Hold. I have been holding through thick and thin based on my instincts and Puncak's improving fundamentals. I may even add more. According to the charts, Puncak's GMMA, MACD and RSI are turning bullish though not yet super bullish. However, I would sell well before RM8! I was just being positive.

All parties profess to be working for the 'benefit of the people'. This is the code word to justify using tax-payers' money to close the deal!

Free first 20 cu m of water to KL and Putejaya?! That sounds like the cue for the fed to add incentives to close the deal. The sound of RM8 galloping up is getting louder and louder!

Yeah, somewhere up to max RM4B more!

HapSeng candlestick shows bullish engulfing today. Price is going to shoot up if trend follow chart. Fortunately, I bought more HapSeng warrant!

@iafx. If I remember correctly, the fed offered RM4.04B to cover Syabas' debt. But Puncak wanted compensation for the increase in tariffs that were in the Concessionaires' agreement but was disallowed by kali. Puncak also wanted return on equity based on 15% instead of 12%. It is this difference that will go to arbitration. The immediate requirement to close the deal is the compensation for increase in tariffs to Syabas that were denied. The sweeteners will be in the area of compensation for tariffs denied.

Sweeteners all round!

Very good idea!

My hunch is that there will be sweeteners. Only then 'everybody's happy'.

@iafx. Rubbing nose, ear or looking away means no straight answer.

I saw the KINI TV video of ungwah saying that there was 'no basis' for a sweet-heart deal in the water issue. He was rubbed his nose several times when saying this. Psychologist have discovered that when a person is not giving a straight answer, he/she rubs the nose or touch the ears or look away momentarily. ungwah rubbed his nose and looked away momentarily. My bet: sweet or no sweetheart, a deal is on the way.

Noted. Thanks.

I rest my case. I hope I am wrong.

Seems OK. But downside: 1) No dividend; 2) Property counter - price <30% discount to NTA.

@sangharimau. The directors should not have sold. As I have said above, the retail investors take sales/purchase by directors very seriously. If they are concerned that the rise in price is irrational (and therefore subsequent drop in price resulting in wild fluctuation), they should issue a statement via the Bursa.

Their action degrade their stock to, as ulutrader said, 'hit & run' stock. It will be a tough journey for the directors to re-establish confidence in their stock as an investment grade stock worthy of holding for at least the medium term.

@sangharimau. The sales by the directors caused a panic, since to the retail investors sales by directors are not to be taken lightly. I watched the price slide.

To all concern: Repco, SilverBird, Transmil, etc are examples. Bad or bad-hearted management show their true colours in fleeting flashes. In giving personal advantage to themselves, they usually disadvantage others. By the time they show or their true colours are exposed in full, it's too late as per the above examples. Many really lost their shirts/blouses in those counters. Don't need super-duper management. Just competent and fair management in taking care of all stakeholders. Afterall, the management, including the directors, are paid by the shareholders of the company through the company.

The fundamentals of PUNCAK kept improving with the latest contract.

@tjhldog. I have read JhoLow on insider/directors' selling. I don't agree entirely. But to get the whole picture, one must factor in the behaviour of management - whether they care for the shareholders. From retail investors' point of view, there is no point having a super efficient but heartless management. Many panicked and lost their meager savings during the recent sell-down which also prevented the rise of the share price! Sorry, but I tend to go by the facts.

But recent aggressive sell-down by directors at the expense of retail investors have shaken confidence. They might do it again. No such heartless move by Poh Huat.

@stkoay. It's the style of virtually all politicians, lah. But to gauge impact on stock, have to be careful. Kali may play spoiler as one side hoped. But I think there will be a win-win solution; otherwise queening pawn can't queen.

PKR's Tian Chua said that the STAR report that there is a post-dated resignation letter for Khalid to sign is a lie. No such letter he said.

If with water deal, I can hear PUNCAK @ RM8 galloping up!

PUNCAK creeping up and up. Market reacting to something more than the weather?

