Pfizer vaccine
Covid infections after first dose, before second dose
39 vaccinate : 82 placebo.

Covid infections after second dose
11 vaccinate : 193 placebo.

A single dose is mildly protective. As the second dose is give 21 days after the first dose, there is a window where a vaccinated person is still vulnerable to the virus.

But here is something interest. 622 people were excluded from the Pfizer study after second dose of the vaccine due to important but unspecified protocol deviations. In the placebo group only 121 people were excluded for the same reason.

The 5x difference in number between the vaccine and placebo group rises questions. What are these protocol deviation and it seems link the vaccination. This exclusion group is larger than the number of people infected by Covid19 or even dropped out of the trial.

If anyone can get hold the actual pfizer report to the FDA, I would like to read it. Thanks.

https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

JPMorgan to pay $920 million for manipulating precious metals, treasury market (September 30, 2020).

https://www.reuters.com/article/jp-morgan-spoofing-penalty/jpmorgan-to-pay-920-million-for-manipulating-precious-metals-treasury-market-idINKBN26K325

Yes... I have seen that chart and I call it BS.

I have actually looked at that chart on a single day and found it calling all trade as retail investor when I was seeing a quarter of all Tg trades are in volumes of 199-999 lots. Tell me what kind of retail investor is able to buy or sell 500 lots of TG shares at a time.

I believe that chart is not working correctly.



Posted by DannyArcher > Dec 15, 2020 1:15 AM | Report Abuse

I bet most of you guys dont even know how to read charts, most are newbie, just started investing and think got some invisible hands manipulating the market. Here is a simple chart for you guys to read:

https://ibb.co/wB0W954

The blue circled chart.
Green is retail investor like you
Yellow is traders, buy and sell quickly type
Red is institutional investor like banks and funds.

Most institutional investors started leaving since september. Without them, the price cannot go up, they already cash out long ago.

@observatory makes an interesting point.

So I decided to look at the long term. In the long term, dividends is all we really care about, how much money we can get by holding onto a stock.

So lets imagine we purchased 1 share of a company 10 years ago.

If we had purchased 1 share of Maybank 10 years ago, we would have accumulated a total of RM6.22 in dividends and have a total of 1 share.

If we purchased 1 share of Topglove, 10 year ago, we would have accumulated a total of RM11.20 in dividends and that 1 share would have become 24 after multiple rounds of share splits.

While past performance is no indicator of future performance, we do have these numbers after 10 years of business. And it was quite surprising even to myself.

Everyone is saying that glove holders should exit because the 2019 SARS-Cov2 pandemic will eventually end, and that we should look at the long term.

Well, here is a 10 year view of Topglove compared to Maybank.

From these numbers, we would predict that a RM6.30 share of TG would pay for itself a lot faster than a RM8.90 share of Maybank.

You have several options

1 - hold the share and hope the share price recovers.
2 - sell and take the lost
3 - buy more and cost average down.
4 - Sell and attempt to buy at a lower price.

Option 1: The upside of option 1 is that TG is paying high dividends and will do so for most of 2021 and may continue to do in 2022. Outside the super demand, TG is in a relatively safe field. The demand of gloves is constant, and for the most part boring. It has been a rising demand as developed world population ages and needs more medical care, and in developing nation the population is increasingly more aware of the need for hygiene. Topglove makes 1/3 of all the gloves in the World.

The down side is your money is trapped in Topglove shares and topglove share may fall further... although it is unlikely at this time point.

Option 2; The upside is that you get some money back that you may invested elsewhere. The downside is that you make an immediate lost on your investment. My feeling is that given gloves is red hot, with profits that are all but certain even in a pandemic and economic recession from now till 2022, you might not be able to do any better. But then again you could bet that recovery stock is the way to go. However best to avoid banking stock as they are now at pre-covid and even pre-recession prices.


Option 3. The upside, is that you obtain more shares at a lower cost, reducing the average cost of your shares. If enough cost averaging is done, you may even sell at RM9.xx at a profit. Down side, you lock even more money into topglove, and should topglove fall there will be even more pain.

Option 4. Upside is that you can cost average your shares without increasing the the amount of money locked up within the shares. Downside, should the share prices rise, rather than fall, you will make a lost.


