Just buy 5% of your total planned purchase every time the price drops half a sen. Sure boleh make some money.

Kalau 40sen, boleh all in. Haha

1 faulty transformer caused 20% loss of market cap. It is way too much. It will close not more than 10% down today.

No insurance for loss of income?

The market has spoken.
Capital A is roughly fairly valued at rm3.2b even when it has rm9.4b net liabilities, implying an enterprise value of rm12.6b.
Aax is valued by market currently at rm0.7b.
For capital A to exit pn17, No matter how capital A will settle with its lenders and creditors and no matter how aax share price will evolve, aax need to issue around rm12b worth of new shares.

Wrong. Because capital A liabilities are not forgiven. Net liabilities totalled RM9.3b, mostly overdue.
A scenario could b like this:
They will have to b paid partially by capital A shareholders via rights issue during regularisation scheme. The remainder says RM6b will b transferred to AAX. If capital A is valued at RM12b minus its net liabilities of RM6b, AAX will have to issue AAX shares worth RM6b to capital A shareholders. AAX then has 0.41b plus 3.3b (=6b/rm1.8 assumed fair price of aax) paid up shares in issue. Post-regularisation, AAX will trade at rm1.8 still but with RM6b net liabilities on aax books.
Another likelier scenario:
To exit pn17, net liabilities must disappear. Therefore lenders and creditors of capital A will likely b partially paid and partially converted into equity. Capital A will b worth rm12b but with zero net liabilities. AAX will need to issue 6.66b new shares to acquire aviation biz of capital A. Enlarged shares in issue of aax will b 7.1b units. For rm2b net profits a year, eps will b 28sen a year post regularisation.

Goodwill or negative merge reserve is just difference in accounting method for consolidation. They two are the same for impacts on shareholders for practical purposes.
AAX shareholders will not get any free shares. Capital A aviation biz is 10 times larger than AAX, on net asset basis.

AAX doesn’t need additional financing but its recent private placement at a discount to market price says otherwise and is unwelcome because it shortchanges other minority shareholders.
Logically with aviation industry now flying high, all creditors of Capital A will want all their debts paid, if possible, with interest. That explains why the regularisation plan needed time extension again and again as Tony tries to force haircuts.
It’s unclear whether AAX debt was previously forgiven on the condition that it must later accept injection of aviation biz from capital A. Does AAX have the legal right to reject such a biz injection?
Capital A will certainly need to raise huge funds in conjunction with completion of regularisation plan within itself. This will not involve AAX. What will involve AAX is the price it will pay to acquire the whole aviation biz of capital A. If set too high, AAX will register huge goodwill in its accounts, possibly more than 10 times increase in its share capital to pay for the acquisition, and so wiping off any undervaluation of its shares currently.
That’s the concern.

Why funds get to buy at 1.55 when others all have to pay 1.92? Unfair.

Look at free cash flow. 2023 onwards it may generate RM80-100m free cash flow per year. Then you see its market capitalisation of RM340m. A reasonable market price is at least RM0.40 or RM618m market capitalisation.

AAX need no further capital reduction, share consolidation, and any cash call is purely optional.

This is misleading. Capital A will settle all its restructuring issues with its creditors and fund raising. Then fair enterprise values post-restructuring will be ascribed to Capital A, say RM4B. AAX will then also be ascribed a fair enterprise value, say RM0.8B. AAX will then issue 5 new shares to Capital A shareholders for every existing AAX share in issue.

Congratulations to all shareholders: next destination is RM2.

Price is recovering. Though next two quarterly results will likely be bad, recovery can be expected in Q4 2023.

Tony won’t and shouldn’t sell its shares cheap via rights or special issue for biz acquisition. Minority shareholders won’t agree as they know AAX is financially sound as it is. It is time for rebound next Monday.

AAX wanna issue new shares, tak kan bagi jatur 99 dulu, baru issue at cheap prices.

RM1.82 to RM1.17 in a week.

