just in my humble opinion, even if you miss this boat, there is plenty of opportunity for accumulation next year .... market will be volatile next year.

anyone got any update about Sungai Long project?

this is one company that really cannot die - and can still run high....can sleep well owning this company :-)

those who buy at current price stands to win...nothing to lose....huge, huge freaking margin of safety

sharp rebound~!!!

yes...still holding to SymLife. What is your average cost?

@JN88, do you still hold SymLife?

@ JN88, just asking, why the big sharks dump this share? and how they make profit by dumping this share so low?

importantly, why management does not engage in shares buyback ? this price is considered lelong price

Icon8888 vs Optimuss (Prime) = clash of the two titans !!!

@ JN88, then, how do you explain for other counters like Gadang, Tambun INdah and PLenitude which increase abit dee?

i support Icon8888. By the way, i am a chartered accountant and i find what icon8888 said in his posting about GOB makes alot of sense. By the way, i am not his lackey.

something is wrong with this counter. Today - other counters like Plenitude and Tambun - all rise very fast - but this bugger is still stuck.

@ JN88, do you have news update about the proposed state acquisition on the Sungai Long land?

Hi guys, total newbie here. Just wanna ask a few questions before catching the falling knife.
(1): Since Gadang is in the construction industry, is there any risk of bad debts? I think Gadang is actually taking projects from the government and not from independent third party?
(2): Who is the subcontractor for Gadang's property division? I think given that Gadang is a contractor / it maybe building its own properties rather than finding a sub-contractor to build its own properties?

to be fair, other good companies like Tambun INdah and Plenitude is also experiencing free falls in their shares.
If we want to worry - let us not worry about share price but rather on the market segment that this company serves. SymLife seems to be serving the premium market which is expected to be badly hit by 2015.

Not so worried about SymLife because their net assets per share stands at RM2.00 per the latest quarterly results. If we exclude the "soft" assets and just test the hard assets - like their PPE, property development costs, land, trade receivables, cash and deduct that against their total liabilities, net assets per share still stand at about RM1.50. This is lower than my average cost of RM1.16. This has not even include their revaluation gains. So, this counter is quite safe in my humble opinion.

Furthermore, if management decided not to launch any new projects and just sell off their shares in their JVs (and leave their land intact), this will still cover their operating expenses/ fixed overheads for the next 2 years.

@ JN88, well - what you said may be right. Hahaha :-)

Anyway, i am planning to head down to KL in 2015 to visit SymLife's properties. Sometimes, hitting the road and looking at the real thing on the ground is very important. That is how we validate the qualities of the companies we invest in.

By the way, i expect the price for SymLife will stay in the oversold region for these coming months. So, no hurries to shoot down to KL during Dec'14.

Come and think about it, if the qualities of SymLife deliverables is so bad, why the forumers at Lowyat do not want to form an action group to complain SymLife to consumers association/ housing board/ print it in the press/ sue SYmLife as these are the avenues allowed by the law? Especially house buyers are protected by the HDA laws.

I mean if i am going to buy a RM700K to RM1.0M lemon, this is what i will do. Definitely will not go down without a fight.

I mean taking it out on Lowyat is utterly pointless.

Hi Icon8888, thanks for your feedback. You have been very kind to me. I know that i maybe a pain in the ass...Being new in the share market, i went through your articles (from part 1 to 12) and your postings (as well as James70 posting) about GOB many times and have about 80% of what you said (in the few postings above) covered when applying for GOB's rights issue.


Except for the corporate governance part.
"I spoke to some investment bankers. They ruled out Malton merger with GOB. This is because Desmond is not the only strong shareholders. There are few other strong shareholders. There is check and balance in place. Desmond doesn't really have a free hand to abuse the company."

That is why when Optimuss drop a bomb about the asset stripping, i nearly shit in my pants. But it is better to be thought as a fool than to keep quiet. Sometimes, it is the things that we do not know that kill us.



A few more questions before calling it a night.
I noticed from the Analysis of Shareholdings, about 60% of the shares are at the hands of the retailers. Why this is not a tightly held company? Do you think this will change post rights issue? Whereby the investment banks who underwrite these rights will keep a portion for their own investments? Also, why investment banks will not underwrite a company if they think it is full of shit? I mean do investment banks owe the prospective rights applicants a duty of care? Or it is just a reputation risk to them?

Sorry for asking so many questions.

If not mistaken, Patrick's demise is mainly due to the failure of PGCC (Penang GLobal city center) during the last 2x GEs. Thereafter, he sold Equine to the new shareholders - of which the market rumours that Desmond Lim is a substantial shareholder but his name does not appear on records. He maybe holding it via nominees. Equine is then renamed to Global Oriental Berhad as we know now.

But you are right.
Why want to hide behind a veil? Also, it seems there are business transactions between GOB and Malton - things like Malton selling the Sungai Long land to GOB and the contractors for Da'Mein is Domain Resources ( a company owned by Malton). It seems both GOB and Malton is inextricably related and sometimes, one wonders whether the transactions are done at arm's length or tilting in favour of Malton.