So what to do now?
Only you can answer that. Your answer depends on how confident you are in Topglove as a company. What you think will happen to TG profit for the next coming years. How long you are willing to wait before realizing profits. And how much risk you are willing to take and how much loses you can tolerate.

Currently Topglove will continue to make super profit until the end of FY21Q4. That is more or less a certainty given estimate vaccine production, dosing regime and the assumption that all vaccines in development will work, they are all safe to use and everyone can and will take them. Finally the Covid19 virus will not mutate and escape the vaccine. What happens in FY22Q1 will depend on how true these optimistic assumption are.

AS for moving to recovery stocks, they have to recover from both the Covid19 pandemic and the economic problems that triggered the December 2018 and March 2020 global plunges. China and the US remain in a trade war.

Again, I cannot see what will happen here. You will have to decided if rotating out of gloves into recovery stocks is something that you are willing to do. It might be right, or it might be wrong.

I have my own option.

Posted by 2kHunter > Dec 14, 2020 5:13 PM | Report Abuse
Unrealized loss a lot due to average down every 50sen since rm9.xx anyone can teach me what to do now? :(

how can you invest in recovery stocks when the company has not recovered and the pandemic is still there. Malaysia will only get enough vaccine for 20% of the population in 2021. The US will only start mass vaccination in Late June.

Do you intend to hold recovery stock for 1-2 years while you wait for the company to recover? And if you can wait 1-2 years. You can wait wait 3-4 years for the next outbreak.

ANd by the way... how high do you think Maybank can go? RM9 is pretty much full recovery, pre covid and pre recession. The highest Maybank has gone in the past 5 years was RM10.82 in May 2018.

The JP morgan report has at least one lie in it, ie That Testing for covid19 in is decreasing. That is a lie and can be checked on John Hopkins website and other sites. The number of Covid19 test per month is rising.

JP morgan is big, giant wall street investment bank... so people feel JP morgan knows better but it is also a predator of retailers and has been caught by the US government as market manipulator. They were just recently fined USD 1bn.

So they know better but what they say to us cannot be trusted.


Posted by Roy 8 > Dec 14, 2020 3:37 PM | Report Abuse

Truly disappointed! Just one analyst JB Morgan poor assessment report on glove sector can create such a havoc on the share prices in companies in the same sector. Don't people value other analysts more positive reviews. Could it be a misleading report?

Call warrants are a product sold by investment houses.

Call warrants have an excision price, excision ratio and an expiration date. Say a call warrant has an excision price of RM10, excision ratio of 5 and an expiration date of 1 Jan 2021

So the mother share has to be higher than RM10 on Jan 1 2021 before investment house pays you money. ie the warrant expires in the money.

Say the mother share ABC is RM11. If you hold 1 warrant, you will be paid (Mother share price - excision price) / excision ratio = ( RM11 - RM10 )/5 = RM0.20

What price you bough the warrant is upto you. If you paid RM0.50 for the warrant you have made a lost. If you paid RM0.10 for the warrant you are have made a profit.

So how do investment house make money?
Well they make a prediction on what the price of the mother share will be on a certain date. Then set the price higher so it is unlikely that the warrant will expire in the money and thus pay nothing to the warrant holders.

Warrant holders buy warrants because they think the investment house has made an error in their predictors or that they can sell their warrants at a higher price to another person before the warrant expires.

It becomes a problem for the investment houses if they made a wrong prediction as what has happened with the glove sector. Too many warrants expired in the money as the glove share prices shot up. SO they have to do something. Either bring down the mother share on the expiration date, buy mother share and warrants cheaply during plunges or a combination of both.

And so far we have seen multiple -20% plunges and the share price magically falls just before expiration date of warrants expiring very deeply in the money.



Posted by darkfire2313 > Dec 14, 2020 12:34 PM | Report Abuse
Can someone please explain to me the basics of call warrants? My understanding is that as long as the share price is higher than the exercise price that would be good for whoever purchased the warrant, no?

Oh and JP Morgan also called bitcoin a fraud and then bought in during the resulting dip.

