我大半生都不走捷徑，做實業，發明，自己去賣東西，一年增長個百分之三十吧！可是啊，在股票炒一炒就幾千幾萬幾十萬，真的很過癮！

Happy new year. Keep us update, thanks.

I wonder why isn't any update on AAC sale as this is the deadline.

Expect another 80c-150c appreciation before end of feb.

我覺得這一波（連漲四天了吧）還沒有結束，來週收到特別股息的朋友肯定會帶來支持力量。

然後農曆新年前再來一波漲潮，業績出爐前泰國業績肯定標青以及乘載率數據等又來一波漲潮。

這一輪的業績肯定是超好的。其實通常第三季到第四季之間通常都會漲不少，主因當然是季度從最弱轉最強，股票漲也是自然。

這一輪業績超好的原因是，一、營運通過效率提升達到了新高度，那些用掌上機器描票、自助行李、大數據維修等都會在這一季業績集中大爆發（其實上一季季報已見端倪）。二、賣飛機肯定會完成。之前訂十月三十一日完成AAC，因為有五架飛機還沒有搞定，所以目標限期延後到明天。基本上還是要完成AAC之後再發特別股息的。可能管理層擔心股東等得太久，就發一部份給股東爽一下。三、預期的力量是一種有力的暗示！Expectation！特別股息發了四毛，股價又漲回去了！這是包贏！把資金放在這，無得輸！

最後，希望各位把心思放在分析、分享資訊、分享快樂，別一見面就吵架！丟人呢！

能夠算出那一支會勝出，才是高手。

是孟晚舟。

生在文明社會、讀過聖賢書的人，怎麼想都不會明白為什麼華為硬要買美國的東西再轉賣給伊朗。

晚清時期，我們讀中史都說是列強要打開中國大門賣鴉片，卻不知清廷隨意殺害外國人對文明世界造成的恐懼。

兩種文明的衝突終究會到決戰的時刻，但卻不是現在，再拖個兩三年再來一次大的，嗚呼哀哉！

Ya, PH already disturbed Petronas and all the petrol stations.

For the past year or so Airasia did many things operationally, we can all see expenses going down sharply as a percentage of revenue.

Few years ago you can see Airasia gives away free seats, now seats are all filled so they giveaway BIG POINT or Discount on airfare. Give away free seats makes load factor looks good artificially, but now no need that already.

The next QR will see Airasia's effort turns into result, with tons of profit and cash.

Shrobin, yup, January always strong. Because Q3 is the weakest and Q4 is the strongest. Also, this year even stronger due to expectation of another SD.

newinvestor17, if you already sold then you go other place to play lah.

Most shareholders seem not yet buy more, come on! Waiting for you on monday.

freetospeak, then borrow more from your wife. Still can credit from your wife....

newinvestor17, yes, the pullback, but would have been RM3.4 already. hehe

Ala, should give price target RM5 at least.

Guys, this is a democratic society, so noob and pro also have a say. Make money or loser also can talk cock. Lol

Volume traded 88,889 so far, miss a little bit. Which noob bought 1 lot just now??!! Lol

wayne23, still cheap bah. At RM3 still a 8% yield stock (excluding special dividend of course).

By the time of QR4, should go beyond RM4.

If you know how to use TA correctly, trend is a long long line, not a zig-zag one.

The analysts are making a (big) mistake by assuming a 40% payout of Special Dividend. For two reasons, one, the AACs deal hasn't been complete yet. two, TF already said its a 100% payout. three, I am sure TF and MK would like to use the SD money to pay off their debts (the PP and I bet TF also lost their bets on soccer and F1, and/or Tune Hotels). four, Airasia really doesn't need that much cash for operation.

What's up next?

28 Dec, SD cash in. Maybe existing shareholders can scope up additional tens of millions of shares.

31 Dec, AAC extended deadline.

So, expect more excitement and buy more.

Huat lah!!!!

Naturally it will go back to RM3.1 ex-dividend.

Huat lah!!!!

Congratulations!!!!

