Posted by firerain > 2020-02-14 15:16 | Report Abuse

0032 bad counter for trader,but good counter for investor:)

Posted by Maxam > 2020-02-14 15:33 | Report Abuse

Part 1: Edotco, Fgv and prodata build the tower
Part 2: Maxis and umobile do CME work (with the help of Binasat and Redtone respectively) and maintenance of the tower up to 5 years using USP fund.

Possible reason why maxis/umobile given the mcmc project

1) maxis and umobile are involved in retail side of telecommunication sector. The new telecommunication towers that are going to be built can be used to strengthen their respective signal strength in that area. If this is true, this will improve the service quality of telcos especially umobile which is planning for IPO.

2) After 5 years, USP fund can't be used for maintenance of the towers. Now, maxis and umobile need to fork out money for the maintenance (remember first five year free of charge because use USP fund). Binasat and Redtone still can get recurrent income of tower maintenance even after the end of the USP contract.

This is in my opinion is a win win proposition.

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-14 16:27 | Report Abuse

just have a close look on the NFCP 1 break down..the 50 site that umobile won all located in sabah..

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-14 16:31 | Report Abuse

very high chance the works will eventually flow to redtone as umobile dont do installation and maintainance,and redtone had great presence at all the rural area in sabah and sarawak,chear advantage.

Posted by monetary > 2020-02-14 19:09 | Report Abuse

Nfcp1 290mil divided into 2parts. U mobile gets 33% of Part2. After paying for civil & mechanical works, cables & equipments U mobile outsource technical job to Redtone. Perhaps Redtone's job worths around 5mil? Hopefully nfcp2 will benefit Redtone more.

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-15 00:54 | Report Abuse

the value is actually much higher.

if u mobile outsource installation,commissioning and maintenance work..the contract value might as high as RM40-45 million.

cost to build a tower in malaysia was around RM300k,but in the case of USP project,i assume RM500k(as rural area involved higher logistic cost) ,so the tower construction portion should worth RM75 million(500k x 152),add on another RM30million(RM200k each site) for land cost,the total is estimated at RM105 million.

that means the equipment supply,installation,commissioning and maintenance(5 year) portion should worth RM185 million.

At 33%, the total value that u mobile won should around RM 60million.umobile able to purchase and supply the equipment for 50 site,which could worth RM15-20 million(assume USD75k-100k each site).

the difficult and expensive part is actually installation,optimisation and commissioning,as it involved complex technical expertise to execute..manpower cost is high as professional engineers is needed for the entire working period(12 month)..not to forgot the cost for 5 year maintenance(u mobile will outsource also)..so the portion that umobile have to outsource could worth RM40-45million.

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-15 01:18 | Report Abuse

and do not forget that,maxis will outsource all the installation and maintenance to service provider also,and binacom have the greatest chance to win contract from maxis.

however,we cant discount the possibilities that redtone might also win contract from maxis(Only for USP project),as the manpower of binacom is focus on servicing urban area,to provide service for another 102 towers in rural area(locate from johor to terengganu) might be challenging,not even mention the 5 year maintenance(how to allocate additional manpower across 7 state,with only 10-15 site per state,while remain profitable?).

in contrast to binacom,redtone is specialist in rural area,they have no issue in mobility and owned ready manpower across whole malaysia,everything is already there,thus very competitive in pricing and delivery.

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-15 01:27 | Report Abuse

however,i do not expect much from NFCP 1,even both maxis and umobile outsource all the works to redtone,the total value should not excess RM150 million.

my target is on NFCP 2 that worth RM900million-1 billion,and many more bigger project to come.

Posted by monetary > 2020-02-15 07:17 | Report Abuse

firerain. Thanks for all the infor.
1. Redtone is sub con. Out of the 40-45 mil price tag for installation, commissioning n maintenance how much will Umobile pay Redtone?
2. At what extent does Umobil outsource the installation, commissioning n maintenance work? From engineering consultancy to 100% outsourcing the price tag is very different.
3. Umobile is private co whereas Redtone is public listed co. How much of the cake does Umobile willing to share with the public.

