... there is more downfall to come from the oil and gas sector, do not for one think that a bear can come and leave in a matter of couple of weeks... and beware of the "teasers" which will make it look market is on the rebound... caution : dont be fooled by the fools... :-)

Another way is to calculate the BE (breakeven) point rather than the discount/premium as one will not realise the magnitude of the discount/premium.... going back to myoswee's case (good job :-) the breakeven is

= Exercise Price - (Purchase Price x Exercise Ratio) = 1880 - (0.155 x 667) = 1,777; which means if u buy the put warrant at $0.155 your breakeven point is KLCI at 1,777 (any value below this level - at maturity - you are positive).

This is european style, so only settled at expiry and not earlier... so tough. Few days back the wa was trading at 8.5c, it had a breakeven of 1,823.

beware of the time lag that the warrant carries.... sometimes there may be a sudden increase in KLCI, but the wa will not move much and then next day ....drops

in a bear market... all benchmarks and target price go out the window... whats left is NTA, hope and pray price does not dip this floor... :-(

conversion price is 51cents. Today warrant is down 4.5c closing price 10.5cents, and mother share at 53.5cents. If mother share move up 1oc to 63.5cents, then about 100% gain on warrants.... oh wow

everyday.... is a good day to buy :-( wish can short....

tan kw.... u shd consider options. I dont deal in options and futures... but i have to read about them in order to pass my CFA exams this Dec .. errrrgh. But in options, one does not need to tie down capital like what is done in shares.... and you can punt either ways, call - up or put - down... so in any market condition is a good time to buy and sell. The best part about options are .... the most you can lose is how much? well... zero... because you choose NOT to exercise the option, and your loss is purely limited to the option cost.... transaction cost. Just a thot....

the last recession in 2008/9 was due to crude oil shooting up the roof... today crude brent is on its way south.... with US potentially turning into a net exporter by 2017... the world economy shd see it as a sign of good times.... to prosper with low energy cost.... but the market is made up of whom? People like us..... who are equally lost.... so there u go :-)

since u guys punt sumatec.... you shd perhaps consider futures and options. All have similar criteria..... gambling :-)

Options are the best..... the most you can lose is guess what.... zero. Yup... zero... coz u have the option NOT to exercise, and you only lose the call option price.... or if you feel price will go down, put option price. Minimum upfront..... and unlimited upside (for call). Whereas for sumatec.... you have to sink in the whole capital (worse if you borrow part and sink in as well).... and then wait and wait.... sometimes to kingdom come ....

no mudslinging in futures/options... as its purely technical; only draw back is it has expiry date (which is also good as you don need to sink capital and wait till kingdom come :-)

I dont mean to say anything negative here.... but just considering the alternatives.... any comments?

Hi @maggiel.... thanks for the guidance, I didn't know the calculation is that easy :-) yes makes sense.... so breakeven price ex-both rights and bonus is RM1.8575, and current loss will be RM0.35/share.
The report mentions that the rights were issued at 32% discount to the trading prices then, so where did this discount vanish off to? :-O Is it included in the RM0.35/share? Does it mean that assuming the rights were issued originally at no discount, then the loss today will be more than RM0.35/share?

Rights issue at 32% discount = RM1.32; assuming there were no discount, rights would have been RM1.94/share? right

can someone help calculate the theoretical ex-rights ex-bonus shs price of armada? Which were each one-for-two basis. Assuming that we start off with a price of RM3.04 closing on the day the announcement was made. Rights price was placed at RM1.32/share.

Reports state that the TERP (theoretical ex-right price) for the rights at RM1.32 is RM1.98 (don know how they calculated this), but is this before or after the bonus issue?

If I include bonus issue, can I assume the ex-all price to be at RM1.32 (1.98x3/2)...

If the above is correct, does it mean those who bought the shs at RM3.04 are "in the money"?

brent has direct impact on upstream O&G, indirect impact on all O&G companies... and further impact on macroeconomics of the world economies.... does anyone here know whats brent at now? It hit all 3 year low just last week.... and this i say are early tell-tale signs...

as for armada, they keep showing healthy quarter profits.... so I dont see the project failures?

solid counter..... qtr in qtr out profit..... current P/E at 12 times, down from high of 30 times in 2012.... sooo itching to go in at 1.52.... errrrgh (will brent go further down.... thats the big Q?)

OMG.... what happen to skpetro? was there any negative news or sentiment? all analyst value this counter at RM5 minimum...

the "koay" connections.... I like ur enthusiasm... so whats the game here, is there a specific news we waiting for? sp div, takeover? i feel itchy to get back to my beloved skpetro... :-)

im just worried.... company will depress any news forthcoming, and after 3 working days.... contra players will dump... and back to square 1 :(

guys... i work in the oil and gas sector in Qatar. Our concentration here is mainly on exploration & production company rather than oil and gas services companies, who skims margin. But is skpetro into upstream production as well? This seems to be 1 counter where all analysts have TP well well above what it has traded for over a year. Why so bullish on valuation, I dont know? Where I am at..... PE ratio's of 15 is already respectable and if it goes up to 18-19... institutional players will bring it down to reality... malaysia i think is lain cerita... so shd I go in NOW to beli beli... :-)

i just bot at 86.5c lots and lots and hope that this forex loss issue - which shd be temporary - will boil over, my target is only RM1.00 which I feel is not too difficult looking at the revenue growth..... but I cud be wrong though :)

