In the CEO's Statement of the 2015 Annual Report, Aireen said that 100% owned subsidiary Asia Aviation Capital Ltd had assets totalling USD336 million and gross revenue of USD75 million. I assume she meant net assets and anyway any other items would have been covered in the consolidated accounts but I am no accountant.

The leasing house was only established in September 2014 and had acquired 41 aircrafts as at the end of 2015. Since then TF had mentioned during a recent Bloomberg interview that AACL had acquired 2 more aircrafts to make up a tital of 43 A320s in its portfolio as at the end of March 2016. Empirically by extrapolation, the asset value swells to USD352m and the revenue USD79m.

TF did point out that leasing activity is not AA's core nusiness and therefore flipping off AACL for cash is highly probable given the right price. The proceeds, if a flip happens, will probably be used to pare down borrowings and payout a big special dividend.

Up_down, perhaps a certain number agencies will be granted to some individuals and groups who assisted in lobbying and securing the 18 year contract, to operate a certain percentage of the 10,000 terminals planned to be implemented for the whole country. Either the agencies or terminals or both can be allotted for a price consideration in the initial arrangement for say a couple of years and after that sold back to the lottery operator, Berjaya GTI, for a tidy sum of money when business is more mature. Therein you can build in a decent payback for favours rendered in a meritorious way which beats graft.

Yes quite a lot.

Don't remember the figure but yes a few hundred millions Ringgits equivalent to pay for all the lands on which all the Phases of works except Phase 1 are located on.

Within the FY17, BJCorp has to repay $1.2147 billion and 4.6 million of its secured and unsecured Long Term Loans respectively and $224.869 million of its secured Medium Term Notes as indicated in its 2015 Annual Report. The approximate total of $1.444 billion is quite a staggering amount of loans to be retired this FY.

The projects, Menara Bangkok Bank/Ritz-Carlton Residences, Kyoto Five Seasons Hotel and The Great Mall of China, are nearing money bearing time which would be timely to meet the scheduled loans repayments but there is no certainty in them being on time apparently. Perhaps the sales of shares in subsidiaries are prudent steps taken just in case there are hiccups along the way.

On the brighter side, that is approximately 21% of borrowings that will be settled, others not withstanding.

The growth path of AA in Asia will be the storyline to sell in the next few months.

Maintenance and overhaul expenses reported for the Quarter was $65.25m and spread over the fleet of 82 AIRBUS A320-200 means an average maintenance/overhaul costs of approximately $265,244/plane/month.

How much do you think a fair figure should be?



Posted by stockmanmy > May 27, 2016 01:00 PM | Report Abuse

maintenance at $ 65k per plane per month...enough ah?

servicing a helicopter or what?
they call themselves low cost carrier
its a bare bone maintenance.

AA makes up 70% of my portfolio. Very happy.

This coming Monday in the AGM, TF will be talking very loudly.

Yes.

I refer to my posting at 10.38am about airlines' normal gearing ratios.

For AAB, you can add the $69.3 billion capital commitments for planes already on contracted to the $9.1 billion net debt and come up with a probable alternative total net debt position of $78.4 billion had the company opted to own and operate planes instead of lease arrangements.

The effective ratio would be 78.4/5 = 15.68 only compared to other airlines operating with gearing ratios close to 100.

General knowledge about airlines gearings for those who comment extremely negatively about AAB debts.


http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061615/what-average-debtequity-ratio-airline-companies.asp

If the price crossess 2.48 TP tomorrow, I shall sell 5% of my AA holding.

Without any doubt tomorrow's Q result will crush all the IBs' projections. Be pleasantly surprised, all you doubters.

1st TP 2.48

I am buying some more at these current lows before the price jumps. Inverted head and shoulders formation nearing completion.

The air is filled with dumbfounding trepidation as we await the release of 1Q results. The same thing happened last time on the eve of 4Q15 release. How to explain the fear? That the high expectation has been overhyped?

AAB and AAX are like two different animals. One is an mature lion and the other a young tiger both trying to survive in the savannah.

Don't be locked out after all this time.

The $362m Deferred Tax is actually a deferred tax asset which is a regular item in AAB's income statements and should not be considered a one-off item.

As for the $320m gain on disposal of AAE Travel, it should be considered a one-off item when determining core profit. Similarly, the $1.374b impaired forex losses on outstanding loans and $601.7m gains on the amounts due from associates or joint-ventures should be excluded as well.

What AA finale? This is only the "laying of foundation stones" stage only for a new future. Take a bolder view and go longer term for more rewards. Do you have a better stock to invest in right now or you just want to cash out?

Forex a lot more i think. Exchange rated at end of 4Q15 and 1Q16 around 11% apart.

Now we are talking nearer to sense.

Main market is touchy because of FF rebalancing their porfolios subsequent to JP Morgan downgrading Msia to underweight. The adjustment will be completed by 31 May, so we should see the gloom lifting by next week?

Crude oil? It is not going anywhere up unbridled. Once the supply and demand balancing is over at whatever price over USD40 (presently a salivating USD47 per barrel), the lower costs tight oil producers will re-enter the market and you may see the 20s again when a price war breaks out.

