Simple because
1 - they don't know if their vaccine works. they skipped phase II trial, which would have found this answer using a small number of people.

2 - they need to know that the vaccine give protection for at least 1 year and not fade in 4 weeks. So trial must be at least 1 year.

3 - they need to master mass production of their vaccine. Their vaccine is new technology that has never been approve or used before. No idea how stable is Moderna mRNA vaccine or how to make the 15 billion doses that is needed to vaccine the human population (their vaccine requires at least 2 doses to work).

4- Maybe some red tape. Technically their vaccine genetically engineers human cells too produce viral proteins. Which the immune system then attacks. AS can be imagine... there might be some side effect (immune system killing your cells and continues that killing) and perhaps legal concern extremely low probability side effects.

Posted by wehcant > Jul 15, 2020 2:51 PM | Report Abuse
Moderna said the final phase will run until October 27, 2022. DAMN, why must they take so long to market the vaccine.

Trial is to find out if vaccine works. So don't know if works or not.
Trial will be completed 27 October 2022.

So Moderna vaccine will be out no earlier than November 2022. Two years from now.

I think you have some time to at least collect September 2020 Dividend, June 2021 Dividend and maybe September 2021 dividend before you sell.

Posted by tarmizixx > Jul 15, 2020 2:46 PM | Report Abuse
Vaccine has been found. SELL! SELL! SELL!
https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/07/608654/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-enters-final-stage-trial-month

Answer is simple, go look at the inside of US hospital and go see if the refrigerator trucks (to store bodies) in their parking lot. If you see doctors that look like they are about to die out from exhaustion and lots of heavy orange biohazard bags... certain to reach 30.

Posted by hotmission > Jul 15, 2020 1:59 PM | Report Abuse
from 18 to 14, you hold and you get 25.
now, from 25 to 18, you hold and get 30 or 0?
HOOT

Still here. Still holding. If 30 not today, then September 2020, when the QR comes. As long as the Covid19 pandemic continues, I have confidence. The Covid19 virus is the not the stock market, it is easy to predict.

Posted by BN_better > Jul 15, 2020 12:11 PM | Report Abuse
30 RM TP who say 1? Where are they today?

yeah but typical vaccine takes 5-10 years to develop. Even with cutting corners, no mistakes and perfection, it will take at least 12-18 months. Most work on vaccine started in March. So no sooner than early 2021. But realistically after 2022.

2019 H1N1 influenza pandemic took 2 years to control.
1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic took 3 years to subside.


Posted by gamblegod > Jul 15, 2020 11:10 AM | Report Abuse
Gloves, masks and sanitizer all these are temporary solution only! And can't even solve covid problem. The Real King is vaccine! Vaccine come everything solve and back to normal 2019. Can get profit sell lah!

I think it is too late for today. Maybe tomorrow. We can hope that somebody, somewhere will sell TG share for RM20.

I hope it just Bond Conversion, and selling. They got their bond for ~RM6.1 in 2019, so selling at RM20 is profitable.

I just hope it isn't some Uncle or Aunty who doesn't know what they are doing with their pension money and panic selling. Just hold. At most it will be a month, them numbers will recover. Just like in 2 weeks in June.

Posted by Stockwiser > Jul 15, 2020 11:02 AM | Report Abuse
Come on, waiting u at RM20

https://www.todayonline.com/world/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-enters-final-stage-trial-month

A bit misleading. Moderna has not done a phase II trial yet. They refer to the phase I results, which have not been fully released yet so other scientist can look over this data. Moreover, a phase II trial will tell you if the vaccine works or not. A phase I trial just tells you if the vaccine is safe to take or will it kill you (there have been unfortunate incidences before).

If they had done a Phase II trial they would know their vaccine works and be dependent on Phase III to find this out. And the Phase III trial would be to detect uncommon side effects.

What this is, is a phase II/III. They confident in their vaccine and are betting big. If vaccine works, they skill phase II trial (which takes at least 1 year) and if the vaccine doesn't work, a lot 10-20 thousand people will probably get covid19.

The problem is for their vaccine to work you need to take 2 doses, 28 days apart. However the antibody level is only 50% of what people have when they beat Covid19. Is 50%

And finally people, the moderna phase II/III trial will end Oct 27, 2022. Even if moderna vaccine works, we have 2 years of good profits.

Yeah, I got some.
This is all crazy. People are sell on what? News that Moderna hasn't even completely release its phase I results.

