just wait for result, will release very soon

Hengyuan (complex refinery) vs. Petron (simple refinery)

Hengyuan, complex refinery plant enable it to refine heavy oil mainly from Saudi which is cheaper than Malaysia crude oil. Therefore, it have cost advantage, but it needs an aggressive hedge feedstock ahead due to need to source crude from various source at spot price. Exposure to derivatives is higher in order to protect its profit margin.

vs.

Petron has a long-term supply contract of Tapis crude oil and Terengganu condensate for its Port Dickson Refinery from ExxonMobil Exploration
and Production Malaysia Inc. (EMEPMI) and Low Sulphur Waxy Residue Sale/Purchase Agreement with Exxon Trading Asia Pacific, a division of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.

On the average, around 55% of crude and condensate volume processed are from EMEPMI with balance of around 45% from spot purchases. Require less hedging position to protect its profit margin.

Petron sources these light crude oil with low sulphur, therefore a simple refinery process is enough to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Petron sources light crude oil with low sulphur, therefore a simple refinery process is enough to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.

Petron currently has a long-term supply contract of Tapis crude oil and Terengganu condensate for its Port Dickson Refinery from ExxonMobil Exploration
and Production Malaysia Inc. (EMEPMI) and Low Sulphur Waxy Residue Sale/Purchase Agreement with Exxon Trading Asia Pacific, a division of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.

On the average, around 55% of crude and condensate volume processed are from EMEPMI with balance of around 45% from spot purchases.

bought back hengyuan at 4.08

TA become weakness, abort plan to buyback today. Wait for clearer picture next few day

sold at 44.5sen, wait to buyback later if on weakness

be patients, just another 2 week for Q2 result release. The exceptional record breaking earning will leap up significantly balance sheet, NTA, cash hoard, future dividend payout

Its normal for profit taking after breakout resistance level 47sen in the morning. Stock still still uptrend band, time is still needed to break resistance convincedly.

Aug 2022
Crude oil USD94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price RM 4.40/liter

Dec 2021
Crude oil 94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price was RM 3.40/litre

Remark: Gov delay in adjusting retail petrol pricing, benefiting PetronM total 750 retail station

RON 97 decrease just another 10sen to RM 4.40/l. These level is still RM 1.00/ l higher if compared to last year level RM 3.40 when crack spread at 7-8.

For information, Highest RON 97 at 4.90/l recorded when crack spread trade above 30.

Slow decreasing petrol price as compared to rapid normalize crack spread (input cost) offer great lag time arbitrary gain for PetroM total 750 nationwide petrol station, each have underground storage tank. Input cost rapid decrease, but, selling prices still retain elevated level.

Personally, expect 25sen special dividend

No need to bother who is he, just focus on stock itself as anyone can buy in open market and emerge as substantial shareholder now due to HISTORICAL depress price

Petron corporation's detail Q2 result have yet to release. Its result encompasse Philippine, Malaysia, Singapore and business range from crude oil. refined product, fuel, and marketing station in various countries.

Still need to wait for local PetronM to release result for more insight detail

As prices of finished products further surged in the second quarter, refining cracks also strengthened. Petron benefited from the strong regional refining margins with higher production at the refiner....

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-h1-2022/

PetronM in long term valuation should be based on sum of part

1. Refinery business （30%）- valuation 4x (cyclical business)
2. Petrol station （70%） - valuation 10x (retail business)

Don forget PetronM aside as refiner, also possess valuable 750 retail station, each own underground storage tank for petrol/diesel, still selling at elevated RM 4.5/l

You have to compare the stock price level which is also already reach normalize level. But these normalize level have yet take into account upcoming Q2 result, which will boost EPS RM 2- RM 2.5. The company cash level, balance sheet and NTA, all have yet to reflect at current share price level.

Although stock price wont reflect totally the above Q2 profit on share price due to projection next Q3 downtrend EPS, but it will at least reflect certain fraction of above profit impact on stock price.

The significant boost in profit in Q2 (if EPS is RM 2-2.5) is already enough to cover next 4-5 year normalize EPS. Furthermore, the forward valuation and dividend also attractive to support the current share price as future normalize crack spread still give good profit margin, is profitable business + forward interest expense significant decrease,

To challenge 47sen resistance level

Crack spread above 20 in Q2 will record in the coming result, although is one-off windfall profit, an exception EPS will nevertheless boost company cash hoard significantly.

Bear in mind, if PetronM manages to record EPS RM 2 - RM 2.5 due to exception crack spread in Q2, it could potentially turn its balance sheet into NET CASH position, a significant game changer forward.

If based on historical data chart, crack spread above 10 is considered an outlier, a rare windfall profit.

The mean crack spread should range 5 to 8, which already gives very good profit margin as refinery cost operation breakeven level is around 4.

