The fundamentals are ok, just the charts don't look good. I will reenter at a reasonable price. HSR, ECRL, MRT3, etc is just put on hold temporarily. Gkent has a good track record of securing projects and they have a healthy financial book to overcome whatever short term challenges.
The other *G company (won't mention names less ppl accuse me of promoting other counters) has better short term prospects.
The HSR and MRT3 have been scrapped while terms of the ECRL are being renegotiated and LRT3 has been downsized. We believe MRT2 may be the next project to be subjected to cost reduction. A new deadline of 4 Aug to conclude SPLASH deal has been set by the new government and we are optimistic towards the near term settlement. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector. Maintain HOLD and raise TP for both GKent and MRCB after adding back LRT3 NPV contribution. Maintain BUY with higher TP for Taliworks after adding back receivables owed by SPLASH.
Review of mega projects. Post GE14, the new Pakatan Harapan (PH) government has embarked on a review of all mega projects, as promised in its manifesto. HSR (RM60-70bn) and MRT3 (RM40bn) were shelved shortly thereafter. Although there were reports regarding revival of these projects, we reckon that chances are slim in the near term. ECRL has been suspended pending further renegotiation which is expected to be conducted during the Finance Minister’s visit to China at the end of this month. LRT3 has been approved to continue at a reduced total cost of RM16.63bn and cost rationalisation measures such as extension of construction timeline from 2020 to 2024 and restructuring of project from PDP model to a “fixed price contract”.
MRT2 next? We opine that next mega project that is likely to undertake cost-cutting measures is MRT2 (RM32bn). Listed companies that are expecting to be negatively affected are Gamuda and MMC (PDP role and underground package of RM15.5bn), Ahmad Zaki (2 work packages amounted to RM1.7bn), IJM (RM1.5bn viaduct package), Suncon (3 work packages amounted to RM1.5bn), GKent (RM1bn track works), WCT (2 work packages amounted to RM1.1bn) and Gadang (RM952m viaduct package).
2H18 job flows. In 1H18, domestic contract awards to listed contractors totalled RM8.7bn, decreasing 18% YoY. We expect a slowing in job flows in 2H following downsizing of mega projects, with 2018 contract awards to end at RM15bn, a steep decline from 2017 (RM29bn) and 2016 (RM56bn).
Toll abolishment. In its election manifesto, PH also promised to review all highway concession agreements, taking over every toll concession with the ultimate aim of abolishing highway tolls in stages. Up till now no decision has been made by the new government. We opine that a full toll abolishment without fair compensation scenario is unlikely as this will spook investor confidence which may affect funding for future infrastructure development plan.
Water deal. A new deadline of 4 Aug to conclude the SPLASH deal has been set by the new Minister of Water, Land and Natural Resources and assurance has been given that the issue would be settled before the new deadline. Major beneficiaries from settlement of the deal are Gamuda and KPS via 40% and 30% stake in SPLASH respectively and Taliworks via the recovery of RM638m receivables (as at 31 March 2018) owed by SPLASH. Besides, pipe manufacturers such as Engtex, Hiap Teck, Choo Bee and YLI may benefit from rollout of pipe-replacement projects in order to curb Non-Revenue Water (NRW) problem post SPLASH deal.
Maintain NEUTRAL. Maintain NEUTRAL on construction post changes in federal government and scrapping of mega projects. The domestic construction industry landscape is expected to remain challenging and we do not expect a significant improvement in near term. Nonetheless, high order book levels (average cover ratio of 4.9x) following the robust job flows in the past 2 years should help sustain construction earnings amid subdued near term industry prospects. Stock Call Changes LRT3 PDP Role (GKent & MRCB)
Since the total project cost of LRT3 has been halved (from RM31.65bn to RM16.63bn), we assume the PDP fee contribution from the project will reduce correspondingly. Although the project has been restructured to ‘fixed price contract’ model, we opine that our assumption of fee reduction is consistent with the new model as the model is part of cost-cutting measures. As such, we cut GKent FY19-21 earnings by 9.5%, 14.5% and 23.6% respectively. For MRCB, we cut FY18-20 earnings by 10.0%, 11.2% and 15.2% respectively. Despite the earnings cut, we raise GKent’s TP to RM1.27 (from RM1.17) and MRCB’s TP to RM0.65 (from RM0.63) after adding back the LRT3 NPV contribution into their respective SOP valuation. We opine that our previous bear case scenario of no LRT3 contribution to SOP may have been too conservative following last week’s announcement that the project will continue amid a scaled down basis. Maintain HOLD for both GKent and MRCB.
when 1.90 many people rush in to buy...why sell now? still cheap...can hold for longer time. coming QR will announce dividends, according to dividends policy
(KUALA LUMPUR Bernama) - penganalisis Hong Leong Investment Bank Research menunjukkan, MRT Laluan 2 (MRT2) dijangka menjadi sasaran seterusnya pengecilan, apabila kesan bahan beberapa syarikat tersenarai, penganalisis mengekalkan medan Kedudukan pelaburan "neutral" .