Posted by yttihs > Jul 15, 2020 9:39 AM | Report Abuse
I managed to top up...you pBlue? Got top up?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-14/moderna-vaccine-produced-antibodies-in-all-patients-tested?srnd=premium-asia

Stated within same article

"The neutralizing antibody levels in the trial produced were equivalent to the upper half of what’s seen in patients who get infected with the virus and recover, according to the results published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

While stimulating production of neutralizing antibodies doesn’t prove a vaccine will be effective,"

Moderna's vaccine is not a done deal yet.

In fact, it possible that the Moderna's vaccine produces a weak and ineffective immune response, since the serum antibody level is only 50% of people who were able to fight off the virus. 50% maybe as good as 100% or it may not be enough, and might as well be 0% as the virus overwhelms the body.

Also SARS-Cov2 attacks the lungs first, which needs protection of IgA antibodies. The antibodies moderna is testing for is blood antibodies IgG. Different class.

We need to see Phase II data to show that the Mordena vaccine actually is protective against the SARS-Cov2 virus.

Damn, just missed it. Trying to be too smart and position myself to collect too low.

Well guys, just remember this on Monday morning 13/7/2020, Topglove opened at RM22.50. Today, Tuesday, 14/7/2020, 5pm, Topglove closed at RM23.16. The last time TG closed in the red was last Tuesday 7/7/2020.

Might be a bit late, but don't jump simply because we experience one red day and we lost the growth of ~2 days. We are still 66sen higher than where we were at 9am Monday.


Posted by ahbah > Jul 14, 2020 10:34 PM | Report Abuse
[TG RM2] Is that possible?” explained a warrant specialist.

Only if Trump decided to attack China and pointed at Malaysia because his grade geography in school was 'F'. TopGlove lowest price was RM4.21, with terrible dividend of 7.5 sen for the entire year.

I think this is the news that triggered the selling panic attack
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-covid-19-vaccine-program-to-start-manufacturing-by-late-summer--says-us-official-12929270

Unnamed senior administration official claims [Covid19] vaccine will in production within 4-6 weeks.

There are a few problems with this news. For something so important, nobody, not even the US president wants to announce this development. Next, who developed this vaccine and who is producing it? Again nobody.. although there was a trick to give the impression that it was one of several major US pharmacological companies. However we already know what these companies are up to, at least as far as the trial phases of their vaccine and nobody is even near completed a phase II or phase III human trial. You can't hide a human trial from the NIH in the US, especially a phase III trial that will have thousands of people.

I have a feeling, Trump is leaking fake news to calm the US population that is becoming increasingly worried about the Covid19 pandemic and critical of him. By throwing this out, the airwaves will fill with debate about this supposed vaccine, and so shift the news interest away from him, at least for a moment. This gives him a breather so he can formulate a new plan.

Super buying opportunity

Bonds issued by company to raise money that can either be paid back in cash over a period of 5 yrs or exchanged for company shares.

Posted by stevenckheng > Jul 14, 2020 1:22 PM | Report Abuse
what is this 5 years exchangeable bond?

Hi, you need to answer a few questions

How valuable is RM5K to you? Can you lose it and not terjun?
How long can you keep rm5K in topgolve? Can you tahan till September or even into 2Q2021?
If Topglove fell to RM22.50 for 2 weeks, will you panic and sell?

Here are some somethings you need to know
1 - If you buy 2 lots of Topglove @ RM25 (rm5K), you cannot sell it any less than RM25.16. If you sell at RM25.16, you make zero profit. You must sell above RM25.15 to make something reasonable, selling at RM26 per share will get you RM168.98

2- Topglove is going up, but it does so in a very volatile manner. Yesterday day when up RM2.6 from 22.9 to 24.5, then immediate lost RM1 to fall to 23.5, then rose to RM24. Imagine if you both at RM24.5, it is now only RM25, can you wait? Would you panic?


Posted by divar21003 > Jul 14, 2020 1:44 PM | Report Abuse
hi if i have rm5k should I get 2 lot of Topglove
or invest in other counter for better/higher return

Not soon.
I estimate that 133.5 million bonds were issued in 2019. RM814.1 worth of bonds issued @ RM6.1
Of that 31.2 million have been converted to shares, mostly in June.
So I estimate another 102.3 million more bonds to go.

