山雨欲来风满楼

RMB now 57sen. It will go to 60sen soon.
Invest in RMB dominated collectibles is equivalent to invest in RMB.
中國瓷器
大師國畫,墨宝
名家紫砂壺
勐海茶廠、下關茶廠改制前普洱茶
印级普洱茶

20140508 经济半小时 紫砂江湖 www.youtube.com/watch?v=pru-4-BTUOo
20140420 经济半小时 普洱疯抢老树茶 www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLvYEYYJ5FY
20141118 经济半小时 炙热的普洱茶 www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoX0n31eyV0

Ini orang ada gila sikit. Duduk abang punya rumah - free lah. Kalau sewa rumah satu ribu senang-senang. Mahu beli 130k punya kereta, betul orang gila punya fikiran.

Today no intervention from BNM, so ringgit 3.52 to a USD now. BNM loses getting bigger and bigger each day........
God save BNM........

Please help to save foreign exchange. Ringgit continues to go south. 3.52 to a USD now.

This is merely a game for syok-syok sendiri, some may just want to become famous if the warrant so picked hit jackpot. Nothing to lose, but whether any people will learn from their so call stock pick?

Mere suggestion to the organiser :-

1. Stock pick set at 10 counters
2. First 9 stock each stock around 10% in terms of value roundup to 100 share (Board lot). Tenth stock pick the balance to the last unit, disregard fraction of a unit share.
3. To state what is the expected return (10%, 15%, 20%, 50%, 100% etc)
4. To state what is the probability of achieving such a return.
5. Most likely return achieved will be % return multiply by probability.
eg Expecting 50% ROI, probability to achieve 50%, likelihood to succeed is 50% x 50% = 25%.
If expecting 25% ROI, probability to achieve is 90%, likelihood to succeed is 25% x90% = 22.5%

I believe this way forummer will benefit more if they have confidence in certain personality and prefer to use their stock pick rather than following stock pick by punters putting all bets in one or two warrant.

If want to buy property, wait till 2017/18 for property super sale.
2015 -- reduced price sale with household electrical/ air-con/ furniture/ free legal SP and loan/ stamp duty for loan
2016 -- further reduced price sale with more incentive (probably buy one get one car free)
2017 -- final reduced and close down sale
2018 -- fire and auction sale

Agree. Houses new launch are hard sell. How many SMS you receive everyday from the developers? Avoid those expanding aggressively last year buying up land here and there as if all land going to be snapped up overnight.
These counters should include Mah Sing, Ecoworld and those 半路出家 developers.

For commercial building, every million you have to foot out 60k GST. Do you think you can get 6% discount from the developer?
Worst still if you want to buy office building when tenant is hard to come by.

Furniture stocks are cyclic in nature. PE, ROI etc may seem good now because RM is going to depreciate further against USD. Share price of these counters are high relative to market. Who say SKPetro expensive @ 4.00 when oil price was above 100 USD?

Upside potential for furniture stocks is there, but by what percentage ?
What is the risk involved if market suddenly (or eventually) crash ?
Not to forget when market crash, bad share drop, good share also drop. The higher the share price, the harder it will drop. The most recent price appreciated, the earliest it will drop. All are relative.

Cyclic stocks are akin to growth stock. Potentially borrow more to cater for growth. Once business environment turn adverse, they will be the hardest hit.

Play safe, go for defensive stocks. What are the defensive stocks for Malaysian market, ask kcchongnz.
Is Bursa coming closer to serious market correction? Ask kcchongnz.

How many new IPO counters survive 5 years without being delisted ?
SC and Bursa suppose to safeguard investor from dubious accounting practices before listing, but they seem to fail.

Malaysia will never go bankrupt.
We can withstand 97/98 crisis, we should be able to do the same this time.
Only thing rakyat has to suffer will be super inflation perhaps up to 10% if :-
1. BNM raises interest rate.
2. Govt issues more MGS.
3. Minimum salary increase by 10%, and keep on increase by 10% a year.
4. EPF increases contribution rate to 18% for both employee and employer and step up to 20% each.
5. EPF increases investment in MGS.
6. Petronas sells foreign assets and bring back USD.
7. Reduce number of civil servants.
8. Reduce white elephant projects.
9. God bless Malaysia.

Hey! You are wrong. Gen-Y really make big fat salary. Look at the new condos, look at the Hondas and Toyotas. Gen-Y are the proud owners.
Are your children belong to Gen-Y? How much they earn? I believe they are earning much more than you now, even though you may be already near to your retirement age.

唇亡齿寒

Wait for fire sales 2017-18.

In agreement with calvintaneng's view.
Dividend 3sen, buy at 55sen gives DY 5.5%.
If buy at 50 sen, DY is 6%.
Never fail to pay dividend for past few years.
Value buy and it is a defensive stock.

Rental for Sg Wang will improve only after MRT is ready in 2017. Traffic too bad right now.

IOI City Mall in Putrajaya practically entice most residents from Putrajaya, Cyberjaya, Kajang, Sri Kembangan, Puchong South and nearby area. It is simply too good to resist. Why go to the Mines with ah pek appearance when you have a brand new first class mall nearby. Newly open less than a month and already near to 80% occupancy. Just pay a visit to appreciate it yourself.