Hengyuan, pure refiner, need at least crack spread 4 to breakeven. At its annual report, hengyuan alrdy able to report profit for crack spread above 4.

Crack spread current level is normalize level at around 7. At these level refinery still is profitable business as its cost operation is around USD 4 to 5.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1!/

ready to go

It is never in Petdag/Boustead (BH petrol), a pure retail petrol business, to report FIXED profit due to fixed price at all. It is often commented factor that affect profit margin are sale volume + fuel price movement+ time lag affect factors on stockholding gain/loss

Each petrol station have underground fuel storage tank.

In additional, in its refinery site, it also have crude oil storage tank to store feedstock, it also have storage tank for petrol/diessel/jet fuel, the end product tanks.

Each of these above storage tanks above will offer a big arbitrary gain due to lag time effect and timing for Gov to adjust selling price.

Buy PetronM is more on its 750 retail petrol chain, quarter Malaysia petrol market share, rather than its volatile refinery business alone. PetronM refinery business is to complement its retail business as all its refine product is selling through its retail outlet

You can refer to other 2 listed company, Petdag (Petronas station) and Boustead holding (under trading division, refer to BH petrol station), both pure retail petrol station profit margin are affected by sale volume and fuel price movement

The possible reason could be Malaysia gov allow slower adjustment to retail price, allowing petrol station to enjoy higher lag time arbitrary gain as part of compensation due to Malaysia gov short budget, delay to pay subsidy on RON95 to retail station. The delay in payment for subsidy is main complaint by retail as it result in accumulated receivable for prolong time, affecting retail petrol cash flow and interest expense.

In last year Nov-Dec, the retail RON97 is at RM 3.50/l, crack spread (input cost) is at around 7; vs. retail RON97 now is still at RM 4.50/l for same crack spread at 7.

Malaysia gov seem granted retail petrol opportunity to capitalize on current still elevated selling price to end customer by adjusting slowly retail selling price against rapid decrease in crack spread

Bear in mind, PetronM retail petrol station still selling its petrol
RON97 at RM 4.50/l;
RON100 at RM 4.90/l;
RON 95 if unsubsidized at RON 4.30/l

You should checked what the retail petrol level last year when crack spread at 7-8. There is big lag time arbitrary gain for PetronM. capitalize on current elevated retail price level despite at current crack spread

The current rate is 2.25%, it is expect to hike further 2 x 0.25% by year-end to 2.75% and further 0.25% to 3% by Q1 2022

In additional to retail petrol station, refining business in long term should form just 1/4 valuation on petronm.

In fact, petron refining business should view as complement to its retail petrol as integrated fuel provider as all its refinary oil end product is sell to its own retail station, enjoy full profit margin in entire chain supply from trading, storage, refining, logistic, retail, end customer product

At least 2/3 valuation of petron should be reflect on its 3rd largest retain petrol station, a total of profit making 760 station, commanding about quarters of Malaysia petrol market share.

Added more at 4.68-4.72

Based on projected time that special will paid out to shareholders by end of these year, the estimated timeframe is

1. Payment date: Dec
2. Ex dividend date: Nov
3. Announced dividend datw : Oct
4. Bank Negara approval date: Sept
5. Affin board of director proposed special dividend date : Aug

Seem resistance barriers too strong, momentum need more time to regain power, stay tune

bullish momentum, testing resistance level

Be patient, allow some time for gestation, share price is currently at the upper band level, it just needs another booster special dividend to propel share price to breakout.

Technically, the Bollinger band just opened, bullish signal.

Cypark on track to retest recent high level 46sen and 49.5sen, once breakout, it will move significantly higher to above 50sen ahead of COD announcement

Now already August, by next month, many new power plant are ready for COD.

Be patient, juat wait little longer for official announcement in bursa.

Power plant COD is ultmost important for upfront huge built up cost power plant businesses model as it will end construction risk and begin new steady positve cash flow upon COD for next 25 year concessions

Share price can have fluctuations, but, business model is key determinant. Long term 25year power plant concession businesss allow cypark to shield from recession risk, geopolitical tension, inflation etc

Technically, chart show higher high ----> BULLISH

These total worth of RM 2 billion new power plant once start commercial operation these year will begin to receive steady recurring payment over 25 year concession period, make repayment debt total worth RM 1.4 billion, with the balance to start resume dividend payout on positive cash flow

COD COD COD, a total of 4 COD announcements will be made on bursa soon. 1 COD on WTE (RM 900m), 2 COD (2x 30MW, each RM 230m x 2) and 1 COD (100MW) , cost RM 550m for solar power, total worth RM 2 billion worth of power plant will commercial operation by 2022

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3280812

You can compare the RON97 price change to crack spread data. It is big lag time offer huge discrepancy gap, offer exceptional arbitrary gain for retail petrol outlet.