steady31, I think the moderator in.the web briefing did ask GNK whether MFCB will acquire technological company like penta. His answer is more like he prefer to invest in talents rather than company. Just gather a team with a group good engineers and start from there. D&O was built 20 years ago with this manner. Do not need to pay big sum of money.

kenken, wailim has given.the answer . thanks wailim.

poseidon80 , you are the most confident supermx forum participant I have seen so far in this forum . You dare to put in a number RM 7 and challenge the naysayer. Your tgt price is almost the same as what I calculated in my worst case scenario. I entered very low at 4 and average at 4.90 in March. I did not sell in April when it reach 6 plus because I believe the value is higher based on my own projection . I can feel the naysayers are very " kan chong " whenever someone post a message which is detrimental to their agenda . They are waiting to snap up more at cheaper prices .My salute to you .

One thing I noticed , THe more naysayers who dont own supermx come to the forum , the more values supermx has . Logically , if they dont own supermx shares or thinking that it will go down further and further , why they bother to waste their times day and night sending messages putting fears in this forum . Some even use ABUSIVE words against genuine shareholders who share . THey come here with a purpose , to scare off the retailers to sell so that they can collect low .

melanie181818 , THis is supermx forum . You dont own any supermx shares but come here to use abusive words against shareholders who shares about supermx fundamentals .This is MORALLY WRONG in the first place . You got the cheek to talk about morals ? You are the most despicable,unethical and poor upbringing woman I have ever seen in this forum . Others will judge who is more despicable ? You think you can silent me by hurling ABUSIVE words on me ? Why are you here ? TRying to silent others who share so that you can buy low by scaring off those retailers ? Bad karma will hit you .

You cant compare the top 4 with Rubberex which has only a few billion.capaciity. Before pandemic, Rubberex make only 2 to 3 % profit and sometime breakeven or lose money. Rubberex is just too small to be in the same league.

Moneymaker , for serious investment , we must get prepared for worst case scenario. In the business world , it is like a war.zone , you must know the competitors, know your.own.strength. Then only you can win the war . I have just commented in the article by Author Suth titled " Glove ASP is declining , shall you sell your glove stocks ?"". I have shown the worst case scenario if mfg ASP. goes back to pre pandemic level. when capacity is doubled . I also assume.the utilization drop to only 65 % which is a very conservative number. Even at.such level.supermx.still.offer great value. The capacity.expansion per 1000.pcs in supermx is even.cheaper than.China. With the continue strength of Chinese.Yuan, China is no longer cheap manufacturers . Read my latest comment.

Observatory , thanks for your sharing . There is no doubt competition will be intensified in the coming years or months .

On the cost of capacity expansion per thousand , the Topglove quoted cost of 100 billions pa for RM 10 billions is too high . I am not sure this is just a rough number as I know Topglove has grown its capacity from 73 billions in 2019 and will grow to 205 billions in 2024. Supermx is more explicit . It stated that it will add 22.8 billions by spending RM 1.39 billions . This is rm 60.96 million per billions pa or US 14.69 per 1000 pcs .This is still cheaper than China US 16.81 as calculated by you . I remembered reading an article in The Star the cost of installing a billion per year capacity is about RM 65 millions .

China is strengthening is currency against US Dollar . Recently it hit the strongest with a 3 year record .With the QEs in US , China currency will continue to strengthen .That means the cost of mfg in China will increase further .Besides , China has an inherent weakness in cost due to cost of natural gas where Malaysian glove makers has an advantage .

On supermx , I do not know if you are aware that Supermx has dual incomes from both mfg and Distribution . Supermx had reorganised its business models since March 2020 . I had commented also in this forum . The combined ASP of these two businesses are higher than the mfg ASP s which all of us refer to .
The US 40 ASP for Supermax is actually the combined ASP with the equivalent mfg ASP of US 25 on Nitrile and 19 on Latexx . RHB projected long term stabilised combined ASP of US 37 for supermx . THis is equivalent to mfg ASP of US 24 for Nitrile and US 19 for Latex at a ratio of 90% to 10 % when its capacity increase to 48 billions pa . I think this is a reasonable projection as US 24 for Nitrile and 19 for Latexx are almost at pre pandemic prices .
I would think this is the worst case scenario . IF we take the April--June 2020 QR as a guide where the combined ASP was about US 40 and its margin about 43 % , I can have a conservative estimate of Supermx value with an ASP of US 37 and a 40 % margin as follows

PAT = 37 x 48.42 x 0.65 x 4.15 x 0.40 = RM 1933 millions

assuming utilization of 65 % and capacity of 48.42 billions .

