----

Don't try to hide behind all that nonsense of crack spreads. Paperplane is right. TIU..

85% of HY's refined products are sold domestically which is based on the MOPS monthly average (now weekly) + margins for an alpha buffer, operations, refiner and retailers.

BE VERY CLEAR ON THIS!

"HY margins not affected by movements in crack spreads as they are fixed by governments with an alpha buffer to absorb differences."


https://paultan.org/2009/02/15/how-fuel-prices-are-calculated-in-malaysia/

You may ask what exactly is the MOPS? Many countries in this region base their fuel prices on the MOPS, including alot of ASEAN countries and even Australia.

The index is tracked, assessed and updated by Platts, a McGraw-Hill company in Singapore and is based on the daily average of all trading transactions between buyer and seller of petroleum-based products.

A buyer of a finished (refined) oil product will refer to the MOPS index as a better indicator/benchmark of world prices rather than crude oil prices. The MOPS price typically has a premium over the crude oil prices. This is why the Malaysian government uses MOPS to determine fuel prices rather than NYMEX crude oil prices. Unfortunately it is hard to track MOPS prices as individuals because the data is only available to those who purchase it, unlike the publicly available charts from the NYMEX.

TIU...SALUTE TO PAPERPLANE!!!

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > Apr 21, 2018 02:20 PM | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shells-Profits-Soar...

congrat to hengyuan.. monday fly
-------

Oil major Shell has snapped up over 8 million barrels of June-loading crude oil grades from the Middle East and Russia and has resold some of the cargoes in Asia, taking advantage of the strong Asian demand, Reuters reported on Friday, citing five trading sources.

Wider Brent premium over the Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai this month has made Atlantic crude oil supplies more expensive than the Middle Eastern and Russian supplies, which are priced off the Dubai benchmark.

According to two of Reuters’ sources directly involved in the trades, Shell has bought six cargoes of Qatar Marine, four cargoes of Upper Zakum, three cargoes of Russian Sokol, and at least one Banoco Arab Medium and one al-Shaheen cargo from various sellers.

The Anglo-Dutch oil major has resold one of the Qatar Marine cargoes to a customer in Thailand at a premium of more than US$0.20 per barrel to the official selling price (OSP) of the grade, compared to premiums of between US$0.10 and US$0.20 a barrel in previous deals, Reuters sources said.

Shell’s oil cargo acquisitions have reduced the spot availability, and for some of the crude grades, Shell is the only seller, according to Reuters’ sources.

Demand in Asia is strong, and some analysts believe that it’s stronger than expected, even though oil prices have risen.
“Chinese demand points to strong growth,” Reuters quoted Goldman Sachs as saying in a note to clients. Demand growth may be “higher than currently estimated,” according to Goldman.

Some analysts in Asia don’t expect refineries across the region to reduce imports or cut refinery rates because of the high oil prices, but some traders expect major overhauls at some Chinese refineries in May and June.
--------------

Comment: THE ABOVE ARTICLE BY REUTERS SHOWS ACTUAL PHYSICAL DELIVERY.

In contrast,

Probability has been quoting drops of crack spreads based on CME futures. Futures are only a hedging tool for refiners and speculating instrument for traders. And as qq3 pointed out there was no volumes from April onward. ZERO TRANSACTION...Sellers cannot find buyers (typically refiners will buy when spreads are high to hedge and protect margins)

Check it out.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-mogas-92-unleaded-platts-brent-crack-spread-swap-futures.html

Do not be misled by probabaility

LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE!!!

U can also compare the charts and prices when oil rose from Us$30 to current day level.

correction:

will give u an idea of the correlation between crude prices...

Posted by cheeyong > Apr 21, 2018 09:33 AM | Report Abuse

Heng Yuan profit margin will lower when oil price up...

-----

I suggest u check the charts when crude prices crashed from about US$110 to US$30 during 2014 to 2016 and compare HY prices during the same period. There are some lagging effects and each refinery will have their own operational, management and efficiency metrics but the overall macro picture will give u a correlation between crude prices and their effects on refiners.

Posted by MC33 > Apr 20, 2018 10:12 PM | Report Abuse

Can’t read Chinese , someone pls translate tq
------

Posted by Newplayer286 > Apr 20, 2018 10:07 PM | Report Abuse

By Donovan【Qn: 大师，Hengyuan是提炼油公司，如果油价继续上涨，成本提高，盈利下降，股价应该下而不是上，对吗？】
最近很多人问了这种问题，我认为他们被其他人的妖言惑众给误导了，因此我用反问的方式来开导他们的智慧、训练他们的思考技巧：问题1- 假设这种妖言惑众的【逻辑】成立的话，那么，试想：2016年的年初至2017年的年尾，油价从每桶30美元上升到每桶60美元，恒源为什么股价从2元飙升到19元（8倍）？问题2- 现今，油价将从每桶60美元上升到我的目标价的每桶100美元至每桶120美元，也是近乎双倍，那么我的恒源目标价我只给19元的2倍（也就是恒源股价=38元）而没给8倍（恒源股价=152元），那请问，我的恒源目标价算是保守还是所谓的夸张？很显然，在金钱、价格的压力下，很多人是不理智的，他们被心理学上的锚定效应 (ANCHORING EFFECT) 愚弄了。

Translation:

Qn: Master, Hengyuan is an oil refinery company. If oil prices continue to rise, costs increase, and profits decline, stock prices should go down rather than up, right?

Recently, many asked such questions. I think they are misled or betrayed by others . Therefore, I shall enlighten their wisdom and train their thinking skills:

Question 1 - Assuming such gossip is logical, then imagine...from the beginning of 2016 to the end of 2017, oil rose from US$30 US per barrel to US$60 US dollars, why did Hengyuan's price soared from 2 ringgit to 19 ringgit (8 times) (when it is supposed to down based on the aforesaid logic)?

Question 2 - The price of oil shall rise from US$60 per barrel to my target price of US$100 to US$120 per barrel, which is almost double, so my Henderson target price is only twice as much at 19 ringgit ( That is my Hengyuan TP stock price = 38 ringgit) and not 8 times (Hengyuan stock price = 152 ringgit), so I ask...is my target price conservative or exaggerated?

Obviously, under pressure of money and price, many become irrational, and are fooled by the psychological anchor effect (ANCHORING EFFECT).

Posted by probability > Apr 20, 2018 06:25 PM | Report Abuse

Monday people panic sell liao!....


probability
7423 posts
Posted by probability > Apr 20, 2018 06:29 PM | Report Abuse

Better sell first and wait until HY buyback share and then buy lor...

where is the bottom...no one has any clue liao!

-------
Twisted

EPS will increase, assuming earnings remain same, if the shares purchased are cancelled. If they are treasury shares with intend to sell if there's profit, than EPS will not increase. Obviously, company buy back is a vote of confidence in addition to reducing free float thus smoothing out volatility. Correct me if wrong.

Posted by John_Lee > Apr 20, 2018 02:52 PM | Report Abuse

Be a man and keep it between you and me.

--------

Probability, cease and desist using underhand tactics!

Argue like the educated person u seem or profess to be.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > Apr 20, 2018 02:49 PM | Report Abuse

If someone is blissful enough, he would not be bothered by this forum.....weird. Very insecure person

-----

Luke, exactly... you hit it on the nail...

Yesterday, IDSS shorts -nil

Today morning, IDSS shorts - 1700 units

As hardly any shorts over last few days, the drop in price is mainly due to those who bought at lower levels cashing out or some contra players which I believe is a small number, if any. When selling subside, it should move north again.

" If u look at the charts, there was some volume in Feb and March when volumes were higher..."

correction: when spreads were higher