Posted by sunztzhe > 2017-05-22 20:32 | Report Abuse

Ideas percolate. Through natural selection, the best ones survive.

Andrew Lo

Posted by sunztzhe > 2017-05-22 20:35 | Report Abuse

It's important to understand how people perceive risk, and how that translates into investment behavior.

Andrew Lo

Posted by sunztzhe > 2017-05-22 20:35 | Report Abuse

Great investors need to have the right combination of intuition, business sense and investment talent.

Andrew Lo

Posted by sunztzhe > 2017-05-22 20:44 | Report Abuse

Most people are overconfident about their own abilities. That is probably a good thing. But we would be horrified if a physician's aide engaged in heart surgery.

Andrew Lo

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-22 21:50 | Report Abuse

Bitcoin fly to the moon already value investing still cannot go up
:D
Today digital coin total market cap exceeding 80b USD!!
Huge jump from a 50b just last week!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-22 23:56 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 22, 2017 10:13 PM | Report Abuse
so kc...details matter....
project IRR 12% can transform into huge equity IRR once gearing ( borrowings) is taken into account.


Can you elaborate what you mean here?

"project IRR"? equity IRR? what is the difference?

How "borrowings" come into the equation of IRR?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-22 23:59 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 22, 2017 10:20 PM | Report Abuse
kc
share market is short term in nature.
business men can be longer term in nature.

ME; SO WHAT ARE YOU TRYING TO SAY?

but who will believe you no money to make in a US$ 2 billion project?

ME: WHO SAID GOT MONEY OR NO MONEY TO MAKE? AND WHETHER IT IS US$2 BILLION OF $2 M?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-23 00:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 22, 2017 10:33 PM | Report Abuse
kc

nobody force you to buy.

ME: WHO SAID WHO FORCED WHO TO BUY? JAKS BELONG TO YOU?

but lots of stuffs you just assumed....and starts to comment.

ME: WHAT DID I ASSUME? CAN'T I WRITE AN ARTICLE TO SHARE MY POINT OF VIEW? SO EVERYONE MUST LISTEN TO YOUR VIEW, AND YOUR VIEW ONLY?

eg...to reporters in Hanoi....what you want Jaks MD to say? that their equity IRR is very high?

ME: ????

on a project IRR of 12% ( before gearings)

ME: IRR 12% BEFORE GEARING? IS THAT IRR OF 12% ALL FROM JAKS OWN POCKET WITHOUT BORROWINGS?

......what would profits be on 3:1 gearing and 6% interest rate? Any ideas?

ME: EVALUATION OF A PROJECT IS BY IRR, NPV, OR THE CRUDE PAYBACK PERIOD.
I GOT NO IDES WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT! YOU TELL ME THEN.

even assuming 12%, it is nothing to laugh at with US$ 2 billion project.
ME: LAUGH AT WHAT? WHO LAUGH AT WHO?

12% means it doubles every 6 years......how many doubling in the concession period?

ME; WOW, EUREKA, USING RULE OF 72 TO EVALUATE A PROJECT. SENSATIONAL!

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2017-05-23 00:08 | Report Abuse

The answer is simple: If Jaks succeed, Mr.Koon will be a billionaire. If it fails, then kc is right. Please note that many rich people get rich through low roic business like YTL (2.1b usd net worth). No point argue whether power business is viable or not.It's a matter of execution of this project. If the capital is not investing in... then how we get all the electricity that we need.........

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-23 00:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 23, 2017 12:14 AM | Report Abuse
kc
you are just being naughty... I have to assume you understand simple cash flow projections and IRR.

ME: IT IS RATHER ODD THAT I AS AN ENGINEER UNDERSTAND IRR PERFECTLY WELL, WHEREAS AN ACCOUNTANT HAS SHOWN HE HAS NO CLUE AT ALL WHAT IRR IS WITH ALL THOSE STATEMENTS.


bottom line is as golden eggs says....it is all about execution and business risk.

ME: ISN'T MY ARTICLE SHARED ABOUT RISK AND REWARD, INCLUDING BUSINESS RISK AND EXECUTION RISK?

there is enough profits in the IPP to make Jaks MD the new Francis Yeoh and KYY a billionaire if it succeeds.

