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2022-09-01 09:03 | Report Abuse
Locked profit, sold at 5.52-5.60
2022-08-31 12:02 | Report Abuse
stockraider
Do you think Hengyuan is so nut to record pretax profit RM 900m and willing to paid RM 220m tax ??? Nonsense at all if hengyuan wan to manipulate account as it is legally and accounting right to no post unsettlement hedging loss in P&L, otherwise, hengyuan can save RM 220m tax paid. Unsettlement hedging contract can last till its expire date or opt early settlement once hedging position turn to gain due to decreasing crude oil
PetronM only paid RM 77m tax, in your view, petronM manipulate tax by temporary mark to market to avoid paid more tax loh!
Please comment based on fact, hengyuan tax paid to gov RM 220m is genius
2022-08-31 11:43 | Report Abuse
Based on Q2 revenues and cost, hengyuan realize crack spread around USD 28, which in accord to average crack spread range from Mar to May crack for gasoline+ diesel + jet fuel. Hengyuan realize pretax profit RM 900m.
The next Q3 result comprises of crack spread june to Aug, average crack spread for gasoline + diesel + jet fuel is around USD38. Therefore, it can extimate than hengyuan upcoming Q3 pretax profit is RM 1.2 billion. EPS = RM 3
The hedging position will revert back from loss to gain as crude oil, feedstock cost, fallen from USD 135 in Q2 to USD 105 in Q3. Hengyuan NTA will booster significantly from RM 5.2 to + RM 3( from reversal hedging) + Q3 EPS RM 3 - - - - > total NTA for hengyuan RM 11
2022-08-30 23:23 | Report Abuse
Hengyuan hedging contract will continue incur paper loss if crude oil trading in single upward direction.
It wil however, reverse hedging position into gain if crude oil reverse trend to downward.
Right timing to opt for early settlement in hedging position is normal part for pure refiner to mitigated fluctuations in feedstock crude oil
2022-08-30 23:20 | Report Abuse
If you have hedging contract valid for 1 year, you need to account for fluctuations in hedging position loss/gain in your book value/nta.
It is only you opt for early settlement or end of 1 year contract settlement, record realize gain or loss in profit /loss account.
2022-08-30 22:36 | Report Abuse
Hedging position have time period, hengyuan can make settlement earlier if hedging is in favour.
Therefore, Q2 hedging loss RM 1 billion is unfavourable to make settlement earlier as crude oil in Q2 trade as high as USD 135.
The hedging loss RM 1 billion is not classified in P&L as hedging is not reach settlement, just alike your stock portfolio now is in paper loss but you opt not to sell to realize loss, but in paper, your portfolio wealth have show decrease in NTA.
You can afford to wait just like hengyuan, until hedging position is in favor position like nect Q3, crude oil already decreade significantly from USD 135 to current USD 100, hedging position now become reverdal from loss RM 1 billion to gain, hengyuan can opt to settle hedging positon just alike you opt your cover short position in your stick portfolio. Once settlement reached, it will reflects in P&L
2022-08-30 22:11 | Report Abuse
Based on revenue and cost, hengyuan only realize average crack spread USD 20 in Q2. The lower than expected spread is due to lagging effect of 1 month.
The next Q3 crack spread will take into accout highest crack spread happen in June >USD 35 and up till Aug which at current on average crack spread around USD29.
Next Q3 will also take into account lower crude oil, resulting reversal in hedging from loss to gain.
In short, the best result will only happen in Q3, EPS could double than current RM 2.2
2022-08-30 18:22 | Report Abuse
NTA affected by outstanding hedging positon above 1 billion at loss hedging position for crude oil USD 151.
What will next Q3 result crude oil price now?
Current crude oil only at around USD 100, hengyuan stand to win very very big as heding loss position will becime hedging massive gain in next Q3 result
2022-08-30 17:56 | Report Abuse
Agreed, next Q3 result will even better based on outstanding hedging position against current crack spread
2022-08-30 17:54 | Report Abuse
NTA no a reflection as hedging position haven't closed yet.
2022-08-30 17:26 | Report Abuse
Super happy Mederka day
2022-08-29 22:56 | Report Abuse
Coming Wednesday, RON 97 is expect to hike again
2022-08-29 22:25 | Report Abuse
The federal government declared a regional emergency in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin following a fire that broke out at a BP-owned refinery in Whiting, Indiana
What will likely crack spread for gasoline, diessel and jet fuel tomorrow!?
But, what confirm winner is - - - >hengyuan
2022-08-29 22:23 | Report Abuse
the incident had affected the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel across the four states, which prompted the emergency declaration. The four states get a quarter of their fuel supply from the Whiting refinery.
2022-08-29 10:03 | Report Abuse
Winter sesaon is coming, Euope rush to souce more oil particluarly diessel as althernative to fire up power due to lack of gaas supply
2022-08-29 09:56 | Report Abuse
In 2020, Malaysia exported $15.9B in Refined Petroleum, making it the 9th largest exporter of Refined Petroleum in the world. At the same year, Refined Petroleum was the 2nd most exported product in Malaysia. The main destination of Refined Petroleum exports from Malaysia are: Singapore ($5.63B), China ($1.61B), Indonesia ($1.28B), Hong Kong ($1.13B), and Australia ($1.12B).
The fastest growing export markets for Refined Petroleum of Malaysia between 2019 and 2020 were Hong Kong ($387M), China ($255M), and United States ($167M).
