From qualitative analysis , of coz petron failed to meet almost all aspects. But when you look at quantitative side, I still think there are much risk for now to be honest. It is almost a gamble of whether there’s a better year ahead 400m, a normal year 300m-200m or a bad year 100m-negative. Unless you bet it right with 400m, there’s some chance to hit and run with some low p/e investors buying from you. Other than that, highly chances the market will still pay petron a low p/e for unsustainable growth. In my opinion, the safest time to punt petron is to buy when they are having a bad year, best is losing money (probably of unexpected crack spread from its refinery, there’s chance) and provided share prices are depressing. Manipulating fear and greed on this petron share price is the best chance you are looking at, but no petron is not in depressing mode now.

lol, i doubt gens can handle both osaka IR & Yokohama IR. too much to chew...

If you are really scare of getting margin call, you may wait until your origin portfolio is profiting. Let said your existing portfolio raise 30%, you buy extra using margin base on this 30%. By protecting your capital in many ways, managing your portfolio well, cutting loss on shares that bought using margin can minimize your fear on getting margin call. People I have seen struggling with using margin usually lost money in share investing without using leverage too. Over optimistic sailang and go beyond own financial capability is the real problem kc had illustrated, leverage itself is never the problem don’t you agree?

Stock investing is about future, not past. Dufu results not bad in my opinion. Healthier than what I expected

You are welcomed monetary, let’s us enjoy the ride.

老实说科技板块有些涨得太快了， 下个月的业绩是否每一家都达标预期 我敢说至少一半不达标

monetary, from i have heard and seen...Elsoft testing equipment is more efficient than mmsv and vis. But Mmsv ability to get big contracts are more efficient among. Vis is the weakest in all aspects and the smallest among.

wow..

so many jokers here, if you guys want to sell please go ahead. The strongest catalyst for share price to move is earning. cry or laugh we'll see on 31/12/19.

So tempting to take profit now...

Good Ricky Yeo perhaps you are right, Let's us observe how Tguan is doing.

KC, since you said there's pros and cons on leverage i do suggest you to write an article on how to use leverage wisely next time. Include some strategies, awareness of traps. Using case study on the darkness alone doesn't actually help them understand SMF as whole.

Ricky Yeo, > 220,000tonnes with $1600 * (4.20) = approximately 1.5bil revenue, with 7% margin = approximately 100million, with p/e at 10. Every above prediction is not what i made out from nowhere, it's from tguan ceo alvin. Go and scroll back old news....

Ricky Yeo, they estimated with 7% margin bottomline with $1.5bil revenue. They might be too optimistic but somehow before Q4 17, it managed to maintain quite a long time. I am not telling you i agree with the 1 billion market cap target, just sharing with you how management derive their target price based on their target output on capacity hence others follow by. Also, i don't feel its appropriate to compare what our gloves business with our local plastics packaging business as case study. They have different story on market cycle and also competitive advantages, period. I wouldn't bet on how long it takes them to get $1bil market cap but i cautiously believe ROC for tguan would be higher than 10% in short-mid term.

Dumb dumb hold

Its so wrong to calculate fair value by merely using educational ROC or PE here. Scientex is well known of earning decent profit on its property business, even tough revenue of property sector only contribute around 20-30%, its can contribute 50-70% bottomline. Looking at how thin its profit margin on plastics manufacturing (below 10%), i argue Scientex expansion into higher value chain is bearing any fruits, for now. I am not criticising Scientex for over consolidate the FFP industry or diversify into property developer, nor blaming tguan for focusing their immutable business. In fact, tguan try few little steps which fail (organic noodles, opening healthy meal restaurants and etc) but their target to hit one billion market cap between 2019-2021 is not completely unrealistic and nonsense, in my opinion. They calculate in with their overall output of 220,000tonnes (basically in line with expectations) with overall market price predicted which can convert into 1.5billion revenue. But they fail to predict the compressed margin and market price for these products, which market cycle may reverse either way i do not know. But with recent polyethylene and polypropylene price depressing and local region flooded with new supply, plastics packaging industry should benefit theoretically. They are in position getting relief on compressed margins, while still expanding on capacity to snatch market on export earning stronger usd. Earning follow by?

short term, plastics packaging industry might be beneficiary. longer term, pchem will do well in my opinion...they are not relying merely on pp or pe.

operating expenses for Q4 is manipulated by magic hands? they should have at least disclose some details...

my answer is no, period. But if you are looking at share price as capital gain as purpose then good lucks. yes, 咸鱼也可以翻身

Anyone know how much these smart meters and their solution cost? Who are their main competitors and how their products stand out among?

I don’t think anyone can be a successful prophet or weather forecaster trying predicting share price. Longer term, only consistent growth of the business can cushion impact of risk.

there's valuable information beneath the press release...