ME: WHY DO YOU HAVE TO BRING ALL THESE PEOPLE IN FOR DISCUSSION OF THIS TOPIC? DID I MENTION ANYONE OF THEM?

Posted by cheoky > 2017-05-23 00:45 | Report Abuse

i guess you only know gibberish and rubbish.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-23 00:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 23, 2017 12:25 AM | Report Abuse

kc

you are an academician....trained to look down at IRR 12%...

ME:ACADEMICIAN? WHO? I AM AN ENGINEER. HOW MANY TIMES I HAVE TO SAY THAT? I WAS EVEN A LEAD CIVIL ENGINEER IN A POWER PLANT BEFORE.

TRAINED TO LOOK DOWN AT IRR 12%? WHO LOOKS DOWN? DID I MENTION I LOOK DOWN ON IRR OF 12%/ WHERE?

but details matter.......there are many ways to compute IRR, without looking at the workings, you just cannot say 12% is low.

ME; MANY WAYS TO COMPUTE IRR? WHERE YOU LEARN ONE? WHO SAYS IRR 12% IS LOW?

there is a third IRR which is even higher....remember $ 400 million of the equity actually came fom EPCC? That means the real equity is much smaller, and that translates into an adjusted real equity IRR which is even much much bigger.

ME: WOW, THIRD IRR! INCREDIBLE!

LET AN ENGINEER TEACH AN ACCOUNTANT A LITTLE FINANCE. IN A PROJECT FINANCIAL APPRAISAL, THERE IS ONLY ONE IRR. CASH IN, CASH OUT, BEGINNING VALUE, END VALUE, ITERATE THE DISCOUNT RATE TO FORCE THE BEGIN VALUE EQUALS TO THE END VALUE, YOU GET IRR. YOU MAY GET TWO VALUES, BUT ONLY ONE IS CORRECT.

COMPARE YOUR REQUIRED RETURN TO THE IRR. YOU THEN CAN DECIDE IF THE IRR IS GOOD.

YOUR REQUIRED RETURN DEPENDS ON MANY THINGS, COST OF BORROWINGS, BUSINESS RISKS, FINANCIAL RISK, CONFIDENCE OF EARNINGS AND CASH FLOWS ESTIMATES. IN THIS CASE, MANY OTHER RISKS SUCH AS CURRENCY RISKS, POLITICAL RISKS, PARTNERSHIP RISK, ETC.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-23 00:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 23, 2017 12:41 AM | Report Abuse
and kc

please don't assume I know nothing because you really don't know any thing about me....just as you don't know the deatiled workings when Jaks MD says project IRR is 12 %.

ME: WELL, I THINK I CAN JUDGE YOU VERY WELL.
MY POST DOESN'T SPECULATE ON ANYTHING, JUST BASED ON WHAT WERE GIVEN SUCH AS IRR. MAY BE YOU CAN TELL US WHAT THE "EXTRA' THAT YOU KNOW.

They have teams of bankers, project managers and accountants going through every single item, and they have to present to the Vietnam government in such a way everyone is happy.

ME: WHOSE INTEREST BANKERS CARE OF? SO IF YOU ARE HAPPY WITH IRR OF 12%, THAT IS FINE. WHO HAS OBJECTION ABOUT THAT?

Jaks first went to Vietnam in 2006...imagine it is 11 years in the making. ..The guy is great and deserves his success.

ME: WOW, 11 YEARS ALREADY. REALLY GREAT!

Posted by probability > 2017-05-23 01:01 | Report Abuse

Wow! so beautifully put :)

LET AN ENGINEER TEACH AN ACCOUNTANT A LITTLE FINANCE. IN A PROJECT FINANCIAL APPRAISAL, THERE IS ONLY ONE IRR. CASH IN, CASH OUT, BEGINNING VALUE, END VALUE, ITERATE THE DISCOUNT RATE TO FORCE THE BEGIN VALUE EQUALS TO THE END VALUE, YOU GET IRR. YOU MAY GET TWO VALUES, BUT ONLY ONE IS CORRECT.