So is this a repeat of history? JPMorgan calling TG garbage then buying in during the dip.

https://news.bitcoin.com/after-the-boss-calls-bitcoin-a-fraud-jp-morgan-buys-the-dip/

Not every month will SW expire in the money by significant amount. Most of the time it will expire out of the money or just in the money.

By Feb, the number of CW expiring in the money will greatly decrease, reaching near zero by April.

Posted by EdwinYap86 > Dec 14, 2020 11:32 AM | Report Abuse

Every month also will got SW expired

don't be blind conspiracy theorist

the truth is IB don't need conspitacy to win your duit haha

JP Morgan is a wall street investment bank and corporate raider. They were recently (September 2020) fined nearly USD 1 billion by the US government for market manipulation between 2008 to 2016.

And today Jp Morgan has come visiting Topglove with a TP at RM3.50, even though TG has just announced a 16.5sen dividend in just 1 quarter.

https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/84292/jpmorgan-chase-fined-920-million-for-market-manipulation

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/jpmorgan-to-pay-almost-1-billion-fine-to-resolve-us-investigation-into-trading-practices.html

Posted by LRWoo99 > Dec 14, 2020 11:43 AM | Report Abuse
May i know who is JP morgon .. i am new here

This is what happens when you are in a pandemic. People die. Doctors have died, US politicians have died, old pensioners have died and even a few children, some just months old. The only way to be safe is 100% isolation. But I don't think many people can survive that.

So what do you suggest to buy?

Posted by EdwinYap86 > Dec 14, 2020 11:02 AM | Report Abuse
Don't be stupid mislead. Newbie la.
IB won't and never will buy back

New Hampshire House speaker, Republican Dick Hinch dies of Covid19 just one week after attending an outdoor ceremony where he was sworn in.

What do you think a pandemic means? We have had doctors and nurses die from Covid19. Even US president Trump got infected. So yes. Topglove cannot protect all its staff from Covid19. And neither can the US secret service protect even one man, the US president. It is sad that a man who worked for TG has died, but already 1.6 million people have died so far and every day another 11 thousand more people die from Covid19.

Why do you think doctors and nurses wear gloves around all the many people they see every day... just for fun?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/exposure-feared-hampshire-speaker-dies-covid-19-74659280

Generally not. But it has happened before. Humans host many retroviruses in our genomes as endogenous parasites. And these retroviruses do code for reverse transcriptase which can copy an mRNA into a DNA molecule, which can sometime accidentally get integrated into the host genome.

Beside any cell that expresses the spike protein coded by the mRNA molecule will be killed by the immune system, this is why the mRNA vaccine have such high side effects compared to other vaccines.

Posted by Aurora13 > Dec 13, 2020 8:03 PM | Report Abuse

But one fact, mRNA will not combine with human DNA, it is two different biochemical molecules. The mrna will only get the protein synthesise in the body only, and is actually safer than conventional vsccines

I agree with you but you are being too generous to Pfizer. Half of its volunteers taking the pfizer vaccine have had the full vaccine for 1 month. The other half has only been fully vaccinated for 2 month. That is how long the pfizer vaccine has been tested for... an average of 1.5 month.

If the immune response fails early, or there is ADE (like dengue, SARS or MERS.. where antibodies that do not inactivate the virus actually make the infection worse ) or if there are side effect like in 2009 H1N1 pandemrix vaccine (9/1000 people vaccinated develop narcolepsy) it would not have been detected because the it is too early and number of people infected too small.

Posted by themeg > Dec 13, 2020 12:20 AM | Report Abuse

JP morgan admits to US market manipulation

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/29/jpmorgan-chase-admits-spoofing-us-market-manipulation-pay-920m

The last time Maybank was trading this high was in May 2018
The last time CIMB was trading this high was in March 2020

So we are now now pre pandemic - even pre-recession prices.

Can banking stock really climb any higher?

Have the problems that caused the December 2018 and March 2020 stock market crash been resolved?

The US Federal balance sheet has increased by nearly $4 trillion since September 2019 and since July 2020 has increased by $64 billion every month. The US had has so far have purchased $8.3 trillion worth of ETF to keep its stock market a float.

No nation has managed to print its self out of financial difficulty.
So how long can the US Fed keep this up?

