Posted by Bursalearner > 2018-04-24 16:02 | Report Abuse

@teoct with hindsight n HY at 7.82 today, do you still stick to your analysis and methodology to evaluate HY? thks


Hengyuan - what next II (update)
Author: teoct | Publish date: Sun, 7 Jan 2018, 04:20 PM

A 50% discount to the average would give 9.8 to 11.6, so the 9.2 (20 years PE range) is fair.
24/04/2018 16:01

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-24 16:07 | Report Abuse

Your valuation is severely flawed.

Posted by teoct > 2018-04-24 17:38 | Report Abuse

Bursalearner - base on the historical figures that was my conclusion. But the market (now) do not think so. So I really do not know.

3iii - which part? Comparing with Nestle, Dutch Lady, Aji or halving the PER? Please explain so that I can understand, thank you.

I have never invested in refinery before but drawn to it last year, 2017. And up till now still trying to understand why market behave the way it did. It sure is a complex business (high capex with wild fluctuation in revenue) and since they are people doing it, it must be profitable, otherwise why do it, there are so many other businesses one can do that is less complex and have a steady income with predictable profit.

Maybe we human just like to take risk, the more riskier the more kick.