It's just like, "see there is a car accident", so don't drive any car to prevent the accident. Better stay at home and do nothing. Zero risk, zero return.
Source : PUBLIC BANK Stock : MFCB Price Target : 6.29 | Price Call : BUY Last Price : 5.46 | Upside/Downside : +0.83 (15.20%)
We came away from our meeting with Mega First (MFCB) last Friday with the confirmation that constructions of the Don Sahong Hydropower plant together with the transmission lines in Laos and Cambodia have been fully completed. All four turbines are fully commissioned amid the on-going dry season in Laos. The company is also escalating the process for the construction of a 5th turbine which is expected to take about 2 years. Given the softer global interest rate environment, we impute lower borrowing costs at both the operating (Don Sahong plant) and Group (MFCB) levels, which consequently lifts our SOP based TP to RM6.29 (RM5.71 previously). Outperform call is affirmed.
Selling 195MW to Cambodia. 195MW of power generated from 3 turbines is transmitted from the plant in the Champassak province to the Stung Treng electricity substation in Cambodia through the new high voltage 500kV transmission lines. The remaining 65MW will be channeled to the Ban Hat substation for domestic usage. Under the purchase agreement, the Cambodian government will buy a total of 2,900MW from Laos between 2020 and 2027, of which 500MW will come from hydropower plants at a price of 7.29 US cents/kWh and 2,400MW from coal-fired power plants for 7.70 US cents/kWh. Meanwhile, Electricite du Laos will purchase the power from the Don Sahong hydropower plant at a price of 6.15 US cents/kWh based on a “take or pay” basis.
Depending on the availability of electricity production. Though the four turbines have a combined installed capacity of 260MW/hour which can generate up to 2,000 GWh p.a., electricity production will ultimately be subject to water levels. Based on our channel checks, water levels have dropped by 10% from its normal level as the country is currently experiencing dry weather conditions until late-April. The utilization rate is expected to be lower in the coming months, averaging 76%-81%. Our assumption is based on a full-year utilization rate of 88% as electricity production could potentially hit maximum capacity during the wet period in May-Sept.
5th turbine on the way. Management has received approval-in-principle for a 5th turbine at the same site. The targeted capacity is around 50MW-65MW with an expected capex of USD50m-60m. Management plans to speed up the approval process before its EPCC contractor, Sinohydro re-mobilizes its resources elsewhere. It will be a key re-rating catalyst for the Group, potentially contributing an additional 20%-25% to the Group’s bottomline starting from 2022.
Lower borrowing costs. We cut our assumption on the finance cost by 1.5% at both the operating (Don Sahong) and Group (MFCB) levels in light of the softer interest rate environment. However, the earnings impact is relatively small as the cost saving was offset by lower earnings forecasts on the resources segment given the weak global demand. Our TP is consequently lifted to RM6.29 from RM5.71. Meanwhile, management had earlier guided that the Don Sahong project cost will be lowered from USD401m to USD366m given the lower-than-expected borrowing costs
I honestly think that @shareinvestor88 is one of the stock market guru who constantly on sell call so that he can collect. He might potentially holding huge amount of sold ticket from the sell call. He is extremely smart!!
MFCB's main business segment is building and operation of the new power plant at Laos.
MFCB's earning performance has been overall rising in last five years, whereby its earning per share overall increased from 27.5 sen to 33sen. This is reflected in current rise in the share price, outlook in next few years is promising as power plant in Laos commence operation. MFCB pays dividend consistently in the last five years, whereby dividend per share ranged from 4 to 8 sen per share. In FY2018, total dividend paid to shareholders was 4 sen per share, amounting to a dividend yield of 0.72%. Currently the P/E ratio is ~24.
LouiseS, Public Invest upgraded the tgt prices a few times premised on.2020 earnings when the Don.Sahong power plant went operation with projected eps of 50 sen. The forward looking PE is 11 instead of 24 of past earnings. The other attraction.is the projected dividend of 30 sen which will.give a dividend yield of 5.5 % at current price.
The last public.invest report highlited that the Don Sahong power plant is capable to.produce 2000GW of electricity per year. With.the average of US 0.07 per kwh , the annual revenue is rm 460 million. With the estimated earning of 250 million, the gross margin is 54%.With full conversion of warrants in April , the total number of shares is 474 million which will give an eps of 53 sen. .With estimated eps of 5.sen from the resource and property division.and another 8 sen from the5th turbine project, the total eps will be about 66sen.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
limcs
157 posts
Posted by limcs > 2020-01-13 09:19 | Report Abuse
关键性的辽国--柬埔寨500KV输电网工程如期完工,为2020年1月7日的两国首次电网接通输电打下了坚固的基础。
1月7日下午5时顺利的把电流输送到柬埔寨后,美佳第一(MFCB,3069)持有80%股份的东萨宏水电站内一片欢呼声,
在场的两国能源部官员与工程师们拍手庆祝,大家都知道这一天来之不易。
官员们分别在两地举行了简单的祭拜仪式,感谢上天保佑水电站在经历了超过15年的策划与建设,终于顺利供电。
美佳第一发展的东萨宏水电站因为地理位置与优越的地形及水资源丰富关系,从一开始就受到了各个利益集团的关注,在种种方面不断的提出反对,但最终还是过关斩将,把这个助力辽国成为“东南亚蓄电池”的关键发电站完美竣工。
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