RM4.50 ? What a joke

There will be a new price when IWH is listed to replace IWC and the price will be predetermined, unlike using WVAP. If the fair value of share swap is only RM1.50, I wonder how high can it go when IWH is officially listed

Something was already amiss last friday when the counter nearly limit up but reversing the trend before achieving it. Speculators had managed to offload part of their holdings already. The remaining will be planned for the next week or so to offload to those chasing-high- for-nothing

Why bother to hold at such a premium for such a long time until share swap when it can be easily bought after that at a discount? Unless you wanna specilate and gamble for short term hoping to sell to other people chasing high for nothing

Chasing AAX now is of no difference to punting !

Annjoo expansion plans are implemented 2018 onward.. completion of additional plant is even longer.. Too far ahead..

Iting Peng, then what is your valuation of this counter? Rm0.60 or Rm1?

While Petron and Shell counters are limited up after release of material announcement of quarterly performance

UMA is issued after 3.30pm and not during lunch time because traders are trying to limit up the counter right after lunch break without any material announcement.

To be exact, the counter has already been highly manipulated since at least 1 year ago. Although there might be a mini roller coaster ride along the way, I notice the fact that the price will be supported in accordance to its performance. At the moment, AAX is fully valued or maybe slightly over valued based on last quarter performance. Now waiting for next quarter to prove otherwise

pineapple123, which sentence in The Star's article mentioned that Geely PULLED OUT already? Did you see something that I don't?

To an extent, I do agree that not many or maybe not even one listed company in Bursa Malaysia priced at 40 cents that is able to generate as much as 100m profits other than AAX.

But we might miss out on the fact that AAX generates 100m profits out of a paid up share capital of 622m while IFCA's share cap is only 61m (9.8% of AAX share cap), Hibiscus at 14m (2.3%) and VIS with merely 11m (1.8%).

Having said that, EPS especially forward looking EPS still plays a major role in valuing the potential return of investment from the company and from this aspect, AAX may lead the race currently.

Coupled with a strong and effective management, I believe they are more than capable to churn out a profit of 200m in this coming 1Q2017.

The only question is, can this earning be sustained in 2nd and 3rd quarter?

Yes, for traders like JJchan definitely can make a lot of rounds of profit with the rollercoaster style. But it is a no-no for medium term investors at the moment with the medium term prospect of the company and aviation industry

Got some info previously: Seems that there is no new projects so far.. So there won't be any new stream of revenue

So little profit, how to declare dividend ? The company is in need of cash for expansion and to repay borrowing. Wait for another year or two at least

For the next 6 months, most probably will trade in the range of 0.35 - 0.44, unless 1Q2017 shows an EXTRAORDINARY result ! Hahaha

For revenue, there is a 50-50 chance 1Q2017 higher than 4Q2016. Depends on load factor and average fare eapcharged.

For forex loss, if usd rate on 31.03.17 is higher than 31.12.16, then yes. If lower, than is forex gain. This is quite reliable as majority of unrealised forex gain/loss is upon aax's usd loan.

Average oil price is indeed higher for 2017. Coupled with higher costs paid in usd, cost of sales will increase and affects gross profit margin.

So, it is about cost management now. Historical record suggests that promotional activities related to initial expansion plan will lead to lower average fare charged.

But for long term, perhaps 1 to 2 years later, it will start to reap stabil profit.

I guess LTH doesn't have much justified reasons to dispose Annjoo at the moment unless they plan to replace them with its higher growth potential peer Ssteel ! Hahaha

Since 2016 has passed and there are excuses that 4Q16 is unfairly compared to 4Q15 due to the forex losses, 1Q17 will be an important benchmark to gauge the performance prospect for the remaining of the year since there won't be any foreseeable forex losses.

If 1Q17 performance is better than 1Q16, then AAX should be continuing to improve in term of share price. But if it fails to better last year's peak performance with the current higher usd cost environment, then there are no more excuses.

AA fry and fly, AAX dry and die.. Have to keep waiting

Choo bee's performance is okay but not outstanding..