Tomorrow RM1.3b dividend money will be deposited to shareholders' account. Assuming RM3 per share and 10% of the money will be used to buy more airasia shares, that will be about 40m shares to be purchased.

Huat lah!!!!! Haha

RM4 by end of Feb 2019.

Huat lah!!!!

Finally breaks rm2.78.

Look up to rm2.90 soon.

Airasia bought the planes much cheaper than others because of the volume discount (and good negotiation skill and ability to collaborate). Now AirAsia is in the business of selling planes, like a dealer of AirBus.

Budahsaham, if you are really concern about leasing, then you should know that the leasing agreement is for the period of one year only, to smooth the transition.

I try to control myself not to scold people.

If this HL analyst assume net profit margin of 6%, then 2019 should make RM150m profit and even more in 2020.

9M2018 profit already 100m. Why this analyst expect full year profit to be 71.3m?

Its hard not to scold people most of the time.

我國的報社都是這樣的，無知、盲從。來了就登，基本加減都沒有查證。所以南洋這樣也無可厚非。我以前當編輯的時候也是這樣，也沒資格批評。這個國家，真是讓人失望啊！

pBlue, in the worst year and weaker quarter, Airasia still make RM300m operating profit when oil was much higher.

Do not mistake there are still companies making money and expand during recession. Not all the stock's share price drop during recession.

Yes, there are risk. But we can see Q4 is still very good. And upcoming Q1 still good. Management guidance also confirm that.

Malindo losses 500m??? (correct me if i am wrong). MAS? i bet even worse. I won't be surprised to see Malindo further shrink or disappear in 2019. Competition wise Airasia has been doing great!!!

Also, when recession comes, cash is king. Airasia just happened to be the (second) richest cash king in Bursa.

I try to control myself not to scold people.

If this analyst assume net profit margin of 6%, then 2019 should make RM150m profit and even more in 2020.

9M2018 profit already 100m. Why this analyst put 71.3m?

Its hard not to scold people most of the time.

我國的報社都是這樣的，無知、盲從。來了就登，基本加減都沒有查證。所以南洋這樣也無可厚非。我以前當編輯的時候也是這樣，也沒資格批評。這個國家，真是讓人失望啊！

This Mr. Ooi doesn't seem to learn from his mistakes.

You guys could donate to my project.

My project will
i. Solve global warming.
ii. Heal Cancer, Diabetes and Heart problems etc
iii. Heal Homosexual.

So-called Charity just drag on, doesn't solve any problem. My project is the real charity.

Tomorrow starts with RM3.

BRENT USD50.

Huat lah!!!!!

I am so sorry, not big ang pau.

We just hit the jackpot.

Merry Christmas to shareholders of Airasia, Tony Fernandes, MK and all Allstars of Airasia.

Few more days shall see AAC completing.

Completing in 12 months. So, expect another SD in March 2020.

Was no.2 cash king, on the way to becoming no.1 cash king in Bursa.

Yes, Panic King.

Castlelake, another big ang pau. Yappi!

Huat lah!!!!

I wish to join.

中興、華為真的有本事，就別買美國的芯片。真不明白中國人到了今時今日，兩三百年過去了，還是那樣不知進退，不知廉恥，嗚呼，連我自己也罵進去了！

現在看貿易戰，看中國隨意擄人，到處去恐嚇別國，強詞奪理，有點明瞭當年的八國聯軍是什麼回事？當年打仗都是因為中國抓別人的傳教士，但我們自己宣揚的歷史卻是他國覬覦我中華財富、逼迫開放。其實中國當年哪有什麼財富，只有苦百姓而已！

隨意擄人絕對使不得，跟朝鮮有什麼區別？

Say something.....

So if you were in school, say economics or finance school, the lecturer will tell you a famous story which everyone heard of. A finance teacher asks a group of students to value an unknown company, using all kinds of ratios, using all kinds of valuations. Since the unknown company has very little asset, lots of debt, very limited product range, and pay very high dividend, so like everyone gave a ridiculously low valuation to the unknown company.

It turns out that unknown company was The coca cola company. The students were provided with real financial statements.

The ratios, the valuation methods are just part of a huge checklists.