...end the road for Lion Cor :( regularization or de-listing

new way for politicians to make some money....buy using govt money (or govt guaranteed bonds) and then list... simple mathematics

guru... KC Loh, do u think its ripe time to pick up sapura kencana? i think 3.69 sounds kinda right.... don u think? Or are there any other "beaten-up" stocks to also consider? cheers ...

thx KC... so biggest cost is fuel, and it has a RM17K return per plane per transit... and with brent targeted to go lower so there is an upside then... i guess, how about AAX?

hey KC & the sunshine band.... :) and people, this is an interesting read... SEA is really the growth area if you ask me, 11 countries with combined population of over 650m, so Tony is spot on on his target market... but AA's debt is going to surely pose an uphill task ... assuming a simple 7% interest charge on 10b debt is already 700m outflow on financing charges alone...

http://www.qe.com.qa/pps/qe/qe%20english%20portal/Pages/Home/

anyone interested can chk this site out....

kc loh.... if im senator then you must be dewan negara speaker ...heeee, still gpiong strong I see... and fending off violent criticisms along the way... keep it up buddy :-)

hahaha.... busy busy but since its ramadan so taking a break. You guys shd trage in the qatar stock exchange, I think they will go nuts. There is only about 60 counters and all with standard financial year end and standard par value etc... so analysis is so easy, and there are no warrants. So purely capital gain and dividend play... and general growth is about 20% every year... even i fyou close ur eyes and pick a stock.

my question... why buy a warrant when its at a premium even if its 1%? Shouldn't we just seek out warrants trading at discount, or better seek out mother shares with good prospects moving forward? Or is this valuation technique purely for warrant traders?

Interesting thread... all interesting players are here, hi kc loh... and godo reviews by OTB keep it up

KC.... MPHB a good buy? even after the listing of MPHB Cap? which will be beter buy... the original holding co with the gaming business or the new Cap co to be listed that wil hold the non-core assets?

sold all :) and releaved mysel fof all the suspense and tension... and move on

the time has arrived :)

support supermax.... everybody pls go out there are buy a box of condoms.... p/s : they make condoms too right?

i feel bad hoping for the birdflu virus to spread.... which will represent an impetus for the glove companies share prices to rise... can someone provide a positive angle on this

wtf.... its kossan and topG on the roll, when will it be supermax time? :(

yup totally agreed.... but as the saying goes no pain, no gain :)

EPF may have certain limits on sectors or counters, for example is it targets only 1% on rubber sector, and if it has accumulated topglove or others.... then it needs to let go supermax, or other institions cud actually be buying from EPF... there can be many scenarios not easy to speculate... or some players are strategizing to supress the price further... before going in for a big buy... anyway, thats my take

jom oppa ubah style...

looking at EPF's disposal positively... i think it opens a window for retailers to step in, EPF may have other strategies and may be doing rebalancing etc.... but company fundamentals are strong, research brokerage all point to 1 direction, and peers have shown trends.... i think thats sufficient data for an investment decision, dont u think? I dont mean profits in matter of days, but timeframe of say 1-2mths... oops 2.03 support broken...

thx passerby :) and golden-chicken - just worried may miss out on the uptrend like what happened to topglove, where there was a single day hike.... also there seem to be some support at 2.03 level...

accumulated some at 2.03 wish me luck :)

Its a GLC counter.... and syed mokhtar's call. He has already privatised the palm oil company under his stable. But DRB Hicom I guess will be too big for privatisation...

what re-structuring? i thot it was going to be privatisation? LOL...

sory I think I mis-communicated the answer. When I say 35% gain, it was AFTER the "wholesale" of shares.... warrants are such that once you accumulate and notionaltarget price is hit, youy sell ....sell all and run.

Then you go back to the drawing board and start working on another new fresh warrant, that is possibly trading in discount or potential discount. I have another too ... gamuda-wd, but I dont think I will see the light of day on this... unless some massive progress is made on the new LRT project. Breakeven will be good enuf.... even for ijm-wc.

LOL... yes, quite naturally in hope of a repeat transaction, with averaging out cost approach. Funny thing is that it only needs a few heavy trading days and nudge to see the returns... and the ur off to the drawing board again.

ur right tempus_veiros > opportunity loss on dividends and other gains just too big. But I did make some handsome sum doing similar on ijmplant-wa... where returns was more than 35%. I guess warrants are a riskier game than mother shares... an if ur bet is right pays handsomely otherwise... its a drop, with zero income on dividends; not to mention an expiry date for warrants !!!

i have loads with a cost of 1.55 sitting for more than a year now :(

545 days more to go before expiry of ijm-wc.... any suggestion on what to do meantime? palm oil prices have begin to pick up but no signs of improvement on ijm shares... converting to mother shares is a NO GO... as too high cash outlay RM4 for each share... hmmm

... no one will die (not from a curse at least), people will contunue to gamble and go on cruises, election will come and go, BN will still retain right to rule.... and the sun will reise and set everyday.. so just chill people :)

privatisation is only by largest shareholder (unless im wrong) and that wud be EPF... and why wud EPF wanna privatise MBSB?

yah why gen-m keeps falling... inching downwards even when market is up??