For those love-lorn roses and also thorns of this forum, on this Valentine Day, perhaps the following song will help elevate a little, the sense of loneliness, unwantedness and betrayal. Ths song was written by an ex-drug addict who found real freedom and unreserved Love:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Tj2ZHnTu8s

Messrs. 'ng kau sui' coming up to prod kali. Also Kajang pawn queening!

Just a common civil case of torts - personal and should not impact the water issue or its politics. While we are debating issue, PUNCAK is creeping up. Those who bought at RM3 and below are now very much in the money. Those who sold at RM3 and below...........!

Women have no advent cause men are their start and surge,
Not like a river but like a flash flood,
They come with a presence that men cannot ignore,
A fragrance at which men tremble but adore,

They are not roses but roses' beauty embodied,
Nor oceans nor stars, but arouse the same fantasies,
Though they know but need to hear the endearments,
Much, much like the rose of this forum!

God bless you!

EPS of 8 sens will be good - higher than the average of the last 3 quarters.

ting ting diung! a ting ting diung! a ting ting diung!

RM2.33 tak pakai lagi. Baligals terelok. TP baru adalah RM2.50. AMMB tak tahu menghargai kecantikan gadis2 Balingian yang seronok. Penganalisis AMMB sudah nyanyuk bah!

No need people power lah. Just kali and the fed to make it 'kau sui'.

As the love-lorn lady said: HapSeng(the rock of Bursa)!

Ngajat with the Baligals @RM2.50 per ngajat! ting ting diung! ting ting diung!!

Why not try Jesus Christ, the One and only Man?! He is God and can hear all your heart-beats, understand all your real feelings and longings, more than able to meet them all, by your side all the time, available whenever you need Him and so infinitely rich that the riches He can give you will last for all eternity! And all you need to do is to ask and reach out to Him to be the Rock of your life sincerely by faith in prayer.

And not only the state government can facilitate a 'sweet-heart' deal. Fed Govt also can!

It's not one or the other - a zero-sum game. The $$$ backers are backing both sides. One of the is alluded to in the article. They call this hunting with the hounds and running with the hares. Our businessmen are shrewd indeed! And nobility is not part of their equation.

No game reset but end-game. unwah, askme, angno can't fight without $$$$ backers. Kali will be sacrificed like a pawn in the end-game to facilitate another pawn to 'queen' and check-mate. That queening pawn is unwah.

Khalid's irrelevant for the end-game. The pot of gold when check-mate comes is the 'sweet-heart' deal desired by all sides. And PUNCAK is one of the 'sweet-hearts'! I suspect it will finish before Kajang. After all, Khalid also have to safe-guard himself. After the Kajang show, his hands are tied, no longer have the initiative to move things to his advantage!

Cont'd:

By 2014, the deadline for a ‘willing buyer willing seller’ solution to the water industry takeover expired. Using Section 114 of WSIA 2006 means that the federal and state governments would in effect jointly force a takeover of Selangor’s water assets, to be administered by the Selangor government and/or its representatives.

Despite all the other hubris (some propagated by yours truly), it is possible that the single biggest factor that led to Kajangate is the fact that Khalid decided to pursue using Section 114 of WSIA 2006 to resolve this crisis.

Once Section 114 is invoked, the price for any buyout/takeover becomes set by the federal government, and is no longer in the hands of the menteri besar. Any opportunity for the state government to facilitate a sweetheart deal would thereafter be lost.

Dramatis personae

Let’s take a quick look at the four water concessionaires in Selangor: Syabas, Puncak Niaga, Splash and Abbas.

I think there has been enough said about Syabas and its parent company Puncak Niaga. Their case brings to mind some of the worst cronyism and mismanagement the country has ever seen.

Splash is a much smaller water concessionaire, compared to the likes of Syabas, but that doesn’t mean they are small. In the latest buyout offer made by the Selangor government, Splash was valued at RM1.83 billion.

The major shareholders of Splash are: Kumpulan Perangsang Selangor Bhd (a Selangor government-linked company) - 30%, Gamuda (the company some linked to the Perak crisis of 2009) - 40%, and Wan Azmi Wan Hamzah (via Sweet Water Alliance Sdn Bhd) - 30%.

