From Q result of petron corporation, a parent company of PetronM,, the upcoming PetronM should range around EPS= 67-70sen.

Petdag Q result comment (Pure downstream stock, source all refine product e.g jet fuel, diesel, gasoline from refiner )
Retail Segment
Retail Segment revenue increased by RM1,606.7 million, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of 50% as
well as increase in average selling prices by 4% in tandem with higher demand.
PBT recorded for the quarter was RM310.5 million, an increase of RM250.1 million against the corresponding
quarter, mainly contributed by higher gross profit from Mogas and Diesel following higher sales volume as well as higher other income contributed by gain on disposal of LPG business in Sarawak (proceeds from disposal of investment in Sarawak LPG business of RM40.0 million)

Commercial Segment
Commercial Segment recorded an increase in revenue of RM2,702.6 million or >100%, contributed by higher sales volume by 18% and increase in average selling prices by 85%. LBT of RM3.6 million was recorded as compared to PBT of RM28.0 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
This was predominantly due to lower gross profit from Diesel and Jet A1 following higher product costs resultant from steep increase in prices.

Petdagangan suffer loss in jet fuel and diesel for its commercial segment (consist of sales and purchase of petroleum products and provision of services to the commercial sector) - Sharp increase price by refiner resulted Petdag unable to fully pass to its commercial customer despite increase selling price 68%

Petdagangan suffer loss in jet fuel and diesel for its commercial segment (consist of sales and purchase of petroleum products and provision of services to the commercial sector) - Sharp increase price by refiner resulted Petdag unable to fully pass to its commercial customer despite increase selling price 68%

Petdag Q result comment (Pure downstream stock, source all refine product e.g jet fuel, diesel, gasoline from refiner )
Retail Segment
Retail Segment revenue increased by RM1,606.7 million, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of 50% as
well as increase in average selling prices by 4% in tandem with higher demand.
PBT recorded for the quarter was RM310.5 million, an increase of RM250.1 million against the corresponding
quarter, mainly contributed by higher gross profit from Mogas and Diesel following higher sales volume as well as higher other income contributed by gain on disposal of LPG business in Sarawak (proceeds from disposal of investment in Sarawak LPG business of RM40.0 million)

Commercial Segment
Commercial Segment recorded an increase in revenue of RM2,702.6 million or >100%, contributed by higher sales volume by 18% and increase in average selling prices by 85%. LBT of RM3.6 million was recorded as compared to PBT of RM28.0 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
This was predominantly due to lower gross profit from Diesel and Jet A1 following higher product costs resultant
from steep increase in prices.

Recurring and steady profit will offer overdue re-rating forward

Agreed

Eat pop corn, lets watch the show perfroming now :D)

Eat pop corn, lets watch the show perfroming now :D)

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

PetronM source local Malaysia low sulfur Tapis crude is however more expensive, trading at premium if compared to import crude from Saudi

The writteback and reinstate crude volume in coming Q already worth RM 130m + RM 130m = RM 260m (EPS 86sen)

Hengyuan have long term 5 year agreement with Shell station to supply refined product. The selling price to Shell station should based on spot price based on average Singapore crack spread. Hengyuan adopt swap crude oil/hedging refine product to mitigate volalite spot profit margin to shell station

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)

Indian gov control retail petrol price without give subsidy compensation. Unlike indian, Malaysia gov give full subsidy

YTL is conglomerate most lagging behind now, it need to catch up at least in line with YTLP

Lets just compared petronM retail value with petdag

Market capitalisation
Petdag RM 23.29 billion, retail station 1000

Vs.

Petron market capitalisation RM 1.27 billion, for 750 retail station!?

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, only gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remains above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bbl

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, obly gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remain above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bbl

Just wait for coming Q result, the windfall profit will change stock fundamental. In regard to sustainability, as long as gasoline crack spread sustain above USD4 + diessel crack spread above USD 7 + Jet crack spread above USD 10; Hengyuan will remain operation breakeven.

Anything above these level is pure profit for hengyuan

Armanda gross profit margin is now as high as 48%, and these profit margin is expect to expand further due to strengthening USD denominated earning + continue decreasing interest expense due to consistent quarterly repayment debt

bought more armanda at 35sen

Armanda derive positive cash flow about RM 300m every quarter. These have allow armanda to continue trim down debt on quarterly basis.

