Posted by choolooi > 2014-01-22 08:42 | Report Abuse

Yes luck does play a small part I would say. However, it is the hard work that goes before ( in your case the FA knowledge and the in-depth probe of the stocks) that contribute to the success of your portfolio . Congrats .
99% perspiration 1% inspiration .

Thanks for your generous sharing.

Posted by ironside > 2014-01-22 21:44 | Report Abuse

Luck no doubt to a certain extent plays a part, however one would require sharp analysis with experience in this particular field to excel ! Cheers! 加油 !!!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-01-24 06:41 | Report Abuse

In investing, there are simply too many variables with high level of abstractions; the unpredictable and unknowable future; the highly emotional of human being of greed and fear.

Often investment analysis (if any done) projects a detailed and complex world onto a smaller subspace. But extrapolation in the smaller space can be unreliable.

Unlike in Science you’re playing against God, and He doesn’t change His laws very often. Here I would agree that for success, there is “99% perspiration, 1% inspiration.”

In finance and investment, you’re playing against God’s creatures, agents who value assets based on their ephemeral opinions. “sharp analysis with experience in this particular field” may help in the outcome though.

Investment analysis is not the physics of markets. It is not even close to that. Similarly speculating with the believe that knowledge of a stock’s past behaviour can help to predict its probable future behaviour to me is even more abstract.

In my humble opinion, luck must play a bigger role in investing.

“Learn to be honest with yourself about your success and failures. Learn to recognize the role of luck has played in all outcomes. Learn to decide which outcomes came about because of skill and which because of luck. Until one learns to identify the true source of success, one will be fooled by randomness”.
Paul Johnson

Posted by cykoay > 2014-01-24 14:54 | Report Abuse

i love to read your writings but did you have your own criteria for selling? Do you mind to share?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-01-24 15:03 | Report Abuse

When to sell?
Posted by cykoay > Jan 24, 2014 02:54 PM | Report Abuse
i love to read your writings but did you have your own criteria for selling? Do you mind to share?

This is my principle

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/43016.jsp

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-08-03 14:45 | Report Abuse

Luck is like Betting. In market we are Betting on Mispricing. Investment is about Mispricing. SO INVESTMENT is equal to LUCK ??

I would say In short term, market is a voting machine. Long term is a weighing machine. All luck factors/noise will be smoothed out/filtered out.

Common sense and statistic says that you cant be lucky for 30 years.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-08-03 14:59 | Report Abuse

Sometimes i would think that too much emphasize on the market returns year to year until we forget about the survivalship issue.

Stock Diversification?
Portfolio management? Cash level?
Stock picks for Long term?
These are Right things to do to sacrifice for Market return BUT in exchange for survivalship.

Why survivalship? Yes compounding for Long term. Yes i survive this year. I can compound for this year.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-08-03 15:12 | Report Abuse

Ha, if I survive Long enough I will have all lucks factors at my side.