AAX is financially sound as it is. Any right issue is optional as it doesn’t need additional cash to run its operations normally. Issuance of new shares to pay for aviation biz from capital A will be sufficient to wipe off its accumulated losses. AAx needs no cash calls or creditor payments rescheduling in the upcoming reorganisation.

On the other hand capital A most certainly need to do a rights issue mayb around RM2-3b in conjunction with rescheduling of payment terms with lenders and creditors of around RM2-3b too, so that it can run its operations normally and that it’s accumulated losses can be wiped off.

Capital A and AAX is currently valued at RM3.5b combined. At its peak they two can generate RM2b net profit a year. The current market valuation is definitely not demanding.

Capital A doesn’t control aax. Each has very different shareholders. Their respective valuations for the purpose of share issuance by aax to capital A shareholders will have to reflect their respective existing financial conditions and future profitability.

Only 415m shares in issue. Half are tightly owned. Over last 3 days of falling till now, more than 100m shares were traded. Those who wanna sell mostly have already sold. A bottom may have been found at current price.

Asset injection will be paid for via aax shares which surely have to be set at fair value. This is not right issue for aax, so no discount. The vastly increase in shares in issue will wipe off accumulated losses of aax.

Stand-alone aax will b worth at least RM4. The potential dilution after asset injection depends on valuation of capital A aviation biz, which may not b too high given the high debts it brings over to aax, and a double digit ROI for aax is not that bad too.

A very important factor delaying the reorganisation is negotiations with creditors of capital A on how much haircuts to debt will be taken by creditors. This will determine capital a final valuation. Ultimately, aax should do well because air travel is booming.

After quarterly results announcement, it shot up from RM0.80 to RM1.82. It’s consolidating now. If it can hold at RM1.35 at closing today, the next rise may take it to RM2.50. Keep buying every time it comes down 10-15sen, till the next wave of panic-buying resumes.

The next 10m shares traded will be consolidation around 1.4 as weak hands are being washed out. Then the further 10m shares to be traded will decide whether it hits 1.28 or 1.48. Sit tight.

AAX’s maintainable eps is about RM0.50 a year. Any reorganisation or asset injection must be paid for by issuance of AAX’s shares at fair value based on that maintainable eps. and should be value-accretive to AAX’s shareholders. AAX has no borrowings now, as lease liabilities are basically capitalisation with a corresponding lease assets.

Aax has to be fairly valued before any reorganisation scheme. It makes rm0.50 eps a year, and its fair value has to be above rm2 to make sense.

Tony and allies seemingly control less than 50% of aax. Can they force thru a deal that’s not value-accretive to aax?

A lot depends on whether the company will manage shareholders’ expectation by giving dividend of at least 1-1.5sen, to be announced by end of next month. If it can give 5% yield at current market price, most shareholders will support and won’t sell their shares.

Q4 2022 struck the company very hard as some inventories in hand were sold subsequently at a loss, triggering some inventory impairment. This shows the company’s biz model isn’t very resilient and is subject to huge fluctuations in their product demand. The coming quarterly results in May are important as shareholders would like to see that the company at least stop bleeding operating cash, ie sustaining net losses of less than RM17m. The slowdown in order is very severe but the moment the company can guide via prospect commentary that recovery is insight, the share price will recover in tandem. But this company’s share always moved way before quarterly results announcement, so you may wanna give this company at least 2 more quarters before it can return to profitability.

It’s reasonable or even prudent to estimate that an average RM0.50 net profit after tax per share a year may be achieved in coming two years. At current price, the PE is 2. Net current liabilities of the company arise from advance from customers which need not be repaid so long as the company’s operation runs as usual. It’s free financing to the company.

31 sen is cigarette-butt price. Demand for its products will recover after a quarter or two. In 2022, this company still made RM116m operating cash. In 2023, maybe just RM20-30m. But in 2024, it should rise to around RM80-90m. Buy when others are fearful.

Changed financial year end in order to delay quarterly financial results announcement by 3 months, during which time operators pumped the shares up by 200%, and then dumped all.

The company generated RM116m operating cash in 2022, an improvement of RM5m over 2021. Shareholders would hope 2021 dividend of RM0.015 will be maintained for 2022, to be announced in Apr 2023.

