Salt fish can wake up? I think its got chance. kcchong too calc and take history to give judgement. In your mind, you just think the history will repeat. But What I think history will give the management a lesson. They will improve. When price from 3xc to 1 already prove that this salt fish will alive one day. I will give them 2 more years: 2016 and check your this article again. May General Lee can prove what you said is wrong? Let see! Beside for hib, it is still too young. So yours should not expect any good financial result will be in recent. Kid also need time to become adult mah.
Do you think the company can be turned around? Be real, Mr. ganasai! No way it can turn around given that it is still being run by the same bunch of idiots. If they can turn around, they should have already done that! The infra for oil and gas upcycle has already ended.
erm..lemon slices in lemon juice with ice water is a healthy,perky, vigorous, real snazzy kicker. Lemons are a healthy source of vitamin C , a lemon a day keeps the doctor away... lemon stocks?? please give it a different name say "shit stocks", "chiaksai stocks" or "Tahi stocks" hahahahahaha
@KWTan - directing at the research houses may lead to an exchange of opinion as both parties have their own basis. I would rather trust KC based on his meticulous analysis which goes beyond just looking at the Balance Sheet and Profit & Loss Account. Bear in mind these analysts are paid to do their jobs. If you compare KC's returns as against theirs, you know who is better.
Creative Accounting, Round Trip, Pyramid Scheme, Shell Company, Inflated Revenue, Inflation of Asset, Paper Profits, Related Parties Transactions, outright fraud and so much more accounting gimmicks.
We need a fraud school to educate the public. KC has done a great services as usual.
For every gem, there are 2 also-rans and 7 lemons on KLSE. We all should have known by now.
Fidelity drove up KNM's share price beyond recognition since listing in early 2000s, with Maybank being the cheerleader and back-stopper.
All hells broke loose when KNM used its hard-earned profit, equity and Maybank loan to make an outsize acquisition of Borsig at the height of the oil price boom. Fidelity did very well by cashing (almost) all out before the share price started to crash from RM8.30 to now current level.
KNM needs continual innovation in products, better cost control, and rediscovering of its niche in what has become a too-competitive market fought for by a surfeit of suppliers chasing orders by bidding at unprofitable prices.
Once a darling, KNM will need to reinvent itself. Good luck to Mr Lee.
Sometimes, u need to know a bit about the history and the people running the company. KNM with a torrid history of price movements without corresponding delivery of performance, how can u trust it for investment? Trading, may be if u are good. Similarly, MPCorp, see how the major shareholders charge the company at exorbitant interest rate on a loan by them, how to expect the company to do well. Remember leopard never changes its spots.
according to your CFA(respected qualification) point of view, warren bufect TESCO commitment from 2007-2014 (>5% ) is a LEMON INVESTING ? By nature,with GOD* grace lemon is a beautiful fruit which can even cure CANCER....probably ebola...? (papaya leaf cure for mosquito sickness,INSTITUTE OF MEDICAL REACH MALAYSIA CONFIRMED) LEMON+ HONEY= WEIGHT LOST PROGRAMME. LEMON+HONEY+GINGER=colonal detoxification. lemon+hot water=air limau lemon+teh=teh limau lemon+detergent=*GLO* LEMON.......LEMON>>>>>>>>LEMON<<<<<<<<<<<< With GOD*s GRACE..........lemon......the little lemon....... shall help to clean the human faculty of CORRUPTION.
Posted by ganasai > Oct 22, 2014 06:04 PM | Report Abuse
Salt fish can wake up? I think its got chance. kcchong too calc and take history to give judgement. In your mind, you just think the history will repeat.
"History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme" Mark Twain
But What I think history will give the management a lesson. They will improve.
"You can’t make a good deal with a bad person": Warren Buffet
When price from 3xc to 1 already prove that this salt fish will alive one day.
"When you realize that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount" Sioux Indian proverb
I will give them 2 more years: 2016 and check your this article again. May General Lee can prove what you said is wrong? Let see!