I agree, Gurney Plaza is still ok. I purposely visited that place.

Don't trust them. Do you think their figure is right? They did only on big 4 REITs.
Do your own research.

Yes, I like retail REITs. But to invest in CMMT must have second thought.
Just go to Sungai Wang, what do you see?
Go to IOI City Mall in Putrajaya. What can you conclude?
Hektar is most resilient and consistently pay out at least 10.4sen DPU. This work out to have DY 7.2% based on 1.45 share price.

As for office REITs, try to avoid QCT as PS acquisation is not at arms length. If waiver for PAC not granted, or PS acquisation aborted, then QCT is a good buy.
Try to avoid any other office REITs because it will be getting harder and harder to find tenant.

Industrial REITs, best buy is still Atrium. No doubt Atrium Puchung is vacant right now, with able property manager, it will not be difficult to find tenant. Moreover,
DPU for Jan 2015 will remain at 2.2sen (net profit from disposal of Rawang factory). This give DY 7.7% based on 1.17 share price.

For multi-dimension REITs, best choice is ARReit. Silverbird factory fiasco should be over in Jan 2015 with court proceeding (unless High5 play dirty trick again). Wisma Amanahraya in Jalan Semantan (Now rename Wisma ELM) is now lease to SEGI College University. In no time DPU will go back to 8 sen per unit.

Caution! Be caution!! Be most caution !!!!
Don't trust MRCB will inject properties for new lease of life to QCT at arms length.
Properties injected will be very much inflated. I don't trust QCM as someone has vested interest in these type of transactions.

Hey!
The most squeezed are the pensioners lah.

Caution! Be Cautioned!! All Investors in SKPetro Be Most Cautioned!!!

This is a very important read... Probably the most important read that you would have for the rest of the year. If you look at the US charts, the slump has still got a long way to go with multi year growth cycles. Oil production in the US rose from 4.7m to 8.9m in 4-5 years. There is no market for light sweet crude.
In a way, uncle Sam has also bailed out Chinese demand and will drive down global inflation for years to come.
Run for the hills. The oil slump is here.

How Crude Oil’s Global Collapse Unfolded
Tracing the Plunge In Oil Prices Back to Texas
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tracing-oil-price-plunge-back-to-texas-1418404579

Please go to IOI City Mall in PutraJaya and Sungai Wang to assess for yourself before you decide at what price and when should you venture in CMMT.

Marginal oil field operators in Malaysia all gone case

-there will be blood-
Here Is A Simple Way Of Seeing Who Gets Screwed Most As Oil Tumbles

http://www.businessinsider.my/oil-cash-costs-2014-12/?utm_content=buffer97f42&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer#.VIpPYDGUcpk

How much risk you you can take?

Some people can stand up to 50% loses
Some people can only stand up to 20% loses
Some may be 10%, or 5%

It is really depends on your degree of tolerance. To lose 350k if doesn't affect your daily life, that is well within your tolerance level.

Again a word of caution. Don't commit 100% of your cash asset in share market. Always keep some for rainy days. Worse still if you try to buy on margin in this coming turbulence market.

Think safe, play safe, invest safe. If want to punt, punt safe.

RHB , CIMB and MBSB gone case tomorrow !!

RHB , CIMB and MBSB gone case tomorrow !!

RHB , CIMB and MBSB gone case tomorrow !!

Dec 3, 2014 04:11 PM | Report Abuse

Is it right time to buy now?
You have to learn it yourself. Practise make perfect. If you enter now and lose money, find out why. Everybody need to pay tuition fees.
What is knowledge, what is skill, what is peritus. Master all these will see you through comfortable golden age.

股票市場 易学难精

Dec 3, 2014 03:59 PM | Report Abuse

Buy good company cheap, I like it.
Good share doesn't come cheap. But when market crash, bad share drop, good share also drop. It is always when market crash that you can get good value for your money.

The problems are:-
1. How do you define good share? What are the criteria to qualify your good share?
2. How do you evaluate value of good share to form basis of buy cheap
3. How do you accumulate good share (buying strategy)
4. When is the best time to start buying (always remember lesson learnt during 97/98 crash)
5. Exit plan

Right now the most important thing to consider is the risk factor in investment cycle clock. I am of the opinion the peak is over. The market can only move south. It is safe and prudent to keep more cash or park your money in REITs to wait for opportunity.

Take further note:

1. Beware of creative accounting. PE can cheat, PL can cheat, BV can cheat, growth rate can also cheat. You know what I mean.

2. Must be comfortable with Director of company you intend to invest. Too many examples happened in Malaysia. Cheat once, he may cheat second, then third time and so on.

EPF outsource its funds to many fund managers. These fund managers do not bother whether the counters they buy in are syariah compliance or not. At the end of the days, fund managers are paid according to their performance.
Probably syariah compliance counters are the main consideration for Lembaga Tabung Haji. I doubt LTAT, PNB or Khazanah will have to work under syariah compliance frame work.