I am just afraid if Malton gets into trouble, Malton may "force" GOB to buy assets from Malton at unreasonable prices. Or this may lead to GOB being coerced into swapping its crown jewel, the Batu Kawan land to Malton based on very unfavourable terms to GOB.

Also, it seems Wee Beng Aun (formerly from Malton) is seen as the "director" of GOB whilst the chairman appears more like a figurehead.

I maybe thinking too much now...but these things are playing at the back of my head all this while....just that your previous comments really surface my fears~!

It is better to know both good news and bad news...rumour can be very revealing sometimes.....
Anyway, i apologise again if i hurt your feelings with the dumb posting i made just now - both of which i have promptly deleted.

I think it is better to have more friends who will show the way - than to have enemies.

I apologise again. Thanks for bring up the possibility of asset stripping. I will definitely be on the look out for such signs....

Sorry Optimuss. I am really sorry for appearing rude/ sarcastic - because i felt kind of angry that the market turn the other way. Now that there is a possibility of asset stripping from GOB, i have just gone crazy.... at the spur of the moment, i have written stupid things that i have promptly deleted.

If this is true...then, this whole thing is just a wayang kulit....

I will never ever buy any shares for the rest of my life~!!

@ Optimuss...please correct me if i am wrong here.
Equine is due to Patrick Lim. Besides, GOB is currently applying for approval from MPPP Penang to approve their Batu Kawan phase (i don't know which phase) for sales launches early next year. Why bother to apply for approval and then strip the land later?

Just to reconfirm - i will drive down to Batu Kawan sales office to validate by this Saturday (20th Dec 2014). Just to be safe, will go up to Penang city council to check on the approval status for GOB Batu Kawan.

Times like this, better hit the ground to check the facts.

Besides, Malton have their own JV running at Batu Kawan (300 acres). Why Malton wants GOB's land (350 acres) for Batu Kawan? I don't think Malton has the capacity to develop over 600 acres of land.

Any reason why you said such as thing about asset striping ?

Thanks for the heads up.

@ Optimuss/ Icon8888, between sitting on paper losses for a few years versus company sinking under the weight of its own debt, i rather choose paper losses....

@ Optimuss - why do you say so?

@ Optimuss....regret about GOB? Depends regret about what? Regret i bought at RM1.07? Yes. Could have bought lower. Indeed, market gave me a few times of opportunities to average down but i do not take it. Regret that i subscribe to GOB's rights issue? No.

But now, just scared about GOB's level of debt - sitting at about quarter of a Million. Scared the level of debt is not sustainable.

By the way, i believe in Batu Kawan. The US MNC that i work in (cannot tell you the name) recently invest RM1.0B at Batu Kawan and GOB's land is just 5KM from the new plant.

@ Icon8888, By the way, what do you think of GOB's debt? I am afraid it may go to Holland....the debt level is at a quarter of a million...

Hi Icon8888, for GOB - it seems the mother price is priced at RM0.50 - which is the same as the rights issue price. We live in very interesting time now.... :-)

By the way, i went through your Gadang article. It seems you are very interested about Capital 21 and does not mention anything about Gadang's construction order book. Why is that so?

look at this lowyat forum...
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1517542/+1640

i bloody hope SymLife will buy up their own shares...if i am going to ride out this storm....please give me some treasury shares to compensate.....

Hi Icon8888. Just asking, why people is equating 2015 to 1997 financial crisis? This is very worrying...

@ JN88, it seems you are a seasoned investor. Can you help to check out the quality of deliverables for SymLife?

waiting for it to drop until all year low

@ Rich118, i am scouring through the prospectus and noted that there are some shitty litigation cases going on involving GOB which are listed in the appendix...what is your opinion? This is the type of shit that make you cannot sleep at night.

@ Rich118, i applied for the rights. Mind to share what is your average cost for GOB?

Hi Rich118, do you subscribe for the GOB rights issuance in full? do you apply for excess as well?

@ Rich118; about the industrial land by Vitron.
My company recently expanded into Batu Kawan (BK). From what i know, the price of the industrial land being acquired approximates the price paid by Vitron. But there is a catch being that construction must be completed within a certain time period, failure of which will incur penalty and the land must be returned to the state at a cheaper price than being acquired. What this means is that you cannot benefit from price appreciation (and will lose) by playing with state land zoned for industrial purpose at BK.

I believe you cannot just compare between industrial land (leased by the state government) versus the typical 99 years leasehold land owned by GOB. The end game is different.

The state government is looking at the investment packages offered by the MNCs and the benefits/ multiplier effects generated by these investments and how the benefit will spill over to the state. The state government will be willing to "lease" at cheaper prices per square feet if the package is deemed to benefit the state economy in the long run. This end game is different compared to GOB who is more than willing to go slow. Like launching projects at BK by phases and increasing the selling price per phase to maximise revenue.

