Hi pjseow, are you intend to entitle supermax share dividend and cash dividend, continue hold for long term?

Ays is steel trader, its business model is buy low sell high, buy high sell higher. As long as global steel demand increase, AYS will make money.

Revenue increase, profit increase, profit margin depend on spread gap between buy price vs sell price to end customer

US need a lot of steel from oversea to buid its infrastruture and aluminum to buid its solar energy. It have to abolish import tax from oversea steel and aluminum now, to increase import volume to meet high local demand

Hilmi22

Please go back to search news on earlier Trump impose traffic on EU steel and aluminum 2 year ago, all steel stock tumble on trump impose tax on import steel/alumiumm to protect US own steel manufacture.

Now, if US ablish tax on steel and aluminum, what will happen? it will encourage steel export to lucrative US steel market which command higher premium price.

Supermax OBM business model is bad model now due to bad publicity, US ban order will smear supermax branding badly. It adversely impacted OBM integrately from production, dealership, markerting altigerher

Beware of risk cancellations on supermax exiting prepayment lucrative contractual contract worth billion ( based on prepayment 30-40% deposit RM 660m). If contractual deal is terminated, dealer may get back their deposit instead of forfeited by using US customs order as excuse.

Dealer keen to terminate contract as they paid very high ASP to supermax prepayment deposit for contractual order, suffering loss as market price is much lower than their contractual ASP.

Nevertheless, short term small catayst may prevail if supermax able to repeat last year one off share dividend to distrbute all its balance treasury share these month.

Pjseow, its best to await for next few Q ahead, after all supermax one off high ASP pre-prepayment contractual order book fulfill, earning to start reflect real spot market ASP, then to decide on re- enter level next year for its sustainanable ASP forward.

Global re-open economy, hike crude oil, Inflation, higher interest rate, China nitrile capacity expansion will cause raw material, expecially butadine, a petrochemical product from crude oil will remain elevated. Input cost increase + ASP on downtrend = lower net profit margin

Pjseow

In your analysis, net profit margin need to adjust near to pre pandemic margin which is more important than adpot prepandemuc ASP. In time of inflation, many raw material have hike, rubber, electricity, gas, butadiene, packaging, transportation cargo charge etc. Bear in mind, pre pandemic net profit margin only range 4% to 6%, even with cost pass through clause, if compared to your assumption of 20%. For more optimistic, 10% net profit is more likely in view of higher capacity volume for larger economy of scale, modern automation for cost saving.

Dear pjseow

Despite of your insistence on supermax, beware of current opportunities cost loss. Supermax current earning is mask by its earlier book prepayment contrctyal order price us is much higher than current downtrend spot price.

These earlier booked high ASP prepayment contractual orderbook will diminish in next 1 or 2 quarter. Then after, the profit will cliff down significantly to reflect actual ASP price.

Supermax real profit impact will likely stabilise only after 3 or 4 quarter next, which i think will be better time to re enter for bottom fishing and value buy for its net cash position and high dividend yield.

BURSA MALAYSIA GRANTS AUTOMATIC 1-MONTH EXTENSION FOR ISSUANCE OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND ANNUAL REPORTS DUE ON 31 MAY 2021 AND 30 JUNE 2021

BURSA MALAYSIA GRANTS AUTOMATIC 1-MONTH EXTENSION FOR ISSUANCE OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND ANNUAL REPORTS DUE ON 31 MAY 2021 AND 30 JUNE 2021

BURSA MALAYSIA GRANTS AUTOMATIC 1-MONTH EXTENSION FOR ISSUANCE OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND ANNUAL REPORTS DUE ON 31 MAY 2021 AND 30 JUNE 2021

Maybulk with net cash position after disposed old small vessel, it can in future order new larger capsize vessel to improved profitability in future. No of vessel is not important, just like Armanda have huge no of small loss making vessel, force to dispose to trim debt, offset profit generating larger vessel.

In future, maybulk should move to larger vessel, capsize and panamax size, get rid of small vessel, handy size and supramax size.

