There are four main reasons behind the explosion in refining margins.

1. First, demand — particularly for diesel — has rebounded strongly, depleting global inventories. In some markets, like the US East Coast, diesel stocks have fallen to a 30-year low.

Despite rising prices and fears of an economic slowdown later this year, oil executive say they see strong consumption for now. “Demand is not that easily destroyed,” Shell plc CEO Ben van Beurden told investors last week.

2. Second, the US and its allies have tapped their strategic petroleum reserves to cap the rally in oil prices. That has provided extra crude, which has put a lid on WTI prices, but it hasn’t addressed the tightness in refined products. Only a small fraction of the emergency release is in the form of refined products, and only in Europe.

4. Fourth, are the sanctions and unilateral embargos — also known as self-sanctions — on Russian oil. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a major exporter not just of crude, but also of diesel and semi-processed oil that Western refiners turned into fuel. Europe, in particular, relied on Russian refineries for a significant chunk of its diesel imports. The flow has now dried.

Europe not only needs to find extra crude to produce the diesel and other fuels it’s not buying from Russia, but,

crucially, it needs the refining capacity to do so, too. It’s a double blow. Oil traders estimate that Russia has shut down 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels a day of refining capacity as result of the self-sanctions.

Who’s benefitting? The pure-play oil refiners, which are quietly enjoying record-high profit margins. While OPEC and Big Oil get the blame, independent refiners are cashing-in. The sky-high crack margins explains why the share prices of US refining giants Marathon Petroleum Corp and Valero Energy Corp have surged to all-time highs. The longer the refiners make super-profits, the harder the energy shock will hit the economy.

3. Third, and perhaps most importantly, refining capacity has declined where it matters for the market now, and the plants that are operating are struggling to process enough crude to satisfy the demand for fuel. Martijn Rats, an oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, estimates that outside China and the Middle East, oil distillation capacity fell by 1.9 million barrels a day from the end of 2019 to today — that’s the largest decline in 30 years.

The downward trend started well before the pandemic hit, as old Western refineries struggled to compete, environmental regulations increased costs and the unfounded fear of peak oil demand amid the energy transition prompted some companies to close plants. The fuel-demand collapse triggered by Covid-19 only turbo-charged the trend, resulting in dozens of refinery operations shutting down for good in Europe and the US in 2020 and 2021. New capacity has emerged in China. However, Beijing tightly controls how much fuel its refiners can export so that capacity is effectively out of reach of the global market.

There are four main reasons behind the explosion in refining margins.

1. First, demand — particularly for diesel — has rebounded strongly, depleting global inventories. In some markets, like the US East Coast, diesel stocks have fallen to a 30-year low.

Despite rising prices and fears of an economic slowdown later this year, oil executive say they see strong consumption for now. “Demand is not that easily destroyed,” Shell plc CEO Ben van Beurden told investors last week.

2. Second, the US and its allies have tapped their strategic petroleum reserves to cap the rally in oil prices. That has provided extra crude, which has put a lid on WTI prices, but it hasn’t addressed the tightness in refined products. Only a small fraction of the emergency release is in the form of refined products, and only in Europe.

PetronM

1. 740 station (+ 18)

2. New Dissel hydrotreater - capable of procerssing higherr sulphur which command lower crude price to treat into clean Euroo 5 Dissel

3. Additional 500k barrels storage, to meet growing demand and reduce freight cost through increase storage capacity and increase gain of inventory in rising crude price.

Flour user industry like bread maker in turn hike selling price as much as 30% to end consumer -
inflation

Mflour have trading flour division, inventory storage and hedge future price to profit uptrend price to protect input cost margin.

Malaysia flour price have hike since last month, cist pass through to flour user industry

Wheat price is soaring, mflour trading set to record windfall profit

PetronM, catch up

2020
Net crack margin: USD 5.23/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.50/bbl
Net profit: RM 251m
EPS: 83.66sen

2021
Net crack margin: USD 3.44/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.39/bbl
Net profit: RM 82.7m
EPS: 27.56sen

2022 Q1 (My Estimation)
Net crack margin: USD 10/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 30/bbl
Net profit: RM 750m (minimum)
EPS: 250sen (minimum)

During the year, HRC’s commercial team also managed
to secure a five-year term renewal for crude oil supply at a
competitive value with better working capital and extended
payment terms. This was made possible by leveraging on the
good relationship we have built with our established partner

Source of crude oil

2020
1. Malaysia 54.8%
2. Far East 14.9%
3. Middle East 14.4%
4. Russian 10.9%
5. Others 5%

2021
1. Malaysia 52%
2. Russian: 14.7%
3. Middlle East: 9.6%
4. Far East: 7.2%
5. Others: 16.5%

2020
Net crack margin: USD 5.23/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.50/bbl
Net profit: RM 251m
EPS: 83.66sen

2021
Net crack margin: USD 3.44/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.39/bbl
Net profit: RM 82.7m
EPS: 27.56sen

2022 (Q1)
Net crack margin: USD 10/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 30/bbl
Net profit: RM ?
EPS: ?