EPS = 1933 / 2721 = RM 0.71

With a PE of 15 , tgt price will be RM 10.65 which give very good margin of safety at last Friday closing of RM 4.25

GloveOff , You are the one who call me grandpa first . I thought you have become a robot and cant recognise your own papa . Why get agitated when I call you son ?

GloveOff , son , there are always two sides of a coin. On klse component , before supermx get admitted into klse, the shares.was.shooting up. After.admitted, the share price keep dropping to 1/3 of the peak. Poor fengshui loh. Now out of klci, good fengshui will come back lor. On vaccines, all glove makers make record profits this year after many countries.started vaccinations . All glove maker capacities are also fully booked until end of the year. You should also get vaccinated . good for you mah. Who say vaccines no good ?

GloveOff, yalor , this low life melanie keep using abusive words against your papa . Papa tried to share the S class.merc in.Supermerc Forum. This low life who dont own.a Super Merc got agitated on.what I share about how good the Supermx is . He said I am a scammer wor. He never own.a Supermerc, how does he know Supermerc is no good.? Is he a bezza salesman? Then.ask him to go to Bezza forum to promote Bexza there lor.

GloveOff my son, where have you been ?You forgot papa had an S class Merc meh ? I quoted Bezza is the anount of dividend.which will be recd next week. If you want a Bezza , I can buy for you son. But I prefer to accumulate.a few more dividend and buy you a camry. pls dont become a robot .

Brian3381 REPEATEDLY said supermx.will.be taken.out from the list of Syariah conpliant but whatever he said was.COMPLETELY FALSE. Brian3381 like to twist . When newspapet said possibly , he TWISTED.it as confirm. Now when the truth is out., he.dared not talk about it and try to Twist in.another news. No one will believe what he said now

I am a shareholder of supermx . It is my interest to look after my investment. This forum.is supermx forum. I have my right to share informations. Those who dont have any supermx shares investment , why.are you.here to condemn the supermx investors sharing.? You must have ulterior motives . I dont mind those who do not own supermx shares to give comment professionally with facts and figures. but dont use ABUSIVE words . The one who keep using ABUSIVE words just show the LOW CLASS and UNEDUCATED , UNETHICAL and poor upbringings mentality of himself or herself. Those in this forum know who are the scammers and who are genuine investors. Shouting with ABUSIVE.words will.only lower yourself further. I can do the same or even more.abusive but I decided not to . DONT TEST MY LIMIT. Take this.analogy .
I own a Mercedes and I go to a Mercedes showroom to share my experience with other Mercedes owners . Then a non M ercedes owner also join in and start hurling ABUSIVE.words against me and said I am a scammer trying to potray all the good things about Mercedes. What do you think those Mercedes.owners will think this person? Why does.he come to the shiwroom.in the first place? If he dont own.a Meredes, how does he know what.I said is not true? This person may have his motive to sell other cars to these mercedes owners but.his method is defintely.WRONG.and UNETHICAL to come to.mercedes showroom and.hurled ABUSIVE words against peoples who share. Imagine how.LOW CLASS this person is ? He would be thrown out if he do that .

Glovefinish, again you are giving your opinion and assumptions . If today you go and take a sampling of 10 uncles and 10 aunties and asked them are they more afraid of covid 19 today vs last year . Last year , the number of deaths per day is one or 2 daily. Today we are talking about 60 to 100 per day. Hospitals are full , not enough ICU, Quarantine centres.are full of peoples. Vaccines? M alaysia only have 5 to 6 % of total population.vaccinated. Another one year to hit 70 %. By then those vaccinated.need to be re vaccinated. By the.way , the efficacies are between 50 to 90 %. The fears of covid are definety must worst this year than last year. This is my opinion.

Moneymaker , I agreed with you.the situation during last year lockdown on 18th March is very different compared with the coming.lockdown. During March.last year., the numbers of infected for the whole.world was very very little. Today or for the last few months, the number of infected were easily 100x more than the same period last year. If you can.remember when.China announced its lockdown on 23 Jan 2020, so many countries were making fun and humiliate .China in Feb and even.March thinking that the pandemic will not happen.in their countries. Only in.April ,.Italy start to feel the gravity of the problem. This year is no joke . It is much.much much worst than.last year.

Glovefinish, I am just stating THE FACTS while you are making Assumptions and Speculaions which.are only your opinions . Nobody knows what will happen in the next 3 months . Will history repeat itself ? We just have to wait.and see loh. No need to be so ""kan chong"". Let the MR MARKET decide loh.