The point is.. .even before the pandemic we had economic problems. The American were already printing money and the EU had negative interest rates. And on our side, Bank Negara had by May 2019 started to cut interest rate.

So as every one rotates into recovery stock, do be aware of what you are rotating into and at what price.

JP Morgan has claimed that the supernormal demand for gloves is over. Too bad JP Morgan has not spoke to pfizer as Pfizer will not be able to supply the US with vaccine until the end of June. The US needs 700 million doses but will only receive 100 million by March 2021.

JP morgan has also not considered what Astrazenneca study on their own vaccine has shown. WHile the Astrazenneca vaccine may have been 60-90% efficient at stopping symptomatic cases, the Astrazenneca vaccine was unable to stop asymptomatic infections. We don't know if the pfizer vaccine has a similar flaw.

As for RUN! Run where?

Malaysia has only purchased enough vaccine for 20%, 6 million Malaysians. This is not enough to stop the pandemic, which requires 70-80% of the population to be immune. So Malaysian businesses may not recover in 2021.




Posted by Gaussian > Dec 12, 2020 12:25 AM | Report Abuse
JP Morgan has spoken. TP 3.5. Ruuuuunnnnnnn

Maybe but PAT of TG is higher than Maybank for FY20Q4 and FY21Q1. It will be higher than also in FY21Q2.


Posted by AdCool > Dec 11, 2020 3:46 PM | Report Abuse

Maybank is now almost 1.8 times more valuable than Top Glove. Will take Top Glove forever to be no 1 in the Bursa. Sad.

Run where? Keep saying run but not telling people where to run.

Where is still paying dividend?

all you are asking is for people to run like a headless chicken.

Posted by mf > Dec 11, 2020 3:08 PM | Report Abuse
run

Look the US will approve all vaccine. And vaccine company will push for it, why?


Because the US has 3000+ plus death from covid19 a day.
Company will push because vaccine companies have already sign deal with US, UK and EU that they are not liable for any side effect from their product. Any compensation has to be obtained from the plaintiff's home nation.

So yay for the vaccine, but if you get into medical trouble from using it, it is your own fault for using a product that is not fully tested.

And pfizer can only provide the US with more than the original 100 million doses after late June. The US needs a total of 700 million doses for their entire population.

that is just the Malaysian way.



Posted by RojaknMojak > Dec 10, 2020 7:37 PM | Report Abuse

even thailand helping local glove champions to be world champions

we? we bash down our local champions and let others take its place.

lol

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2020/12/10/thai-ru...

dun invest in malaysia pls

The last large warrant to mature in the money is in February (only one). By April, the excision price and excision ratio will be so high that warrants will not longer have the pull to affect TG mother share.

IB have already re-calibrated their warrant ... so it is back to normal, ie warrant holders have almost no chance to expire in the money and if it does, the high ratio means IB doesn't have pay much money or sell many mother shares.

It also means the good times of holding warrants would have ended.

Posted by ahpooki2 > Dec 10, 2020 1:10 PM | Report Abuse
and we wonder why after showing astronomical results, the price went negative yesterday? and is being kept roughly at current price..it aint going to move until all the warrants are done with....so far the last warrant is sep 2021...LOL

The market is always correct... just look at Hertz. The company is bankrupt , in USD 18bn of debt and being delisted. But it shares are up and people want to buy it so much that Hetz wanted to issue USD500 million in new shares. until it was stopped

Basing a double top solely on the formation of two consecutive peaks could lead to a false reading and cause an early exit from a position.

Why is it an all or none situation?

If you hold banking stocks it will take 3-5 years for the pandemic to end and the economy recovers before you see good dividends again.

If you hold glove stock you will see good dividend for the next 1-2 years while the pandemic remains.

Hold both and be done with it.

And banking stocks are cyclic too. They follow the economy cycle, a recession every 7-10 years. CIMB when from RM7 to RM2.9

TG is also cyclic, following the epidemic cycle... once every 4-5 years.

