To "bulls", don't disappointed didn't touch 70c today. Minggu depan high chance. kena sabar sikit. To "bears", don't disappointed no sell down today. Harap dapat buy back if sold earlier. Counter establishing new base for go to next level...
Edge,sya pun dah lupa nama dia,dia short seller,smua thread pun dia masuk kacau ,rasa2 dia sdh kna basuh cukup2,ha ha,sdh lama dia x muncul,sdh tenggelam kot
Saya setuju dgn u 100%, better get it or buy more, sebelum PNB, EPF dll masuk...dia org bukan bodoh...boleh hidu peluang. Better help spread news to fellow investor, friends, relatives etc...better buy before too late. Bila dia org masuk, price boleh lonjat dgn amt cepat.
@Creszz - thank you. @Michael Kwok - if you still in this forum, let us know if you have any (different) views from last time ya. Or maybe now u go long, become bullish.
Pang - i see you good in calculations. able share indicative value and share price. u very humble to call others sifu. By any chance you related to one of the major shareholders of wce? haha :))
in 2022 ALR paid the following generous amount to take over the soon to be expired highway concessions (let's omit Smart in the discussion) : $1.19 bil for Kesas , 57.5 km concession expiring 2023(1 year left from 2022) $2.21 bil for LDP, 40km concession expiring 2030 (8 years left from 2022) $863 mil for Sprint ,26.5 km , concession expiring 2031/2034 (avg 10 years left) Total sum paid for 3 highways = $4,263 mil Total length for 3 highways = 124 km Remaining concession live (weighted avg basis) = 5.2 years only ! (Note ; once concession expire, no toll would be collected)
Let's factor in the distance and concession remaining live into the equation : ALR paid $4,263 mils for 124 km and for 5.2 years concession, ie $6.6 mil per km per concession year !
WCE is 233 km and remaining concession is 40+10 years (concession runs from 2013, 10 years lost!) . How much should it potentially worth ??
Felix of WCE recently estimated 300,000 daily road users once the expressway is fully completed next year. Assuming this man on the job is realistic on his numbers, we shall make a guess of the WCE's revenue for FY 2025. For simplicity, let's use present Plus toll rate Taiping to Bukit Raja (klang) as equivalent to WCE full stretch (Taiping - Banting): Class 1 (passenger 2-axle car) $30.42 Class 2 (2 axle truck) $55.50 Class 3 (3 or more axles truck) $74.10 Class 4 (taxi) $15.17 Class 5 (buses) $22.80 Assuming composition of vehicle classes is (70/10/10/5/5), the weighted average toll rate for full stretch is therefore $36.15 per user or $0.155 per user per km ($36.15/233km) We will have users travelling long and short haul. Let's assume, the average distance travelled per user is 1/4 of the full stretch ( 233/4 =58 km only)
Toll revenue FY 2025 = 300,000 daily users x 365 days x 58km x $0.155 = $984 millions ! Operation cost before interest $200 mil/year ?? Interest expense (4% x 5bil ) $200 mil/year ?? That means, WCE will be profitable right from 1st year of highway fully opened.
To build a similar highway in 2023 would probably cost twice the amount of wce ,factoring into rampant inflation last 3 yrs.The cost of wce is RM8 bil.Replacement cost would probably by 12 bil or more.Land acquisition costs would hv multiplied too.
Pang, can not calculate like that lah . But I like your calculation. Hahaha For such generous price ALR offered to acquire the soon expired concession, it may means that toll business in Malaysia is very profitable.
—————————————————— Pang72 wrote: Thanks John for additional point. With $6.6 mil per km per concession year, WCE worth 6.6x233x50= rm76, 890mils.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
wahidul
261 posts
Posted by wahidul > 2023-07-07 16:23 | Report Abuse
I’ll be satisfied with any closing above 68 today,given the poor mkt condition