Above scenario clearly show petdag profitability dependent on

1. Sale volume.
2. Retail RON petrol selling price (output selling)
3. Crack spread (input cost)

Petdag retail petrol profit margin is NOT FIXED.

There is lag time factor between input cost (crack spread) and output selling price to customer at its retail station, offer arbitrary gain

Factor affecting retail petrol business earning as below show by petdag analyst comment.

1. E.g. FY21 earnings almost doubled YoY, with the group enjoying higher product prices, while volumes stayed marginally flattish YoY (-2%)

2. E. G. Core profit declined by -55.8% due to lower sales volume (-4%), higher product costs (+39%) and less favourable MOPS price trend.

3. 1HFY21 core net profit of RM266m came in below expectations at 39% of our, and 40% of consensus, full-year forecasts, dragged by a decline in product margin spreads amidst the normalisation of oil prices during the 2QFY21 quarter, coupled with lower-than-expected sales volumes.

4. . Post results, we lower our FY21E/FY22E earnings by 11%/5% on the back of lower margins spread and sales volume assumptions

5. Petronas Dagangan’s 1Q22 results missed expectations due to higher product prices, despite a higher sales volume (+20% YoY). Sales volumes for both the retail and commercial segments are expected to grow, but margins could be volatile.

6. While sales volumes are certainly expected to remain healthy in tandem with the resumption of economic activities, the volatile fluctuations of underlying crude oil and product prices remain, and thus, cost management may be crucial going forward.

7. However, we have seen a significant improvement over the financial year last year with quite good first-quarter performance. There are many other factors that impacting the business, not just the volume but is also the movement of prices

8. PetDag 4Q21 core profit rose 53% yoy and 15% qoq to RM137m driven mainly by recovery in sales volume following the reopening of more economic sectors. EBITDA margin, however, was compressed to 3.6% (4Q20: 5%, 3Q21: 5.1%) potentially as a result of lag loss from declining MOPS price during the quarter.

Latest petrol RON 97 retail price only decrease by 5sen, to RM 4.50/litre.

These pricr level RM 4.50/l is still higher 50% if compared to last Dec level at RM 3.00/l. These elevated retail level is despite crack spread already normalize to last Dec level at 9.

These clearly allow PetronM retail petrol continue enjoy extraordinarily arbitrary profit margin.

Agreed, but, the exception profit will not only happen in coming Q2 result, it will sustain to next Q3 due to lag time factor over highly discrepancy between normalize crack spread and retaining elevated retail petrol RON selling price. Its allow arbitrary gain for petronM retail petrol business

Affin CEO is busy accumulating share in open market ahead of his own decision making on special dividend soon

Based on total number of petrol station

1. Petronas: 1100
2. Shell: 950
3. Petron: 720

Based on profit over number of petrol stations, petronas derive RM 120m, explorate to petronM petrol retail divison should comand profit RM 78m, implying about 70% petronM profit actually derive from its petrol retail station, balance 30% profit is from more volatile refinary division..

Therefore, in turn if valuation, petronM should tag more closer to petronas dagangan instead of volatile earning hengyuan

The easiest way to change market perception is calling petronM to make separate division presentations in its Q result, allowing analysts to fetch fairer comparison valuation tag to its refinary business and retail petrol business duvision, to calculate sum of part valuation

The simple reason is market perception tend to lump petronm ( refinary business) with hengyuan instead group together petronm (retail petrol station) with petdag.

PetronM already completed installation new diessl hydrotreater worth USD 100m, enable it to produce direct diesel Euro 5

Retail selling price is the main source profit for PetronM on top of the refinery.

PetronM own third largest retail petrol station, just short behind Shell and Petronas.

PetronM derives dual source of profit = Petronas Dagangan (only sole profit from retail station) + Hengyuan (only sole profit from refinary)

Bear in mind, the direct retail selling price RON97 at RM 4.55/l (the highest is at RM 4.84/l) is real profit margin to be recorded by PetronM instead of reference indicator crack spread, normalize back to USD 9 from highest USD33.