Which domino is to fall first? Russia, Venezuela, Argentina, Nigeria, Angola, Iraq, Libya? The massive LNG, pre salt and oil sands project economics just got smashed in terms of IRR and NPV. Even ultra deep projects are also suspicious at these current prices, which could linger for the next 5-6 years as a new normal.

Peak oil didn't see the magnitude of shale coming 8 years ago. No oil major did. Neither did CERA, IHS, WoodMac, OPEC. Now is probably a great time to be a physical trader with all the dislocations.

Typical example of self-enrichment at the expense of investor.
Is he still competent to manage icap?
Is he fit?
Is he proper fund manager?
Is it ethical for him to suck and keep on sucking icap investor?
If he is no more a fit and proper person to run icap, what should you do?

Correct. Patient..be patient.... be more patient....
Most important thing is self discipline. Buy to the extent you still can sleep soundly every night.

I am no promoter in share market. Buy when you see value, I have no particular counter except a vetted list after FA. When to buy will depends on TA. Be a wise man to grasp what ever opportunity.

勇者 创造机会
智者 把握机会
愚者 喪失机会
失敗者永遠沒有机会

Two sides to a coin for RM depreciation against major currencies including USD and RMB.

Good -- exporter sourcing raw material locally, eg timber, furniture, glove, palm oil etc.
More tourist from developed countries and China.

Neutral -- raw material are semi finished product sourced from oversea. Merely value-added, eg E&E. Outward bound tourism, consumer products raw material sourced locally and products are for local market only.

Bad -- Capital flight from Bonds and share market.
Cost of fund increased due to less demand for MGS.
Company borrowing in terms of USD and EURO.
Import-linked inflation.

What is the apparent effect on KLSE and Bond market?
The answer is already very clear.

To condemn a person is easy, but you need to show courage.
Need not create one new account just for this purpose.

To weicheong:-

心中有佛 處處是佛
存好心 做好事 说好话
做好事不如说好话
共勉之

Jim Rickards: World market crash 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le73sWDlhz4

Yes upsidedown119, I am the Way, the Truth, and Light, no one comes to Father but by me.
To meet upsidedown119, should have peace in mind. Sleep soundly at night as you have nothing now to fear.

If you are involve in share market, you already in hell.
How to go to Heaven, please ask upsidedown119 http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/upsidedown119.jsp

Is it right time to buy now?
You have to learn yourself. Practise make perfect. If you enter now and lose money, find out why. Everybody need to pay tuition fees.
What is knowledge, what is skill, what is peritus. Master this will see you through comfortable golden age.

股票市場 易学难精

## Buy good company cheap, I like it.
Good share doesn't come cheap. But when market crash, bad share drop, good share also drop. It is always when market crash that you can get good value for your money.

The problems are:-
1. How do you define good share? What are the criteria to qualify your good share?
2. How do you evaluate value of good share to form basis of buy cheap
3. How do you accumulate good share (buying strategy)
4. When is the best time to start buying (always remember lesson learnt during 97/98 crash)
5. Exit plan

Right now the most important thing to consider is the risk factor in investment cycle clock. I am of the opinion the peak is over. The market can only move south. It is safe and prudent to keep more cash or park your money in REITs to wait for opportunity.

Take further note:

1. Beware of creative accounting. PE can cheat, PL can cheat, BV can cheat, growth rate can also cheat. You know what I mean.

2. Must be comfortable with Director of company you intend to invest. Too many examples happened in Malaysia. Cheat once, he may cheat second, then third time and so on.

Nov 20, 2014 11:45 PM ##

USD is now 3.444 to RM, and fast approaching 3.5. Will it stop at 3.80?
I believe every foreign fund managers and hedge funds know very well USD going to strengthen further against ringgit.
SKPetro is not going to be the only one facing selling pressure. Now you will see one by one foreign fund favorite suffer same fate.

USD is now 3.44 to RM, and fast approaching 3.5. Will it stop at 3.80?
I believe every foreign fund managers and hedge funds know very well USD going to strengthen further against ringgit.
SKPetro is not going to be the only one facing selling pressure. Later you will see one by one foreign fund favorite will suffer same fate.

USD is now 3.38 to RM, and fast approaching 3.5. Will it stop at 3.80?
I believe every foreign fund managers and hedge funds know very well USD going to strengthen further against ringgit.
SKPetro is not going to be the only facing selling pressure. Later you will see one by one foreign fund favorite will suffer same fate.

In case you don't follow what has happened at the macro level, oil just got totally destroyed in 5 months. Go figure the impact to the national deficit and govt budget for the next one year, and how everything would be funded.

Light Sweet Crude (WTI) fall from USD109 in Jul to USD66 on saturday morning Malaysian time. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
Malaysia produces same grade of oil and export to Japan. Our budget is based on oil at USD 100.

Oil revenue down, less govt operating budget, less development budget, less capex.

What will happen to all the marginal oil field operators? According to Tan Sri Samsul SKPetro is one of them. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/11/29/No-more-marginal-oil-field-awards-for-now/?style=biz

Should take this golden opportunity to remove TTB as well.
Some body please make requisition for EGM. Get this insubordinate employee go fly kite !!!