Moneymaker , last year lockdown in.March 18th, the number of cases were only few hundreds, this time lockdown is few thousands which is more than 10 X the numbers. Have you got any appointment to get yourself vaccinated?

Moneymaker , have you.heard a phrase " Those who do not look at history is bound to repeat the same mistakes " ?

The Answers 。

The WORST HIT are Genting.and Airsia . These 2 stocks plunged to their lowest of RM 3 and RM 0.5 and never climbed back to its pre pandemic level after lockdown was unlocked in.mid june last year.
The most ROBUST stocks which.were not affected at all by the lockdown but instead went up a few X of pre pandemic prices from mid March till mid June.were the 7 Glove Stocks.

Even banking atocks.and.my. MFCB with 25 years profit guarentee also went down sharply but they came back .
Check yourself and verify. These are facts which dont lie like the naysayers.

Take a good look at the charts for different categories from banking , technology, property , gloves , airlines , gaming and plantations. you can find the answers on which were the most robust stocks against the lockdown and which were the worst hit during March till June when the FIRST FULL MCO was announced on 18th March 2020.

FACTS DONT LIE .They are historical records

History will repeat itself

Do you know which are the 2 stocks which were worst hit by the March.2020 lockdiwn last year ?

Do you know which stocks are the most robust against last year FIRST FULL LOCKDOWN in
March 2020 ?

Put aside the numbers , I do agree with the Author Suth on the fundamental difference between Tomatoes and Gloves in demand and supply. In the last 20 years , I have heard of oversupply of crops like soya beans , tomatoes , coffees beans , palm oils etc to the extent that the excesses has to be destroyed , burned and turn it into fertilizers . During good seasons , fruits like Durians , Lye Chees ,Mangoes can have oversupply . The price just come down drastically because you can't stop the trees from producing . As for gloves , it is different . if there is oversupply , just shutdown a few lines ,order less raw materials , use less workers , natural gas , electricities , that's it . The manufacturers have to just bear only the overhead . If indeed there is an oversupply with ASP coming down to a certain level, the new comers will be the first to be wiped out because they dont have the economy of scales and they need to borrow heavily to instal new capacities unlike the big 4 which use their huge earnings for expansions . When the new comers are wiped out and the big players turn off the taps partially , supply will be curbed . Demand will exceed supply again and ASP will rise back . Unlike crops and fruits, the farmers have to sell at a loss because you cant keep them because they are perishables . The farmers losses will be even more if they let them rot . Gloves can be kept as inventory , lines can be shutdown , new players can be wiped out . Crops and fruits like palm oils and Durians , the farmers cannot just say , I quit this business by uprooting the trees do other things , that will be more costly . Hope those who suggest gloves are like tomatoes see the difference .

Obsevatory , the glove investors have no choice but to rely on MARGMA ,Research houses FROST and SULLIVANS and VITAL FACTOR CONSULTING for input and data . You seems to have done some research yourself . Can you kindly share with us your numbers ? It will be very helpful for retail glove investors have another alternative source of data .

After supermx last QR , All IBs give " BUY" calls with the following tgt prices .

1. Nomura RM 8.39
2. BIMB RM 7.30
3. Kenanga RM 6.80
4. AffinHwang RM 7.40
5. RHB RM 6.60
6. TA RM 6.07

Average RM 7.09

All give BUY calls . Only Naysayers say sell but do not give justifications but behave like ROBOTS repeatedly scare retail investors day and night .

All the Glove makers had released their Jan-March 2021 QR . To summarise as follows "

1. All seven of them make record profits
2. Most of them including Supermx has their capacities booked till end of the year .
3. All of them continue to see strong demand .
4. Topglove , Harta , Comfort ,Supermx expected better results in coming qtrs . These 4 glove makers shipments were affected last qtr due to container shortage and plant shutdowns .
5. Leadtime dropping but still at 6 to 7 months .
6. Supermx 's contractual ASPs for the next 3 qtrs are expected to be between US 80 to 110 .
7. Supermx spot prices drop 15 to 25 % to US 70 to 80 . New contracts will be negotiated using this price . Shipments for these new contracts will be delivered in 2022 .

GloveOff, you are my son not grandson. I and your mama feel so.sad you have become a robot using the name GloveOff . How.come even the name we gave to you also.dare not use. Sob....goodnite my little robot .

GloveOff , are you a robot . You keep repeating the same old messages . Are you a robot ?

GloveOff , you son of a gun . Why dont you come and follow grandpa and see for yourself ?

Supermx had taken measures on the following a year ago on US Customs and Border Protection .