COMPARE YOUR REQUIRED RETURN TO THE IRR. YOU THEN CAN DECIDE IF THE IRR IS GOOD.

YOUR REQUIRED RETURN DEPENDS ON MANY THINGS, COST OF BORROWINGS, BUSINESS RISKS, FINANCIAL RISK, CONFIDENCE OF EARNINGS AND CASH FLOWS ESTIMATES. IN THIS CASE, MANY OTHER RISKS SUCH AS CURRENCY RISKS, POLITICAL RISKS, PARTNERSHIP RISK, ETC.

Posted by ipomember > 2017-05-23 01:26 | Report Abuse

your required rate of return could be subjective compare to the company required rate of return as the company has difference stance? What is the IRR norm for coal-based power plant in Vietnam? I am sure they have done their research prior that. For the risks mentioned, i think the management has addressed well through their meeting with PBB analyst. Of course there are still some assumption but that is what business is afterall.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-23 02:00 | Report Abuse

stockmanmy, always define where is the conflict first...
perhaps his statement is completely inline with yours..
what is it that you are stressing and trying to put across?
where is your confusion/dispute with his statements?

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-05-23 06:52 | Report Abuse

Kc dont bully 61 years old retired senior ac clerk lah

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-23 07:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-23 08:01 | Report Abuse

.

Anyway... for what that we all know... for the foreseeable and mid term... watch this closely... the EPC be a very good start for the IPP project



r°Moi And.... the (EPC) contract worth RM1.9bn... could well be much much easier than r°Moi had earlier thought

22/05/2017 08:40


.

Posted by shunfeng2032 > 2017-05-23 10:54 | Report Abuse

Let ride TRC, don't waste time on Jaks. whats the point analysing it when you not interested to invest in it? Jaks has Uncle Koon, i will join in few years time but not now.

Posted by kelvin61 > 2017-05-23 11:00 | Report Abuse

Why so much fuss over JAKS? Before this, it was JTiasa, Xingquan, among others. What happened to these stocks subsequently? Why only blow trumpet on the winners but forgot to highlight the losers. By being transparent, we can then judged how good the person really is.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-23 13:10 | Report Abuse

Value investing only care about getting cheaper
And the cheaper they think the lower they will want to buy
And the price will keep going down despite the market condition is bullish
This is how the newbie get into value trap
The low get lower

Posted by aseng > 2017-05-23 13:11 | Report Abuse

this discussion has really aroused my interest to know more what is IRR

from my reading so far, still have not truly understood what is IRR, I am glad to say that

1. KC had presented his case systematically , readable and comprehendible ,
very good, and has aroused my interest to know more

2. Stockmanny , i do not know how to write anything good about you , honestly
speaking I do not understand what are you trying to say about IRR, I have a
feeling you are trying to mislead the reader into buying a high risk stock at a
high price, that is very bad , no good

my conclusion : JAKS not a good buy at current price !

why ?

the risk is very very very... much higher the the big reward

what is the major risk?

KYY holding !!!!!

when he starts selling you cry like no tomorrow

what to do ?

BUY GADANG !!!

WHY?

CAN SLEEP WELL !!!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-23 13:15 | Report Abuse

Next time we will see value investing in digital coin soon
This is the richest that create value rule
The best value digital coin is the one use the less energy to mine a single coin!
See this is how rule is being made

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-23 13:17 | Report Abuse

After few year another set of new rule will surface
The best value digital coin is the one that pay good dividend
Oh yeah digital coin also can pay dividend
And safety of margin in digital coin is xxx%
It is cheap!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-23 15:31 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > May 23, 2017 06:52 AM | Report Abuse
Kc dont bully 61 years old retired senior ac clerk lah


Charles, look at who is trying to bully who. Hear it from a third party, a credible person.


Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > May 21, 2017 12:12 PM | Report Abuse
Someone is looking for every chance to attack KC and valued investors.


What I am trying to do is to have some discussions with this 61 year old accountant, on accounting and finance, who "is looking for every chance to attack KC and valued investors."