I am very tempting to take profitl this armada, but my greed doesn’t let me to. LOL

Philip, you have pointed out very valuable considerations that I have doubted since ipo. You are right to say MI is in a position that they have not yet gained full acceptance. In fact, they are a dark horse in this very competitive game and they only focus on top tier clients. It’s not that easy for these top tier clients to even try out new supply chains machines. But now they see opportunities from current slowdown of semiconductor industry due to us-China trade war. Before they move into new bayan lepas factory, they can produce around 40 machines a month which normally they reach peak capacity, now with the fund they raised from ipo the newly constructed factory can produce 45 more machines per month.

The tax free incentives of semicon industry especially those in Penang are inevitable facts that they used to enjoy to compete. I do not know how these machines perform in details compare to best machines peers produce in market as I am not from this industry, but I did ask few engineers that work as MI clients (cant disclose) and they said these machines are comparable if not better than previous bought from company ****, and its in-house made which kinda impressing. Price vs quality is often two major issue in any business but in my own opinion, it’s minor in semiconductor business especially top tier players which MI is selling to. Having said that, management is very optimistic with their own products and capability and said that’s the reason they want to increase capacity by double and more are coming through baru kawan factory. I do not know how to value it’s very long term competitive advantage of its business as miti tax free and most importantly how their products can compete can change over time. But short to mid term, it’s business is in very interesting position that they might snatch some piece if not big slice of cake from the existing market by penetrating their new series machines. And some have already pointed out that recent us-china tech war have created a new supply chain in China and MI might be one of the beneficiaries.

definitely not willing to share so much for free as valuation is still so cheap now if you know what i mean. good lucks everyone

Because of different value chain Vitrox is not competing with Mi, Mi is competing with international players like ASM, Besi and etc..

Yes, their vi, si, ai and li are pending for clients acceptance. Basically, vitrox and mi are not really competing each other so far. But I do heard vitrox and penta are mi’s indirect customer.

Monetary, I think you need to understand so far MI results only mi series are contributing... assembly & packaging equipments. For testing and vision equipments are only adding on in near future (they already have those series prepared). Vitrox in the other hand is the leader of testing & vision equipments in malaysia and competing with quite a numbers of players in local already. I am only describing the very broad view of what they doing.. the real insight left you guys to dig into

qqq3, although vitrox and mi is selling equipment, vitrox is doing only test & vision equipments. Where else, mi is doing assembly & pacakaging equipments and also test & vision equipments. It’s a huge differences as entry barriers are higher for assembly and packaging players

monetary, vitrox is not doing WLCSP, they only sell testing equipments. They are not exactly in same industry. However, Mi equipment do have some of these testing functions.

philip, welcome to mi forum. Mi basically sells in-house wafer level chip scale packaging die sorting machines to OSATs and IDMs players. Their upcoming 4 more machines series including those capabilities like testing, inspecting, bonding, recontructing and etc. Currently their clients are mostly top tier players, Mi is current leader by far in malaysia, competing with japanese and european players.

市场底迷时静静等傻瓜犯错

Calvin tan is one of the greatest legendary investors in i3, follow by stockraider and Leno. Their extraordinary talents make them very rich and earn a lot of money even their holdings counters experience share price downside. So when they heavily promote any counters, never ever forget we are not talented as our i3 legend Calvin. So don’t try to be one.

the eparking system need more than 115million to build, and they need another 20million to upgrade Mypay. How they fund is an issue, i am more concerned with how they execute especially with their past track records

continue adding at RM6.80 yummy

ok, i bought some GKENT at around 1.03 for little exposure on construction. couldn't find a better deal from other construction counters. lrt3 definitely still coming. I have seen some sifus said turnkey could be better than PDP, frankly the ceo said in AGM profit margin will be lesser in turnkey model. i gonna see how they execute turnkey compare to PDP model very soon.

serba, armada and mi... wow nice portfolio you have there

i noticed they have refinance their short term borrowings too

But quite a hint, it’s a bad result. Stanley ah Stanley

RM88 or 88sen next tuesday only will know...

excellent company

good results...

its better not to issue bonus issue yet now, suggest when reach RM4 only split. Most people still don't know what Mi is capable

to be honest Rm3 is too low for mi

Add more exposure as much as I could

maybe Q4 is a bomb as usual again like previous years....

forex gain of 400million this quarter?? where you get this data probability sifu?

Posted by probability > 13/08/2019 2:05 PM | Report Abuse X
exclude forex gain, eps below 9 cents

i am very impressed with the stable high margin it has. it proved its moat is still there.

Hehe so many forecast predictors now...

Investorking suddenly turn bullish on armada, seriously?