Restriction of movement :

Workers passports and other identification documents are no longer held by the company and are kept by the workers themselves . Secure lockers have been installed for the workers to safekeep their important documents

Debt Bondage

Debt free recruitment policy implemented whereby the company engages reputable recruitment agencies with the arrangement that all agent fees and other recruitment related fees are absorbed by the company on behalf of the workers .

Excessive Overtime

Malaysian Labour law cap of not more than 104 hrs of overtime a month is strictly observed . Workers have a day off each week and those keen to work overtime are allowed up to 3 hrs overtime a day ( or 72 hrs a month ) .

The above are extracts from the Supermx Briefing slides dated 9th Aug 2020 .I think supermx is prepared if there is any investigation due to accusation of forced labour .

From Supermx August 9th 2020 Briefing on ESG + CSR Commitment.

Supermx has commissioned and undergone a SEDEX Members Ethical Trade Audit (SMETA) audit by an independent auditor successfully and admitted as member of SEDEX .
Sedex is one of the world's leading ethical trade service provider working to improve working conditions in global supply chains . It provides practical tools , services and a community network to help companies improve their responsible and sustainable business practices and source responsibly
SMETA is an ethical audit format which reports on Sedex's four pillars of labour , health , safety and environment in reflecting good business ethics

To all genuine supermx investors, I suggest you spend some time reading the article by author Sutp with the Title " Glove ASP declining , shall we sell our glove stocks" . The author has tabulated a set of numbers with an.assumption that the ASP come down to the stabilised state of US 40 from the current US 86 per 1000 and the capacity goes up to 48 billions pa in 3023 . I have also given.my comments . Feel free to ask questions on the numbers and assumptions.

Sutp, thanks for your reply . The assumption of 30 % increase in production cost is a lot . Based on my high volume production experience, the unit cost usually come down when volume increases . The fixed cost will goes down by half when volune double . Any way, I am more optimistic . My assumption is no unit cost increase when volume double. No matter what assumptions, the tgt price of 11.19 give us ample margin of safety.at current price of 4.25.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/826107

ruby20 , yes . GNK is a great businessman who believe in talent investment. The last I met him was year 2000 when I had dealing with him on LED business. I also met KC Tay and Lau of D & O. At that time , GNK and Tay were just starting to build a LED team which comprises manager and enginners who came mainly from Infineon Melaka when these peoples refused to relocate from Melaka to Penang after OSRAM acquired the LED business from Infineon. Never.know that D&O has grow leap and bound in the last one year. Its share price had also.grown many X
within a year. GNK has great foresight and great.wisdom. His hairs.also drop a lot since I last met him.haha

OMG , Today 9020 . Better get yourself vaccinate.ASAP. Up everyday non stop.

Suth , I have a question on your column B estimation. I supposed you use 30 % net margin to come to the PAT of 1170 millions using below calculations

PAT = 40 x 25.99 x 0.9 x 0.3 = 1165 which is very close to your 1170 millions

May I know why you use 30 % margin ?

I suggest you look at the actual margin of April -June 2020 QR . The ASP during this qtr is about US 40 . THis can be derived from the following .

Revenue = 929 million
PAT = 399.62 million
Net Margin = 399.62 /929/399.62 = 43 %

Estimated ASP = 929/ 6 /0.95 / 4.15 = US 39.27

Based on this actual April- June 2020 QR result , the ASP is estimated at US 39.42 which is very close to 40 . At that period the capacity is 24 billion pa or 6 billion per qtr .

By using the 30 % margin in your calculation , you have lost 13 % of the margin which is actually 30 % of the total margin . If you read the QR of April-June 2020 qtr , the ratio of mfg profit vs distribution profit is 70 : 30 . In last qtr report , the ration has changed to 65 : 35 which means the supermx distribution profit has grown in % .

In column 2 , My estimate will be rm 1670 million if ASP were to drop to US 40 using 43 % margin instead of 30 % . Then the earning in column 3 will be 1670 x 2 = rm 3340 per year based on doubling of capacity to 48 billion from 24 billions per year .

The earning per share will be 3340/ 2721 = rm 1.23 . It is up to the market to give whatever PE to this eps .

The above is my input .I welcome your comment .

Brian3381, You have lost your credibility already . You keep saying supermx will be taken out from syariah compliant on 28th May but I couldnt find supermx from the list of 15 which was taken out ?

Oh before I forget , 2 more qurstions
7. Will Tan Sri himself do share buy back like what the other glove makers CEO did to boost up the confidence of other minority investers?
8. When will the 4 % Treasury.shares be distributed to shareholders?