Posted by Flying Man > 2017-05-23 15:46 | Report Abuse

Aiya, pity KC loh, always bully by a dog. Whatever KC said sure kena twisted by the doggy

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-23 16:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by ipomember > May 23, 2017 01:26 AM | Report Abuse
your required rate of return could be subjective compare to the company required rate of return as the company has difference stance? What is the IRR norm for coal-based power plant in Vietnam? I am sure they have done their research prior that. For the risks mentioned, i think the management has addressed well through their meeting with PBB analyst. Of course there are still some assumption but that is what business is afterall.

If I invest in a company, I do not simply accept what the management says. That is my style. No, I do not invest in this company. No, I wrote this to share with people here what I think, not to degrade the company. I like to write and share. I know many do not like me doing so, but I think there are some more mature investors who like to hear the other side of the story to make a better investing decision.

Note management is not the same as shareholders, and they have different interest, although often management wears two hats, but still their interest is not the same as other shareholders. I know this well as I was a corporate guy before.

I present my points here about what construction accounting profit is about, what is the risk free rate in Vietnam, opportunity cost, cost of capital and the various risks involved in the project. It is your duty to evaluate the management is doing the right thing, for you as a minority shareholders. It is not about whether "the management has addressed well through their meeting with PBB analyst". Well, that is what I think, looking at the business sense of it.

If you think your company is taking such a great project with such a great IRR, good on you. Go invest more. Sailang on it. You may soon become very rich.

Posted by OptimusCallMeBaba > 2017-05-23 17:51 | Report Abuse

KYY has proved his stock selection LOUSY & TERRIBLE! With the latest result release by Lii Hen, no pleasant surprise at all.

KYY has failed in XinQuan, doing so so at CSCSteel & Lii Hen, remain to be seen at Jaks.

While everyone seem doing very good in 2017, KYY stock selection based on his OLD MAN SENSE was terribly bad!

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/54015.jsp

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-24 19:58 | Report Abuse

Bitcoin set to record high again!
The best investment that actually make everyone become millionaire
unlike klci which always make people poorer and banker getting richer only
:(
all this value investment is junk
:x

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-29 00:29 | Report Abuse

The Bitcoin I mined last few years already appreciated by few thousands percent and make nearly one million for me while klci still making loss non stop
Sooner or later I will quit this stupid market and focus on Bitcoin development
:))

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-29 00:55 | Report Abuse

you know how to mine bit coins? respect.

some say it will be US$ 20,000 in a few years.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-29 01:03 | Report Abuse

charles....

Financial tools must be handled with care otherwise it can be very misleading.

a project can give you $ 1000 per annum and yield you an IRR of 12%.
another project can give you $ 100 million per annum and still yield you an IRR of 12%

you will want the $ 100 million p.a. project over the $ 1000 p.a. project if you can get it.

there is some thing fundamentally flawed in maths teacher way of looking at things.

Businessman look at the money, follow the money...be direct about it.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-29 01:10 | Report Abuse

Not only I know how to mine it
I am lending it out for some interest income
and the interest income is good
:))

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-29 01:21 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 29, 2017 01:03 AM | Report Abuse
a project can give you $ 1000 per annum and yield you an IRR of 12%.
another project can give you $ 100 million per annum and still yield you an IRR of 12%
you will want the $ 100 million p.a. project over the $ 1000 p.a. project if you can get it.
there is some thing fundamentally flawed in maths teacher way of looking at things.
Businessman look at the money, follow the money...be direct about it.

I am an engineer by profession. I am a teacher teaching you this accountant on accounting stuff. But no matter how much i teach you, you just don't get it. And yet you still continue to bark here and there, "tearing your own face". Shame on you!

Let me teach you another accounting lesson.

What is IRR of 12% of your Jaks? Is this an expectation or an outcome?

It is just basing on estimation of future cash flows.

What if there is a financial crisis and banks pull back the credit?
What if Dong, the currency of payment, slumps 30% in the future?
What if the cost overrun by 30% for the power plant?
What if the Chinese partner makan you?
What if the inflation rate goes up to 10% a year?
What if the Vietnamese official ask you to pay more money to him, otherwise this cannot, that cannot?
What if risk free rate goes up to more than 10%?
What if the Vietnamese agency refuse to take your power supply or reduce your rate say if there is no demand for the power?
What if this and what if that?

