Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 16:11 | Report Abuse

Plus and thus NSE is going to reduce toll rate by 18%...and the toll rate of WCE is fixed at so much higher than the existing NSE toll rate of 13.96 cents per km, the NSE toll rate would be 11.4 cents after 18 % discount.

Earlier on, it was reported that WCE toll rate would follow that of NSE but now it turned out that WCE toll rate per km would be 35% higher on per km basis..

What would be the impacts on the traffic flow?
Would there be diversion of traffic from NSE for the long haul, be it North bound from JB and the South Or South bound from Penang and the North?

Posted by zhm540 > 2020-01-16 16:23 | Report Abuse

toll is one thing but if you can save fuel by going short distance, it is more that make up for the higher tolls.

Posted by Felicity > 2020-01-16 16:33 | Report Abuse

extended PLUS term is a win for WCE

Posted by hohoho123 > 2020-01-16 16:40 | Report Abuse

The WCE is also unlikely to be a target of the government’s plan to buy back highways, said West Coast Expressways Holdings CEO Datuk Neoh Soon Hiong. This is given that the government appears to be focusing takeover attention upon completed highways, and there are sufficient clauses in the concession agreement to protect WCE if a situation for a takeover arises, the report noted

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 16:47 | Report Abuse

But the toll rate reduction of 18 % by Plus is no good to WCE. The concession period is reduced to 44 years instead of the original 50 + 10.

WCE has no more competitive advantage though there are 2 stretches of a total 83 Km toll free sections built by the government.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 17:07 | Report Abuse

The distance is shorter from Taiping to Bukit Raja via WCE, it is about 248km while that via NSE is about 272km. Only a difference of 24 km.

The toll fee on NSE On class 1 vehicles would be about rm31 whereas via WCE is about rm 29 (take Kampong Lekir to Bruas, 45km toll fee of rm7.9, gives a toll rate of 17.55 cent per km). So traffic from the Greater KL or the Klang Valley will take NSE..

Heavy Vehicles from port to port would ply WCE. Class 1 vehicles on the long haul would prefer to travel on NSE.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 17:11 | Report Abuse

I think the 83 Km toll free competitive advantage of WCE against NSE, is taken away purposely to protect diversion of traffic from NSE to WCE.

Posted by benykp > 2020-01-16 17:13 | Report Abuse

.. Xyz.. +... -.. .. It will hit 0.40 above easily.... 6 months time.... Still 0.385 ? After toll collection for CNY... Raya...? ... Que sera sera... Calculated risks..

Posted by Felicity > 2020-01-16 17:13 | Report Abuse

short term P&L will be affected, but cashflow will not be affected. the extension of 20 years for PLUS is good as there will be a toll competitor until 2058, which means there will not be a free alternative until that year.
WCE will still attract its own crowd unless PLUS is totally free. small difference in pricing will not deter drivers, as either has its own users, unless a good free alternative.
All in all, it is better for WCE and PLUS. Not good for the ones expecting free highways. Anyway, there will not be a free highway as it was a promise which could not be fulfilled. We know that.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 17:27 | Report Abuse

It will take much longer time for WCE to build the traffic to sustain. Only those living along the coastal areas would take wce, there would not be traffic diversion from NSE except heavy vehicles, I believe.

Posted by Felicity > 2020-01-16 17:29 | Report Abuse

That has been the case anyway

Posted by Felicity > 2020-01-16 17:30 | Report Abuse

It depends on traffic as well not just pricing

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-16 17:33 | Report Abuse

small veh use NSE at lower rate. heavy veh use WCE at higher rate. isn't it a good planing? 35% higher toll rate with 6yr shorter concession period (not taking extension into consideration). In business sense it's most welcomed, right? Who doesn't want to earn money faster? Don't forget wcehb has 3bil loan to service. Finance cost 17.3 mil in the latest qr n keep increasing.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 17:37 | Report Abuse

Wce loan is rm 4.74 B
Construction cost RM6. 69 B

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-16 17:38 | Report Abuse

the gov doesn't say no extension of concession period. Just tat the gov doesn't promise another 10yr extension. U think too much, bro. We got our victory today n let's toast.

Posted by Felicity > 2020-01-16 17:38 | Report Abuse

assuming the minimum IRR is maintained, it is a win.

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-16 17:41 | Report Abuse

according to latest qr wce borrowing is 3.05bil not taking bank balance n deposit into account.

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-16 17:43 | Report Abuse

I m sure the dcf analysis with the adjusted input will give higher TP.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 17:44 | Report Abuse

Only worry the traffic would not be able to sustain interest payments.. there will be higher amortisation since the concession period is shortened to 44 years from 50 years.

Tolls for short distance travel by the local folks who are financially no so well of, become much more higher. Would they choose to travel on the new WCE tolled roads or stick back to the toll free old roads?