Pls advice. Thanks in advance.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-15 14:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-15 14:54 | Report Abuse

hi monetary..the only service that umobile can provide in USP project is equipment supply..they can simply buy all the equipment needed from huawei or ericsson..but,when talking about installation,testing,network optimization,commissioning and maintenance,that is totally out of umobile expertise(in fact,all the mobile operator dont do the works by themselves,thats why we have OCK,REDTONE and BINACOM as their service provider)..so they'll outsource all the works other than equipment supply..thats for sure..just who will be picked as service provider..

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-15 15:00 | Report Abuse

thats why i feel weird that maxis and umobile had won NFCP 1,as both company will definitely outsource almost all the works to 3rd party service provider eventually..i hope MCMC or gobind singh will explain the rationale to investors..

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-15 15:09 | Report Abuse

about how much umobile willing to pay their service provder..i think you shouldn't worry much..as no service provider gonna take the jobs if it is not profitable..so there is no way umobile can keep all the profit themselves as they have to rely on 3rd party provider to deliver the project to MCMC..

Posted by monetary > 2020-02-17 06:30 | Report Abuse

Good sharing, firerain. is mcmc going to sell those towers later?

Posted by monetary > 2020-02-17 06:44 | Report Abuse

Can I assume Redtobe will have less involvement in nfcp after 2020? Most microwave infrastructures will b completed after 2020 according to nfcp plan. 2021 to 2023 is mostly fiber optic cable works in urban areas which will b carried out by binacom. Of course Redtone has plenty of maintenance works to followup but eventually binacom will eat most of the cake.

Posted by 8residence > 2020-02-17 11:16 | Report Abuse

bot 52.5....hehe....tangan gatal la....

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-17 12:23 | Report Abuse

sell towers?no,because no one would want to buy as the towers not profitable due to no enough population to support the utilization rate,thats why all towers will be funded by USP fund(go to read again what is USP fund in MCMC website if you dont understand the concept)

total investment under NFCP estimated at RM21.6 billion,and USP fund will contribute more than 50%.so,there is no such things that 2021 to 2023 will mostly fiber optic cable works in urban areas,thousands more towers is needed in rural area to achieve 98% coverage target,especially sabah and sarawak.

and one more thing,fiber optic installation and commissioning in within redtone core expertise also,pls click the link below

https://www.redtone.com/telco-engineering-services/

Posted by cicakman > 2020-02-17 13:20 | Report Abuse

Thanks firetain.
FYR coming soon.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-17 13:29 | Report Abuse

Buy on weakness

Posted by monetary > 2020-02-17 13:59 | Report Abuse

firerain has v deep understanding about redtone. his confidence in redtone is unshakeable. kudos.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-02-17 14:44 | Report Abuse

You want RM1.00 to buy food?

Just Fakk off

I will use your RM50,000,000,000.00 of "Your Money" to buy 5G handphone to watch porno movie...

Just Fakk off, ..........dun ask me to give you RM1.00 to buy food.

Posted by wafryer > 2020-02-17 14:57 | Report Abuse

505 换政府

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-17 15:18 | Report Abuse

actually i think redtone will continue to consolidate between 48-57 cen range in short term,while waiting NFCP 2 and other telco project announcement,unless coming quarter result surprise me.when i say surprise,it means Net profit must above RM9 million,then we can start to expect 60 cen and above.

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-17 15:22 | Report Abuse

so,i'll advise avoid redtone if you dont want to hold for at lease another 6 month.

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-17 15:35 | Report Abuse

for me,i still waiting for the latest result.if the result is poor due to some one-off items(easiest accounting trick to drive small investors away) and lead to sharp fall,i will add more share as the future is unbeatable.if the result is fantastic and lead to sharp rise,i'll just sit back and enjoy the show.

