Yeah, and Kajang buy-election only Mar 23 or thereabouts. More than a 'few' weeks to settle!

Puncak going up and up....!

Yeah WTK also good. Almost pure timber play. Current price RM1.28/share. It just planted OP and have about 12,800 ha, acquired since 2008. Nothing like the hectarage of JTiasa.

@teyo, yeah you are right. Still mystery asto 'new listing purpose'. Did Hap Seng issue 'new listing'?

For me this read like the Fed Govt is pressuring Khalid to cough up more. The sword over Khalid's head is more 'water shortages', especially with the current drought and the Kajang by-election. If Fed Govt take over under WSIA, it will have to cough up the extra to satisfy Puncak.

I suspect that there will be a shock dissolution of the state assembly when Pek Moh sees the Governor and snap state slections. Taib will ascend the governorship before the election so that whoever takes over as CM will just be a caretaker CM. His son Bekir will stand in Balingian. After the elections, his son will be sworn in as CM by Pek Moh as govenor. Let's see if I am correct.

@digiuser016, thanks for your analysis. Very useful. That's why I like Puncak O&G as well.

@suz99, I managed to retrieve haikeyila's post as follows: 'it' mean as in 'purpose' and 'they' means Hap Seng.
it means they:
i) have excess cash
ii) have confidence in their own business
iii) believe their stock is undervalued
iv) wish to increase EPS
v) reduce public float (thus increasing share price)

@haikeyila at the rate you are investing, I would not be surprised if you already have lots of diamonds round your neck and in the bank safe deposit box. But sincere roses...? I bet even HJey will have difficulty getting those, even with his money or should it be because of his money?

Nothing new there. @L.C.Chong, I gathered in your blog that you are new to OP operations? Also JTiasa has Timber and plywood production - both likely hot due to Japan's reconstruction after Tsunami. Kim Loong, according to its web-site, is a pure OP counter.

I would also like to know purpose. @haikeyila, sweetie, do you know purpose?

Great! I wanna be first to ngajat with the Baligals at RM2.50 per ngajat!

@digiuser016, some have valued PUNCAK's O&G at RM1.80/share. But it's the future business that matters i.e. the contracts awarded to GOM - but this is just a continuation of its previous services with Petronas. So Barakah (current price: RM1.8/share) is a good conservative comparison. But Puncak made a loss in O&G in the 9 months ended 30th Sept 2013. It made losses in the 1st (-RM8.4 million) and 3rd quarter (-RM14.6 million) and profit in 2nd quarter (+RM12.5 million). Maybe 3rd quarter loss was due to contract revenue that came in too late but related expenditure recognised in 3rd quarter. If I have enough time, I could analyse it's revenue and expenditure further; however I will leave it for the moment.

I have browsed through its accounts available in Bursa and its web-site. The increase in non-current assets (fixed assets) is mainly due to restatement of investment values in Syabas in accordance with MFRS10 - but this affects only it's financial assets. I can't find any significant increase in capital expenditure (plant and equipment) that could point to an expansion of it's O&G business. No clues in it's non-current liabilities either. Will have to wait for it's full year accounts 2013 and/or announcement to Bursa.

The new CM WILL carry on with SCORE development. He will be just a puppet on a string until Pek Moh passes on.

@digiuser016, the operating expenses were incurred, not allocated for the O&G segment for the 9 month period ending 30th Sep 2013. This means that for the 9 month period, the O&G segment incurred a loss of RM10.6 million. The water business still carried the day for PUNCAK, making a profit of RM365.8 million resulting in an overall profit before tax for Puncak of RM241.2 million. To gauge the future of the PUNCAK's O&G business, one need to look at the 1) contracts awarded to GOM the wholly owned subsidiary and 2) Capital expenditure allocated for business expansion.

But he will be a king with power because he controls PPB and the Fed Govt through his 25 MPs!

Yea, Baligals will come a-ngajating, and up goes the price. RM2.5 to ngajat with the Baligals!

Here comes the big push! Hope it does not become pussssss..!

Of course buy now @ <RM2.80. Risk is always yours though!

Then just hope Koon will play his part well.

All sides play hard-ball because of 'ng kau sui'. In the end the taxpayer will pay for all. I will bet on Puncak to gain since the CEO is well-connected and hold his connections' purse-strings in Selangor!

JTiasa is heading North according to the charts. If I am not wrong, rough cup and handle formed. Hope Koon keep his mouth shut on the powers-that-be. Or say something nice about them.

At RM1.20? Wow, great buying opportunity. I hope you are right! I want to make at least a million bucks like OTB!

