Posted by kakashit > 2016-07-26 08:44 | Report Abuse

Do u notice the market price of broiler has been climbing up lately regardless of hari raya effects?

2016-07-13 07:23
肉鸡飙涨30年来最贵‧鸡瘟抑或奸商牟利
肉鸡零售业行内人指出，净鸡（有内脏）每公斤零售价涨至9令吉或9令吉50仙，涨幅约1令吉50仙；超级净鸡（无内脏）零售价涨到10令吉，涨幅达到1令吉或1令吉20仙；活鸡方面售价涨至7令吉40仙或7令吉50仙。

Posted by YiStock > 2016-07-26 08:47 | Report Abuse

Kakashit, the association has came out in newspaper to clarify that the price up is not at farmer level but on retail seller.

Posted by RicheHo > 2016-07-26 08:54 | Report Abuse

how do you guys look at this counter?

Posted by kakashit > 2016-07-26 09:03 | Report Abuse

haha, dun be fooled, the retailers are the price takers, they 贵来贵卖 only

Posted by YiStock > 2016-07-26 11:21 | Report Abuse

kakashit, if 贵来贵卖, the same will apply to the farmer itself as cost may have increased (feed, etc)? It offset each other.

RicheHo, i'm NOT very familiar how the subsidy mechanism works. I'm just sharing my thinking.

(1) Is current flour revenue registered by MFlour is INCLUSIVE of subsidy, let say X? So by removing the subsidy X, consumers now has to pay for the X subsidized sum. To Mflour, is there any different?

or, is the revenue registered is NOT INCLUSIVE the subsidy? the story will be very different.

The key message i try to differentiate is: removing of subsidy vs removing of selling price ceiling.

(2) Mflour has RM 422 mil worth of USD short term loan, i think not easy to hedge. Or they may not be able to hedge properly. See the ratio of forex losses vs profit. Another big swing of forex may eat away all profit.


Very appreciate if you can help to verify this. thank you

Posted by YiStock > 2016-07-26 11:27 | Report Abuse

Any price increase passing to consumer will end up changing the purchasing behaviour and impact will then revert back to MFlour, i think that remained as a question mark.

Posted by kakashit > 2016-07-26 11:32 | Report Abuse

what u trying to say is cost push inflation in Economics term, but do u know nowadays the seafood n the beef are so freaking expensive?

bcoz good seafood all exported, and the good beef need to be imported.

Then what do u do? Switch to chicken lo, still affordable what even though price hike.

So IMO this is demand push inflation.

Posted by YiStock > 2016-07-26 11:39 | Report Abuse

ya.. is a matter of whole chicken, half chicken or quarter chicken

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-07-26 11:39 | Report Abuse

I am in, at about RM1.30

Posted by YiStock > 2016-07-26 11:42 | Report Abuse

Way too challenging for me to understand the overall impact. Icon8888 will be able to understand the whole situation well.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2016-07-26 11:43 | Report Abuse

Good day to all FA colleagues,

Icon8888, Yistock, Kakashit and RicheHo..

This house lack of long term investors. Good to see you all...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-07-26 11:51 | Report Abuse

Yi, I don't understand it well either. At best, only 40%.

But certain factors encourage me to take a bet :
(a) Low commodity price;
(b) Share price trading at bottoming level;
(c) Indonesian venture turned around;
(d) Liberalisation of flour price (certain categories only); and
(e) March 2016 quarter net profit understated by forex loss.

These factors alone is sufficient for me to jump in. In stock market, we have to make decision based on incomplete information. If downside is low while upside is potentially high, time to jump in.

50% diligence, 50% luck = Icon8888 investing

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-07-26 11:52 | Report Abuse

hello Duit, nice to see you.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2016-07-26 11:53 | Report Abuse

same here. Icon8888 bro

Posted by YiStock > 2016-07-26 11:57 | Report Abuse

Icon,you are the very daring one. :-)
Duit,doing very good ya..:-)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-07-26 11:58 | Report Abuse

I am ok with them incurring forex loss in coming quarters, if there are any. It won't affect my view of the stock. I will be happy and will hold on if their core profit is strong. As a matter of fact, I will take the opportunity to top up, if that happens

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-07-26 11:59 | Report Abuse

Yi, I can afford to be daring because my exposure is small

no need to think so much, just jump in

Posted by digidigi > 2016-07-26 12:02 | Report Abuse

Coming quater show is from poultry, not flour, forex keep stable from 1st q.

Posted by tradminator > 2016-07-27 11:17 | Report Abuse

great analysis.

Posted by tftey > 2016-07-27 17:24 | Report Abuse

Looks good and positive.

Posted by Jun Yu > 2016-08-16 05:00 | Report Abuse

Shot 2 bullets @1.49 =)

Posted by YiStock > 2016-11-18 10:45 | Report Abuse

kena again by the forex exposure..very hard to hedge USD cash loan..

Posted by younginvestor92 > 2017-01-21 12:23 | Report Abuse

Becareful with his recommendations, his subscriber has lost over 20% in recent months, he is able to write nice things but the stocks he recommended recently went really bad.