The present situation is conducive for the operator to increase the tempo of mopping up the cum-div shares to stockup at relatively low prices. These will later be 'placed' to kakis at different price levels to be locked up for a period time while the share price works its way up before and after the release of the impending Qtr results.

Next you can expect plenty of promotion by AA roadshows, endorsement and recommendation by IBs and analysts to mutual, pension and insurance funds. AA will be the best product to invest in since sliced bread. For myself, overweight.

Contra players are healthy for the market. They test the counters daily as they buy and sell.

There seem to be a few cyber trolls around.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/mobius-sees-no-long-term-impact-1mdb-issue-malaysian-stock-market

All big big fish waiting to see results to be released first before buying.

How long can you keep 3 or 4 healthy bull elephants in a closed room with a herd of cow elephants on heat waiting friskily outside? The bulls can hear and smell the cows and the horny bulls will crash through the walls in no time.

You can't keep the good news secret for long. We all know the 2016Q1 results are better than the 2015Q4 by a mile. Let loose and let it rip. That is healthier. Good news are to be celebrated and enjoyed.

1MDB may dim the market slightly for a week or so. But it is not strong enough to turn into a party pooper for AA, not now. Our carnival shall go on.

Icon8888, thank you for continuing to share your thoughts on your weblog. Most deeply appreciated.

A China group can offer everybody exit at 3.00 if people are so cheap and easily satisfied witb 3.00.

There is a difference between a private company and a public listed company. A lot of different laws and conventions.

A 10c discount off the market price is hardly adequate to cover the finding and procurement costs of financing this subscription of the new shares.

It is a fair demand.

r°Moi is sensible. A moratorium on TF n KM to sell AA shares for at least 2 years will propel the price up immediately.

hng33 is the best trader here.

Truth..., enjoy your holidays. Trust we will not be hearing from you anytime soon while we "fools" are going to be trapped for a few years, I think in a good place. Many have called it a day before you and they are yet to come back to this thread unless they are using new nom de plumes now. There shall be more after you.

Well, to each his own.

Some of us are looking forward to regular upward re-ratings as AAB strengthens, grows and matures in the next few years which will mean higher dividends and capital appreciation for us from our investments.

Cheers.

Every dark cloud has a silver lining.

Don't bank on AAB sliding down in price as a sure thing. Now that the Wellingtons have turned invisible like the spirits, you can't see them but you may yet feel their force if and when they exit in grand style.

Who dares to rule out the Wellingtons taking full advantage of the golden opportunity ahead to roll up the price either on their own accord or in tandem with the recent market makers as they exit? Almost all conditions are aligned in harmony for a perfect takeoff and flight of the year.

Some of us respond to changing situations faster than others. Some are influenced by the fundamentals while some by the recent low prices. If the stock is undervalued according to the potential investors and the scripts are low in supply, the the price will move up faster. Traders will lock in profits more frequently.

I have despatched my proxy forms to to AAB's registered office in Menara Prima Tower B. All for the resolution.

Vultures, stop circling in the sky and please go perch elsewhere because there is no dying flesh here to feed on.

Wow really. Wasn't even looking.

I bought at all levels from 1.99 to 1.91. Keeping.

Making a mountain out of a mole hill...that is the market's reaction to the 1MDB's USD50m interest payment default.

Nothing has changed in a big way since early March. All sound and fury, signifying nothing.

I am swayed differently. If the price stay low below 2.00, I shall be more inclined to vote against the resolution because why share the cake at a discount when things are manageable as they are?

Let the gearing remain on the current level as AA can cope albeit must struggle harder to stay ahead. QIt will remain difficult defend AA, come another frivolous attack ala GMT+shortists. Expansion plans will stay their natural course depending internal cashflow, new borrowings or cash calls.

With the present 20% dividend policy, we can still expect an 8 to 10c dividend next year conservatively.

Focus on the coming events listed below.

EGM for Shareholders' Approval of PP - 9 May
Prelim Operating Statistics Report - 2nd week? May
FY15 4c ST Final Div Ex-date - 26 May
1Q16 Results - Last few days May

Going to be euphoric, right? The momentum is going to blow through all resistance barriers.

Earlier IBs' reports said or suggested that Tune Air S/B was owned 50:50 by TF and KM. If that was correct, it would appear that the ownership status has changed as Dato' Abdel Aziz @ Abdul Aziz Bin Abu Bakar is revealed to be a shareholder of TASB as well and who else we may wonder?

Dato' Abdel Aziz is linked to Naim Indah Corporation Berhad.

The happy day will come, only a question of when.

There is not much point in speculating on the true intention or reasons for the sales of 8,557,000 AAB shares by TASB in the last four days of trading. A similar thing happened when TASB sold 3,500,000 AAB shares from 1st to 4th of March this year.

Both times, the buyer is the same person in Dato Abdel Aziz @ Abdul Aziz bin Abu Bakar, a director and shareholder of TASB. So, all the disposed shares are still in the family, so to speak.

Why have they done that? I don't really know because no explanation was proffered and there is no compulsion to do so.

All we know is the last time it happened, the share price shot up when it was expected to tank by many so called pundits. Will the market respond in the same manner this time? Probably not, but who can tell for sure?

If you like what you see, you may like to hold or buy some more. If not, maybe you should sell some to do yourself justice. I think I still like what I am seeing in AAB, a lot.