However don't be angry with TG, this bond conversion will mean that TG will be free of long term liability. Improving its balance sheets.

https://www.topglove.com/App_ClientFile/7ff8cb3f-fbf6-42e7-81da-6db6a0ab2ef4/WebEvent/UploadItem/EventDocument/b2c1f2b4-d403-4163-a9b1-36a79c160ee0_en.pdf

Climbing 50-60 sen to 24.50 is not losing
If today not 25, probably tomorrow.

And now it is 24.70

Posted by goreng_kaki > Jul 14, 2020 10:27 AM | Report Abuse
today topglove turn to loser already

We don't need optimism. We just need Covid19 and Trump.

Posted by CatchThe Bull > Jul 14, 2020 10:06 AM | Report Abuse
Beware of Over-Optimistic. Happy investing :)

Huh... reached 25... but did not stay. So 25 by the end of the week? Looks like 30 is not a dream.

Well TG will be increasing its production capacity from 73.8 to 78.8 billion gloves by the 4Q of FY2020. By the end of 2021 TG glove production capacity will reach 100 billion gloves.

Also demand for glove is so very high that prices of gloves has increased by 3x with signs now it is on its way to reaching 4x-5x. Ie production can stay the same but sale prices will increase.

Estimated profits are thus high. Some IB have TP of RM30 and RM32

Also TG has been reducing its long term debt. So with more cash on hand, TG could acquire smaller glove companies and take over their production lines.

And finally, RM had devalued a bit. So ringgit can buy less. TG sells it stuff abroad, and is traded in Singapore too. So rather than think RM24, think USD5.62 Facebook cost USD246 per share. Isn't a share price of USD5.6 okay for the biggest glove company in the world, especially when the demand for gloves is so hot that at times even more money can't get you a supply.

Posted by TomyamGong > Jul 14, 2020 1:09 AM | Report Abuse
secure more order with same numbers of production place and machine? i wonder how are they going to produce more gloves in short period of time? does Topglove really worth at RM24 ?

TG at mount 24.

Still another 4 more days to climb 25. After that 30.

And in other news India has finally beaten Brazil to take second place on the Covid19 cup. US still maintains a comfortable lead of 2x more than India. But it is only a matter of time before India become Corona cup champion, a position that was once held by Italy, Spain and China.

I hope not.
It would be horrible if people are getting call warrant and put warrants mixed up.

Posted by yttihs > Jul 13, 2020 3:02 PM | Report Abuse
If some uncle see everyday green, withdraw EPF and buy put warrant...I pity them. Seriously.

Congrats. 1st mil?
Posted by OngKawKaw > Jul 13, 2020 11:01 AM | Report Abuse
1mil in my pocket. Thanks TG&SM. Waiting for another team HT&KS

TG would probably reach RM50-RM60.

Not sure if that is a good future. We are probably talking a massive outbreak in India.

Posted by Big3 > Jul 13, 2020 10:49 AM | Report Abuse
If Supermax can reach rm20. TG?

Just had a bizarre idea. If the situation in the US becomes very severe, the US may consider gloves a strategic resource. And the biggest producer of gloves in the world is TG. The US gov then goes to Tan Sri Dr Lim, and say

America: "Hey you Chinaman, I want your company and its factories. Sell it to us, now."

Tan Sri: "Sorry, my-lah company is not for... err... what do you have in mind."

America: "I pay you $15 billion. 3x what you are worth"

Note the US Fed has already expended close to $10 trillion in various attempts to keep their economy going. And as the Fed can make US dollars, printing $15,000,000,000 is as simple as this, numbers on a keyboard.

So reach RM24.22 before retracting. It seems mount 25 can be reach this week. RM30 maybe possible by the end of the month.

Because no doctor, nurse or lab worker will be willing to work in the hospital or lab without gloves. And no nation with a Covid19 pandemic on their hands will allow their hospitals to close down.

So they must have gloves and it will be obtained any way possible. As America showed with N95 mask, if they can't get it by paying more money, they will steal it even from their allies like Germany.

If Malaysia were to suddenly tell America we can't sell you more and America can't get gloves anywhere else, do not be surprised if an American carrier group comes to Malaysia and 'helps' us solve our production problems.

Posted by greedy44444 > Jul 13, 2020 8:10 AM | Report Abuse
So where got stupid customers want to wait so long to get their gloves. The urgency to use the glove is now not two years late

yeah... I will wait till TP 35-39. I suspect TG nett profits for next QR will be around 794 million. EPS ~30.7, 16sen dividend.

Lets see if my numbers pan out.