"I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one. I can use history to refute conjuncture, never to affirm it." Fooled by Randomness Nassim Taleb
Beside for hib, it is still too young. So yours should not expect any good financial result will be in recent. Kid also need time to become adult mah.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” ― Niels Bohr
As always Kc is Spot On on General 'wolf' lee's antic :( I like reading the comments above @matakuda- General 'wolf' Lee is definitely NOT a bunch of idiots LOL - the ones u r referring to are his loyal bravehearts who continues to donate to his riches. I actually thinks he is the BEST goreng kaki after Repco Low. He is very creative like wat everything stockoperator mentioned - yep EVERYTHING LOL @sunzthze - yeah I think Kc should named it longkang shit instead of lemon LOL I also dunno why bursa dummy put there 'four big heavenly king' - trust me this KNM ain't no heavenly nor king but hellish longkang shit more like it LOL My Stock Market Investment Journey - Bursa Dummy - Good Articles to Share | I3investor
@invest88 - yep very well said - absolutely no point in directing to those anal -lysts - after all we know where their interest LIES LOL
limko said it very well - it's the management STUPID LOL - in this case General 'wolf' Lee wolfing down all the rich brave heart easy earned $$$$$$
ganasai Salt fish can wake up? I think its got chance. kcchong too calc and take history to give judgement. In your mind, you just think the history will repeat. But What I think history will give the management a lesson. They will improve. When price from 3xc to 1 already prove that this salt fish will alive one day. I will give them 2 more years: 2016 and check your this article again. May General Lee can prove what you said is wrong? Let see! Beside for hib, it is still too young. So yours should not expect any good financial result will be in recent. Kid also need time to become adult mah.
yep the above precisely typical loyal braveheart that somehow General managed to consistently recruit. Everyday I wake up I thank GOD I made the right decision (painfully at that time) in cutting this longkang 3 years ago otherwise i'll be still stuck with huge paper losses and worst still seeing so so many shares that I bought thereafter flying thru the roof not only recovering my losses but also managed to record decent gains along as well. I probably won't be here sharing my story if I still hold this longkang - likely scenario will be jumping off the building :(
many people does not realize that this share price at present still all time low from it's glory days of 10 bucks that there's a reason for it. they think wah 75 cents cheap2 OnG billions dollars revenue how can that b n with research houses foaming in their mouth again Screaming BUY3 it's very tempting to say the least but for me I'll NEVER touch this longkang shit again becoz of only 1 thing - the INTEGRITY of this General 'wolf' Lee which is NONE at all. Becareful of his 'Field Guidance' of earnings n his others tricks to those 1/2 past 6 anal - lysts like Kc pointed out - it is also very well documented in ze moola articles - Where is Ze Moola: Search results for knm - Investing And Bursa Malaysia Stock Market No one is more thorough than KC in dissecting all these General's tricks n cheats :)
Part of the reason why my losses was huge was becoz of General 'Wolf' Lee n First Lady Gan who was 'showing' confidence in buying the millions of the share when it was plunging due to the poor results few years back. if Boss buying at 2+ dun tell me at 1.50 u not going to buy ar IF u believe in the company.
unfortunately now I see the same type of SHITS being played to keep interest in this longkang - General 'Wolf' Lee n First Lady Gan buying back,Epf buying,anal-ysts foaming in their mouth again with General's field guidance plucking from the air, RAPID news n later if slow then Peter pan news n finally Borsig the german torpedo listing will come back to create interest AGAIN n AGAIN to look for new suckers err brave hearts LOL - meantime if you're holding like my master sifu YS1 - be prepared to come out more $$$$$ for your rights with Free warrants.
Sure this share will bounce up a little from time to time when the time is good all around like how some longkangs also looking clean AFTER Alam Flora done their cleaning but as u know well it's juz a temp thingy n will go back to shitty smelly again in no time :( even with the current 'rebound' this longkang is still extremely way off it's previous glory days though market is near all time high. if good times also cannot go up how do you expect it to even stay flat let alone go up in bad times? hopefully like wat ganasai said my mastersifu YS1 can get back his $$$$ in 2 years n NOT continue to receive his free warrants paying rights every 2 years instead :(
Reason simple: because kcchong also indirectly invest in knm. EPF also buy mah. haha. So how you hate, you also invested. So, please believe and support it.
Posted by Tan KW > Oct 22, 2014 08:17 PM | Report Abuse @kcchongnz, why not direct your question to HLG analysts?
Tan KW,I would be very happy to discuss in an open forum with him here. It would be more appropriate if a third party, someone like you, invites him to come over here so that we all can benefit.