Dengan pejabat kerajaan yang baru, Longxin High Speed Rail dan MRT Route 3 telah dibatalkan, sementara Railway Coast East (ECRL, atau Rail East) adalah klausa rundingan semula.
Bagi LRT3, ia sedang dikurangkan oleh kerajaan baru untuk menjimatkan kos. Penganalisis percaya bahawa MRT2 dengan nilai keseluruhan RM32 bilion mungkin menjadi target seterusnya bagi kerajaan untuk mengurangkan kos.
Jika ia adalah benar-benar untuk MRT2 "memotong" syarikat tersenarai terbabit, termasuk Gamuda (GAMUDA, 5398, saham-saham pembinaan board), Ma Mining (MMCCORP, 2194, Lembaga Perdagangan dan saham perkhidmatan), IJM (IJM, 3336, lembaga Unit pembinaan), bangunan Sunway (SUNCON, 5263, saham-saham pembinaan board), George Kent (GKENT, 3204, saham-saham pembinaan board), WCT Holdings (WCT, 9679, saham-saham pembinaan board) dan Garden Avenue (Gadang, 9261, seni bina motherboard Saham).
Pada separuh pertama tahun ini, kontrak domestik yang diberikan kepada syarikat tersenarai berjumlah RM8.7 bilion, penurunan tahunan sebanyak 18%.
Memandang ke hadapan, penganalisis dijangka kontrak tersebut akan mengalir ke mana perlahan, kerana beberapa projek-projek besar adalah pengecilan, anugerah kontrak tahun ini dijangka harga kepada RM15 bilion, yang kurang daripada itu 29 bilion ringgit pada tahun lepas.
Sukar untuk menghapuskan sepenuhnya caj saluran
Penganalisis mengekalkan penarafan pelaburan "Neutral" di lapangan, dan prospek sektor pembinaan domestik dijangka terus mencabar dan tidak akan ada peningkatan yang ketara dalam jangka pendek.
Nasib baik, aliran kontrak yang berkembang pesat sejak dua tahun lalu dijangka menyokong keuntungan bersih saham pembinaan.
Di samping itu, kerajaan baru juga menyebut dalam deklarasi pilihan raya umum bahawa ia akan mengkaji semua kontrak francais avenue dengan tujuan untuk menghapuskan caj saluran dalam fasa. Walau bagaimanapun, belum ada perkembangan baru setakat ini.
"Kami percaya bahawa tidak mungkin pembatalan menyeluruh terhadap bayaran avenue akan dibuat tanpa pampasan yang berpatutan, kerana ini akan menimbulkan keyakinan pelabur dan seterusnya memberi kesan kepada pembiayaan pembangunan infrastruktur masa depan."
Jika Bekalan Air Xuezhou menyelesaikan pemenang terbesar Dafa Langsang
Sebaliknya, Menteri Air, Tanah dan Sumber Asli, Seville berkata, masalah bekalan air di Selangor akan diselesaikan pada 4 Ogos.
Penganalisis berkata jika berjaya diselesaikan, penerima utama akan menjadi Gamuda dan Bo Langsang Group (KPS, 5843, Lembaga Perdagangan dan saham perkhidmatan), kerana kedua-dua telah diadakan oleh Syarikat Negeri Selangor Water (SPLASH) 40 % dan ekuiti 30%.
Di samping itu, Dali (TALIWRK, 8524, Perkhidmatan Perdagangan Utama) juga dijangka pulih daripada penghutang 638 juta ringgit daripada SPLASH.
Bukan itu sahaja, pengeluar paip, seperti Yong Pacific Group (Engtex, 5056, Lembaga Perdagangan dan saham perkhidmatan), Persatuan Jerman (HIAPTEK, 5072, Lembaga Perdagangan dan saham perkhidmatan), Amerika Syarikat bersama-sama (CHOOBEE, 5797, lembaga stok barangan perusahaan) dan Kesatuan Industri (YLI, 7014, produk industri utama) juga boleh mendapat manfaat daripada projek penggantian paip air.
GK likely to consolidate downward to find support at lower level but it will definitely to retest the recent high of RM1.47. Please take note that for the last 3 sessions it had done about volume of 100 Millions with price range of RM1.40- RM1.47 which mean that investors whose had bought & had not liquidate yet stand high changes of incuring paper loss.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Witty
462 posts
Posted by Witty > 2018-07-17 16:48 | Report Abuse
Haha. Its ok la. Got up got down.
Luckily run in morning.
Wait for best price in again la.