Finally, CIMB and Maybank are regional banks. Maybank is NOT the world's largest banks. Topglove is a global company, it is the world's largest glove manufacturer in the world


Posted by DannyArcher > Dec 10, 2020 12:54 AM | Report Abuse

continue to post denial comments, whatever it is, the party is over, no conspiracy. Why nobody wants to buy glove stock now? This is because everybody is afraid the bubble will pop, and it is popping. no hidden hands, just that majority of investor have left for other stocks like tourism and banking. People go for recovery stock now.

glove is over, why? because people know their profit will only drop once vaccine is widely available, which is soon.

so, just move on. stock market is forward looking. Can glove company sustain these crazy earnings for 2 or 3 or 5 years from now? NO! But banking stock, such as PBB or MBB might be able to make more profit 5 years from today. So, glove party is over. The sooner you cut losses the better it is.

The better question is will Malaysian be fully vaccinated by the end of 2021?

Right now, the US has stated it will not allow the sale of a Covid19 vaccine to any nation until they are fully vaccinated. AKA America First, And Pfizer will not be able to deliver substantial amounts of vaccine beyond the 100 million doses it promised the US until late June or july. US needs about 700 million doses for its 327 million citizens

So while the US maybe fully vaccinated by the end of 2021, can the same be said for Malaysia? Malaysia may not recover from Covid19 until 2022.

If we are all so forward looking, assuming the vaccines all work... we need to consider the actual production capacity of the various vaccines and their cost. Pfizer vaccine production capacity is 1.3 billion doses a year and their vaccine is USD 20 per dose (at wholesale price to governments) and each person needs two doses. Moderna production capacity is 500m doses a year and it cost is USD 10-50 per dose, 2 doses per person.

Population of europe is 741mil people and US has 327 million. Total 1068 million people, requiring 2136 million doses.

It is estimate that 1:148 people in the UK are infected by Covid19. You don't know who is infected.

If you are injecting one person, sure you can wash your hands before and after injecting the vaccine.

But if you have several hundred people to inject every day for several weeks.... you will find your skin not being able to survive that kind of damage.

Why do you think doctors and nurses wear gloves if washing hands works so very well?


Posted by EdwinYap86 > Dec 9, 2020 5:47 PM | Report Abuse
Because only treating infected patients need. Injection of public no need, because they not infected

Even if all the hot money is in vaccine counters, it is not safe to follow them. Malaysia is not going to produce any vaccine, and the malaysian government is going to buy enough vaccine to cover 70% of the population.

So with no product to sell and a very little market, all the hot money in vaccine stocks is a trap. Last one holding the bag gets all the loses. Especially as many vaccine counters aren't actual vaccine companies.



Posted by yellowman > Dec 9, 2020 4:09 PM | Report Abuse
guys, accept the facts ! Gloves are gone! no matter what's the profit looks like, hot money already with vaccine counters. useless

Genting is in the red. Deep red. If you sell TG, at least buy something that isn't deep in the red. Genting will only recover once the pandemic is over in Malaysia. Malaysia won't be finish vaccinating the population until 2022.

Posted by SHQuah > Dec 5, 2020 10:14 PM | Report Abuse
I aspect EPF will continue selling in huge volume until end of the year. Share buy back cannot support the share from falling. Do not catch the falling knife. Sell all Gloves share and move to Genting Holding.

Let me tell you what happens when the population of poor nations are not vaccinated.... the virus mutates. It mutates until a new strain of the virus can overcome the vaccine and then it reinfects the population that was vaccinated. Then, a new vaccine will need to be developed and another vaccination program done. SARS-Cov2 is a mRNA type virus that mutates rapidly.

This is why the vaccine must last 1 year to allow time for global vaccination and the entire world population has to be vaccinated.

Gloves are needed to perform vaccination when dealing with a contagious virus that most of the population has no immunity to. This is SOP for a pandemic. What you are thinking is SOP for situation where most of the population already has immunity, like when you are give babies their standard immunization. Just read up the guidelines of the UK for doctors when administrating the SARS-Cov2 vaccine.

US ban has affected only half of TG sales to the US. If supermax increases it sales to the US it will have to decrease sales to elsewhere because demand currently outstrips production capability. Even Supermax has over a 1 year waiting list, Supermax has to drop somebody to pickup more US customers. TG will pick up any customer Supermax drops. Europe, Japan and South Korea has not banned TG. In the end, TG makes two times more gloves than supermax.