Posted by ganasai > Oct 23, 2014 12:26 PM | Report Abuse Please change this title to "unavoidable lemon", seems everybody eating now.
ganasai, since you are active in this investment forum and hence must be active in investing, it is good to learn some economic term such as "lemon". Goggle it if you don't understand. Knowledge is power, and it is easy to learn things nowadays.
KC the problem is lots of analyst just take the current year of earning or prospective earning of next two years as the Basis of Valuation. It is a very shallow valuation.
We all know current earning or speculative earning will manipulate the PE ratio in wide range. That is how they justify the valuation and they even skip the Balance sheet and cash flow and Business operation or debt ratio.
hi stockoperator, enough already loh.if rapid project success, what also enough loh. But success or project is future thing, mainly is get the project first. kakaka.... Then, who care the later story..... kakaka....... Dont think too much.
they already foresee get the project in next 2 years should not be a problem. Price should able to fly. then how to operate that project is another continue story. Who care too much. Understand?
kcchong always promote this ptaras. I do not deny this is a good stock. Quite correct he promotes. But how about another 10 years? Dont forget knm also a bluechip in long long time ago. So dont foresee too far. kakaka....
kcchong, ganasai, frank soweto, stockoperator I am rather intrigued by your discussion. It appears that everyone has their favorite stocks to make money. To cut a long story short and to test your future capability of stock selection and be accountable for your stock buy decision, would all of you please select two stocks each which all of you think will outperform up to 31 Dec 2015. You can select and buy any two stocks from Oct 1st 2014 till 31/10/2014 and you can sell anytime or hold till 31st December 2015 as long as you are satisfied with the profits or lack of profits. Lets fix the investment capital to RM 10,000 for each participant.
So please advise the following: kcchong- what is your stock selected? Uchitec, Tongher? ganasai- what is your stock selected n buy in price? I assume its KNM, BJCORP unless u advise me otherwise frank Soweto- what is your stock selected and your buy in price? stock 1, stock 2?? stockoperator- what is your stock selected and buy in price? Is it Padini, other??
Haha i wont join. Because my knowledge and analysis skill still poor. But i just want to say something where i see this salt fish may got chance alive. But long or price will maintain i not sure. But rapid project may be turnaround for them.
ganasai, whatever skill you have, it is still your own skill right? Please remember that 75% of the sifu's and stock investment experts got it wrong and it had been proven. So do reconsider your decision. So can I put down your stocks as BJCORP and KNM??
Hope he can reply in this forum, so that all we know he based on what fact to analyze. For me, haha follow big fish move loh. Seems like banks and EPF quite active in this knm, So.... just dance together loh.
haha sunztzhe, no point for that. Better we still follow forum topic and discuss. What I talk here may not for long term like those promote by kcchong.
Posted by ganasai > Oct 23, 2014 12:55 PM | Report Abuse kcchong always promote this ptaras. I do not deny this is a good stock. Quite correct he promotes. But how about another 10 years? Dont forget knm also a bluechip in long long time ago. So dont foresee too far. kakaka....
I never promote any stock in i3. I do analysis of company and share my views here.
Firstly good companies no need huha huha in this kind of forums. Their value lies in their business, not promotion by anyone.
Secondly I seriously doubt there is any clout here to jack up the price of stocks. All of us combined is just kuching kurat compared to the insiders, syndicate players, manipulators,institutional investors etc.
Good Write Up kcchongnz. There are tonnes of Lemons in Malaysia to avoid. Stick with the High ROE, High Growth, High Margin, Good Management, Sustainable Biz, Reasonable PE. As long as we get 7 out of 10, I believe, it is not bad.
Posted by sosfinance > Oct 23, 2014 03:37 PM | Report Abuse Good Write Up kcchongnz. There are tonnes of Lemons in Malaysia to avoid. Stick with the High ROE, High Growth, High Margin, Good Management, Sustainable Biz, Reasonable PE. As long as we get 7 out of 10, I believe, it is not bad.
Posted by sunztzhe > Oct 23, 2014 01:14 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong, ganasai, frank soweto, stockoperator I am rather intrigued by your discussion. It appears that everyone has their favorite stocks to make money. To cut a long story short and to test your future capability of stock selection and be accountable for your stock buy decision, would all of you please select two stocks each which all of you think will outperform up to 31 Dec 2015. You can select and buy any two stocks from Oct 1st 2014 till 31/10/2014 and you can sell anytime or hold till 31st December 2015 as long as you are satisfied with the profits or lack of profits. Lets fix the investment capital to RM 10,000 for each participant.