All of it will be good for the shareholders...provided if management takes care of minority shareholders and stop creating tsunami waves in the counter.

@ Rich118, do they have an online website which provides an update of "Analysis on Shareholding" ? Rather than having to wait until the end of the year....

@ Rich118, thanks for your posting,... what other risks can you foresee besides the following?
- high borrowings?
- management integrity?
- possible delay in JV with LGM?
- no visibility of Batu Kawan project?
- too many retail shareholders holding more than 50% of its shareholdings?
- anything else you want to add?
We may try to assess these risks one by one...

By the way, please teach me where to get the information on the number of accounts and percentage of shareholdings in each accounts? Like where to get the data:
<Out of the 65% shareholdings held by 213 accounts, only 1 account holds more than 6.5% with the remaining 212 accounts holds between 100,000 to 11.3 mln shares. 6,260 accounts hold the next 23% of shareholding totalling 77.3 mln shares with shareholding of 1,000 to 100,000 shares per account. >

It seems that the company is in need of funds to gear up for project launches in 2015:
JV with Lembaga Getah: GDV RM1.2B.
Seri Kembangan: EQ City & Villa Heights: GDV RM401.0M,
Batu Kawan: GDV RM662.0M,
Sungai Long land: GDV RM200.0M.

Hence, we are looking at a company which is on a fast growth track and in need of loans to expand. Next year 2015 is going to be very challenging for Malaysia. What if their projects do not sell well?
The other positive points:
Both the land at Seri Kembangan and Batu Kawan is cheap relative to the market and will afford fat gross margins.
All the projects due to launch for 2015 are located at prime locations.

But this is just my guess.

Furthermore, in relation to point #1 as to why the company draws down an additional RM100.0M loans within 6 months?
I believe the major chunk of the loan is to pay off for Da'Men. Based on the prospectus, Da'Men is
- 56% completed, and
- estimated gross development cost = RM1.0B
Simplistically, this means they need an additional loan of RM1.0B x 0,56 = RM550.0M (maximum) to bank roll Da'Men.

I think what happens next is that they will either
- hive off the shopping complex to Pavillion REIT. Based on Icon8888's article, the Da'Men shopping complex itself is worth about RM500M, or
- keep the mall for recurring rental income.
Then again, there is no risk of insolvency given their top brass are from Malton/ Pavillion. They definitely know how to run a premium mall and match its rental income against the financing charges.

Having said all of the above, it seems to me that the company needs the cash proceeds from the rights issue and land disposal to finance its future growth rather than just to keep it afloat and service its loans.

@ Rich118,
Back to your point #2 (and point #1): Please correct me if i am wrong here....

The risk is what-if GOB mismanaged their finances, their projects don't sell well and they need the cash proceeds from rights issue and land disposal to pay off its loans.

From the prospectus, the proceeds from the rights issue will be used to pay down the loan for Springville, Galleria and Da'Men (exclude retail mall). All these 3x projects achieved near to 100% TAKE UP RATE (emphasis added) and is expected to be completed during 2015/ 2016.

This means it is NOT that the projects are not saleable. In my opinion, what mgmt is trying to do is to retire as much loan attached to these projects as early as possible (rather than bootstrapping and waiting until 2015/2016) and to roll the money to finance future project launches.

today's share price is for show only...to entice the ikan bilis to subscribe

Hi - about point 2, let us not forget about the land disposal at Seri Kembangan which will bring in RM142.0M cash proceeds.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/63239.jsp

By the way, about point 3; why the investment banks want to dispose off the remaining shares? Just a dumb question. Why don't they keep it?

@southwark: hate to admit it - but it seems you have a point.
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1517542/+1640

Hi guys - just asking, planning to apply for excess (in addition to the rights that i am entitled to). Just asking, in applying for the excess rights, do i get entitled to the accompanying free warrants? If say, i apply for 2000 rights, do i get 1000 free warrants?

Hi all sifus, i have been monitoring gadang for a long time. Please teach me how does construction companies work? I mean how their balance sheet will relate to their P&L?

Also, some kind soul shared with me - the best property developers who enjoy the highest margin seem to be the ones who construct their own properties. It seems Gadang is one of them.

@ yanxuan8, do you mind to elaborate as well?

Hi Raymondwood, what do you mean by "Probably that is how banker makes money, there are always banker as underwriter to commit subscribe. for the case of GOB, 70%++ is underwritten by bankers." ??

Care to elaborate??

@ Azlan88,
Thanks alot for your inputs. Besides the Sungai Long land carried at low cost, Star Residences, good net assets backing per share, Azman Yahya, what else do you like about this counter?? What future do you see in this counter???

Looking back at the historical price trend, this counter has been trading at RM0.90 to RM1.20 tight band for a long long time....(for 2 years)~!

Also, SymLife seems to going the way of Apple. Come out with innovative products that market wants and subcontract it to builders (like Samsung) to build them. What problems do you foresee with property developers who do not have an in-house construction team?