Yesterday, I attended a solid 2.5 hrs Web briefing by MFCB Management where many questions sent before the briefing were answered by the MD and CEO of the company. I wish supermx will do the same in its next QR briefing where serious investors can.also participate but limited to 200 peoples. I will ask the following questions:
1. What is supermx dividend policy.
2. How the management intend to use the cash piles.
3. How much capacity does supermx intend to instal in the future US plant?
4. What actions will.supermx take in order to consistently meet the syariah compliant of not more than 33 % cash over total assets.
5。When will its contact lens business be profitable?
6. Does supermx intend to acquire sone glove company in the next few years ?

ykloh. Yes . I think what KYY meant was Can Yuan REplace US Dollar current position where about 50 % of world trade is using US Dollar ?
The EU will promote and ensure the Euro remain relevant unless EU breakup. The British pound will go downhills as Britain 's economy continue to go downhill .

Sutp and Andre Kua , the estimations made by both of you are ONLY the supermx manufacturing revenue and earnings . Both of you had omitted supermx's the other income stream which comes from Supermx Distribution Centres . Supermx has 7 own Distribution Centres in the world which are profit Centres and technically a different Entity.Supermx manufacturing sell 40 % of its gloves to Independent Distributors , 58 % to Supermx Distribution Centres and 2 % to OEM customers . Both Independent distributors , Supermx Distributors or OEM will mark up the prices and sell it to FINAL customers . Based on Supermx Briefing Slides dated 9th August 2020 , the final customer prices can be 3x to 4x factory prices of about US 22 to 23 during pre pandemic to 1.5x at the height of pandemic when the factory price reached 110 .
The Supermx Distributors profit are added into Supermx Manufacturing profits in the Quarterly Report .
During the April - June Qtr 2020, Supermx made a drastic change by reorganising its business models. It cut off all the middlemen like agents , dealers and increased the % of OBM cum own distributors from 40 % to 58 % and also increased the % of independent distrition to 40 % by cutting off OEM from 30 % to 2 % . Such drastic re organizzation of its business model enabled its revenue increase more than 2 fold , earning more than 25 x and margin to 43 % . The other 3 glove players during the same period do not have such exponential increase in both revenue and earnings . You can verify the numbers .
If you analyse the QR of April-June 2020 QR , the combined ASP gave you US 40 but the factory ASP was about US 27 which is about 15 % increase compared with pre pandemic of US 22 to US 23 . However , the Nett profit jumped 25 x yoy . This is attributed to the profit from both the second income streams and increase ASPs .
The Earnings from Supermx own distributors should not be omitted in your computations .

RJ87, What the CEO Goh meant was that dont use up too much money for dividend . MFCB need to prepare for the future and expand before the current Don Sahong expire in 24 years time .New power plant need a lot of cash . RE will still be the main focus . Both Solar power plants or Hydro Electric power plants needs big capital . However , he said MFCB will continue to pay dividend consistently but at 20 to 30 % of earnings .

RJ87. The first part was briefing on Q1 Result which we already know. The interesting part is on.dividend. The CEO said that MFCB will not pay too much dividend because it need the cash to prepare for future expansion like investing in 2nd or 3 rd. Don.Sahong power plants . Renewable energy will still be future focus. He also touched on the topic on coconut.and macademia plantation. He said coconut.will be in.strong demand a few years.down.the road.

Life is more important than.making money. Dont end up 人在天堂，錢在银行ya.

Get yourself vaccinated.ASAP. I will.get my.AZ vaccines next 2 weeks. The efficacy.is about 90 %. Sinovac also ok even though.efficacy is 50 to 60 %. Even if you get infected after vaccination, it will either be no symtoms, mild symtoms like fever or cough but you wont get serious symtoms like cannot breath or need to go into.ICU. Vaccinated is better than.no vaccination.

Can yuan replace US Dollar ? Not until at least another 20 years . The Russian & IRan oils using Yuan as exchange is the first step towards accelerating USAGE of Yuan . The Sanctions by US against IRAN has forced IRAN to sign a 25 years trade deals with China using Yuan as trade denominations. . While Iran sells oils to China in Yuan , China can sell most of its products to Iran in Yuan too .The next areas possibly Yuan can be used is RCEP which accounts for one third of world trade . Yuan must shows stability over a period of time before more countries have confidence . IF US dollar keep declining with US govenment keep doing unlimited QE , it will depreciate and slowly lost its shine because nobody wants to keep US dollar as deposit if it keeps depreciating . China also begin to set foot in Middle East . The active participation by China in recent Palestinian Isreal conflict is China strategy to win over the hearts of Middle East muslim countries .Once these countries start to use Yuan to trade with China , the world geopolitics will shift .Hope they wont be any world war due to such shift .