Assumption: virus continues to grow at current rate and TG market share remains constant.

Posted by BASforce > Jul 12, 2020 8:27 PM | Report Abuse
when the price reach 17, people's told me sell now... 18 sell now... 19 sell now... 20 sell now.. kakakaka~

You can thank Trump and other idiot world leader like him. The virus is going out of control, and spreading exponentially. 1 week ago US had 36K cases a day. Today it has 72K cases a day. 1 week from now the US will have 140K Covid19 cases a day.

So demand for gloves increase to match. Profits also increases exponentially, even if production cannot keep up. People will pay more so that they can be first in the line to buy. And trust me, people will pay especially the hospitals, which are heavily contaminated environments.

What do you call a bubble that is driven by solid fundamentals and profit?

Posted by PresidentRotiCanai > Jul 12, 2020 10:23 PM | Report Abuse
Everyday shout topglove undervalue although price shoot up everyday. Bo sienz meh. Hahaahahah

I hope not. I mean it would be super profitable for glove and mask industry to have a second pandemic. But I don't think we can take another virus. Hope it is just Covid19 and it is being misdiagnosed due to inadequate equipment.

Posted by Big3 > Jul 11, 2020 7:35 PM | Report Abuse
Potential new virus

Most analysis are not epidemiologist or biologist and have little understanding of what a threat SARS-Cov2 is and how fast this virus can grow.

As long as SARS-Cov2 remains uncontrolled, we glove investors have no fear. Gloves prices is growing exponentially however so is Covid19.

1 week ago US had 50K Covid19 cases per day, 1 week later it is up 72K cases per day. Virus is doubling every 14 days in the US. 327 million people in the US

3 week ago India had 14K cases a day, 3 weeks later it is 28K. Virus is doubling every 3 weeks in India. 1350 million people in India

And while these doubling speed looks high, it is nothing compared to how fast the virus was spreading earlier in March and April. At that time the virus was doubling in size every 3 days.

The demand of gloves by the medical sector will expend as the number of people who are infected increases. Demand by business will increase as they seek to reopen and remain open. Application of disinfectants on a regular basis is very hash on the human skin requiring gloves.

The Super bull run is backed by a solid exponentially growing demand.


Posted by jungleboy > Jul 11, 2020 11:56 AM | Report Abuse
many analysts and thoughts are concern on possible glove "bubbles" created with the superbull run
f glovexso

My vote is the mother stock. Buy keep and hold. All you need to know is fundamentals of the company (aka how good the company is). It is easier to understand. All you need to do is find out if the company is good or not. Bonus if you can find out if the company is a good buy at this price. If you make a mistake on the price, so long as the company is good, you can wait until the company increase in price.

Warrants need knowledge of fundamentals and technical (how people feel about the company). Warrants also have a time factor, they expire after a set period of time. Hold too long because the shares take to long to grow and you lose. Also their price movement is larger than the mother share. So your profits are magnified but so are your loses.

Recovery from a lost is difficult as you now have less money to make back the money you lost. ie you start at RM100, if you lose 50%, you how have RM50. To make back to RM100, you have to make 100% profit, not just 50% profit. (First rule of investing, don't lose money. Better to miss big profit than to hit big losses)

So while warrants can make you alot of money, warrants can be very dangerous to beginners.

Take me for example. I knew gloves should go up from the moment China closed down Wuhan. So I bought my glove position way back in January. And the pandemic did grow. It grew out of control in the US in March and April. However gloves prices only started to shoot up in May.

If I had purchased warrants, my warrants could have expired before the underlining mother share started growing. New warrants usually have a 6 month life span. So even though my call was right, my timing was wrong (far too early) and I may have actually ended up losing money while holding expire warrants.

So, I would avoid warrants until you feel you are expert.


Posted by Havoc27 > Jul 10, 2020 2:17 PM | Report Abuse
i am a newbie here. can someone tell me y one should consider buying top glove's main mother stock when the warrants are still cheap? i hope i get reply. thanks in advance.

Not so fast. TP 25 first then TP30.
And if US reelectes Trump on November 2020 or India fails to control Covid19, then everyone is stupid and sky is the limit. TP45 might actually happen.

Posted by divar21003 > Jul 10, 2020 10:24 AM | Report Abuse
tp22 done. next tp30

Yes, yesterday (Thursday) morning. Deposited into Maybank account.

Posted by DinDin01 > Jul 10, 2020 11:00 AM | Report Abuse
Did anyone received Dividen?