On the other hand, Peter Lynch says you must have a story to tell before you make an investment. Business sense is there to tell us, on top of ratios and valuation methods, is the management doing the right thing? Is management rational? Is management working to enhance shareholders' value?

I recalled when Mr. Koon was talking about business sense, he said some company had higher payable, higher inventory, lower cash, higher expenses etc was merely a temporary phenomena, in fact that is a signal for business booming. I think this is a great piece of intellectual insight and great business sense.

On the contrary, a failed example would be Xingquan. I already wrote many times. 1. According to local news report, there are less than 100 workers in the factory (as opposed to 3000 reported by Mr. Koon). 2. The self operating store addresses are fake. 3. The shoes are not selling at Parkson. Things like that can be easily checked online or just going to one of the point of sale, but those who invested never go to check.

No, no, no, Mr. Chong, don't take it down.

When you are speaking the truth, don't be shy. We need more investment education in Malaysia.

In a stock drama, saying 有邊個知道自己買嘅係乜？ really reflect the situation. We have too many just don't know what they are doing. Even most so-called "sifu"s are only copy and paste. Our analyst can't even get the PE right most of the time.

That is provocative! Lol

Again, you spell Sailang wrong.

I wonder why so many people didnt watch “God of Gambler” and yet keep on Sailang.

Carry, you continue feed for twenty more years.

經典都是過去，我們的未來又會是怎樣呢？

就以下棋為例，幾百年的經典還是敵不過人工智能！但是人工智能得到的結論，一部份還是與經典相符！

如果華為真那麼牛，就不用靠美國芯片，孟晚舟就不會被抓啦！

在商言商，華為可是簽了協議的，可偏偏還敢賣給伊朗，被抓是活該！

Everyday buy buy buy till no money liao.

Say something....

Oil down 5% again, probably save Airasia at least 300m per quarter, another exciting day tomorrow.

CIMB needs to revise its target price to look less like an idiot.

10 more days, the extended deadline for AAC completion.

Will the USD800m sale of 30 aircrafts be announced in Jan?

Many hundred millions and billion we are talking about, huat lah!!!!

是咯

There goes qqq3 and icon8888.... lol

KLCI sideway? What kind of brain is this?

好像很水咧！

I hope he continue to cry everyday. So that when he sells, I buy.

By the way, I learned that egg production of the affected subsidiary only resume in feb/mar, still a long way to go.

Buy back, almost all in in Airasia again.

Oil down, like that very much. Wait for the great Q4.

Huat lah!!!!

文章太長，沒有讀完。

所謂波段操作有時是成立的。只要有能夠確定的某些時候成立，那波段操作就成立了。

成立的理由，
其一、消息。學界稱之為「News Effect」。消息其實是一種信號，學界稱之為Signaling。當消息一出來，大部份人都對之有一種共同的判斷，那我們就有大部份都投YES的時候了。比如說要盈利上漲的五種情況。

其二、我們不知道股票會上漲多少，但是我們知道股票會上漲的時機（Timing）以及時間段。自然界中都有Pecking order，就是先後秩序的階級，人也有，人買股票也有。比如說亞航要發特別股息，有先知先覺第一時間就買進的人，也有上升了一段時間後才買進的人，也有等別人都賺翻了才買進的人，也有下跌後才接刀的人，以及再次抄底的人。

其三、對於人心的判斷。在學界這叫Complex Adaptive System。股市的個人存在一種互動的關係。比如說KYY一開始買的時候，很多人認為這是一個很好的信號，結果一窩蜂買進。慢慢市場學會了KYY投的股最後都會下跌，結果持有的時間越來越短。又例如很多博客「師傅」點股都輸得脫褲子之後，現在市場流行所謂借多多Diversify買藍籌的課程，爆炸以後就少有人再Subscribe了。

其四、對於人心的判斷。一些人沒有耐性，再加上投行有很多開戶方式是鼓勵短炒的。結果股票不會動，就自然會下跌。

rajachulan 說得有水準。

想補充巴菲特的功夫遠不止此，當然很多人都知道這一點。其實巴菲特其一可貴之處在於白手興家。