valuegrowth, if bonuses given to staff have been based on base salaries, then the amount will be significantly lower, probably less than their monthly income except for ground staff. I think flight crews' base salaries could be as little as 20% of their monthly income.

MAA's staff costs in 3Q16 was RM220 million. The staff recently received bonuses equivalent to between 3 to 6 months pay each. Assuming an average staff bonus of 4 months pay equivalent, the 1Q17 staff costs could be bumped up by around RM290 million to around RM510 million.

The three largest operational expenses for AirAsia are fuel, staff and PPE depreciation, in that order.

Using 3Q16 as a database for this simple projection of cost implication of the new extra excise tax on jet fuel to TAA;

Fuel consumed: 992,916 barrels or ~157,873,644 litres
Extra excise tax: 3.8 Bahts per litre
Total extra excise tax (based on 100% TAA flights affected): ~599,919874 Bahts
Total number of passengers carried: 4,326,526
Extra excise tax cost per passenger: 138.66 Bahts

Clearly, the additional charge of 150 Bahts is more than sufficient to cover the extra costs.

Still having problems.

Testing ... having problem uploading comnents since last night.

Now that TF&KM have increased their shareholdings to 32.4%, I don't think the sharks and shortists would try to ram the price down anymore. Would be nice though so that we can load up some more on the cheap.

It is amazing that there are people who worry about TF selling his shares to take profit. I wonder a little if he may want to privatise AA if only to simplify the listing process in HKEX.

I would not say that 4Q16 will be a disappointment compared to 4Q15 just yet based on the released POS figures. For MAA, the PLF is 2% better in 4Q16 than 4Q15 despite a capacity increase of 2%. Passengers carried actually increased by 5%. The indicators ASK and RPK are also superior YoY. Average fuel costs were lower YoY too, being USD75/Barrel in 4Q15 and around USD65/Barrel in 4Q16.

The indicators are superior too in 4Q16 compared to 3Q16 which offers reasons to be optimistic.

If the average fare and Unit Passenger Revenue for 4Q16 come in higher than RM164 and RM209 respectively, the operation figures for Y16 will not disappoint anyone.

For me, the completion of the 559m private placement is virtual confirmation that the AAC project is running along like clockwork.

Good. That way the whole AirAsia family will grow stronger and stronger as their planes spread wider and wider across the world.

Excellent ruling by the Supreme Court.

It is too soon to judge. A picture has been painted but how accurate is the picture really? Don't be so quick to condemn people.

Maybe there aren't any FF shortists around today. CW30 issued by MIBB (Maybank) expires on 31 Jan 2017. Exercise price is 1.58 and conversion ratio is 2:1. Based on Friday's close of 2.58, they would end up paying 50c per call warrant minus a small fee for management/processing. The closing price to be used to determine the actual payout will be the VWAP of the 5 days from today till Friday. The last time i took a casual count of the total traded volume of CW30 was just about 21m or more. Given that the total number they can issue is 100m, i would say the sold units would be close to 20m.

This call warrant exercise would set MIBB back $10m. So if the VWAP can be engineered downwards in these 5 days, they can save some money. But then a botched effort may set them back further.

I suspect TF is raising money to cover for all the charges that he will have to settle before he can draw down the proceeds of his personal offshore loan. He will need to pay for finder's and handling fees, stamp duties, legal and registration fees, consultants and kantautants, all of which will run into tens of millions. He would probably raise extra for contingent purposes.

Trump was crowing again on Twitter about how China will crumble in a trade war:

"In a week after I take office, China will slump. Factories will shut down, shops will close, stock markets will not trade, and government will grind to a halt.

The wealthy will flee overseas with their families, citizens desperately trade their currency for food, doors all across the country will be plastered with red notices and the empty streets will reek of lingering gunpowder.

The people, with nothing to do will turning to day-long drinking and gambling. Children will roam the streets begging for money. Sad !"
~

China foreign ministry: "That's Chinese New Year, you dumb dumb."

