added balance capital, all in JCY at 62sen

bought back JCY at 62sen

sold back all FGV at 1.17-1.19

sold back all BP at 56-58sen

Beware Jtiasa cut its stake in rimbunan swait at loss.....Jtiasa cost was 50sen, acquire in 2015 but dispose open market at 20-28sen. Loss of disposal + re-measurement will erode Jtiasa result on top of continue timber loss making.

For pure upstream CPO stock, focus on Boustead plantation and TH planation

Th will release Q result next week, expect Q result EPS 2.5sen

BP to release Q result very soon, expect EPS 3sen

super bullish CPO price, future CPO price from Dec 2020, RM 3560 till July 2021 RM 3000, all trade above RM 3000

FGV CEO, Haris said that the group would need to undergo a valuation process for that purpose.

However, he estimated that the price to set up a new palm oil mill would cost about RM1mil per tonne of capacity and “for a 60-tonne capacity mill could cost about RM60mil.”

FGV processed over 14 million tonnes of FFB annually. Analysts generally have estimated that Felda would need to fork out over RM10bil to acquire the palm oil mills from FGV.

Felda LLA Compensation RM 3.5b-4.2 bi will be much higher if based on current FGV financial result. Felda have miss golden time to terminate LLA based on earlier loss making FGV financial result for lower compensation.

With turnaround of FGV now, the compensation is based on current and future 8 year profit, a much higher future profit compensation, which felda may force to opt to takeover entire FGV instead

Portfolio fully invested in 2 major stocks, Boustead Plantation and FGV, its not only is safe heaven from market volatility but also enjoy incremental paper profit growth steady, heading to double up entire portfolio capital by next 3 month, ahead of next upcoming Q4 result

Bullish chart, to test next resistance level at RM 1.37

many felda settler get loan from felda to subscribe FGV IPO price, many still entrap with loan until gov force to allocate RM 400m to partly mitigate their loan. Its best Felda to take over FGV at IPO price as LLA compensation which take 18 month completion + buy over 68 palm mill is worth multibillion, take over based on IPO price is easy and faster way to please settler and to gain support in early election next year

If CPO can sustain RM 3000 for prolong time, FGV EPS can go as high as 30-40sen, share price may ultimately go back to IPO price RM 4.50 next year

Invest now, and enjoy double profit later in 3 month time as FGV earning visibility is extreme and highly predictable to be based on CPO price movement

Market reacted now to good turnaround FGV. More to go until above RM 2.00 in next 3 month once Q4 release

likewise, the share price also turn opposite from RM 1.20 to RM 2.10 after Q4 result release

The EPS should turn opposite in next Q4 from Q3 EPS 3.8sen to Q4 EPS 8.3sen at least

Next Q result will be extreme higher due to CPO price > RM 3300, absent of MSM impairment loss

FGV profit is extreme sensitive to movement of CPO price. Invest FGV now, enjoy 2x higher share price once next Q4 result release, which will based on CPO price > RM 3300 if compared to just release CPO price RM 2645.

Share price will move higher if company able to deliver consecutive higher EPS

FGV is one of the cheapest planation stock with Q3 EPS 3.8sen alone in accord to CPO 2645 in Q3, rolling to Q4 result, EPS could surpass 8sen in accord to CPO price >RM 3300

Cannot compared revenue to profit margin as FGV also record revenue from loss making MSM, consolidate loss making MSM revenue due to 51% control subsidiary.

A better judgement should single out planation revenue, which is major profit contributor

Bear in mind, FGV only manage to realize average CPO RM 2645 if compared to current CPO price above RM 3300. These windfall profit above 8sen will be reflrect in next Q result

Good result, gross profit match my estimation

The date of release result is given by investment bank. FGV is expect to release Q3 result today, 17 Nov

FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2020 = RM 47m
FFB Production volume : 1.19 million MT
CPO price: RM 2309 MT
unharvest FFB loss 79k MT in Q2 due to movement control order
Impairment loss due to ease rubber mill in Cambodia = -RM 20m

FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2019 = -RM 54m
FFB Production volume : 1.15 million MT
CPO price: RM 1955 MT


FGV report swing plantation profit from loss -RM 54m to profit +RM 47m, a massive swing of RM 101m, due to CPO price increase RM 354 MT and 0.04MT increase in FFB production. If take into account impairment loss RM 20m and unharvest FFB loss impact, the swing in plantation profit will be more than RM 121m


Therefore, based on FGV production FFB and CPO price in Q3, FGV should report improvement in CPO price RM 491 MT and higher FFB production by 13% to give total profit RM 190m, EPS 5.2sen. However, if take into account MSM 51% share of loss RM 38m, the profit estimate will adjust down to RM RM 152m, or EPS 4.2sen

FFB Production volume in Q3 2020: 1.345 million MT
CPO price in Q3 2020: RM 2800 MT
MSM 51% share of loss : - RM 38m

FGV hold MSM 51% stake, the impairment loss incur in MSM will accord about RM 38m loss after minus minority interest. These amount of loss RM 38m will mitigate by the fact that FGV in Q2 also incur impairment loss RM 20m in its rubber plant in Cambodia.