YTL construction atm is now constructing billion worth of green data center cum solar power project by YTL power.

YTL hotel and mall also on track recovery as show by its REITS subsidary.

YTL should at least declare 2.5sen dividend in coming Q result.

Armanda profit NOT rely on crude oil price at all.

Armanda earnings is source from long term rental fees on its FPSO that service oil producing company. Oil price however indirect affect the ability of oil-producing company to pay Armanda on its service rental fee.

The higher the oil price, the more stable oil producing company financially, then, the more likely it will extend Armanda after expire long term service contract.

Aside prompt rental fee receivable, armanda profit margin also affected by USD movement. the higher the exchange rate, the higher the profit in RM profit as all rental fees is in USD denominated

Petronas dagangan owns 1000 retail station vs. Petron own 750 retail stations

just wait for result, will release very soon

Hengyuan (complex refinery) vs. Petron (simple refinery)

Hengyuan, complex refinery plant enable it to refine heavy oil mainly from Saudi which is cheaper than Malaysia crude oil. Therefore, it have cost advantage, but it needs an aggressive hedge feedstock ahead due to need to source crude from various source at spot price. Exposure to derivatives is higher in order to protect its profit margin.

vs.

Petron has a long-term supply contract of Tapis crude oil and Terengganu condensate for its Port Dickson Refinery from ExxonMobil Exploration
and Production Malaysia Inc. (EMEPMI) and Low Sulphur Waxy Residue Sale/Purchase Agreement with Exxon Trading Asia Pacific, a division of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.

On the average, around 55% of crude and condensate volume processed are from EMEPMI with balance of around 45% from spot purchases. Require less hedging position to protect its profit margin.

Petron sources these light crude oil with low sulphur, therefore a simple refinery process is enough to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Petron sources light crude oil with low sulphur, therefore a simple refinery process is enough to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.

Petron currently has a long-term supply contract of Tapis crude oil and Terengganu condensate for its Port Dickson Refinery from ExxonMobil Exploration
and Production Malaysia Inc. (EMEPMI) and Low Sulphur Waxy Residue Sale/Purchase Agreement with Exxon Trading Asia Pacific, a division of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.

On the average, around 55% of crude and condensate volume processed are from EMEPMI with balance of around 45% from spot purchases.

bought back hengyuan at 4.08

TA become weakness, abort plan to buyback today. Wait for clearer picture next few day

sold at 44.5sen, wait to buyback later if on weakness

be patients, just another 2 week for Q2 result release. The exceptional record breaking earning will leap up significantly balance sheet, NTA, cash hoard, future dividend payout

Its normal for profit taking after breakout resistance level 47sen in the morning. Stock still still uptrend band, time is still needed to break resistance convincedly.

Aug 2022
Crude oil USD94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price RM 4.40/liter

Dec 2021
Crude oil 94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price was RM 3.40/litre

Remark: Gov delay in adjusting retail petrol pricing, benefiting PetronM total 750 retail station

RON 97 decrease just another 10sen to RM 4.40/l. These level is still RM 1.00/ l higher if compared to last year level RM 3.40 when crack spread at 7-8.

For information, Highest RON 97 at 4.90/l recorded when crack spread trade above 30.

Slow decreasing petrol price as compared to rapid normalize crack spread (input cost) offer great lag time arbitrary gain for PetroM total 750 nationwide petrol station, each have underground storage tank. Input cost rapid decrease, but, selling prices still retain elevated level.

Personally, expect 25sen special dividend

No need to bother who is he, just focus on stock itself as anyone can buy in open market and emerge as substantial shareholder now due to HISTORICAL depress price

Petron corporation's detail Q2 result have yet to release. Its result encompasse Philippine, Malaysia, Singapore and business range from crude oil. refined product, fuel, and marketing station in various countries.

Still need to wait for local PetronM to release result for more insight detail

As prices of finished products further surged in the second quarter, refining cracks also strengthened. Petron benefited from the strong regional refining margins with higher production at the refiner....

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-h1-2022/

PetronM in long term valuation should be based on sum of part

1. Refinery business （30%）- valuation 4x (cyclical business)
2. Petrol station （70%） - valuation 10x (retail business)