Posted by monetary > 2020-02-17 16:14 | Report Abuse

I m absolutely confident in ur analysis. just tat m a poor mam without much $. must wait lower price.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-17 17:11 | Report Abuse

I dumb dumb bought more redtone today

Kungfu master hng33 here means some show coming?

Last time hng33 also bought Drb at 92 sen with Calvin

Hng33 sold Drb for 20% profit but Calvin hold Drb tightly till over Rm2.70 and made 200%

So hng33

Sang Yee heng (hng) long

Means good business.

33 means doubly alive

May Redtone go to Rm1.50 quick quick

Posted by cicakman > 2020-02-17 17:26 | Report Abuse

When rocket?

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-02-17 18:18 | Report Abuse

the market go very bad soon.. i think 5g should be delay ..

Posted by sammj101286 > 2020-02-17 18:18 | Report Abuse

Take some profits in Binacom and add more Redtone at 51.5 sen

Thanks Calvin For your ChunChun(starting with binacom)

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-02-17 18:18 | Report Abuse

delay about 1-2 years

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-17 18:30 | Report Abuse

when rocket?hahaha,if coming quarter EPS more than 1.5 cen then rocket lo,otherwise have to wait until May when NFCP 2 come into play.

Posted by firerain > 2020-02-17 18:38 | Report Abuse

i wont suggest people to buy more at current price based on risk and reward,but if any big fall like what happen two weeks ago reappear,then it is good time to buy and keep for next 6 month.

Posted by sharasphuti5 > 2020-02-18 09:01 | Report Abuse

holding 30 lot redtone at 5.40

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-02-18 09:25 | Report Abuse

Just Fakk Off

not giving you RM1.00 for nasi lemak

Will spend RM50,000,000,000.00 to buy 5G handphone to watch porno video

Posted by speakup > 2020-02-18 09:43 | Report Abuse

speakup cut-loss @ 52.5
good move

Posted by speakup > 2020-02-18 09:44 | Report Abuse

from peak of 62sen, drop to 51sen means redtone play is over

Posted by forester > 2020-02-18 10:04 | Report Abuse

spur chun chun

Posted by speakup > 2020-02-18 11:26 | Report Abuse

PANIC SELLING!!!!
hahaha!

Posted by speakup > 2020-02-18 11:27 | Report Abuse

those who follow speakup cutloss are real winners

Posted by smallplayernia > 2020-02-18 11:55 | Report Abuse

no mention of NFCP at all for redtone

Posted by Maxam > 2020-02-18 15:10 | Report Abuse

You need to read between the lines...

Posted by KW0203 > 2020-02-18 15:29 | Report Abuse

Seems like repeating trend, push down before qr release???

Posted by 8residence > 2020-02-18 15:57 | Report Abuse

hmmm...menarik nie...hihi...queing at 49.5

Posted by dmksn > 2020-02-18 16:05 | Report Abuse

Chance for contra kaki reentry, chance for mid-long term holder to avg. Do remember this counter got 5G theme fundamental support.

Posted by 8residence > 2020-02-18 16:09 | Report Abuse

gulp....haha...saspen gak da dapat...

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-18 19:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-19 09:49 | Report Abuse

According to Redtone the majority of it's revenue and profit is from doing Telekom work

So although it only win a smaller portion thru Umobile in Nfcp1 we should expect better job awards from Telekom Tenders

And both Nfcp and Telekom tenders are progressive and spaced out for many multiple job awards

Nfcp1 to Nfcp7

Total 7 Nfcp job awards and more

Telekom tenders are out every month

So best course of action is not to time the market


You don't wait to buy Redtone

You buy Redtone and wait

If after buying price gets cheaper just add more

Posted by wafryer > 2020-02-19 11:00 | Report Abuse

wait luck come 5.05 lol

Posted by joyvest > 2020-02-19 14:23 | Report Abuse

Luck or FXXK ?