Market crash maybe after EU stop printing money. When???? We have no answer yet but worth to have "RESERVE". Happen to me ( age at mid 30's ) 1997 - all saving hangus plus job plus hutang-hutang. Why? No nothing about market just hantam hantam only. Worst case contra and margin play. Then 2008/2009 ( age at mid 40's ) - still doing fine have some reserve and only invest in profitable companies. Now at early 50's ....learn, listen and experience counts...just enjoy the lifetime roller coaster ride!!!!
that is what warren buffet said also... something like "avoid losing big..."
he he sorry for me kirik karak buffetology. Not really familiar with the sage of omaha's sayings (even though certain concepts deeply ingrained in my mind)
Posted by rambutan > Mar 31, 2015 09:42 PM | Report Abuse
Thank you for all the long term charts. They are very useful. Are you going to do a part 3? For the new millennium?
Still writing. Two big memorable crashes in the new millennium.
However, people are more interested in which are the hot stocks, big boys buying what stocks, which companies getting big jobs here and abroad, which companies are involving big corporate moves etc.
Are you sure you are interested in market crashes?
Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 1, 2015 05:49 AM | Report Abuse
Posted by rambutan > Mar 31, 2015 09:42 PM | Report Abuse
Thank you for all the long term charts. They are very useful. Are you going to do a part 3? For the new millennium?
Still writing. Two big memorable crashes in the new millennium.
However, people are more interested in which are the hot stocks, big boys buying what stocks, which companies getting big jobs here and abroad, which companies are involving big corporate moves etc.
Are you sure you are interested in market crashes?
Good morning Mr Chong,
Do you see signs pointing to a 'crash' in the foreseeable future?
Posted by Jaack1 > Apr 1, 2015 09:02 AM | Report Abuse
Good morning Mr Chong,
Do you see signs pointing to a 'crash' in the foreseeable future?
Market is like a pendulum. It goes up but there is a maximum height it can go. Similarly it can go down but it will go up again. It is like the four seasons in the North and the South but don't think that there is always summer in Malaysia year long that you don't have to worry about the season comes season goes.
Over here when Autumn comes is predictable, but it is not the case of the stock market. I have to say I won't be able to predict when the market will rise or crash. If someone tells me when the crash will come exactly, I just laugh it off, because very few people has done that correctly and consistently well.
It is only our opinion of the market now. Is it at the stage of irrational exuberance? Is it too high now? Has it run up so high so fast? Isn't there nothing worthwhile to invest in now?
To me I tend to think the answers are all "No". Again I am just using the past as a guidance.
Again I could be wrong. Didn't I say market is unpredictable?
That was well said. In my opinion, we can't predict but we can prepare.
So, how should we manage the investment if the market is unpredictable?
Seth Klarman did provide us a good guideline - "A margin of safety is necessary because valuation is an imprecise art, the future is unpredictable, and investors are human and do make mistakes. It is adherence to the concept of a margin of safety that best distinguishes value investors from all others, who are not as concerned about loss."
And, "A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world."
And, what if the bear market really happen?
I suggest we can learn from Howard Marks - "There are two essential ingredients for profit in a declining market: you have to have a view on intrinsic value, and you have to hold that view strongly enough to be able to hang in and buy even as price declines suggest that you're wrong. Oh yes, there's a third; you have to be right."
At one extreme of the pendulum - the darkest of times - it takes analytical ability, objectivity, resolve, even imagination, to think things will ever get better. The few people who possess those qualities can make unusual profits with low risk...
And, we have to bear in mind that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We should invest only with the spare cash.
The stock market does provide good opportunities to build long term wealth as shown above. It can also be seen that some of the biggest gains in the market came in spurts and short periods of time. One can only profit from these opportunities if he is armed with the necessary knowledge and well prepared.
Markets cannot go up forever. Many severe market declines and crashes resulting heavy losses happened in just as fast and furious without any warnings and punish those who are ignorant.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
CCCL
621 posts
Posted by CCCL > 2015-03-29 09:39 | Report Abuse
Market crash maybe after EU stop printing money. When???? We have no answer yet but worth to have "RESERVE". Happen to me ( age at mid 30's ) 1997 - all saving hangus plus job plus hutang-hutang. Why? No nothing about market just hantam hantam only. Worst case contra and margin play. Then 2008/2009 ( age at mid 40's ) - still doing fine have some reserve and only invest in profitable companies. Now at early 50's ....learn, listen and experience counts...just enjoy the lifetime roller coaster ride!!!!