Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-21 12:40 | Report Abuse

what happened to shale?

Posted by value88 > 2018-07-21 12:51 | Report Abuse

How about shale oil from US. I suppose it can fill up the gap from Venezuela low production and Iran sanction, no ?

Posted by teoct > 2018-07-21 14:21 | Report Abuse

US shale oil production from jan17 to mar18 increased by 1.1 mbpd. USA is now the largest oil producer at 11 mbpd. Venezuela in the same period reduced by about 0.6 mbpd. The increase in demand is 99.7-98 = 1.7 mbpd. So shale increase 1.1 less 0.6 = 0.5 mbpd is still less than 1.7 mbpd of increase demand. One can argue that the demand is less than 1.7 mbpd. OK even at 1 mbpd, still shale oil cannot cover the increase in demand.

And now at Permian (Texas shale oil acreage), the pipelines have reached full capacity, thus shale oil production at this (most prolific) area will be capped (estimated until end 2019). Other shale areas are limited.

That is why, storage is being used up.

I will try to provide some information on companies in the oil sphere next few weeks.

Have a good weekend.

Posted by teoct > 2018-07-21 16:08 | Report Abuse

BTW, the table on demand and supply has included shale oil (booked under North America).

Posted by value88 > 2018-07-22 22:46 | Report Abuse

Thanks TeoCT for info sharing. I understood your point now. The increase in shale oil is not sufficient to cover (the decrease of output from other oil producers + increase in oil demand).
The global oil storage will be depleting and therefore oil price is expected to rise in coming future.

Posted by value88 > 2018-07-22 22:50 | Report Abuse

The risk that may disrupt oil demand is US-China trade war. The catalyst that may boost oil price is Iran sanction as it will further reduce global oil supply.