Those are the risks we are talking about!

The outcome of your IRR, instead of 12%, becomes -10%!

What happen to Mudajaya's power plants in India?
Why was there such a delay?
Wasn't their expected IRR also in the teens?

What happen now?
How much money they have lost?
What is their IRR now? negative 20%?

All the things you talk about dynamite investing, panic moment, sailing, take high risk and sure high return are just talking cock!

Where got business sense? You kidding?

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-29 01:26 | Report Abuse

Did Bitcoin pay good dividend?
Yes it pay good dividend
refer to this website for a good lock
https://www.poloniexlendingbot.com

this technology will rewrite the rule of investment forever

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-29 01:36 | Report Abuse

KC and his IRR is old school

Bitcoin and block chains are the real deal.

sounds exciting to me but I too old to learn.

my son is studying CFA
my daughter is studying Big Data and Analytics.

who will have a brighter future?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-29 01:49 | Report Abuse

a small project with small capital and decent earnings will give you IRR 12% and $ 1000 p.a.

An US$ 2 billion IPP project with decent earnings will give you an IRR 12% and US$ 100 million p.a. if the capital structure and gearing levels are done right and especially if there is an early recovery US$ 100 million of capital from EPCC...follow the money...details matter.

Good businessman will choose the latter, maths teacher thinks there is equivalence....that is why business man drive Rolls Royce and maths teacher drives what?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-05-29 11:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-29 11:46 | Report Abuse

there are good reasons KYY drive Rolls Royce and raid drives what? Not all luck.....hahahahaha

Posted by stockraider > 2017-05-29 11:47 | Report Abuse

BTW...KYY DO NOT OWN ANY ROLLS ROYCE LOH...!!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-31 11:17 | Report Abuse

Yeah the future for IT is very bright
I know this guy Vitalik Buterin he is the founder of the software that will change this world how banking operate and rendering all the greedy banker to jobless
He is billionaire by net worth at the time of writing
Also the alpha go success is another mile stone to strengthen the future of IT

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitalik_Buterin

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k0HmrSfJwhU

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-31 11:32 | Report Abuse

too late, no genius in the family.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-31 11:33 | Report Abuse

no genius in family
develop business sense good enough

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-31 11:55 | Report Abuse

IT is replacing all conventional business operation
They do not need to develop new business
Just replace the existing business with IT
It is very cheap to do so.

Posted by Stock Kingdom > 2017-06-22 23:21 | Report Abuse

Big fat frog is now dying on the road, soon it will become fried skinny frog

Posted by humblechung > 2017-07-12 20:14 | Report Abuse

wah

Posted by alphajack > 2018-07-30 11:16 | Report Abuse

Kyy will get burned here before he meets his Maker. karma coming.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-07-30 11:43 | Report Abuse

Why need to fear Jaks loh ??

1. Jaks construction, we all know is lousy....bcos they have rm 50 million bank guarantee being called by Star....due to project delay.

2. Vietnam Power plant...Murphy Law

2.1 It suppose to look attractive but they are not generating power yet, the current profit on construction is book entry profit on shiok sendiri accounting entry loh...!!
2.2 Jaks says it has subcontract everything to its china jv partner...but does its partner pay any profit to jaks on the works ??
Answer No loh...!!
2.3. The china construction co quite cunning loh...just look at msia ECRL and Suria fibre....no need to do anything, already draw 70% on value of the project on progress paymment.
Some more all payment are settle in china....how sure r u jaks interest is really secure and protected leh ??
2.4. The vietnam and china govt has always have an uneasy relationship...what if the dispute escalate leh ??
2.5. People is looking at green energy and here u r...with a coal power plant project....what if the vietnam govt slap it with a carbon tax leh ????

3.0 KYY kena force sell....what if another teething problem.......jaks will fall below rm 0.40 loh....!!
Like warren buffet says, do not bet your farmhouse on this dubious project and inefficient management, it is very toxic loh....!!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-14 08:14 | Report Abuse

I noticed the bitcoin promoter hilang liao after the price crash WAKAKAKAKA