So please advise the following: kcchong- what is your stock selected? Uchitec, Tongher? ganasai- what is your stock selected n buy in price? I assume its KNM, BJCORP unless u advise me otherwise frank Soweto- what is your stock selected and your buy in price? stock 1, stock 2?? stockoperator- what is your stock selected and buy in price? Is it Padini, other??
Sunztzhe,
When I teach people about investing, I am talking about value investing for the long-term. Value investors have no ability to predict share price in 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years. They only look at the business of the company, whether it is good, durable etc. If it is they won't buy yet until look at its price; is it expensive relative to its earnings, cash flow, with other similar companies, what is its price relative to its value, how risky is the company, and a whole lot of question.
Even after that, the price may take a long time to reach its potential, if they are right about the business. But they can be wrong too, but generally not as often as they would be right.
So you see a value investor won't win in your kind of competition. But in the first place, they invest for long-term to build wealth,not aiming to compete with anybody.
And also value investors don't just buy one or two stocks, knowing very well that they could be wrong or overconfident in just one or two companies. They also know that they are not Warren Buffet. So they own a portfolio of generally ten to twenty stocks to capitalize on the free lunch offered by diversification. They also aware that the market is unknowable and unpredictable. So they don't like to use margin financing in investing or other form of leverage.
And then they wait patiently, and happy to obtain a compounded annual return of 10%-20% for a long period of time, hopefully.
kcchongnz, Thanks for sharing your views on Value Investing. I do see your risk management logic in diversifying into more stock picks of min 10 to 20 stocks or more stocks as due to uncertainty one does want to be overly exposed to any one of the selected stocks although it fulfills your financial selection criteria. This begets the question of whether one has done a thorough work on qualitative and financial evaluation criteria tools checklist prior to stock selection.
Have you ever asked yourself how do you and why do you want to occupy your time to monitor the financial performance of 20 or more stocks in your portfolio? How do you find the time to monitor each individual stock performance, perform good qualitative and quantitative work on each of the 20 or more selected stocks. Wouldn't that begets the second question of whether one is indeed diversifying one's focused attention cum competency away as a result of overseeing and monitoring too many stocks?
Wouldn't it be better to further fine tune on one's stock selection criteria on qualitative and financial performance checklist requirement before investing in any stock thus reducing the no of stocks selected to more manageable situation? Wouldn't that mitigate the risk of selecting an "undervalued gem" that later on turned into a "lemon"? Even if that is so, wouldn't one who is as financially skilled and adept as you are be very fast and responsive in averting an "undervalued gem turning into a lemon" catastrophe as surely that will take some time to do so and one will have enough time to respond in an appropriate and fitting manner before it becomes a "TRUE FINANCIAL LEMON". Unless this may be attributed to subjective rationalization that interferes with well thought out objective financial decision making and it opens up an entirely new chapter on "How to avoid falling in love with one's selected gem stocks"
Thanks Sunztzhe for the invite. I think you're mistaken - 1. I'm sharing my story based on the very bad experiences in this longkang shit KNM. hopefully others will not fall in to the same trap as I'm seeing the same script being play now - the only difference is the share prices are lower than when I got in.
2. even if I were to give u my 2 picks n won it is meaningless to me as I know my own capabilities n they're no where near the ability ( not even close )to like kcchongnz which I regard highly n also another fellow sifu kcloh that taught me many2 valuable insights with regards to successful investment. I based my investment philosophy like kcchongnz focusing mainly on diversification,good companies n long term.
3 lastly Kc said very well in his reply to u -
Sunztzhe,
When I teach people about investing, I am talking about value investing for the long-term. Value investors have no ability to predict share price in 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years. They only look at the business of the company, whether it is good, durable etc. If it is they won't buy yet until look at its price; is it expensive relative to its earnings, cash flow, with other similar companies, what is its price relative to its value, how risky is the company, and a whole lot of question.
Even after that, the price may take a long time to reach its potential, if they are right about the business. But they can be wrong too, but generally not as often as they would be right.
So you see a value investor won't win in your kind of competition. But in the first place, they invest for long-term to build wealth,not aiming to compete with anybody.