Wan Azmi is one of Daim Zainuddin’s blue eyed boys from back in the day - he has been involved over the years in some of the biggest corporate wheeling and dealing that Malaysia has ever seen - the man is certainly no stranger to multi-billion dollar deals.

Like every intelligent businessman, Wan Azmi seems perfectly happy to play both sides. I don’t think it is a secret that he has been very supportive of PKR and its top leaders over the last few years (one cannot say for sure if he has simultaneously shed his Umno links. In his position, I certainly wouldn’t).

One of the few very ways this support has been visible is through his support of Institut Rakyat, where he is on the board of directors alongside some top PKR leaders, and is possibly its bankroller. It is unclear what or who else in the party he may or may not have financed.

As an aside, I have taken issue with a great many things that blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin has written over the years. Put simply, he has sometimes been very right, and sometimes been very wrong. In relation to this issue, the internal PKR dynamics he describes in this article is in my view inaccurate or at the very least out of date. Readers will have to judge for themselves however, whether what he has written about other people in that article is true.

Suspicious chronology?

At this point, we must tread very carefully. Whatever we may hear on the grapevine, it is of course only ethical not to make baseless accusations.

I don’t think it is unfair to say that if PKR replaces Khalid with a new menteri besar that goes on to approve a sweeter deal for certain water concessionaire owners than the one Khalid proposed, eyebrows may be raised.

The chronology of this entire affair may also make some uneasy.

Khalid decided to accede to pursuing Section 114 of the WSIA just around the new year.

Soon after, on Jan 14, Rafizi Ramli, self-proclaimed architect of Kajangate, released an official statement in his capacity as PKR director of strategy, criticising the federal government for invoking Section 114, and stressing that certain water concessionaires must not be ‘punished’ as a result of this move. Abbas, the company closest in nature and scale to Splash, was named as an example.

Following this, rumours of Khalid being replaced went into high gear, and on Jan 27, Lee Chin Cheh announces his resignation.

There may be more circumstantial evidence surrounding this timeline, but it is probably currently premature to pursue those details in the media.

In summary, making the pledges outlined at the beginning of this article would of course go a long way in putting any undue doubts or suspicions at rest.

Any failure to do so, and/or evasion of this topic, on the part of those promoting a change of menteri besar should perhaps motivate us to pursue clarity on the matter with greater vigour.

The article is by Nathaniel Tan. It gives an insight to the vested interest and connections on both sides of the political divide. Looks like Khalid is an obstruction to all sides! But I suspect he will change.

COMMENT Once in a blue moon, an explanation comes along that makes something inscrutable suddenly become clear as day.

Some of us use the term Kajangate. This obviously references the Watergate scandal, which resulted in Richard Nixon becoming the only president of the United States to resign while in office. ‘All the President’s Men’, a movie about how the scandal broke, apparently popularised the phrase “Follow the money.”

This is invariably good advice when trying to understand politics.

Let me open with a number of very simple questions regarding an important and very much overlooked factor in Kajangate: the Selangor water industry.

Assuming the current menteri besar of Selangor is to be replaced, will any individual seeking to replace him:

a) Promise to continue the state government’s efforts in reclaiming control over Selangor’s water industry from private corporations.

b) Promise not to offer a higher price (to any individual water concessionaire) to buy over Selangor’s water industry back from the water concessionaires than the most recent offer made by the Selangor state government, as of December 2013.

c) Promise that any contract given to a private entity to run Selangor’s water industry after the takeover be made through a completely open and transparent tender.

There may be more options to get the best deal for the rakyat, but any attempt to present one had better include very detailed explanations. Any such alternative/explanation which would result in private corporations making more profit (than other deals proposed by the state government to date) may be viewed with considerable suspicion.

If any aspiring menteri besar would sign a legally binding document promising the above, I think it would go a long way in putting to rest a number of concerns that may arise in this recent power grab.