Maybulk needless to rush to buy new vessel at current high cost level. It can opt to lease third party new vessel to temporary increase vessel in operation to size short term high rate opportunity. For long term, maybulk should order new larger capsize vessel which is now new trend, fetch higher charter rate and have high economic of scale in operating efficiency.

Maybulk adpot different strategy if compared to glove maker which in time of ASP hike, rush to expand capacity by double, which will end up with flush of supply if glove, leading to ASP tumbling and oversupply in near future. Maybulk, capitalise on current hike in charter rate to dispose 2 old vessel at attractive price, monetize asset, turning into net cash position while retain newer vessel to continue enjoy higher profit margin.

Maybulk marked up selling price of its handy size vessel in May to gain additional RM 6.6m. Maybulk may marked up further its selling price supramax in Sept further from gain 75% over book value to 90% or even 100% over book value based on current bullish trend in charter rate

Charter rate leap up significantly and steady only after June. Therefore, upcoming Q result Q3 which cover July to Sept will record average 30k/ day.

Maybulk in Q2 only record charter rate 17k/day increase 34% from 12k/ day in Q1. These increase 34% in charter rate enable maybulk to increase net profit 24%. Current charter rate is 30k/day, a massive 150% increase in charter rate, will only reflect in next Q result.

Maybulk opt to sell old supramax fleet for net proceed RM 208m is gain of 75% on book value. These gain will reflect in next Q result.

The higher charter rate of 30k/day is more than to cover disposal of 2 old small supramax vessel build in 2014l. The proceed of RM 208m will essentially turn maybulk into Net cash position, about 12sen/share.

Maybulk will opt to retain bigger vessel size panamax which is newer and fetch higher charter rate 33k/day if compare to smaller, older vessel supramax 29k/day.

Maybulk current total borrowing RM 180m
Maybulk current total cash RM 90m
Maybulk net proceed from disposal 2 old fleet build in 2014, RM 208m

Total net cash RM 118m, net cash per share 12sen/ share

IPP is build and manage by China partner, jaks derive construction profit by subcin to its China partner.

Jaks have bad record in Msia business, all incur loss making construction orderbook all incur loss, property mall all incur loss, property development all incur loss. Currently, jaks only exit in property development, but still retain loss making construction due to lack labour to execute project and loss making shopping mall.

Only IPP from Vietnam is profitable, but offset partially by these culprit business in Msia.

Agreed, jaks next major laggard is its 2 big investment in shopping mall, Pacific mall and evolve mall. Both mall current suffering low occupancy rate, loss making eroded jaks power prfot from Vietnam.

Price now is at very attractive re entry level.

In time of market turbulence, it is best to have business model that is concession for 25year, steady profit income in USD, tax exampted

Boustead is in urgent need to unlock embedded value on its listing subsidiary in order to raise cash pare down debt and resume dividend payout to LTAT.

It is best time to monetize palm assets in view of multi year high CPO price. Among the cash rich big cap palm stock, wilmar, klk, IOI have such financial strength to take over at attractive offer price.

Outbreak in china case have prompt lockdown in City, testing is carry out for entire city population. Therefore, the testing glove and absorb production volume from China manufacture

Pjseow

Supermax management Pro. Use to distribute all treasury share, 1 for 27 = 3.78% treasury share..

The final cash dividend is based on 20% dividend policy

Q4 profit RM 1 billion is based on unchanged ASP contractual orderbook + absence of 75n one off donation + absence on closing down 1 month in meru plant, - offset partially by 1 month june 60% workforce and higher feed cost like gas traffic, butadiene, rubber latex etc

Harta should record profit RM 1.3 billion or EPS 37sen

Harta should also declare dividend 22sen

What to expect from supermax upcoming result are

1. Profit RM 1 billion or EPS 40sen
2. Special share dividend 1 for 27 or about 13sen
3. Final cash dividend 13sen

Ioi Corp get ready cash worth USD 600m, ready for Merger and acquisition for growth. Bstead may divest BPlant to Ioi corp

Sizeable plantation Estate is hard to find now for ioi Corp to growth. Furthermore, no many wiling to sell their prime estate at current windfall CPO price, but, bstead holding force to do that in order to pare down debt through unlock deep value in bstead plantation. B

Crack spread now nearly hit USD 10, triple higher than Q1 spread.