Posted by ocpd > Dec 4, 2020 1:18 AM | Report Abuse

Some imbeciles actually think everyone in the world needs to be vaccinated?

1) Most poor countries got no money for masks and gloves let alone vaccines
2) Only 60% of the rich country population need to be vaccinated
3) Gloves are not required to perform vaccination
4) Even US demands more gloves unfortunately TG is in their ban list, so go buy Supermax

Because Europeans and Americans don't want to buy latex gloves. ie Latex allergies. They prefer nitrile gloves, especially in a medical setting when the doctors don't know if the patient they are touching has latex allergies. Nitriles gloves are also stronger than latex gloves.

Only when there is super shortage then people start looking for alternatives. ie latex gloves.

That is the reason why latex prices has been slow to rise. But they have risen doubling since june 2020.

The high taxes on cigarettes in 2015, that caused the rise of illegal cigarettes is still there. All the 2021 budget has done is put a tax on vape market, so the 'natural' reaction is for the emergence of illegal e-cigarettes and vape liquid.

I think the only way to return the tobacco market to pre-2015 profitability is to simultaneously reduce taxes on legal cigarette, increase crack down on illegal cigarettes and for BAT to branch into E-cigarettes.

Anything less, and I don't don't think BAT will recover to RM40 per share value.

The currently economic conditions are pushing people to buy cheaper and cheaper cigarettes which traditional legal cigarettes cannot compete. Market force just make illegal cigarettes too profitable.

Illegal cigarettes accounted for 65% of all cigarettes sold in Malaysia and by the end of 2020 JIT estimate that number to reach 70%.

I think we should be cautious.

Hi guys,

Before celebrating too much, BAT has reached RM13 and stayed at RM13 for 3 weeks, only to slide down again. Don't put in more than you can safely hold for a while. Illegal cigarettes has been eating into BAT profits since 2015. Half a decade ago. It has been a chronic problem for the industry.

There are 7.8 bn people on earth.
Human have 2 hands
All vaccines at the moment are 2 doses, given 1 month apart.

So just to vaccinate everyone = 7.8bn * 2 * 2 = 31.2bn gloves.

All the Covid19 testing also need gloves.

All the sick people with Covid19 also need gloves. It will take about 1 year to vaccinate everyone. Longer if you live in an undeveloped nation like us.

And SARS-Cov2 isn't the only outbreak at the moment. There is an on going Ebola outbreak in Africa. Nobody cares but it is there, and if you have no gloves, 90% mortality rate.

Posted by ocpd > Dec 2, 2020 8:38 PM | Report Abuse
But we only need one time 4 billion gloves to vaccinate everyone. After that who needs glove? Yearly gloves capacity is hitting 200 billions.

That is sad.

But at least we will have a RM3 share that pays at least 17 sen in dividend per quarter until mid 2022 that may well double to 34 sen per quarter by Q2FY21.

9%-40% dividend yield will have to sooth my injured portfolio.

Posted by SafetyFirst > Dec 1, 2020 12:07 PM | Report Abuse
This time TG QR out mean End game .
Glove 。THE END 。
after that downtrend forever to RM3

That is normal. On average for every 3 shares EPF buys, it will sell 2 for profit. Just look at its history.

When EPF is accumulating it does not just buy. When EPF is dropping that stock from its portfolio, it doesn't just sell.

EPF bought a lot of shares at RM6.2-RM6.8, so obviously it will be selling some when TG is RM7.xx



Posted by Boringguy > Dec 1, 2020 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

TopGlove Revenue drop Profit increase!!
now EPF busy selling off their share....

THe total production capacity of TG in January 2020 was 75 bn gloves a year. Now it is 90 bn gloves a year.

That increasing production capacity is not spoken for and thus is free to increase in price.

That is how TG can increase its ASP. It is increasing its production capacity and the new capacity can be sold at higher prices.

