Posted by Bruce88 > 2016-09-17 22:22 | Report Abuse

good analysis.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-09-17 22:46 | Report Abuse

Tell you the Big Differences.

In Property you can manage it within your power. In stocks you are at the mercy of directors & those in charge.

In property. You can chose to sell, upgrade, rent it out or use it yourself. In stocks someone else is making all the decisions.

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-09-17 22:47 | Report Abuse

So you think stocks will crash?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-09-17 23:09 | Report Abuse

Posted by Flintstones > Sep 17, 2016 10:47 PM | Report Abuse

So you think stocks will crash?

Whether Stock Crash or not nobody knows for sure.

What is sure now. Go search out THE MOST DEFENSIVE STOCKS TO BUY AND PREPARE YOURSELF WELL

SEE

JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES MANAGED 2 FUNDS RIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF THE 1929 to 1930 when Dow crashed almost 90%.

Yet His Funds Did Very Well.

So KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!

Go GET KNOWLEDGE FIRST!

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-09-18 08:36 | Report Abuse

Not talking to you calvin. Talking to sos

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-09-18 09:55 | Report Abuse

From the perspective of foreign investors, our market already CRASHED, why? In USD term, we have loss about 30%.

If you notice, Japan Nikkei, when the Yen strengthen from USD1 to Yen124 to Yen 101, the Nikkei dropped from around 20,000 to 16,000.

Similarly, when you compared London stocks prior to Brexit, when sterling loss about 13% against USD, their stocks went up about 10%.

Mr Tong (The Edge), was only 32% invested. Why he think that?

Mr Tan Teng Boo, was also about 40% invested (if I am correct). Why he think that?

Like properties, one have to be very specific. Sometimes, when the stock market crashes, say 20% in 6 months, your stocks may be up 2%. So, the crash are meaningless to you. Of course, if we think the crash is temporary, then we take opportunity and buy the index, we may get a 30% return in say 2 years, if it recover.

However, I am very convinced that the real economy growth for the Top 5 economies going through slow growth (at least for one to two more years). And in USA, the financial markets (Stocks and Bonds) and its real economy is in diversion since 2008. The diversion (similar to risk), gap is getting bigger by the months. Hence, there is a higher chance of the financial markets will reconcile with the real economy by some significant adjustments to the financial markets.

So, crash in stocks means differently to different people. Depends on their exposure, asset allocations, net worth vs invested capital, holding power. For some who hardly invested, a stock market crash means nothing to them. But for someone who borrowed a lot and invested a lot, when he doesn't has holding power, he is likely to sell when stock market crash.

Similarly, those who "investors" who bought say 2-3 condos, thinking that they can flip or get 6% rental yield, are in for a shock when they receive their keys. You are lucky if you can rent out. Say you can only rent out at RM2,000, when you expect your rental to be RM3,000 to cover your instalment payment. So you are RM1,000 out flow per month. Any during this period, if you sell, unlikely you can get higher than the last price you paid for (for condos) which launched at RM800 to RM1,000 psf.

For those who cannot get it rented out (usually for integrated development with hotel, shopping complex, offices and condos which launched phase by phase in 3-5 years - due to noise, and continuing construction) for say one or two years after receiving VP, this person is pay say RM3,000 per month for two years without rental, you will have a RM72,000 out flow. So, the question is, do you have the holding power? What if you just have 2 similar type of condos, unable to rent out. That will be around RM144,000 for 2 years. PANIC? So, this "investor" is in serious crash even the market is stagnant. What if he worked in a bank or oil and gas industry, and ask to leave, they without sufficient saving, what should he do?

Crash is relative!!! A guy who kept all its net worth in Ringgit, already crashed about 30%. The last round, it takes about RM3 plus to Yen 1000, today , it is about RM4 per Yen 1,000.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-09-18 11:15 | Report Abuse

Tq Sos to share your very different view from others.
It is very true, usually I prefer to compare our RM vs Sing Dollar / RMB / USD , now we need to compare Rm to Thai Bath .
in overall , this will give me an idea of how is our Malaysia doing .
I'm always read Malaysia mainstream media with a Pinch of salt, especially from the mouth of incompetent one.
That's why Contract Manufacturers doing good all this while . As long there are Skillful employees with multi languages well verse sufficiently.
Hopefully, Malaysia will preserve this Uniquely plot.
It work out to be the last strongest asset especially during uncertainty.

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-09-18 12:50 | Report Abuse

Sos, not all houses are meant to have positive cashflow. Time and time again, history has suggested that properties is an inflation hedge asset. It is true that properties correlate to stocks. But back in 1998, i remember well located properties never dropped in price. There were no buyers during the crisis but anybody who held on to their properties have seen significant gains to date. Based on your example, the investor is bleeding cash. But in the long term, the capital appreciation from those properties would neutralize the cash flow losses.

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-09-18 12:53 | Report Abuse

The best asset class in malaysia is still properties which is historically proven. You can hold Nestle or Dutch Lady for 20 years or you can hold a Mont Kiara properties. After 20 years, you may see which asset has the better return.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-09-18 13:17 | Report Abuse

At least for now , The Buying Effort are weak.
This will not improved in short untill Malaysia major revenue eg. (O&G / Cpo) recovered.
We are desparately count on Exporter in E&E , gas, & tourism sector.
Hope, Malaysia take extra concern on this era. Education & Safety continuation effort to suit future talent need shall not be lack behind.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-09-18 13:31 | Report Abuse

Beside, Rental vs monthly installment has been a good indicator .

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-09-18 13:47 | Report Abuse

Rental vs monthly installment is not the right indicator dude. Our country interest rate is still at the higher end in the region. Do you know what is SG interest rate? Only 1%. Rental vs monthly installment tells you only the underlying rental demand of the asset at that point of time. Analyzing properties is just like analyzing oil stocks. You got to think about the replacement cost. If i have a house that costs rm500k to build and it can only be rented at rm500, does it mean the house price is going to crash? No.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-09-18 13:51 | Report Abuse

It always work out well for me , at least.

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-09-18 14:33 | Report Abuse

@Flinstones, I have compared BU2/7, the CAGR is about 8% p.a. (28 years, bought in 1988), and Nestle Malaysia (I only have 10 years from Bloomberg, bought in 2006) CAGR is about 17%. Perhaps the first 10 years in BU, the CAGR is 10% or more. But there are many, during the 2010 to 2013 craze, many landed properties double in 3 years (i.e. CAGR 24%) but over a longer period, say 10-20 years, it will fall to 7-8% p.a. So, it depends when you buy or sell, similarly like stocks. Some i3 sifu said they made 400%-500% in 18 months. So, very hard to compare. As long as you have double digits for >10 years, you are doing great.

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-09-18 15:39 | Report Abuse

I agree with your take on reversion to mean