Yap. Follow!

No need five years. I think it will be fast. As SPAN said 'ng kau sui' overall under Khalid. Khalid likely to change fast before Anwar made it 'kau sui' overall. And with the help of the Fed Govt.

SPAN said 'not enough water' or 'ng kau sui'.

The key points in the article: 1) State could pay more, but for higher tariffs; 2) if Fed Govt pays more, also higher tariffs(!?). My analysis:1) higher tariffs need not be if depreciation over longer period; also Selangor surplus can subsidise although unnecessary and politically risky. 2) Depends on how Fed Govt pays, if as a subsidy or grant, no higher tariffs; if as loan, then higher tariffs, but not logical as loan. My bet: Both Fed Govt, State and Puncak will compromise on quantum and Fed and State will compromise to pay the new quantum. Result: Puncak and concessionaires will receive >RM9.65B.

It's HAPSENG-WA; STOCK CODE: 3034WA

I don't know what you mean by 'active'; it's being traded very actively. However, for warrants, they follow the mother share price up or down plus a premium or minus a discount base on their conversion price. No need to chart warrants.

Napolean will do the impossible!

I luv you haikeyila! Oops, I mean I love Hap Seng and the buy back!

If Pek Moh remains head of PPB, effectively he can replace the new CM at will. Besides, old habits die hard (e.g. Tun Dr Mahathir). So he will exercise veto power effectively at will. Let's see if he give up as head of PPB.

Whether Pek Moh really relinquish power even as titular head depends on whether he relinquish control of the ruling party PPB. If he remains as head of PPB, it means he is still in power and the new CM will be under his control. If so, we should accumulate and wait for the Baligals to ngajat up the price!

Even if Anwar wins, Puncak also benefit big time. Fed Govt has said it will exercise section 114 of WSIA to takeover. With this, even fixing water tariffs and licensing will be under SPAN and not Selangor. Nothing Anwar can do about that. After Fed took control, Anwar's final triumph card is to withhold approval for Langat2 which is the prize for the Fed Govt's backers. This was also Khalid's triumph card BUT he weakened his hand with his letter of commitment to the Fed Govt on Langat2 with conditions. Anwar can get out by retracting Khalid's letter, but he will pay a political price which to my mind may be unacceptable. But with the Fed Govt's control over the water concessionaires and the arbitrary power it has under WSIA, they will also get Langat 2. That's why LGE quietly surrender Penang's water assets and made it seem like a stroke of financial genius! Perak also followed suit using the same strategy i.e. in return for reduction of state debt owed to the Fed Govt!

Why has the Fed Govt not done so to date to Selangor i.e. arbitrarily takeover by exercising section 114 of WSIA? That's because of the political price it will have to pay if it foist its authority under WSIA's section 114 on Selangor by fiat before GE13 and in its aftermaths. But if Khalid and/or Anwar can be made to be blamed for it, the Fed Govt will not hesitate to do so. That's why the maneuvering even before GE13. Today, in the eyes of the electorate, the ball is in Khalid's/Anwar's court and also because of perception of fiscal incompetence (e.g. blind accumulation of surplus without spending to benefit the people of Selangor - the objectives of public finance being very different from corporate and private finance! Again LGE did differently in Penang - he implemented a deficit budget that will result in a small surplus due to efficiencies in actual spending.). Therefore the Fed Govt's hand is politically free to takeover!

The fundamentals for Puncak is intact and improved with the O&G contracts to GOM. It still have SYABAS and its water processing licences not yet officially cancelled. Share investing is all about buying into good fundamentals and not going with the fear of the crowd. But one must have holding power and good nerves if the facts are for holding and accumulating. My below price is RM2.5 ('below lower' was a typo error; should be just 'lower'), although I think it's unlikely it will go that low. If the fundamentals are good, don't take loss by selling due to fear. Hold and trade other stocks instead.

The key is still SYABAS which owns the water distribution system. Who ever owns the license to draw and process water will still have to distribute it and would have to spend many billions to duplicate the piping system if it want to bypass SYABAS. This will be a waste of resources besides there being no time for it. Anwar will likely do what LGE did in Penang and come to an accommodation with the Fed. Govt and PUNCAK and allow Langat 2 to proceed. The present cooperative attitude between UMNO/BN and PR also augurs well for a good deal all round. Delay will ultimately not be good politics for PR. I will continue to hold; also because of the O&G business. I will accumulate if it goes below lower.

Dow is irrational - US recovering, Yellen will not taper, China still growing and services sector growth made up for manufacturing. In M'sia, only worry is the rudderless govenment! Baligals will come in medium term! Better than FD anytime!