Posted by Trading2U > Dec 1, 2020 9:58 AM | Report Abuse
abang, thought the lead time already 1 year.. ppl already placed order earlier how u increase the price la? abang oh abang..

https://www.sumnerhealthcentre.com/site/statistics/law_of_small_numbers

THe law of small numbers



'The problem is that there are statistical methods that will determine significance on almost any sample size, as they are simple mathematical tools and not intended in themselves to make judgements of worth. This means that many studies with very small sample sizes claim a significant result even when doing so is plainly illogical. Peer review does not get prevent this as the reviewers assume a trained audience who should be aware of the importance of sample size and may feel a paper is worthy of publication in case it might inform further research.'

'When you are reading the abstract of a paper, it is very important therefore to bear in mind the size of the sample. As a rule, studies with a sample size less than 500 should be treated with great caution regardless of who was involved in the study. Using the data requires a good deal of expertise and a thorough understanding of both the complete study methodology and other studies in the field. From the perspective of a patient reading about their healthcare'

excerpts.

More reading
http://stats.org.uk/statistical-inference/TverskyKahneman1971.pdf
https://uxdesign.cc/the-law-of-small-numbers-and-its-impacts-on-design-a0c5a83986bb

Well give that this 'dead' cat has bounced 7 times already, it might just be a live cat.

Posted by Makeabuck > Nov 30, 2020 6:18 PM | Report Abuse
@Agjl, someone will say its dead cat jump again...

Looks like everyone ran away from banks and jumped into gloves.

Hmmm... so much for gloves being dead. Might have to do with the fact that covid19 is going strong internationally and locally covid19 is not letting up either. So businesses are closed and people out of work... meaning banks can't get their money back.

Where exactly will you RUN too?

Bank stocks? CIMB?
Airline? AirAsia?
Cash? (Not worried about inflation? OPR is now 1.75% and will fall)

Any suggestions?

Oh... buy low sell high. Easy to implement in theory. In practice?

Posted by SafetyFirst > Nov 29, 2020 3:23 PM | Report Abuse
Glove is downtrend forward. chart will tell u no hope。
please give up 。next year become RM3 soon 。
i will leave all glove 。 RUN

Because there is a huge demand for gloves is very high. By the distributor end, nitrile gloves are selling at USD256-USD 998 per 1000pcs With an average price of about $400 per 1000pcs.

So ASP for manufacturers can rise.

Only when covid19 cases fall, will glove price fall. There are now 600,000 new cases per day world wide. This is double what was the number of early October.

Posted by Goldgent > Nov 29, 2020 9:13 AM | Report Abuse
Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine RM79.36 per dose only kah?
Why glove ASP so high? Will drop to pasar malam price soon?

“Did any Malaysians participate in the third phase of Pfizer’s clinical trial?"
>No

"In the event of adverse effects, who will be held responsible?
>No one, only yourself to blame. The US, UK and EU have already settled the matter with major pharmaceutical companies. If you take the vaccine early before phase III results are obtain late in 2021 or 2022, you are taking the vaccine candidate on your own volition knowing that the vaccine candidate has not been fully tested. The company is absolved of all responsibility.

“And what is the Government’s plan to monitor the vaccine’s effectiveness after being disbursed?” he asked.
>I can't answer this.

"the vaccine, designed under the m-RNA technology, would alter a human genetic code once administered."
>No. While theoretically possible it is extremely unlikely. However given the small number of people vaccinated, only 20%, this vaccine will be unable to stop the pandemic. The herd immunity threshold will not be reached. SARS-Cov2 threshold is estimated to be 60-70%


“By the way, do we even have the logistics ability to store the vaccine under -80 degrees Celcius?"
>The quantity of pfizer vaccine Malaysia has obtained is sufficient for only 20% of the Malaysian population and will delivered a little at a time over 2021. Thus at any one time there won't be many doses to store. Thus Malaysia's dry ice facility will be sufficient.

“Both mRNA and mDNA vaccines have never been used on humans before, only on animals.
>First time for everything.


“There has been a lot of controversy in the Western media and scientific & medical circles on the safety of Pfizer’s GMO vaccine, partly due to the rush job in the clinical trials.
>Indeed. Pfizer's data on efficacy is based on 170 cases of covid19, where 8 of the sick people were vaccinated. This is from a study group of 43000 people, and you expect the half with the placebo to be ill.