Posted by Felicity > 2020-01-16 17:46 | Report Abuse

The additional 20 years PLUS tolling will provide the interest payment.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 17:49 | Report Abuse

Total construction cost upon completion estimated at rm 6.69B, 80% loan is rm5.35B. Wcesb so far obtained total loan amounting to RM4. 74B

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-16 17:52 | Report Abuse

amortisation is just accounting procedure

Posted by Felicity > 2020-01-16 17:56 | Report Abuse

All in all it is a win, I would rather take a PLUS competitor managed by Khazanah than a Maju.

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-16 17:56 | Report Abuse

doesn't cost physical $. 6yrs shorter not much effect.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 17:59 | Report Abuse

Government came out with a " win-win" for both WCE and PLUS... I suppose.. However, without light vehicles diversion from NSE, and the local folks would probably shun away from the high toll rate tolled roads, it will take a long time for wcesb to breakeven..

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-16 18:04 | Report Abuse

This fake accountant is not fake after all. He is smart! Heavy veh will cause wear n tear at faster rate so divert them to WCE. The maintenance cost of NSE will b lower without heavy veh & sustainable at lower toll rate. Anyway he is fair enough to offer WCE higher toll rate amid higher maintenance cost. He is truely a CHARTERED accountant!

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-16 18:19 | Report Abuse

WCE would be a tolled Road for long haul heavy vehicles plying from port to port. NSE would be much more pleasant to travel for the public.

Posted by Daily8 > 2020-01-16 21:32 | Report Abuse

1.50 wcehb is in the making. Don’t forget to top up !

Posted by Daily8 > 2020-01-16 22:37 | Report Abuse

Maju Holding Abu Sahid got bitter because gov don’t want to sell PLUS & called Khazanah Shahril stupid

Posted by Daily8 > 2020-01-16 22:39 | Report Abuse

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/01/16/youre-a-liar-tycoon-blasts-khazanahs-shahril-after-decision-to-keep-plus/

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-17 09:16 | Report Abuse

can break 0.4?

Posted by nuTECH2018 > 2020-01-17 10:05 | Report Abuse

Wait it break up and put in ur watch list...

Posted by Chun Loke Low > 2020-01-17 10:06 | Report Abuse

Son no power

Posted by mrstrong > 2020-01-17 10:09 | Report Abuse

good buy below 0.4, double bottom.

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-17 13:11 | Report Abuse

It's more likely a triple top @0.4

Posted by monetary > 2020-01-17 13:58 | Report Abuse

no more good news. it will b dull n boring. keep in freezer.

Posted by Daily8 > 2020-01-17 15:27 | Report Abuse

Hold onto wcehb. Will NOT DISAPPOINT U!

Posted by Godofgambler > 2020-01-17 15:27 | Report Abuse

Mati ayam?

Posted by Daily8 > 2020-01-17 15:27 | Report Abuse

Mati ayam also will be alive!

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-17 15:38 | Report Abuse

QR in Feb will be a bomb...and subsequent QR will be in RED...
Taken profits.
Good Luck.

Posted by Daily8 > 2020-01-17 15:51 | Report Abuse

Not this round. The news of wcehb is much bigger than the losses!
Triple bottom will be broken!

Posted by zhm540 > 2020-01-17 16:01 | Report Abuse

yup...achieved triple bottom already meaning the bulls are coming!

Posted by Daily8 > 2020-01-17 16:05 | Report Abuse

Have to use far sightedness sometimes!

Posted by hohoho123 > 2020-01-17 18:00 | Report Abuse

before sell ......60 years concession!

Huat

after sold : beware

Posted by hohoho123 > 2020-01-17 18:01 | Report Abuse

bangsa roti canai

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-17 18:29 | Report Abuse

1. No more 60 years concession, only 44 years now
2. No more competitive advantage to NSE due to the 2 stretches total 83 Km toll free, built by the govt as the toll rate is 53% higher as compared to NSE (17.55 cents per km vs 11. 44 cents per km). Toll fees via WCE and NSE on the long haul is now more or less the same. No diversion of traffic from NSE to WCE.
3. Tolls are relatively expensive for those local folks who need to commute daily. Most likely they will minimise travelling via the tolled road.

Traffic volume in doubt.

Interest payments for the rm4. 74 billion ++ loan is about Rm300 millions per annum..

When there is a change in the fundamentals or assumptions made, stay out.

When in doubt, stay out.

Good Luck.

Posted by benykp > 2020-01-17 20:30 | Report Abuse

Uptrending... U sold... Made profit and wished us good luck.
Thank you.
Time will tell...

Posted by uptrending > 2020-01-17 21:33 | Report Abuse

I sold and I told, some more with mentions of my doubts. I could be wrong.
In stock market, there is no right and no wrong especially when facing with uncertainties.
Just be a gentleman.
No need to be bitter if someone made money, sold and got out.

Good luck.

Posted by benykp > 2020-01-17 21:46 | Report Abuse

Not bitter... Also made money... Let's see how it goes...

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2020-01-17 22:37 | Report Abuse

Much easier to drive via WCE than NSE to Taiping.
The menora tunnel area is windy.