Retail investors are more interested in annjoo and ssteel now

For long term holders, good to buy in tomorrow when panic selling takes place. But expect to hold for the next 9 months

Just take the core operating profit of 100m which excludes forex loss, it is equivalent to a eps of 2.3 sen only. Annualised also is 9.2 sen only.. With current exchange rate of 4.4, aax will head to nowhere.. Come back when it improves to 4.0

hedging is used to cushion sudden unfavourable movement in exchange rate in a certain period. but if the unfavourable rate is maintained throughout the year, hedging is of no use and extra money need to be forked out to repay the usd loan

if this 0.9 sen eps maintained throughout the remaining year including the weak 2nd and 3rd quarter (forget about the negative), annualised eps is 3.6 sen x pe ratio 5, worth maybe 18 sen???

And 4th quarter which is the strongest quarter should be much much better than 2nd and 3rd quarter which are the weakest quarter

who said forex loss is purely accounting and not actual loss?

Why not hold longer a bit? Perhaps for another half day ? Might be rewarded for perseverance

If Annjoo can reach RM3, perhaps Ssteel can reach RM2.80

My call : 150 - 200m

Masteel previous quarter eps is only 0.51 sen. With an annualised forward eps of 2.04 sen and pe ratio of 10, the share is valued at RM0.204.

With an extrapolated current cumulative 3q eps of 7.02 sen, the annualised eps is 9.36 sen. With pe ratio of 10, the share is valued at RM0.936.

NTA is not a good indicator of share price valuation if the company is not subject to take over or liquidation.

Earnings capability is what a potential shareholder looks into a company for return on its investment.

Thanks Zai Zai for the useful info

If Ssteel is able to maintain the current EPS throughout the remaining 2 quarters, most probably the management will declare dividend at the end of the financial rear ending 30 june 2017.

A dividend paying company should be able to attract a pe of 10 and above.

Just look at annjoo is enough

But i suspect the operators will make one last attempt before release of results to fry up the price in order to unload aax

Hopefully, aax is not simply another value trap for the coming 1 year

For me, i wouldn't say aax will trend down lower, but i think the current price range of 0.38 - 0.42 has fully valued the performance of the company given the current circumstance.

Unless there is an exceptionally outstanding financial performance this time to open the eyes of the public.

Otherwise, the faster and higher it thrust upwards with no pure justification, the more painful when it crashes.

Yes, i shall wait for the release of results few days more. It is because a simply good result is not sufficient to justify a buy call.

It ought to be an excellent result (to be fair at least great operating profit pre forex losses) as we all know the forex rate has not improved thus far heading into 2nd half of the current 1st quarter.

Moreover, the historically much weaker 2nd and 3rd quarters are lurking around the corner.

I am definitely not buying this time.. Results 1st, talk later ! How about you ?

Depends on quarter eps

Otherwise the eps will only be around 4 - 5 cents.. too early for celebration

I doubt if choo bee can rise a lot on monday coz nearly half of the profit is due to other income - realised gain on forex at note B12

haha, who dares to bet with me that ssteel price will surpass choo bee over the next 3 - 6 months?

14 cents dividend is just to lure some over the fence holders.. otherwise the counter will experience free fall to 1.50 and below

How i hope ssteel still produces hrc, ssteel will achieve as high as 15 eps and above ! haha

Probability, i doubt if ssteel's product suits csc's raw material requirement

Do remember that eventhough cheap inventories of Ssteel is running out soon, same goes to the cheap imported inventories of Ssteel's customers which will most probably be depleted by around Feb - Mar 17. This is the time when they have no choice but to increase the local demand amidst the higher selling price environment..

Construction growth might grow at a slower pace but will NEVER stop growing. Means that DEMAND will always be there

Ssteel being under promise now to over achieve later is much better than CSC over promise previously to under achieve now.. hahaha!

Mycron is in similar product line of CSC, not Ssteel

Last quarter with write off of inventory already more than 4 cents.. Without write off is 7 cents plus..

This quarter impossible will be anything lower than 7 cents given the rise in selling prices