What is going to happen tomorrow is anybody's guess.

For the investor, nothing big is going to happen. For the seasoned stockist/trader, he may short some if the price moves up enough or long some if it moves down enough. For the valiant contrarian retailer, he will continue striving to buy low sell high, buy at any price to sell higher or cut loss until surrender or incapacity.

Definition of gap up and gap down ...

"A gap is a break between prices on a chart that occurs when the price of a stock makes a sharp move up or down with no trading occurring in between. Gaps can be created by factors such as regular buying or selling pressure, earnings announcements, a change in an analyst's outlook or any other type of news release."

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp

I wonder if China Everbright group might want to take up a strategic stake of say 15% or more in AirAsia in the event the reported China ventures are realised. I also wonder if they might be the eventual buyers of AAC.

The shareholders list has been given a thorough scrub. The base spread should now have a larger group of hardened hardcore investors compared to before. It should have a group of rejuvenated old punters, traders and investors building new positions with new targets. It has also received a fresh infusion of new ardent shareholders looking for capital gains.

Based on future outlooks, maturing catalysts and renewed investors' zest, the momentum should build up to carry AA beyond 4.00 this year.

With due respect to Mohsin Aziz, his forecast of AA's 2017EPS is too conservative.

Give a little time for the TA metrics to unwind first after the last few days' misguided misadventure, then the upward march will resume. This afternoon looks likely.

I am aware of the liaison between AA and China Everbright Bank going back to the time when Tony was talking about privatising AA not long after the attacks by short sellers in the aftermath of the damning GMT Research report.

Now that the bank's mother, China Everbright Group, has turned up to become part of a tripartite group to develop a LCC airline and a LCC terminal based in Henan Province's capital, Zhengzhou, wouldn't that conjure up pictures of all sorts of different tie-up possibilities to the extent of even affecting earlier AA's plans?

In a scenario with AAC sale being aborted or put on the back burner, what is so terrible about it? It will remain in the BS and grow bigger until a fair day when the right suitor comes along. But I still believe that an imminent sale is near, given the willing seller and the prime quality of the asset.

3.06 now, high of 3.09 ... attaboy! AA investors, way to go!

How to read it ...

Plan for aa to be discussed today. Threefold good earning. Strong ancilliary income, good dividend and special dividend every two years.

Too wishful?

I say it's better to keep them as separate entities. They are different animals. Although both are LCCs, one is into short and the other long haul operations. The management and usage of planes and flight crews are quite different thus requiring you to wear different thinking hats. The 2 working models respond to changes in working environment conditions differently. Moreover, AAX is mulling over going full service which, should it need to happen, would be a complete transmutation.

I am not saying one outfit will forever be better than the other. I just like to be able to buy something more easily defined or less complex. Very likely, I would own shares in both counters but hold different expectations from them.

Currently still more bullish on AA but starting to like AAX now because of expected long term continuation of low jet fuel costs including even lower prices in future.

25% shares in China ventures is a bonanza already. Don't take too big a bite that you can't chew and swallow. Compare 25 to zero %, consider who holds the ground and money, and you will be most grateful.

Fecilitations, jubilation and celebration. China AirAsia akan datang.

LCCs are disrupting the full service airlines business but a boon to airports and world tourism. Lower Ringgit does help to bring more international travellers to Malaysia.

Low Ringgit effect drawing foreign tourists to Malaysia for cheap holidays.

It pays to keep your mind objective when surrounded by euphoria.

I am looking at EPS of 55.5c in FY17 with full disposal of AAC completed by end of 3Q17 and I expect AA to be re-rated at 8× PER before the year 2017 is over, and another re-rating to 10× PER in FY18 with EPS of 46.9c. I think prices are heading for the $4 and above territory.

Yeah, fantastic cash generator because of high profits, payments for seats, luggage and other items are received long before services are rendered, and there is plenty of provision for depreciation of aircrafts and engines.

Agreed issue price RM1.84 less RM0.04 Div paid = RM1.80 settlement amount per new issue.

Total number of shares outstanding as at 31st Dec 2016 was 2783 million. PP of 559 million new shares @RM1.80ea was concluded 20th Jan 2017. Now go do the maths.

I see hng33 still strikes like a ninja, agile and sharp.

Revenue per unit passenger in 4Q16 was already RM233.

http://www.atimes.com/article/global-times-china-accept-surgical-strike-north-korea/

Kesian r°Moi and other early supporters missing out.

To enjoy the 12c dividend, make sure you do not sell your shares until after 22nd May. Earliest you can sell is on 23rd May.


Posted by angelol > Apr 20, 2017 11:11 AM | Report Abuse
12cent dividend, 23 may ex-date, 25 may entitlement date. When is the earliest date I sell AA share but still able to enjoy the dividend?

