locked profit at 5.70-5.72

Net profit (EPS 68sen) is after net off derivative loss, if without derivative loss, net profit is double higher EPS RM 1.40). Since the crude oil price already decrease ,such derivative loss will writeback in next Q3

Each barrel of crude oil is refine breakdown into 3 major component product, with largest component is diesel, second is RON gasoline and lastly refine jet fuel

1. Gasoil/diesel crack spread chart (historical highest level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1%21/

2. Gasoline/petrol RON 92 crack spread spread chart (normalize level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

3. Kerosene/ jet fuel crack spread (at historical highest range level)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD2!/

To retest break above RM 6.00 and stand above to set floor support at RM 6

To retest break above RM 6.00 and stand above to set floor support at RM 6

Upcoming hatching egg outcome --darkness snake or golden dragon, soon to known, nothing to hide

Upcoming hatching egg outcome --darkness snake or golden dragon, soon to known, nothing to hide

Before surpass 50sen target level, lets it break 40sen resistance level first

Prefer steady move up, mop up selling pressure in each level, built up flooring support at each level ahead of Q result release

Prefer steady move up, mop up selling pressure in each level, built up flooring support at each level ahead of Q result release

Armanda exiting orderbook can offer Armanda last for another 7year, if take into account extension period, add another 3 year to 10 year earning visibility.

With decreasing interest expense from staggerring trim down debt every quarter, Armanda profit margin is getting higher to more than 40%

>50sen

Awaiting armanda india regasification LNG megae project progress announcements

sslee know how to calculate first

PetronM investor should post query in Petdag investor , and request for answer why they buy Petdag till RM22? why they don buy Petron till RM 22? If they said Petdag 1000 retail is largest, but, petron retail 750 is not too far behind and if profit divided by each retail, Petron retail profitability is higher. In additional, Petron is integrated downstream (refinery + retail/commercial) rather than Petdag pure downstream (retail/commercial), enable Petron to enjoy full range downstream value chain profit margin. https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

Q1: Petron Q2 EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan Q2 EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Q2: Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Q3: Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

page 7

https://www.petron.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Petron-Corporation-SEC-Registration-No_-31171_Quarterly-Report-SEC-Form-17-Q-1st-Quarter-2022_12-May-2022.pdf

Petron EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen), i give a little higher range EPS = 67-70sen due to currency translation factor

From Q result of petron corporation, a parent company of PetronM,, the upcoming PetronM should range around EPS= 67-70sen.

Petdag Q result comment (Pure downstream stock, source all refine product e.g jet fuel, diesel, gasoline from refiner )
Retail Segment
Retail Segment revenue increased by RM1,606.7 million, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of 50% as
well as increase in average selling prices by 4% in tandem with higher demand.
PBT recorded for the quarter was RM310.5 million, an increase of RM250.1 million against the corresponding
quarter, mainly contributed by higher gross profit from Mogas and Diesel following higher sales volume as well as higher other income contributed by gain on disposal of LPG business in Sarawak (proceeds from disposal of investment in Sarawak LPG business of RM40.0 million)

Commercial Segment
Commercial Segment recorded an increase in revenue of RM2,702.6 million or >100%, contributed by higher sales volume by 18% and increase in average selling prices by 85%. LBT of RM3.6 million was recorded as compared to PBT of RM28.0 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
This was predominantly due to lower gross profit from Diesel and Jet A1 following higher product costs resultant from steep increase in prices.

Petdagangan suffer loss in jet fuel and diesel for its commercial segment (consist of sales and purchase of petroleum products and provision of services to the commercial sector) - Sharp increase price by refiner resulted Petdag unable to fully pass to its commercial customer despite increase selling price 68%

Petdagangan suffer loss in jet fuel and diesel for its commercial segment (consist of sales and purchase of petroleum products and provision of services to the commercial sector) - Sharp increase price by refiner resulted Petdag unable to fully pass to its commercial customer despite increase selling price 68%

Petdag Q result comment (Pure downstream stock, source all refine product e.g jet fuel, diesel, gasoline from refiner )
Retail Segment
Retail Segment revenue increased by RM1,606.7 million, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of 50% as
well as increase in average selling prices by 4% in tandem with higher demand.
PBT recorded for the quarter was RM310.5 million, an increase of RM250.1 million against the corresponding
quarter, mainly contributed by higher gross profit from Mogas and Diesel following higher sales volume as well as higher other income contributed by gain on disposal of LPG business in Sarawak (proceeds from disposal of investment in Sarawak LPG business of RM40.0 million)

Commercial Segment
Commercial Segment recorded an increase in revenue of RM2,702.6 million or >100%, contributed by higher sales volume by 18% and increase in average selling prices by 85%. LBT of RM3.6 million was recorded as compared to PBT of RM28.0 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
This was predominantly due to lower gross profit from Diesel and Jet A1 following higher product costs resultant
from steep increase in prices.

Recurring and steady profit will offer overdue re-rating forward

Agreed

Eat pop corn, lets watch the show perfroming now :D)

Eat pop corn, lets watch the show perfroming now :D)

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

PetronM source local Malaysia low sulfur Tapis crude is however more expensive, trading at premium if compared to import crude from Saudi

The writteback and reinstate crude volume in coming Q already worth RM 130m + RM 130m = RM 260m (EPS 86sen)

Hengyuan have long term 5 year agreement with Shell station to supply refined product. The selling price to Shell station should based on spot price based on average Singapore crack spread. Hengyuan adopt swap crude oil/hedging refine product to mitigate volalite spot profit margin to shell station

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)

Indian gov control retail petrol price without give subsidy compensation. Unlike indian, Malaysia gov give full subsidy

YTL is conglomerate most lagging behind now, it need to catch up at least in line with YTLP

Lets just compared petronM retail value with petdag

Market capitalisation
Petdag RM 23.29 billion, retail station 1000

Vs.

Petron market capitalisation RM 1.27 billion, for 750 retail station!?

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, only gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remains above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bbl

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, obly gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remain above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bbl

Just wait for coming Q result, the windfall profit will change stock fundamental. In regard to sustainability, as long as gasoline crack spread sustain above USD4 + diessel crack spread above USD 7 + Jet crack spread above USD 10; Hengyuan will remain operation breakeven.

Anything above these level is pure profit for hengyuan

Armanda gross profit margin is now as high as 48%, and these profit margin is expect to expand further due to strengthening USD denominated earning + continue decreasing interest expense due to consistent quarterly repayment debt

bought more armanda at 35sen

Armanda derive positive cash flow about RM 300m every quarter. These have allow armanda to continue trim down debt on quarterly basis.

YTL construction atm is now constructing billion worth of green data center cum solar power project by YTL power.

YTL hotel and mall also on track recovery as show by its REITS subsidary.

YTL should at least declare 2.5sen dividend in coming Q result.

Armanda profit NOT rely on crude oil price at all.

Armanda earnings is source from long term rental fees on its FPSO that service oil producing company. Oil price however indirect affect the ability of oil-producing company to pay Armanda on its service rental fee.

The higher the oil price, the more stable oil producing company financially, then, the more likely it will extend Armanda after expire long term service contract.

Aside prompt rental fee receivable, armanda profit margin also affected by USD movement. the higher the exchange rate, the higher the profit in RM profit as all rental fees is in USD denominated

Petronas dagangan owns 1000 retail station vs. Petron own 750 retail stations