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/marathon-mpc-q1-earnings-beat-115811192.html

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-diesel-shortages-lift-refining-margins-record-2022-05-10/

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/chinas-april-oil-refinery-output-plunges-two-year-low-covid-curbs-bite-2687426

KTM EDT Project is Progressing Well - Southern Malaysia (Electrified Double Track)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJU0_p8ztIY

YTL Power > Malakroff

Yewyin33

2022
Fed CPO 7,306 mt
Jan CPO. 8,887mt

2021
Dec CPO. 12,243 mt
Nov CPO. 13,529 mt
Oct CPO 13, 867mt

Remark: jtiada under very significant CPO production volume now. Despite, surge in CPO price now to from 4.5k to 6k now, Its next Q profit growth if any will be very modest due to slash in production volume by 50%

Yewyin33

Kindly check bursa annoucement, jtiasa every month will announce its CPO production on monthly basis to bursa.

You can compared jtiasa CPO production volume in jan and fed 2022 with dec, nov, oct 2021 CPO production volume

Yewyin33

Jtiasa jan and fed production volume is slumping down 50%. Increase in CPO selling by 30% now only can merely offset lower volume yield to record about same profit in next Q result.

Therefire, jtiasa wont record increasing profit in next aq result due to 50% production volume reduction

Jhm profit eps is comparable to D&0, but the peice is only 1/3 of it, worth for those keen to swap for continuous automobile LED exposure

As crack spread only start report > 10 begin year 2022, the real EPS imp[act will start report in Q1 2022, release in May. It is still early bird to buy hengyuan and Petron at current market price now.

Be an early bird before market maker jump in, best before May to report Q1 2022, EPS> RM 1.50 for hengyuan, EPS > RM 1.00 for Petron

kyy follow strict role, only invest company report quarter to quarter increase profit trend. kyy is key market maker of hengyuan in 2017-2018, when hengyuan and petron start report massive EPS > RM 1.00 each quarter, whichn in turn correlate to crack spread > 10

After waited for 5 year, the supercycle for refiner just about to repeat again

Hengyuan Euro 4 Mogas project is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022 will further boost its profitibility

smartly, kindly check 5 year ago histoical crack spread data and correlaate it with both hengyuan and Petron EPS. The massive profit for refinary kick in when crack spread begin hike above 10.

Next quarter result will increase triple to between EPS RM 1.50-RM 2.00, based on stock holding gain 25% + crack spread hike 75%

WORLD 3rd largets tin miner/smelter, MSC, trading at forward PE 6x (Est forward EPS: 80sen)

vs.

ASEAN largest aluminium smelter, Pmetal, trading at forward PE 35x (Est Forward EPS : 20sen)

MSC stand for Malaysia glory as world third largest tin producer and world second largest tin exporter

MSC is world third largest tin producer after China and Indonesia.

It is also world second largest net exporter (China is largest tin producer, but most limit to supply local semiconductor/EMS)

MSC already step up to increase tin mining activity to increase tin ore volume production to 12mt/daily

The new energy efficient Top Submerged Lance (TSL) furnace smelting plant, anticipated to increase tin extractive yield by 50% from 40,000 tonnes to 60,000 tonnes of tin-in concentrates per year utilising oxygen enrichment, without incurring additional capital expenditures.

These 50% increase tin production through increase extraction yield from same amount of feedstock raw tin ore is PURE profit to MSC

OTB, your honesty is always rewarded.

Your willingness to share real true infromation is a key to success. In investing field, infromation is wealth, the more people know fact informartion, the lower the risk, the higher odds to profiting. Its just matter of time.

Its alike China common prosperity policy, sharing wealth, allow many more people to get rich instead of limit to certain group people.

Dear OTB, don worry, short term market sentiment cannot shed undervalue stock for too long time

AYS will regain its momentum especially next Q result to be release next month to show off and reinstate its earning growth is sustainable.