2022-08-29 09:54 | Report Abuse
Q result will out today, grab back oppprtunity today on weeakness
2022-08-29 09:50 | Report Abuse
I think Hengyuan result should much bettter than PetronM, concentrate capital bought back all hengyuan
2022-08-29 09:44 | Report Abuse
bought back hengyuan at 5.30-5.40
2022-08-26 20:51 | Report Abuse
No many stock can offer 10 year earning forward with CONFIRM increasing profit through decreasing interests expense, and after 3 year become net cash position.
These 10 year profits visibility only based on existing orderbook. Any new secure contact forward is additional plus profit and prolong earnings visibility longer than 10 year forward
2022-08-26 20:41 | Report Abuse
Armanda Q result clearly show consistent earning without any effect y crude oil price up or down
2022-08-26 20:01 | Report Abuse
Orderbook and extension total RM 22 billion, offer profit visibility 10x forward, allow armanda become NET CASH position after 3 year later.
Any new contract win is another catayst
2022-08-26 19:58 | Report Abuse
Focus now is continue pare down debt every quarter, boosting EPS through decreasing interest expense.
By next year, debt level will trim down below 1x, paying dividend via payout ratio 25% become affordable or least 4.5sen.
2022-08-26 19:55 | Report Abuse
Next Q result, armanda will record EPS > 4sen above, and EPS will on uptrending due to lower interest expense, trim debt ever quarter.
2022-08-26 13:13 | Report Abuse
Net profit RM 186m, EPS 3.15sen
Net profit without impairment: RM 242m, EPS = 4.1sen
2022-08-26 13:11 | Report Abuse
The Group reported net profit1 of RM186.3 million in Q2 2022, consistent with the Q1
2022 net profit of RM185.8 million..
Revenue from continuing operations was RM618.4 million in Q2 2022, an increase of
almost 17% compared to the previous quarter. This was mainly due to progress of the
Subsea Construction work in the Caspian Sea, as well as preliminary front end
engineering and design revenue recognised during the quarter. The solid performance
was achieved in Q2 2022 notwithstanding the impairment of RM88.0 million due to the
unsuccessful appeal of the Woodside litigation.
The future firm orderbook at the end of Q2 2022 amounted to RM13.1 billion, with
additional optional extensions of up to RM9.4 billion.
2022-08-26 10:45 | Report Abuse
to buyback if on more weakness
2022-08-26 10:45 | Report Abuse
to buyback if on more weakness
2022-08-26 10:44 | Report Abuse
locked profit at 5.66-5.68
2022-08-26 10:43 | Report Abuse
locked profit at 5.70-5.72
2022-08-25 22:29 | Report Abuse
Net profit (EPS 68sen) is after net off derivative loss, if without derivative loss, net profit is double higher EPS RM 1.40). Since the crude oil price already decrease ,such derivative loss will writeback in next Q3
2022-08-25 22:19 | Report Abuse
Each barrel of crude oil is refine breakdown into 3 major component product, with largest component is diesel, second is RON gasoline and lastly refine jet fuel
1. Gasoil/diesel crack spread chart (historical highest level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1%21/
2. Gasoline/petrol RON 92 crack spread spread chart (normalize level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
3. Kerosene/ jet fuel crack spread (at historical highest range level)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD2!/
2022-08-25 15:13 | Report Abuse
To retest break above RM 6.00 and stand above to set floor support at RM 6
2022-08-25 15:13 | Report Abuse
To retest break above RM 6.00 and stand above to set floor support at RM 6
2022-08-25 11:55 | Report Abuse
Upcoming hatching egg outcome --darkness snake or golden dragon, soon to known, nothing to hide
2022-08-25 11:55 | Report Abuse
Upcoming hatching egg outcome --darkness snake or golden dragon, soon to known, nothing to hide
2022-08-25 11:40 | Report Abuse
Before surpass 50sen target level, lets it break 40sen resistance level first
2022-08-25 11:19 | Report Abuse
Prefer steady move up, mop up selling pressure in each level, built up flooring support at each level ahead of Q result release
2022-08-25 11:19 | Report Abuse
Prefer steady move up, mop up selling pressure in each level, built up flooring support at each level ahead of Q result release
2022-08-25 11:16 | Report Abuse
Armanda exiting orderbook can offer Armanda last for another 7year, if take into account extension period, add another 3 year to 10 year earning visibility.
With decreasing interest expense from staggerring trim down debt every quarter, Armanda profit margin is getting higher to more than 40%
2022-08-25 09:52 | Report Abuse
Awaiting armanda india regasification LNG megae project progress announcements
2022-08-24 23:24 | Report Abuse
sslee know how to calculate first
2022-08-24 23:03 | Report Abuse
PetronM investor should post query in Petdag investor , and request for answer why they buy Petdag till RM22? why they don buy Petron till RM 22? If they said Petdag 1000 retail is largest, but, petron retail 750 is not too far behind and if profit divided by each retail, Petron retail profitability is higher. In additional, Petron is integrated downstream (refinery + retail/commercial) rather than Petdag pure downstream (retail/commercial), enable Petron to enjoy full range downstream value chain profit margin. https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf
Q1: Petron Q2 EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan Q2 EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Q2: Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Q3: Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive
2022-08-24 22:10 | Report Abuse
Petron EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive
2022-08-24 21:59 | Report Abuse
You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)
Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen), i give a little higher range EPS = 67-70sen due to currency translation factor
Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING COMPANY BERHAD
2022-09-01 09:05 | Report Abuse
Hengyuan, see you next Q3 to re-enter back