Sizeable plantation Estate is hard to find now for ioi Corp to growth. Furthermore, no many wiling to sell their prime estate at current windfall CPO price, but, bstead holding force to do that in order to pare down its borrowing

Ioi Corp get ready cash worth USD 600m, ready for Merger and acquisition for growth. Bstead may divest BPlant to Ioi corp

Maybulk share price now trade at unreasonable depress valuation in view of surge in charter rate, USD profit, unaffected International seaborne operation.

pjseow

Sorry, i quoted wrongly on distribution earning ratio.

pjseow, glove is export through seaborne, bulk container batch by batch, travel time need month before it reach distribution center and end user.

In previous up ASP up cycle, supermax distribution division take instant advantage to mark to market price, resulted, supermax distribution division contribute as high as 70% of supermax earning, with balance from manufacturing division. If you check recent last 2Q result, supermax distribution division contribution ratio is on downward to 35%, with balance from manufacturing division as ex-factory price catch up.

If you check supermax prepayment received from customer deposit, it have down significantly and lead time have down from > 300days to 50-60 day in such a short period, implying many supply of glove have catch up.

Nonetheless, supermax will still record good profit and declare good final dividend and treasury share to reward shareholder, but the profit will be on downtrend basis in next Q with lower ASP + lockdown impact + 60% workforce.

Hi pjseow

Supermax OBM model and get rid of middleman agent render it to direct exposure in the event ASP downward. There will no middleman agent to absorb stockpile loss

When ASP is uptrend, supermax OBM model is the first to catch up positive hike impact, and grab 2 source of income from distributions and manufacturing.

Wonder what will impact on supermax when ASP start to downtrend!?

The logic will be, supermax distribution division will start hit negative impact due stockpile loss. Supermax manufacture will still record profit but at lower ex-factory selling price.

Glove making have very low entry barrier, many exiting and. New. Comer from China, Thailand manufacturer have increase production volume at fastest speed than in Malaysia. The increase in production volume is at billion glove court, which is more than enough to cover resurgent in infection testing

Boustead previously did palm oil based REITS, listed for few year, but delist later at higher offer price.

The best solution to settle boustead holding debt burden is outright divest its prime jewel boustead planation or take over first, lease to REITS or sell at even high price later.

LTAT should at first place privatise boustead planation instead of privatise boustead holding. These is because privatize it's holding without take over its subsidiary is waste of corporate exercise.

For CPO exposure, better opt for Boustead plantation. It is major target from its control. Boustead holding to unlock its assets by either

1. Privatise boustead planation
2. Divest boustead plantation alike ijm plantation
3. Partial sell palm estate

For CPO exposure, better opt for Boustead plantation. It is major target from its control. Boustead holding to unlock its assets by either

1. Privatise boustead planation
2. Divest boustead plantation alike ijm plantation
3. Partial sell palm estate

For CPO exposure, better opt for Boustead plantation. It is major target from its control. Boustead holding to unlock its assets by either

1. Privatise boustead planation
2. Divest boustead plantation alike ijm plantation
3. Partial sell palm estate

When ASP is uptrend, supermax OBM model is the first to catch up positive hike impact, and grab 2 source of income from distributions and manufacturing.

Wonder what will impact on supermax when ASP start to downtrend!? I think supermax distribution division will start hit negative impact on withholding stock piling loss, while manufacture to record lower ex-factory selling price.

Use balance capital, bought boustead at 62sen

USD vs MYR = 4.23. USD have strengthen 20sen since 2021. Maybulk charter rate is in USD, higher USD is Extra bonus for RM profit on top of higher charter rate.