Recent Astino Q already comment that its earning will growth strongly after lift MCO

PE is trading at 3.5x valuation, dividend policy is 60% payout, interim dividend already paid 6sen, final dividend should net 24sen, total 30sen, Annjoo yield HIGHEST at 16% nett

Remark: Annjoo paid 1.5sen x 2 for those hold preferential share

PE is trading at 2x valuation, dividend is paying quarterly 1.5sen, total 6sen, yield > 10%. Super value buy

The new energy efficient Top Submerged Lance (TSL) furnace smelting plant, anticipated to increase tin extractive yield by 50% from 40,000 tonnes to 60,000 tonnes of tin-in concentrates per year utilising oxygen enrichment, without incurring additional capital expenditures.

These 50% increase tin production through increase extraction yield from same amount of feedstock raw tin ore is PURE profit to MSC.

Annjoo next Q shoudl at least deliver 10sen, total EPS 52sen, 60% payout = 31sen final Q4 result will declare at least final dividend 22sen/share + earlier interim 6sen + 2 preferential dividend 1.5sen

Therefore, Final dividend should be 22sen/share = dividend yield 11%


The Board remains committed to rewarding shareholders
and, barring unforeseen circumstances, expects to return
to its dividend policy of up to 60% pay out in the coming
years when the Company delivers a better and improved
performance


DATO’ LIM KIAM LAM
Group Executive Chairman

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id...

Uchitech

1. Dividend yield 7% with highest 90% payout to teward shareholder
2. Net cash company
3. High sensitivity to US currency strength ( FED nterest rate hike is key catayst to strengthen US currency)

Structural policy change in china have permanently affect global steel industry. China have gradually turn for net exported cheap steel to net imported costly steel to meet local demand. China is moving value chain instead of focus to upstream mass raw steel production to now emphasis on downstream speciality flat steel for EV, Semiconductors, EMS, solar etc. It afford to import raw steel oversea, then value added steel for special purpose is key focus for china in future

Drsteel

Annjoo derive dual souce of income by being sole hybrid blast and being one stop steel solution for trading and distribution.

That us reason why Annjoo can command high profit if compared to eastern steel.

DrSteel

In china, more EAF to replace blast. Demand for feedstock scrap metal will be high and price elevated + costly electricity due to elevated coal price, will resulted china steel production cost is getting higher and cost pass through steel selling price.

With RCEP, tax traffic will eliminated, Malaysia steel maker wuth blast furnase, eastern steel and Annjoo will able to penetrate china steel market with their cost advantage

Final dividend will be proprosed next month feb together with Q4 result. You will know at keast 11sen final dividend based on 90% payout of annual EPS 22sen ( interim dividend 9sen alrdy paid in Q3)

Take note uchitech final Q4 will be stronger + resumption 100% workforce if compared to only 60% workforce allow under MCO + strength in US dollar bode well for unchitech US denominated export profit

Calvin

You need to get thing clear that palm oil tree is biological, growth is slow and production palm fruit is on gradual manner. Whereas, in steel industry, production volume can scale up immediately if selling price is high and manufacture plant can run overtime if needed for 24 hr.

That is big differece betwenn industries

Kindly take note that Wong derive majority of its profit from construction and property development, up to as much as 57.4%. The balance only derive from manaufacture E&E component.

These key profit contributor in Kuchai Lama project property development now is at tail end, and is expected to complete in the near future. Wong have yet to have have any new property develment to replace exiting tail end project in view of uncertainties posed by the Covid-19 pandemic besides the existing property glut and a weak market sentiment.

Until Wong can secure new property development, future profit will record half from exiting profit. Otherwise, Wong only can expect growth in its manaufacture E&E component and move up value chain in semiconductor industry to double up increase profit to replace majority profit vaccum left behind from its ending property development.

The Board remains committed to rewarding shareholders
and, barring unforeseen circumstances, expects to return
to its dividend policy of up to 60% pay out in the coming
years when the Company delivers a better and improved
performance


DATO’ LIM KIAM LAM
Group Executive Chairman

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=208819&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS

sailang all with margin line, all at 1.78, average down cost to below RM 1.80

Final dividend 22sen/share = dividend yield 12%

Annjoo next Q shoudl at least deliver 10sen, total EPS 52sen, 60% payout = 31sen final Q4 result will declare at least final dividend 22sen/share + earlier interim 6sen + 2 preferential dividend 1.5sen

Annjoo have dividend policy to payout at least 60% net profit

bought maximum Annjoo, all at 1.81