Sunztzhe, You have sound investment philosophy, just lie two super investors I know; they are Warren and Buffet and Phillip Fisher. Buffet actually transform himself from a farmer to a hunter in investing, guided by his deputy, Charles Munger. Berkshire Hathaway owns relatively very few stocks, actually he owns companies in a strict sense because it is a very substantial shareholder of companies it owns. Hence he can control the operations of the companies he chooses to, but he rarely does. He does made “thorough work on qualitative and financial evaluation criteria tools checklist prior to stock selection”, the same as what Philip Fisher did with his scuttle butting. It is not that they never make mistakes, they did often do. Their overall results are still very good.
I fully aware my own limitations that I can never be like Buffet (I mean his ability in finding companies and concentrate and control the investments in them), nor Fisher. Hence I took the other approach, ie diversifications. Well I have written an article here about it and I don’t expect you to agree with me.
I do more detail analysis for companies I want to invest in, but never thorough to the extent of what you described, especially the qualitative aspects. I can never certain that I am absolute right. If I am right 70% of the time, I would be very happy. Well, I am just a small time retail investor.
Once I have invested in 10-20 stocks, I don’t spend hell of time to monitor them as you know, I am not a trader. I do look at their quarterly reports, but that is only 4 times in a year. Sometimes I don’t even care much about the quarterly reports.
“Wouldn't it be better to further fine tune on one's stock selection criteria on qualitative and financial performance checklist requirement before investing in any stock thus reducing the no of stocks selected to more manageable situation?”
Sure, that is the essence of value investing, seriously. Go ahead and do it as much as you like and as much as you can.
Posted by Tan KW > Oct 23, 2014 01:39 PM | Report Abuse
@kcchongnz, i have email the request to yttan@hlib.hongleong.com.my
It is fantastic if he can provide his view to us.
Yeah, we all can learn from him.
For a start, let me ask
1. “Strong earnings growth prospect? CAGR of earnings growth of 55% from FY14-FY16” Based on what? 2. “We maintained our BUY call with unchanged target price of RM1.35 based on 16x FY15 P/E.” How come such a fantastic PE, why not 5? 3. “KNM is one of the alpha stocks” What do you mean by alpha stock? Alpha to me is a positive return over the index.
While waiting for his reply, why not we discuss it here among ourselves? There seem to be a lot of people here know a lot of KNM.
Posted by stockoperator > Oct 24, 2014 05:35 PM | Report Abuse KC stock preference is quite personal much more than food music and clothing selection. You can write about it But discussion is not easy one.
I seriously don't see a stock can be akin to food, music and clothing.
Investing in a stock is investing in a part business of a company. It is a financial asset with certain expected cash flow, and hence determines its value.
"There are many areas in valuation where there is room for disagreement, including how to estimate true value and how long it will take for prices to adjust to true value. But there is one point on which there can be no disagreement. Asset prices cannot be justified merely by using the argument that there will be other investors around willing to pay a higher price in the future."
Kc invest for long term in stocks that r fundamentally sound n wants to become a long term shareholder n expect above market dividend yield over time. Others r just traders but there is a amorphous line between trading, punting or gambling. However in today's society... being called a stock trader or a Swing trader gives one some form of respectability rather than being called an outright gambler
Too much emphasis on speculative earning by HLG which forms the Basis of valuation. The reports is misguiding to the true value of a company.
Anyhow the investing community has put too much emphasis on Quarterly and yearly earning until it sways the price too much in such a big volatility. Thus create unnecessary fear and greed.
Slowly and eventually, investing public starts to speculate earnings and believe the quarterly earning has the predictive power into the company futures and thus determine the company core valuations.
stock selection and preference will mostly depends on a person character and personality, comfort zone, risk appetite, competency and investment philosophy and i respect that.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ganasai
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Posted by ganasai > 2014-10-22 18:04 | Report Abuse
Salt fish can wake up? I think its got chance. kcchong too calc and take history to give judgement. In your mind, you just think the history will repeat. But What I think history will give the management a lesson. They will improve. When price from 3xc to 1 already prove that this salt fish will alive one day. I will give them 2 more years: 2016 and check your this article again. May General Lee can prove what you said is wrong? Let see! Beside for hib, it is still too young. So yours should not expect any good financial result will be in recent. Kid also need time to become adult mah.