Calvin, now jtiasa is in diff territory. During CPO bull run, jtiasa showing this kind of results. How high u expect CPO to achieve? As expensive as gold?
you cannot apply this kind of half past six analysis comparing two completely different businesses. JTIASA = pure planter of CPO, IOI is integrated upstream and downstream from planting to oleochemicals and specialty fats.
IOI's plantation results were solid, +50% operating margin. Most of their CPO is sold as feedstock to their downstream segments, which cannot pass on the increased feedstock prices to buyers, hence profitability was dragged by the downstream.
What was JTIASA's operating margin (palm oil only)? Less than 30%. That tells you all you need to know about their ability to manage palm oil estates. I've said it before, they need to sweat their assets more.
JTIASA missed the golden opportunity of once in a lifetime bull CPO market. Every other planter that is semi competent at running their plantations is reporting 2x - 3x profit. This joker can barely sustain y-o-y performance. Thats all.
With short of labor and record low harvest, they generate 47mm free cash flow. finance cost of 8mm, net would be 39mm if maintained for 4 qtrs, thats 160mm free cash flow (on the back of mere 656mm debt)
Let's see if production ramp up in coming months with labour inflow.
That is exactly why more than 95% of market players lose money. They are followers and not leaders. They are always playing contra and chasing stocks in play regardless of the price valuation. In the present market sentiment in Bursa, most counters are dropping daily so why complain about JTIASA here. Plenty of stocks to buy so go to other counters that you feel have better prospects. So easy, no need to moan and groan and talk 3 talk 4 here. Won't make a difference to the share price even if you did buy. Only the big boys can move share prices.
@ calvintaneng. That is correct. Those chasing high flyers are burnt if they are dabbling in ATAIMS. Today, limit down. So, chasing shares above their price valuation is commiting suicide. Buy at bargain prices and hold. This strategy only requires patience. Of course if it pays dividend like BPLANT and TAANN even better, cheers.
All oil palm companies have their own other specialties beside the main oil palm core business.
If FCPO & CPO market prices are good (>3,500.00/ton) & total all-in costs (Mother of all Costs) in producing the CPO is 2,000.00/ton to 2,500.00/ton including tax, tax, etc, the pretty margin of 1,000.00/ton to 1,500.00/ton is excellent profit/money to them.
The share price already so low.... how to underperform?? PE of 6 or 7 is considered underperform? kekeke go see other counters fry until mother cant recognize but profit how much?? not even positive...
This not about JTIASA but the whole market sentiment that is dying due to Turtle Egg gomen screwing up. With green horn Finance Minister pluck from CIMB to run the country sure die loh. They don't have any ideas to spur the economy and share market but announced foolish new requirements that will increase the cost of trading. So, this is what is happening. Open your eyes and see the whole market sentiment and talk less nonsense here.
When there are ppl willing to share what they know and contribute what they have and dare to share what they have in mind, shouldn't we appreciate? But on the other hand, there are mockers have nothing to contribute but to keep teasing those who willing to share, in the end no one is willing to contribute is this what we want?
We are dealing with an industry that feed 8 billion people across the planet.
The global market for Palm Oil estimated at US$42.8 Billion in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of US$57.2 Billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 5% over the analysis period. Palm oil is a very productive crop. It offers a far greater yield at a lower cost of production than other vegetable oils. Global production of and demand for palm oil is increasing rapidly
The global production of palm oil was around 75 million metric tons in the marketing year 2020/21, at par from approximately 76 million metric tons in 2019/2020. In that period, Indonesia and Malaysia were the leading exporters of palm oil worldwide. Indonesia accounted for 57% of this (43 million tonnes), and Malaysia produced 27% (22 million tonnes).
The biggest consumers of palm oil are India, the European Union, and China, with the three consuming nearly 50% of world exports.
Palm Oil yields 4-10 times more oil per hectare than other sources of vegetable oil such as soybeans or coconut palms. This makes it an efficient and profitable use of land. The economic value of palm oil translates into jobs, infrastructure and tax revenues. The palm oil yield per hectare is estimated at 8 tons per year at most. Additionally, the profit farmers make per hectare is around 3.4 tons per year. So it’s a good business if managed properly..
All of us know that plantation share traded at huge discount to its historical PE valuation, despite reporting earth shattering record profit due to very strong record cpo prices, but bcos of ESG concern( that are actually unfounded} the mkt is ignoring palmoil stock loh!
Thus as a savvy investors, we need to be Contraian & rational loh! If funds ignore palmoil stock, thus we can pick it up as a bargain as its fundamental are good investment mah!
Contraian Investor will enjoy good earnings & strong dividends which is the main basic fundamental of all investment in share mah!
Just think logically lah....u actually invest in stock for income mah....not really invest bcos of ESG lah!
Even if u r the minority who invest base on ESG as a sole criteria, if the investment do not generate good return in the long run, u r still screwed mah!
Palmoil is a food & and industrial product....the most efficient vege oil & fats input in the world mah!
Suppose u do not use palm oil & use soya oil instead as an alternative....u need to plant 8x more land to produce the equivalent palmoil mah!
But then soya oil will have even more ESG concern than palmoil mah!
Just imagine At the end, the world wil be paying more for vege oil & fats at the same time degrade the environment even more loh!
Thus it is only logical that the ESG concern on palmoil stock are unfounded given they are no better alternative for better oil & fats thus palmoil is still the best mah!
Thus rationally if u invest in palmoil stock u are protected the ESG, bcos it is the most efficient, at the same time u earn super decent dividend mah!
Furthermore u r well protected from inflation bcos plantation is a proxy of investing in cheap land...a very scarce resources mah! in this world loh!
Unless u want to migrate to MARS to find new land loh!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
brianklc
1,624 posts
Posted by brianklc > 2021-11-24 23:29 | Report Abuse
They bet against the market.