Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > 2019-04-24 08:28 | Report Abuse

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price

If we look at the technical outlook, there was a sharp drop in oil barrel price but moving averages, shougi and preseasonal factors will show that the oil price will range between the Brent 70-80 per barrel range. Of course momentum may change and the falling star(douji) may occur to bring the price down to the 50-60 range, which is within the 3 year and 52 week range. We shouldn't see anymore blitzing at 40 range anymore as this oil "war" has been costly for all involved. Of course if we look at longer term >5 years the crude oil price is on the uptake, and if we have a far right contrarianistic outlook we can project up to 100 per barrel, which will be a good beginning for the new pH government and all involved.


I project the oil barrel price to hold steady at 50-100 range, with a lookout at 40 for the short term, at 100+ in the long long (long) term. I base this on the total population of the world which is increasing, the usage of energy ( oil is still the cheapest form of generation or kWh) and the overall prospects of the industry.

Based on calculations and a report by MIT, even if all the cars in the world became electric. The energy usage will grow to undocumented levels in the next 50 years, and oil will still have it's place ( until everything gets used up).

Sorry for the satirical outplay, but I think you should put this into the too hard pile. There is no way we can be right (or wrong) in any specific prediction of the oil performance.

Many institutions and research companies have been wrong on this prediction thing smarter than you or I will be. George Soros made a lot of money in the previous oil crisis, but loss big in the next one ( as well as sold all his Google, Apple and Intel shares).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/r-soros-bet-on-devon-energy-transocean-ahead-of-oil-price-rise-2015-2

Posted by ChongHH > 2019-04-24 09:13 | Report Abuse

Hello Philip, thank you for the constructive feedback and I very much appreciate them. In fact, I would agree with you that predicting crude oil price is tough and am aware how much smarter institutions, you and fellow i3 members are compared to me. Since I was banking on the probability of further downside vs. upside reversal in Dec '18 when Brent collapsed to low $50 per barrel, I try to position myself in a mispriced crude oil company with fair balance sheet to mitigate my downside risks. Similar to you, I am a strong believer in companies with great growth prospect and management but the Canadian crude oil patch is very mispriced despite the fair growth prospects they carry. Having said that, I learnt a lot and hope to hear more from you when it is convenient and of interest to you.

Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > 2019-04-24 17:07 | Report Abuse

For me I keep it very simple. Not that I am smart or anything, but because Warren buffet started it first and it made very much sense to me. We need to blot out noise and stick to details that matter. Profits, revenues, debt, cash, assets form the quantitative. management capability, industry growth prospects, business competitive advantage, market volatility forms the qualitative.

The news that foreign investors are leaving Malaysia in droves has caused some irrationality in the market allowing me to buy good stocks at cheap prices.

The global index, stock market performance, China USA relations I'm sure is a very real thing, but it will not affect much the price of chickens I buy or the make me stop driving cars in Malaysia.

In similar fashion, a good company will still run and make money just as a bad company will continue to lose money.

In the long run, it doesn't matter how the market reacts, as long as you continue to buy good companies and keep being invested in owning those good companies.

The trick is what's to recognize when you have a temporary business problem and a permanent loss of competitive advantage.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-24 17:09 | Report Abuse

Warren buffett .....

Posted by ChongHH > 2019-04-25 10:28 | Report Abuse

Well said Philip. About driving cars, what are your thoughts on West Coast Expressway?

Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > 2019-04-25 16:54 | Report Abuse

No idea totally, I live in Sabah haha. You would probably know better than I do.