Cpo up, share price not go up 17/05/2021 3:32 PM X danny123 All d lumber company lose money 17/05/2021 3:33 PM X danny123 Estate not well manage 17/05/2021 3:35 PM
Through all its changing years Jtiasa lowest was in year 2008 at 45 sen & highest at Rm3.38 in 2012 4 years later
If a Value Investor had bought at bottom 45 sen & sold at peak Rm3.38 4 years later would have garnished a 650% gain in 4 years or 162% a yearly gain of 4 years
To buy at deep pessimism and sell at peak euphoria is the TOP SECRET OF SUCCESS!
Just wondering why Calvin so hard sale on Jtiasa, It is zero sum game in share market where buy/sell happen at the same time. For sure he has numbers of share of Jtiasa which bought at pretty bottom and need people together to boost the share price for selling high.
Don' get me wrong, I was just wondering Calvin motive, but I do agree on the commodity price will stay high for some period. I just like KFIMA much more than this relatively speculated counter. I was bought quite numbers of KFIMA since 1.4 since last year while Jtiasa buy sell as below....
World economies can open with a push of a button. But oil palm production takes time to recover. Even with more labour, it doesn’t mean production can miraculously increase overnight. Hence, for the coming year, the CPO supply will always play catch up. Don’t forget Indonesia decision to gradual change to export refined oil will push CPO higher too.
Investment in palmoil listed companies got many tier offensive & defensive stategy mah!
Offensive
1. benefit from high oil price reap huge profit improvement, strong cash flow generation and strong and healthy balance sheet
2. Strong dividend will be forthcoming.
3. The govt of indonesia & msia have restricted new palmoil plantation development thus limited future plantation supply in the future which is good as it will lend support to its price loh!
Defensive
1. Land has a finite supply which is a good hedge against inflation
2. Currently plantation trade at a deep undervalue thus give big margin of safety for investor loh!
3. The current of hype of ESG trend which is unsustainable....give a good sound contrarian opportunity for a very strong rebound & upside for plantation going fwd loh!
What are the positive factors favoring the oil palm industry especially the upstream oil palm companies with huge amount of oil pal estates:
1. RM to USD is > RM4.15++ (Oil palm export proceeds in USD will bring back more RM to their kitty).
2. Good CPO price > RM4.5K/ton to RM5.0K/ton ++. (Same efforts, but selling at extremely good prices. Laughing all the way to the bank).
3. Most raw materials & costs of productions are sourced locally in RM including fertilizers as Malaysia has a strong resource-based economies as Malaysia has been in oil palm industry business for more than 50-60 years and so almost everything is local.
4. Upstream oil palm business is simple & no need for a Rocket Scientist to teach. Follow the basics, follow SOp & get them right.
5. For gold, steel, etc, closing stocks are based on purchasers from suppliers of them. (So, you realize when the gold, steels, etc are very high in prices, high profits are reported & when their closing stocks are high - Quantity x Closing Stock Price Valuation).
6. For oil palm estates, the closing stocks are on the trees & keep on harvesting from its own sources (oil palm estates), so no need to buy unless you are skewed more towards CPO extraction milling & trading. Keep producing, harvesting & get more values from the trees.
7. So, for the same efforts, for the same marginal increase in costs (fertilisers & labour), the operating profits generated as explained in above are 1.5 fold,2 folds, 2.5 folds, etc.
8. I sit comfortable with my simple business model analysis with oil palm industry & the oil palm companies I invest in for long term (LT) & know that I will reap from my patience & be rewarded.
though the share price fluctuate up and down with CPO price, i think as long the price is above 3.8k for CPO, its crazy profits. Just wait for the debt to be pay off, timber back in full operation or worst management propose privatisation.
Question: if the plantation is under harvest for many qtrs, would the quality and quantity of coming quarters be much much better, like body recovery? any palm oil planting expert here?
I was also surprised to see a higher FFB 72,202 metric tons reported by Jayatiasa this month...very nice.
I expect the see a very strong financial result in the upcoming Q result, and foreseen some strongly fundamental plantation companies would start issue special dividends...haha..just my views.
Brent crude oil was trading at US$86 (about RM357.59) per barrel, while crude palm oil closed at an all-time high on Wednesday with the benchmark palm oil contract for January 2022 rising by RM127 to RM5,071 a tonne.
My extrapolation ofJtiasa's EPS based on production figures with a conservative average selling prices of CPO,Palm Kernel and log for the month of July,August and September works out to be between RM 0.036 and RM 0.039.
No, proposal to renew authority to buy back shares is something that is renewed annually (you can check all the old bursa announcements to verify) so its really nothing to shout about.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
danny123
1,218 posts
Posted by danny123 > 2021-10-15 09:52 | Report Abuse
danny123 Bad management will still continue to gamble away company money.
A gamble will never stop to gambling