@$2.63/unit

Two transactions were done off-market yesterday totalling 5.2926 million shares.

Payment of $1 billion for 559 million new shares must happen first.

Imagine what will happen if Tony makes some definitive statements over the weekend regarding his $1 billion capital injection for the 559 million new shares and the names of successful suitors for AAC? There will be a furious scrambling for shorts covering and orders for new investment positions on Monday.

We are only blind about the timing. So dont bite more than you can chew to stay out of trouble.

Could have bottomed already but there has not been any sign of capitulation this time, so no call of a sure bottom yet. Not much shorting activities even though TA is so bearish because of countering strong FA. Shortists are not confident of making a kill because at this level AA and TF's bankers are ready to inflict maximun damage against any hostile predators should they try any foolhardy attack. The price movements are more likely in the control of an operator. The recent consolidation has become more severe than expected due to necessary repositionings to accomodate for changes in the operation environment. The game is not finished yet but if you drop your balls, it will be game over for you. That is how I read it.

People forget that AA is turning over the fleet by hiving off the older planes as the new neos are delivered. It is an upgrading process to be more cost efficient in the face of rising competition in the operating arena where you either survive or die.

There is an ongoing attrition process the background as well as the fleet builds up so the fleet expansion is not as aggressive as it appears.

http://agbrief.com/news/vietlott-launches-jackpot-lottery-hanoi

Excerps from a posting dated 8 Dec 2016 in the Viet-News;

"In the first day in Hanoi, the company achieved the sales of VND 1,689 billion.

According to the statistics, the lottery sales in Hanoi at the end of the date 5th December 2016 reached VND 1,689 billion, on an average of VND 11.89 million / terminal. It can be considered as a positive start for trading computing lottery of Vietlott in this market – the company confirmed."

11.89m x 150 = 1783.5m, so VND1,700m computes. This means the revenue collected in the first day of operation was about RM335,000. The net profit imputed at 10% will be about RM33,500 for the day.


Another new report posted by Asian Gaming Brief in the evening of 5 Dec 2016 stated that Vietlott's total revenue has reached VND1 trillion, presumely refering to Berjaya GTI's computerised lotteries only since it was qualified by "since its launch on July 18, 2016". I can assume the lottery business that BJCorp is engaged in Vietnam has collected a total revenue of about RM197 million during the four and half months of operation. Net profit so far about RM20 million?

I consider KYY a very good man basically and there are few like him around.

A kind hunter may give a young hunter one of his rifles to help him start off but the novice must learn and pick up the hunting skills to be able to use it reliably and productively over time. And expect to come back empty handed ocassionally some trips. A hunting trip may even end up with disaster.

It is not everybody's destiny to be very wealthy materially but we all have a part to play in this impermanent world and we can choose to make it a better place while we are here or the otherwise. Griping about failure and blaming others helps nobody especially yourself. You are supposed to learn from the experience to enrich yourself, afterall failure is the mother of success.

Market price to book ... discounted by more than 78%. Wonder what the actual RNAV looks like.

If can make good amount of money on BJCorp in 2017, will spend some time at Kyoto Four Seasons Hotel to enjoy the surroundings of the 800 year old pond.

Many players unwittingly cut profits instead, when they take profit.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/klcis-earnings-growth-2017-set-be-stronger-year-says-midf-research

http://stockaholics.net/threads/the-deadly-art-of-stock-manipulation.2089/

I am glad somebody finally say it. Running an airline isn't everybody's cup of tea and neither is investing in airline stocks.

I started buying back when price went below 2.60 and stopped it went below 2.50. Started again when the price rebounded after touching 2.32 but will stop if price breaks below 2.28. PE is below 3.05 now based on TTM and current share base. Never expected this much price retracement with all the 'works in progress' ongoing fairly smoothly and predictably but it should be very healthy and good fof the next rally. I am glad to be able to buy this cheap probably for the rest of the year. It is quite surreal tbh but I'll take it as my X'mas & new year present. It will be really nice if there is an uptick in early January and a modest rally in February.