Therefore, upcoming Q3 result will not much affected as FGV profit is most affected by movement in CPO price + FFB production + palm mil utilization rate. Each of these 3 factors much in line to boosts FGV real profit contribution.

Some may augur why in Q1, FGV also incur loss despite high CPO price above RM 2800, these is because in earlier Q1, FGV FFB production at much low level -33%, and its palm mill also process much less FFB, resulted higher cost CPO production cost. In additional, some of its palm mill also force to closed for 2 month during CMO in Mar and April.

FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2020 = RM 47m
FFB Production volume : 1.19 million MT
CPO price: RM 2309 MT


FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2019 = -RM 54m
FFB Production volume : 1.15 million MT
CPO price: RM 1955 MT


FGV report swing plantation profit from loss -RM 54m to profit +RM 47m, a massive swing of RM 101m, due to CPO price increase RM 354 MT and 0.04MT increase in FFB production


Therefore, based on FGV production FFB and CPO price in Q3, FGV should report improvement in CPO price RM 491 MT and higher FFB production by 13% to give total profit RM 158m, EPS 4.3sen

FFB Production volume in Q3 2020: 1.345 million MT
CPO price in Q3 2020: RM 2800 MT


The real boom Q result will be Q4, in which based on current trend of CPO price, it likely to average about RM 3200 MT, a further RM 400 MT increment will result EPS to 8sen

Expect tomorrow FGV Q result to report net profit RM 158m, EPS 4.3sen. These figure is based on proportion increment in CPO price in earlier Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019

FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2020 = RM 47m
FFB Production volume : 1.19 million MT
CPO price: RM 2309 MT


FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2019 = -RM 54m
FFB Production volume : 1.15 million MT
CPO price: RM 1955 MT


FGV report swing plantation profit from loss -RM 54m to profit +RM 47m, a massive swing of RM 101m, due to CPO price increase RM 354 MT and 0.04MT increase in FFB production


Therefore, based on FGV production FFB and CPO price in Q3, FGV should report improvement in CPO price RM 491 MT and higher FFB production by 13% to give total profit RM 158m, RPS 4.3sen
FFB Production volume in Q3 2020: 1.345 million MT
CPO price in Q3 2020: RM 2800 MT

Remark: The above figure exclude FGV mill utilization rate which is expect to improved substantially with higher FFB process, therefore, reduce further CPO production cost RM 1411 MT in Q2 2020,

Ready to take off ahead of Q result next week, Tuesday, 17 Nov 2020

Ready to take off ahead of Q result next week

Ready to take off, last call now

Use all balance margin to add more FGV at 1.15

Windfall tax 3% for palm oil prices exceeding RM2,500 per tonne in the Eas Msia and 1.5% for palm oil prices exceeding RM3,000 per tonne in Sabah and Sarawak. Boustead Planation location

1. 30% locate in East malaysia
2. 55% locate in Sabah
3. 15% locate in Sarawak

As of October 2020,28% of its FFB supply are sourced internally from our estates, while 72% are sourced externally.

Of this external supply, 63% is supplied directly from Felda settlers, 2% from independent smallholders, 4%from private estates, 2% from cooperative, and 28% is supplied through FFB traders in Malaysia.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/11/12/fgv-achieves-81-traceability-of-ffb-supply-chain

Remark: FGV have largest number of palm mill across Msia. It is important for CPO processing for almost all Felda settlers. Therefore, if Felda terminate LLA, aside compensation worth RM 3.5-4 billion, the multibillion take over palm mill offer from FGV is very important for Felda to meet settle CPO processing.

add margin to BP at 52.5sen

bought back BP at 51.5-52sen

bought back FGV at 1.17

Post removed.Why?

sold topglove at 8.51, locked profit first

use margin line, bought topglove at 8.20

bought back all supermax at 9.00

sold back FGV at 1.07-1.08, locked profit first

sold back BP at 51-51.5sen, lock profit first

sold back Jaks at 52sen, locked profit first

BP profit is the most sensitive to CPO price due to fact that BP is PURE upstream palm stock, CPO Q2 RM 2200, CPO Q3 RM 2800, CPO Q4 RM > 3000, a leap up EPS to be reported

If trump win, stock market up. Vietnam economy will boosts up further, as alternative supply chain for US

if trump win, stock market up

If trump win, corporate tax will further decrease, but if biden win, corporate tax will increase, no good for US stock market

However, if biden win, trade war against China may subside, which is good for global market and higher stimulus package is good for US economy

biden is leading now at 209 vs trump 112