@optimusprime, we will see! If Puncak goes down 50%, I will accumulate amd accumulate! Haha!

Time to sheath our claws. Hopefully he learns his lesson well. The Hapseng directors may still make the lesson hard for him since they have a strong case of defamation, their reputations being sullied in writing in a social forum. Calvintaneng should go into water for a while.

Hold babies hold! Or accumulate if it goes lower, say RM2.8. The offer (still open) by the MB has established a base-line value for its water assets. Add in the O&G business and you can see that Puncak is very much under valued. The dancers can't dance by themselves much longer due to impatience by their backers. The dancers must interact with audience soon, hopefully with golden kisses for all the audience (Puncak shareholders and backers).

Kalau ayam, akhir nya tentu kena potong makan; tetapi mesti tunggu sampai jadi cukup gemok. CNY akan datang!

Calling names OK. But yours are very specific and serious criminal allegations that are defamatory if untrue. And you did finger the directors of Hapseng directly. Likely they will go for you. You are easily traceable even if your name is not really calvintaneng! Only way you can escape is if you are found fit only for Tanjong Rambutan or if you have not yet reach the age of legal maturity.

@LimTeikBee, haha its all depends on timing friend. This one depends on the dance between Puncak, Selangor MB and Fed Govt! If the deal goes through, I am almost certain it will reach RM4 or thereabouts. That's why I am holding.

@calvintaneng, those are very serious allegations based on hearsay. Some could have already downloaded your comments and could make a report. Too late to erase.

@lepeng85, now is good time. But hold for at least medium term i.e. 3-6 months. Risk is always yours though.

Yeah, including your 'sifu' in Johor, once you finger him as your source of info, which of course he will deny.

@calvintaneng, do not be too deflated by the lady. She meant well. Take leave of your ego, learn from it and give better postings next time. It may multiply your wealth. I myself am still learning.

longterminvest, I think you can easily figure out yourself. There is enough data in the media on the water 'shortage'. Yeah, new MB if Azmin will come in a package. Hint: 'water' shortage as in cantonese!

No problem. But I don't think for long term. The pressure to deal is too great even for both the Fed Govt, Puncak and the MB. The vested interests of each group is pressing for a deal.

I am surprised Robert Kuok's Wilmar sign onto the anti-palm oil lobby which is an extention of the soya bean oil lobby in their fight against CPO for market share in Europe and US. This is only the latest round that have been going on for decades. But I think that Wilmar will just send non-peat CPO to Europe and the rest to China, India and the rest of the world. The reaction from Indonesia and Malaysia will force its hand to back-off. All OP plantations are affected, not just Wilmar.

@dish2, ALL well-run OP plantations have extensive drainage and road systems, regardless of terrain. Yes, even including those on terraced slopes to prevent erosion and land-slides. The only thing 'special' will be the compacting required. But this also applies to non-peat swamps that have been drained. It is a one-off infrastructure expenditure that is capitalised. Flooding will not be any good for OP planted anywhere, but this only affects the fruit harvesting and evacuation. The Oil Palm will not die or become sick. Its FFB production will not fall off. FFB output reduction due to normal yearly flooding is only because the floods delay harvesting of FFB and evacuation to the mills. The plantation managers will implement emergency measures if the floods threatens to stop harvesting and evacuation of more than 3 to 5 days. Plantation management keep meticulous records of rainfall on their plantations. Emergency measures includes drains widening, new temporary roads etc. That's why plantation managers are so highly paid! They are not paid to sit on their back-sides during flooding, unlike our .....!

@slts, young men will become grandpas and uncles in no time at all i.e. if you are blessed with a long enough life. Young men starting out in life i.e. building a career, raising a family and undertaking the necessary social responsibilities should always park some of their savings in OP plantations. Also timber plantations and other medium to longer term stable income generating assets. JTiasa, like IJM before, is a good pick for this purpose. Your money grows with the company. Even RSawit is still good. However, for trading, pick those with good ups and downs in price movements, BUT in an upward trend.

@calvintaneng, for each negative, I can also cited a positive. E.g. the recovery in US, Japan. The increase demand for CPO by India. These will impact Hapseng positively. But what's the point? The economy will adjust to all those factors and may or may not go into recession. But to only look at the downside and not the upside is an exercise in negativity. This, plus you talk so confidently as if you can predict the future 100%. And as in Perak Corp, those who followed your confident pessimism lost a lot of money! But I will give you the credit for recommending Silk Holdings although to my mind, that is a short term trading play.