Touched 22. But sliding down. I guess, if anyone wants to get onto this train, best come in on the dips.

Lets see if TG will climb mount 25 next week. TG will continue to climb so long as global Covid19 cases number continue to climb.

More trouble in US.

More than than one-fourth of the states have less than a 30-day supply of PPE.
https://www.concordmonitor.com/Protective-gear-for-medical-workers-begins-to-run-low-again-35129793

US vice president mike pence has asked medical staff to reuse PPE.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/u-s-to-advise-health-care-workers-to-reuse-ppe-says-pence

LOL That is a bit much. Sure you can make alot of money, but how long can you live without a house and internet connection? You might end up rich but dead due to Covid19.

Posted by gtokevin > Jul 9, 2020 5:53 PM | Report Abuse
im going to sell my house for top glove stock. i already bought some boxes and news paper.

And unlike Tesla, TopGlove actually shows a profit and pays dividends. Tesla has like 3 profitable quarters in the past decade. It survives because its investors have deep pockets.

Posted by Davedeli > Jul 9, 2020 5:01 PM | Report Abuse
US got Tesla, Malaysia got Top Glove xD

If tp is 200, we have zombie outbreak. Although with that said, new cases of Covid19 in US is now 62K a day, we are very close to that.

Posted by gtokevin > Jul 9, 2020 4:31 PM | Report Abuse
tp 200 here we go

You should look at how the bank stock performed in 2009 and 1997. Their strength is not that they can keep their value in a storm, it is their ability to bounce back after that recession. And that is linked to the performance of the Malaysian economy.

Cimb can go down to RM2 and Maybank to RM3.59. As with anything, you need financial holding power and confidence that Malaysia and the bank will make it through the recession.

Posted by Lanesra > Jul 9, 2020 4:13 PM | Report Abuse
yes, thats why companies like this are more likely to attract foreign investment. i am still holding a few bank stocks at the moment. no matter what banks are always the rock against the storm

There is that. But I like the small timer feel. At RM5 just about any investor can buy. Big or small. But at RM50, very few. Price is more stable.. But it feels like nobody is buy or selling.

About time. The TG elephant has been lazy all morning.

Sell and go where?
If you zero out this portion of your portfolio you better be willing to see loses for the next 18 months because we are in a global recession. the glove sector is about the only thing green in malaysia. Come October and you will see the banking sector bathed in red.

Posted by raviem > Jul 9, 2020 12:39 PM | Report Abuse
My friend work in top glove as a accountant he confirm got windfall tax better sell now

I have received my dividend. I am guessing it is your bank which is slow to crediting into your account. Probably see it in your account by tomorrow. Some banks are slower than others.

Aww... so sad. I was waiting at 50c.

It is expected. Airlines are very cyclic. Happens every recession, although not as bad as this situation. If you buy now, and AA survives the next year, you can easily see AA share prices go back to RM3 by 2023, and will have less competition too as all the smaller budget airlines would have gone bust. But if AA falters and goes bankrupt, you lose everything.

Golden opportunity or deadly poison....

Posted by air01557 > Jul 8, 2020 11:38 AM | Report Abuse
This is a SINKING SHIP, better go back to BATTLESHIPS hmmm

Stupidly late.
China and MIT already demonstrated in April and May respectively that the virus does spread further than 6 feet. At least 15 feet by China and upto 27 feet according to MIT. Slow very slow... smells like politics getting in the way of science.

Posted by aarontan1987 > Jul 8, 2020 10:41 AM | Report Abuse
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-airborne/who...

unleash the kraken bois. 30 easy game

BURSA has suspended the counter. Not sure what you mean by donation. Nothing that happens here donates to AA.

Posted by DannyArcher > Jul 8, 2020 10:04 AM | Report Abuse
WTF is going on, the best Buy is 0.9 and the Best Sell is 0.6
the counter is not moving.... somebody, make it move

A fact of Malaysian stock market, it is illiquid as vast majority of stocks are held by institutional investors. Major movement only occurs when institutional investors move. The Malaysia retail investor has not much money.

So long as institutional investors do not move, nothing major will change.

Posted by DannyArcher > Jul 7, 2020 12:50 PM | Report Abuse
i am surprised AA is still not 50 cent.

If Airasia needs money, Tony can sell shares. i will buy then. Right now, all that is happening is retail exchanging shares with each other. None of the action actually helps Airasia raise money.