There was probably a fairly big buy order on Wednesday.

What a beauty

As it is, it is already bullish.

We shall see if a Harami will be confirmed tomorrow by a gap-up opening.

We may end the day with a bullish Harami.

I am still expecting a special dividend of around $1.20 per share. The annual divvy is 2 cents more than my expectation. Thanks Tony and team.

Why worry about the incidental blips of rising oil prices during a long term downtrend of oil prices due to major structural changes in the world's O&G industries with the advent of cheap shale oil and gas? The big picture says at least 5 to 10 years based on current technology and factors. Nobody would bet against production costs of shale oil dropping significantly further with improved technology thereby stretching the period of downtrend indefinitely.

Tony has been working with great passion and at a furious pace since December 2014. The results show in our AA shares value.

Well, that is one of the things diligent people who look after listed companies do, selling the company. If many big individual investors and funds both big and small like what they hear, they might look deeper and decide to invest in the company. When the demand for a company's shares goes up, so does its share price, normally.

AA has been on road shows more than a couple of times in the last one and half years.

Tony was in HK for the Credit Suisse organised Asian Investment Conference to promote AirAsia to funds and investors.

dnn78, thanks for your advice. You know how it is with some people ... sensitive and easily offended.

Wow, look at it fly!

Excellent new venture, Vietnam! Please don't ask Sir Richard Branson to dress up in bikinis to promote the launching of the maiden flight. That would be big time disastrous against Vietjet's lovely stewardesses in bikinis in an asian setting.. What more, the image of a Neanthedral drag queen seared into your brain would be painful. His famed bikini girls are okay. So are our sharp looking ladies in red equally spirit lifting.

No insult intended, I'm a fan of all things great.

The Dublin based aircrafts leasing group, AWAS, is expensive. Chances are a Chinese suitor will take over our AAC at at a decent price in a 'win - win' deal.

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/chinese-make-22bn-bid-for-dublin-aircraft-lessor-awas-34553771.html

SPA & SSA execution does not mean signing and sealing of contracts, only that the process towards that will begin and as indicated in AA's AIC presentation dossier, possibly on 7 April.

Ended with not quite a long-legged doji. Hopefully good enough to portend a continued uptrend.

Hold on tightly is a better choice.

The operator may be gradually casting off weight ballasts given that AA has become more buoyant pricewise lately. It could be a sign that the group is getting ready to exit and we shall be seeing AA's fair market value soon. Of course AAC divestment appears to be nearing a positive conclusion and heralding fat dividends announcements. Next, the market can focus on divestment of Expedia and IPO exercises for IAA, PAA and AACE.

However, time will tell how enjoyable the path ahead will be like. A steady ascent or othewise? Dark clouds are starting to gather now as a gravestone doji flashed on and off my screen all afternoon a.nd even threatening to evolve into a shooting star now.

AAC was only set up in Sep 2014, so it does not have a meaningful record of time tested history of existence. In fact only the last 3 AA quarterly reports have provided dedicated financial accounts of AA.

I have a simple 5 minutes valuation method. Using info data in the 4Q16 being the latest and arguably most relevant AAC account, we have;
Net Profit: ~USD28.5
Aircrafts: 59 & allow 50% of 4 for full Qtr
Assumption: AAC sale goes with 70 planes

Net Profit per Qtr per plane = 28.5 ÷ 61 = ~USD0.467
NP generated by 70 planes per Qtr = 70 × 0.467 = USD32.69
Annual NP = 32.69 × 4 = USD130.76, Y2018 ceteris paribus
Valuation of AAC = 130.76 × 10(PER) = ~USD1.308b

If bidder buys 100% of AAC, price is USD1.308b.
If bidder buys 51% of AAC price, a premium surcharge of 30% applies, ie 0.51 × 1308 × 1.3 = ~USD867m, minimum dividend guarantees to apply.

My back of matchbox workings.

Ok, the last time we were in this territory was 7 months ago and it lasted just over a week. Looks like it may be better this time.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/airasia-rises-5-news-korean-firm-preferred-bidder-asia-aviation-stake

Aw shucks, bids opened already. I must have slept past noon time.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

Maybe KOTAM's offer is based on 59 aircrafts only as that was the number at the end of 3Q2016. At the end of 4Q2016 the number had gone up to 63 and it will be 70 at the end of 2017. Maybe the deal will see a second staggered payment for the additional 11 aircrafts after all the transfers have been completed in due time?

I thought there were 2 Japanese submissions out of 12 earlier on, no?

KOTAM's offer for a stake in AAC is less than USD900 million.