Also the vaccine has had barely enough time to display any side effect upon interaction with the virus. They may hit the minimum, it is obvious that the vaccine has not been challenged much by the virus.

https://www.fishersci.com/us/en/catalog/search/products?sortBy=popularity&keyword=nitrile+gloves&searchType=PROD&nav=0&sort=&offSet=0&typeAheadCat=

Take a look at what nitrile gloves are being sold for.
For 1000 nitrile gloves the sale price is between USD 269 to USD 965. THe most popular glove cost USD 332

And right now all SARS-Cov2 vaccine are two doses. You need to be vaccinated twice, once every 2 weeks for the vaccine to work.
Global population is 7.8bn

So how much gloves are needed? 2 hand * 2 doses * 7.8bn people = 31.2bn

The cost to of gloves to vaccinate the world is
1000 gloves = USD 332 (most popular nitrile gloves)
31.2bn gloves / 1000 * USD 332 = USD 10.36bn

Malaysia makes 70% of all gloves in the world.
Topglove makes about 50% of all the gloves made in Malaysia.

TG share of glove market = 70% * 50% = 35%

This is just the demand for gloves caused by the mass vaccination program. The demand for glove for other things, like non-covid19 cases, and covid19 will continue.

The entire super demand for gloves come from caring of 60 million covid19 cases and running ~860 million covid19 tests.

USD 70 for 1000 gloves is impossibly cheap for the world we now live in.

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@ choysun

You do realize that the amount of doses Malaysia purchase of the Pfizer vaccine candidate is only sufficient for 20% of the Malaysian population and will only complete delivery by the end of 2021.

So it is 20% of Malaysia vaccinated in 1 year.

This will not stop the pandemic in Malaysia as you will need to reach threshold of herd immunity ~70-80%. So it will take the government years to vaccinate the entire population. And while that is happening the virus will continue to spread.

And yes... the doctors vaccinating that 20% of Malaysia will wear gloves. People don't just have the potential to carry SARS-Cov2, they can carry other diseases, HIV for example.

Try wiping down your hands with alcohols several times a day and you will know why that is a stupidly painful idea.

Did TG say in October that it wanted to list in Hong Kong.
Well if they want to that they need to sell shares.
So TS has a choice either he issue more shares and dilute the holdings of all share holders, sell his own shares and risk losing control of his company OR buy shares on the open Market when the price is low to sell them when the price is higher in HK.

TG has gone so far to hire banks to do the listing. Back in October they said it would take 6-9 months.

So there is a reason for the share buy banks. TG wants to reach a bigger pool of investors. This will both increase share prices due to larger interest and stabilize prices as there is greater inertia and number of investor.

The market capital in HK is 5 times larger than Singapore and 10x larger than Malaysia.

So chill. There is a reason for SBB. Average SBB for TG is RM7.32. They have been cost averaging down since TG started SBB.

If you really want to give up on gloves and buy recovery stock, by all means sell and buy AirAsia or Maybank or CIMB or GenM. Share price of AA is now +70sen when just a year ago it was RM3+

I will continue to monitor the daily number of covid19 cases, which is over half a million new cases a day.

Here Trump is just lying. It isn't next week. The FDA has already said they will make their decision on December 10.

The efficacy results right now is based on limited data. From Pfizer is based on 170 people and Moderna is based on 90 people.

...

Posted by AlvinTSK > Nov 27, 2020 1:39 PM | Report Abuse
Trump need to prove a point and this will be it !! If it is true !! Lets see

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2020/11/27/trump-says-coronaviru...

Well right now , all the glove demand has come from caring of 60
million people sick with Covid19 and running ~850 million covid19 test.

Now with vaccine, some 7500 million people need to be vaccinated. Since all covid19 vaccines are double dose, so 2 pairs of gloves (4 gloves need to be used at a minimum). ~27 billion gloves. (assuming 90% vaccination rate)

After vaccinated, you will want to test if person has antibodies or not. So government would do covid19 test again. Maybe 1 in 100 person will randomly tested. Again more gloves.

So vaccine is good for TG. It will drive up sales very significantly. I expect dividends to double once mass vaccination begins.


Posted by newbie4444 > Nov 25, 2020 12:32 PM | Report Abuse
Vaccine nobody ever heard in i3? Why vaccine good for TG?