shpg22, volume were low for years. Very easy to push the price up, and buy and sell between each others to create fake volume to attrack retailer/gambler. When retailer/gambler come it, they let go their holdings. UEM only have about 12m shares. Yesterday volume was about 100m.
goldensnow. i won't touch this counter at least for a week. But it's just my own risk assessment. I earned enough return for this counter and quit yesterday. Will come back after price stabilise for medium and long term perspective.
I know its easy to push up, but they need to buy high in order to push up. Don't think will attract enough buyer in one day??
shpg22, volume were low for years. Very easy to push the price up, and buy and sell between each others to create fake volume to attrack retailer/gambler. When retailer/gambler come it, they let go their holdings. UEM only have about 12m shares. Yesterday volume was about 100m.
shpg22, 10million shares trading is just about rm1.5m. Look at yesterday graph. Sudden shoot from 10cents to 18cents. Small volume during the price climb. They only need to buy and sell within their team to create volume. Let say team A buy 10m units at 18 cents each, from team B. What is the cost for them? only stamp and fees. When trader come in, they disposed their shares which was 7cents last week at 18cents to trader. By then, both team A and team B disposing their holding. That's how sindicate doing their work. I doubt you don't aware about this style.
If you look pass beyond the share price movement and the speculative rumours, you will see that KTB is just another loss-making company. The last time it managed to irk in a small quarterly profit was back in 3Q15. 4Q18 marks the 13th consecutive quarterly losses for the company. FY18 core losses is around -RM23mil (excluding the RM13mil loss on disposal of ppe).
However, the bigger issue for the company at the moment is its weak balance sheet. Excluding the goodwill, the NTA of the company is actually a negative of -RM35.3mil or -8.8 sens per share. The company has also a current ratio of only 0.5x (current liabilities is higher than current assets) which means it might potentially face with liquidity issues in the near term. The company might need to raise some capital soon.
If you are looking to hedge your portfolio outside of KTB (due to its weak earnings outlook and weak balance sheet), I would recommend you to look at MBMR. (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp)
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.7x PE based on FY18 profit of RM166mil. PB is low at only 0.7x BV.
FY19 should deliver another profit growth year to the company. Profit growth will again be driven by the performance of Perodua (via MBMR 22.6% holdings in Perodua) from the still strong sales of new Myvi, sales of SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza sometime in the 2H19. Aruz which commands a higher margin compared to other models, will help improve the total profit margin of Perodua (which will flow to MBMR’s bottom line as well).
MBMR is expected to achieve a profit of RM200mil in 2019. At the current share price, the company is being valued at only 5.6x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x PE. As an example, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
TheMask
27 posts
Posted by TheMask > 2019-04-02 09:36 | Report Abuse
all cabut liao