These vast discrepancy correlation adjustment between crack spread indicator to actual retail selling price enable PetronM to enjoy even higher profit margin through local vast retail station direct selling to customer

Its proven ability of PetronM to own vast chain of petrol station enable it to continue to enjoy exception massive profit margin despite the indicator show crack spread have normalized

Despite mogas crack spread back to Dec 2021 level at USD 9, but RON97 still remain elevated at RM 4.55/l compared to Dec 2021 RON 97 at RM 3.00/l. These is massive 50% increase profit margin for PetronM selling petrol price at its retail station

.........the company’s refineries earned strong margins and its oil traders delivered an “exceptional” performance

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/08/03/bp-boosts-returns-as-oil-refining-and-trading-drive-profit-beat

Time is ripe for exposure to refiner to ride its explosive coming Q2 result which capture highest crack spread USD 25

bought back PetronM at 4.86-4.93

Long term power plant concession business is shield from recession risk, geopolitical tension, inflation etc.....

The WTF power plant is under trial run, which usually took about 1-2 month time. Once completed, it will officially announcement commercial operation date. Stay tune and be patient.

Once power plant achieved COD, Concession business is most viable business model in time of uncertainty, it ensure steady positive cash flow over long term 25 year period. Cypark upfront built up debt will steady get repayment, reducing interest expense and pave way for dividend payout in future

Now is month August, cypark schedule to announce COD for power plant in Sept. Only need to wait another month to get rid of rumour uncertainty risk

Completed asset disposal, now awaiting special dividend announcement.

Recovery

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Beware, upcoming Q2 result will be very excellent as crack spread hit average USD25, BUT, the following Q result will be tumble as crack spread just hit limit down -33% again to USD 7.9 for month aug 2022

Beware, upcoming Q2 result will be very excellent as crack spread hit average USD25, BUT, the following Q result will be tumble as crack spread just hit limit down -33% again to USD 7.9 for month aug 2022

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

so many force selling, but pressure keep on absorb. Even TA is bearish, but i decide to continue hold tight as COD is near announcement

As told earlier, cypark is LSS2 financer. Cypark will earn interest revenue on top of principal repayment + O&M from LSS2.

Once selling pressure absorb well, its time to up again. Those shorties in the morning stand to backfire again

Selling pressure easing, recovering on track

Still is uptrend chart

Its healthy correction so long stock price remain above 42sen

Asset disposal monetize RM 1.5 billion, cash out 70sen/share. Affin affird to payout at least 30% to reward shareholder

Profit taking is expected today due to t+3, lets market absorb pressure, pave way for next strong recovery

Power plant assest to be commercial operation by sept 2022 and dec 2022.

1. 3unit x 30 MW each RM 230m = RM 690m

2. 100MW = RM 550m

3. WTE = RM 900m

Total power plant assest = RM 2.1 billon

Good closing, thumb up Affin

hahaha pity clown shorties, under self-illusion, denial state, wasting time lollll

Pity lol, you shortist sell a stock that you did not own at morning , and thinking buy back the stock later within the same day before market close stand to get backfire. Pity clown

:D)

Now cypark is on both TA + FA, both show good indicator

supper bullish

Go short if you can, wait next month, you will get backfire lol, hahaha

TA is bullish

The cycle wont repeat back again as the main culprit of delay in commissioning COD for WTE and solar power will be resolved by Sept. Next week already Aug, cypark may surprise market if can announce earlier than expect COD date in Aug, otherwise, just wait another month, Sept, COD announcement is key re-rating for cypark

TA weakness

Today cut toyo at 67-69sen

Armanda net gearing level will lower to below 0.8x by end year.

Bumi armanda profit USD denominated, higher USD rate translate into higher MYR profit

added all more cypark at 40.5sen

WTF is completing testing and commissioning soon, just wait for COD announcement

Higher high - - - > bullish signal

sold at 77-78sen, bought back at 72sen