Engtex Group Berhad's shares have experienced a significant drop recently. As of today, the share price has fallen by 38% over the past month, which has raised concerns among investors. The drop in share price is largely attributed to a decline in the company’s earnings, which have been underperforming compared to the broader market. Despite this, some investors remain optimistic due to the company's forecasted growth over the next few years, which is expected to be higher than the market average. However, the company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains high, which suggests that the market has high expectations for its future performance
Daniel Kahneman made famous the concept of the base rate fallacy. When presented with both historical or statistical information and those which is specific to an event, we tend to ignore the historical/statistical one.
I worry that we are going to see this play out for Engtex. This is a cyclical company whose performance is linked to steel prices. So in valuing Engtex we should be looking at its performance over the steel cycle. On such a basis its earnings value based on its historical performance is below its market price suggesting that it is overpriced
Of course, you would argue that this is backward looking and a more forward looking picture should consider the potential demand for water pipes. This in turn relates to the increase in water rates that would translate into better earnings for the water companies that in turn spur more water infra spending. On such a basis, you would consider Engtex as being underpriced.
In the short term the water infra story may play out. But if you are a long-term fundamental investor, shouldn’t you be looking at the water infra story in the context of the base rates? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRIYJUoQMj4
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
soonning65
140 posts
Posted by soonning65 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse
Probably can hit 0.80 today