I am not making a buy call.

Ok, now the boss is talking with the share price rising,

Cheap fuels when the energy landscape changes in the not too distant future.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/energy-%E2%80%98tsunamis%E2%80%99-threaten-drag-oil-down-us10-engie-says

Typo correction to a previous posting .... 51% balance instead of 5% ...

The so called losses are just resultant figures from the remeasurement exercise due to changed conceptual treatments in accounting. Perpetual bonds are treated as equity instead of debts in accounting.

Not really losses but leasing charges by MAA to IAA which were previously booked as revenue and subsequently reversed out to be converted into perpetual bonds together with other loans made by MAA to IAA, all of which had become doubtful in the eyes of GMT then and also in response to Indonesia's DGCA requirement that IAA 'address its negative equity position'. Perpetual bonds was proposed to go around the problem of a foreign ownership limitation of 49% there.

MAA promptly subscribed to and took up 49% of the p bonds while the 5% balance would be taken up by the local interested parties or farmed out to new local investors which obviously could not be counted on as we now know. The p bond just taken up by MAA is the remaining 51% ?

Game over? Hardly, I would say. It feels like a party is just about to begin. Let the loser FFs go. The stronger FFs will be back again as buyers after the season's break as the party hots up. Whoever is behind TF can gobble up everything the sellers can put on the table like a tiger eating mosquitoes.

Yahooooooo. More to come.

Chill, everyone. We are all brothers and sisters. Tis the season to be jolly and Santa Claus Tony is coming to town soon to deliver X'mas presents to all of us, if we are good. Besides, CNY is just round the corner too in January 2017, so we need to Fa Ta Chai to be able to celebrate the new year to the hilt. Tony has to double as Chai Shen too. December 2016 and January 2017 gonna be sweet. God bless all.

Talking about patterns, 2010-2011 happening again?

I am staying and will reshuffle my portfolio to weight more on AA should the market let the price slide.

Read it in the news a few months back. Cannot remember where I came across it.

After the big gains in 4Q15 and 1Q16, AA rewarded all their staffs with a fat bonus and payrise in 2Q16 which dented the profits a bit.

Moreover, 2Qs are typically slower business periods and therefore tickets for these periods are priced lower to promote air travel which show up as weaker numbers in the Average Fare, Ancillary Income Per Pax, Unit Passenger Revenue and RASK indicators. A higher load factor indicates a higher efficiency of revenue generating resources allocation and a higher number of passengers carried indicates a bigger size of the market served.

AirAsia's 20% dividend policy excludes non-core profits including non-cash forex gains if any. So, TheEdge's dividend expectation for AirAsia is not correct.

That was a correct thing to do if that was what you wanted to do.

It wasn't that complicated. Danny keyed in to sell before the trading session had opened. Queued sellers and buyers' bids were confusing and wide apart. Frantic to sell before a potential steep dive, his remisier probably advised to key in a low enough sell order for a surer sale to happen.

Another trader or investor had other ideas and decided to sailang all the sell orders at and below 2.53 and altogether 72,500 units were matched at the opening price of 2.53.

Danny's sales had been done 2.53 obviously.

Warren Buffett had been allergic to airline stocks for 2 decades or so and has now flipped his opinion to take up stakes in 4 American airlines recently. You can bet he is going in for the long term for someone whose policy is to hold forever stocks he picks that prove to be good.

He must have been convinced by the favourable parameters he sees in the working environment that airlines will be operating in. In fact conditions will be better than he thinks since he had not expected Trump in the White house. Oil will be far cheaper with Trump backing fracking and coal mining and the US economy will finally perk up and boom with all the new expansionary policies in place. The whole world economy will be lifted by them.

Google 2016 us election results live

How much collateral damage will AA suffer for being caught in the crossfire between Tata and Cyrus?