RM60m impairments and write-offs at year end. Excluding the foregoings, the company broke even ie didn’t make or lose any cash from operations in latest quarter. Orders have shrunk a lot amidst falling selling prices. The company’s return to positive accounting profits depends entirely on recovery of global furniture demand.

Look at the total cash flow, the cash profits and EBITDA it generates each year, not just earnings or PE. Depreciation expense a year which is non-cash is RM0.09 a year. Look at how its cash balance grew over past years, and into future when capex needs diminish. Keep accumulating and hold tight till RM1.

Tail-end clearance of inventory sales back to Dyson. In coming quarters, revenue should drop further.

From the latest quarterly results, the company biz and profits remained good. Maybe slowdown has yet to set in, but when it comes it should be mild and swift in passing. Going forward, this company generates RM150m operating cash flow a year with insignificant capex, now selling to you for RM360m. This company should be trading at around RM1b market capitalisation or RM1.18 per share, now that it has expanded its downstream biz, started moving its fibreboard manufacturing to Indonesia and completed internal cost structure rationalisation. The current share price looks very appealing.

A few possibilities:
1) Biz orders, sales and average selling prices plunged.
2) Management made a big mistake like holding too much inventory when average selling prices are plunging or allowing receivables to shoot up. These tighten cash flow and increase future losses.
3) Public free float is very high in this company. 500m plus shares are speculative in nature and panicked easily when global asset sell off occurred. Fundamentally, the company remains sound.
4) A fraud has occurred but this is unlikely as the company made no public announcement in that respect.

Insiders would sell first as usual if there’s anything untoward that already happened . Outsider Shareholders can only hope the sell off in the company is only due to factor 3). Let’s see.

Lumber prices crashed from usd14000 in May 2023 to usd400 now in US. Shareholders panicked and threw off Evergreen. Not sure how well the company can manage its average selling price especially in its upstream biz.

Excluding net cash, the company is selling for less than RM100m. Net operating cash flow for 2022 will be at least RM35m. First 2 quarters of 2022 saw it make RM22m operating cash flow. Japan is opening up its tourism again to foreigners, and a stronger economy in Japan bodes well for Hevea. It’s a super-cheap price now for the major shareholders to take the company private.

It’s upstream biz will decline due to decreasing timber prices. It’s downstream biz is much smaller and should mitigate the negative situation a bit. Don’t look at past results as share market is forward looking.

What’s there to argue on classification of profits and losses of different items? They all flow down invariably to net assets aka shareholders’ fund, regardless. RM1.27 per share of net assets have left the company. It’s a huge net loss suffered by the company during the quarter.

Huge losses in comprehensive income.

Major shareholder is queuing everyday at 44.5sen to sell to you. A complete letdown to minority shareholders.

But the boss doesn’t want to give shareholders any meaningful dividend to keep them.

The company has RM120m net cash; take that out from the current market capitalisation, the company is selling for RM130m only. One-year depreciation charge is RM30m, which more than covers for all sorts of capex the company wants to do. So, the company can actually declare all its profits as dividend without affecting its net cash balance of RM120m. It should be able to make at least 3sen net profit per share a year. Potential dividend yield will be very attractive.

Those who bought based solely on crack are cracking now.

Profit after tax RM0.15 a quarter.

I remember OTB said months back that target price is RM1.20 or higher and AYS should fetch RM2. Time has provided us the answers to both.

Haha, sudah start to transfer money out of the company. Told you guys.

Only one executive director who is an accountant running the show. Bizarrely, there are 4 non-executive directors who hold quite big stakes in the company and given ESOS too though they were supposed to be independent.

Even substantial shareholders dare not accumulate, who are the outsiders to collect this seemingly undervalued company? Integrity, transparency, accountability and shareholder friendliness are valid concerns about this company.

The share price movements speak volume about the validity of my concerns stated earlier. Share price has grown detached from the company’s financials.

Excellent financials. But the biggest worries are management integrity, there being no obvious controlling shareholders and the risks of the company being stripped bare in the future.