Pang72, My working for the $6.6 mil per km per concession year paid by ALR is certainly included the compensation arrears owed by government . We all don’t know how much was that portion. In any case , highway tolling concession agreements had always been favoring the concessionaire in a big way . Moreso, WCE shall enjoy robust traffic .
The West Coast Expressway is expected to transform the tourism landscape in Perak and further make it accessible to domestic and international tourists in conjunction with Visit Perak Year 2024.
Another crude method I adopt to estimate the worth of WCE is based on cumulative NPAT over 38 years which is the remaining years for the first 50 years concession. ( pls note : concession for 50 starting 2013, + 10 years if ROI is not met)
Toll collection FY 2025 = $984 mil + Non toll revenue. = $246 mil Total revenue FY2025 $1.230 bil (Toll / non toll revenue 80/20 basis per PLUS experience) Assuming 5% growth in toll/revenue (lower than PLUS) Assuming EBITDA margins 83% ( same as PLUS) Assuming interest rate 5 % Assuming discount rate of 5% (matching to revenue/ profit growth of 5% )
Cumulative revenue (38 years) at PRESENT VALUES = $1.23 bil x 38 years = $46.74 bil EBITDA (base on 83%) =. $38.79 bil Interest expense cumulative $5.5 bil Dep/Amortisation $6.8 bil PBT Cumm. (38.79 -5.5 - 6.8). = $26.49 bil @ tax 27% , NPAT = $19.34 bil NPAT attribute to shareholders of WCEHB is $19.34 x80% = $15.47 bil Please note that NPAT is cumulative and at present value. No of share after full subscription of warrant is 3.5 bil Estimated valuation is $15.47/3.5 bil share = $4.42/ share . That’s about the price government will have to compensate if privatizating WCE.
Great Upside potential: toll rate increase every 3 years permitted under concession agreement, higher traffic growth than 5 % , etc
Above for general discussion only —————————————————--
My basis of toll collection from 2025 posted earlier : Felix of WCE recently estimated 300,000 daily road users once the expressway is fully completed next year. Assuming this man on the job is realistic on his numbers, we shall make a guess of the WCE's revenue for FY 2025. For simplicity, let's use present Plus toll rate Taiping to Bukit Raja (klang) as equivalent to WCE full stretch (Taiping - Banting): Class 1 (passenger 2-axle car) $30.42 Class 2 (2 axle truck) $55.50 Class 3 (3 or more axles truck) $74.10 Class 4 (taxi) $15.17 Class 5 (buses) $22.80 Assuming composition of vehicle classes is (70/10/10/5/5), the weighted average toll rate for full stretch is therefore $36.15 per user or $0.155 per user per km ($36.15/233km) We will have users travelling long and short haul. Let's assume, the average distance travelled per user is 1/4 of the full stretch ( 233/4 =58 km only)
Toll revenue FY 2025 = 300,000 daily users x 365 days x 58km x $0.155 = $984 millions !
Johnzhang, Concession agreement of this express highway = 50 years after completion. The agreement could be extended 10 more years if the stated IRR does not meet.
Concession agreement of this express highway = 50 years after completion. You should not use 40 years.
Zhuge, You may read the attached NST news link of 2018. The minister said that the concession start from 2013, the year agreement was inked , not after completion. Had there been any change?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
albertyek
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Posted by albertyek > 2023-07-18 11:44 | Report Abuse
yelah cannot fulfil quota then meroyan like babies