To understand why this is so, we need to revisit the long, dirty history of Selangor’s water industry.

How we got here

Allow me to quote from a Selangor Times report from last year:

“In the 1980s, before the era of privatisation, state-owned Jabatan Bekalan Air Selangor used to manage the state’s water services and was making annual profits of between RM50 million to RM80 million.

“But in 1997, the Barisan Nasional-led state administration decided to split the industry and privatised the profitable water treatment service to three companies.

“It wasn’t until 2004 that Syabas took over the loss-making water distribution service and was granted a 30-year concession, allowing them to raise water tariffs every three years from year 2009.”

Basically, BN took a huge profit-making monopoly, privatised it to cronies, who then siphoned out all the money, making it a loss-making enterprise, and then gave it to people (Syabas) who siphoned even more money out of the industry. That is what Selangor inherited in 2008.

The article goes on to say:

“The Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry and the National Water Services Commission (Span) are supposed to regulate the country’s water sector under the Water Services Industry Act 2006 (WSIA).

“Indeed, Section 114(1) of the Act allows the minister to assume complete or partial control of water assets and business ‘for national interests’, which ‘shall not be challenged, appealed against, reviewed, quashed or questioned in any court’.

“In the spirit of WSIA, the federal government had originally given Selangor’s investment arm Kumpulan Darul Ehsan Bhd the green light to begin the state’s water restructuring exercise before the 2008 general elections.

“However, after Pakatan Rakyat took over the Selangor state administration, its efforts to consolidate the water sector for the past five years have not been backed by Putrajaya.

“Splash and Abbas accepted one of the state’s offers in June 2009 but Syabas and PNSB (Puncak Niaga) have consistently rejected all bids, including from the federal government and Splash major shareholder Gamuda in 2010.”

The abhorrent ways in which the crony culture of Syabas has become a black hole of public funds has been documented elsewhere.

By 2006, even the federal government was forced to admit how badly privatisation was ruining the Selangor water industry and proceeded to enact laws that would have allowed the state government to take over. In 2008, as the state government changed hands, the federal government changed their minds - putting partisan political interests above public ones.

Khalid Ibrahim has been relentlessly pursuing a solution to this problem from the minute he took office, only to be frustrated constantly by the water concessionaires who seem to be holding out for bigger buyouts, and the federal government, who seem to be catering to vested interests of their own.

Puncak up, up and up. Yippee!!

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/254210

@Hjey, the lady's serious. OK Haikeyila, just tell me where to send in KL/Selangor and I will ask my florist to send you some roses. Elsewhere in Malaysia, I will try but no promise.

But I sense that your hunger for true love is intense and immense. The Christians call such love 'agape' love or unconditional love. Only Jesus Christ can give such love, which once you drink of it, you will never thirst again. I found Jesus Christ as my Lord and Saviour many years ago and have never thirsted again.

@iafx, first time is always hard; gets easier after each time. So likely Fed Govt will compensate again. Afterall, it's the tax-payers who pay up .... again.

Yeah 'willing' as in a marriage with generous dowry.

Like in Chess, we are in the end game. Check-mate is when Fed Govt or Khalid cough up more. We will see who will get mated. Either way, PUNCAK wins!

Pressures on Fed Govt: The new Kajang king pursuing new water agenda like you said leading to delay in settlement; Langat 2 delay with project financial backers (with powerful connections) leaking interest expense; others with interests in the many billions involved; other pressures are unmentionable! Fed Govt, having coughed out RM4.04 billion to settle SYABAS debts, is likely to cough out more to settle PUNCAK's claim for SYABAS's increase in water tariffs which were refused by Selangor Govt.

If you are right, then with Kajang coming, it will also pressure the Fed Govt to cut a deal with sweeteners, fast! No deal is worth it without SYABAS.

@iafx, I think any new 'master plan' is just a bluff unless they control Syabas which is THE prize in the whole exercise.

With 40 million shares to play around, Koon literally control JTiasa share price. The sell down recently was a warning that he should not overplay his mouth on the political scene. Note his more 'moderate' tone recently.